506
FXUS63 KGLD 172340
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
540 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for sub-severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain warm with highs in the 90s
  through much of the work week. We may see a cool down next
  weekend.

- There is a chance for more widespread storms Monday afternoon
  and evening. A few storms may become severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Late morning and early afternoon observations showed generally clear
skies across the area underneath broad surface low pressure.
Temperatures should peak in the 90s with dewpoints remaining
generally in the 50s and 60s. While surface dewpoints remain a bit
elevated, model guidance soundings suggest that a fair amount of dry
air remains in place through most of the air column. Mid-level water
vapor imagery loosely supports this with warmer temperatures noted
over the area. That being said, there should still be enough
moisture for storms to form, especially with convergence boundaries
in the area. The most pronounced boundary is along the Colorado
border where northwest winds are moving into south/southwesterly
winds. With the surface low not forecast to shift much, this should
be the main focus for storms development. Current forecasts suggest
the environment will have around 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but have
mid-level lapse rates below 8.5 C/km and 0-6km shear around 20-30
kts. With this, pulse storms seem to be the most likely outcome.
Given the overall low support for hail, weak flow, and DCAPE around
1400 J/kg or less, severe weather seem unlikely with hail up to .75
inches and wind gusts around 40-50 mph more likely. Can`t rule out a
severe storm, especially if storms form along a second potential
convergence boundary over the eastern portion of the area (just east
of Highway 83). This boundary looks to be more from a speed
difference with winds lowering from around 15-20 mph to 5-10 mph
from the south. If storms fire along this boundary, the shear is
forecast to be worse (less than 20 kts) and likely only allow for
pulse storms. MUCAPE is forecast to be closer to 3000 J/kg or a bit
higher which could allow a storm to produce hail to around an inch,
but mid level lapse rates less than 8 C/km will probably help keep
most hail below an inch.

The storms should dissipate through the evening hours as winds
weaken and any additional shortwaves slide north of the area. That
being said, any lingering outflow boundaries may be able to spark
storms as we likely wouldn`t lose any of our elevated instability
unless a storms remains over an area. Those in the absence of storms
should see light winds with lows generally in the 60s. Where storms
go, there could be gusts around 40-50 mph and small hail with lows
in the 60s or 70s.

For Monday, the pattern is forecast to slightly change as the upper
ridge is forecast to try and reset up over the Rockies and begin
amplifying. This would limit the chance for upstream shortwaves and
is forecast to develop more surface high pressure along the Front
Range. For the area, this is forecast to lead to little change early
in the day with temperatures warming into the 90s underneath sunny
skies and with the surface low lingering over the area.

During the afternoon and evening hours Monday, storms are forecast
to fire up in Eastern Colorado where a convergence zone is forecast
to form on the backside of the surface low. There is the possibility
that storms could fire up in Northwest Kansas if the center of the
low form south of the area and drapes another convergence zone on
the north side. Regardless of where storms form, the current
environment is forecast to be marginally unstable again with MUCAPE
around 2000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 9 C/km. Wind shear
is forecast to be around 20-30 kts again, but could be closer to 30
kts which may allow some storms to sustain themselves early before
they cluster. With this, there is a low chance for large hail
initially, followed by wind gusts around 50-65 mph. The low should
begin to diffuse out and shift out of the area going into the evening
hours, but storms could continue with outflow boundaries in the area
from prior storms. In any case, the severe threat should lower
through the evening and early overnight hours with storms ending
shortly after midnight with the forecast calling for higher surface
pressure to set in and some upper subsidence from the ridge. Once
the storms clear the area, winds should become light and variable
for the night with temperatures dropping down into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Tue-Fri continue to be forecast to be fairly hot with the upper
ridge amplified over the Rocky Mountains. Daily high temperatures
are forecast to be in the 90s with mostly sunny skies each day.
Winds are forecast to be fairly light as the flow through much of
the air column is expected to be weak. Winds are forecast to
generally remain below 20 mph. There are still small chances for
storms each day, but generally around or below 15% as the amplified
ridge is forecast to keep most of the shortwaves north of the area.
The chances for storms stem from us keeping dewpoints in the 50s and
60s, with no signs of a drier air mass at this time.

Going into the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to move through
the Plains and Great Lakes region around Fri/Sat. There`s still
plenty of variability in how much it extends into the Plains, but in
almost all scenarios it should push a cold front through the area.
When the front moves through, the area will have a good chance for
showers and storms, likely Friday based on the current guidance.
Once the front passes, we could have a couple of days with high
temperatures in the 80s and maybe some 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

A majority of the TAF period will be characterized by VFR
conditions and variable winds. The one aside will be the
potential for interruptions from a shower/thunderstorm.

For this evening, any activity looks to be isolated enough such
that we`ll keep KGLD/KMCK TAFs clear and monitor satellite/radar
for amendments, especially given meager trends up to this point.
On Monday, clusters of showers and thunderstorms should develop
across east Colorado and then move into Kansas; have leaned in
that direction with a PROB30 TSRA at KGLD starting at 21z. A
mention may become necessary at KMCK a tad later.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Satterwhite