094
FXUS63 KGLD 120725
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
125 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal chance of seeing severe storms in Greeley and
  Wichita counties this evening.

- Breezy conditions this morning; winds will weaken in the
  midday and afternoon.

- Additional storms and rain possible tomorrow evening and
  overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

This morning, temperatures will to cool to around 50. Before a high
will be moving into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley as a low moves
out of the northern Rockies. This will lead to southerly winds to be
gusting 30-40 kts during the morning hours. Much like yesterday,
winds will be weakening in the midday and afternoon hours. There is
a low-end fire weather threat for eastern Colorado again, but RH
values look to largely remain above critical thresholds.

During the morning hours, we could see a weak surface convergence
zone moving across the eastern half of the CWA. This could produce
enough lift for some light showers to form.

Around 0Z this evening and into the overnight hours, a fast moving
500 mb shortwave trough and a slow moving surface low look to move
over the region. These features will be enough forcing to cause some
weak storms to fire. The bulk of the storms look to remain south of
the CWA. Most likely impacts would be hail of 0.5-1 inch, 40-60 MPH
gusts, and brief torrential rainfall. Greeley and Wichita counties
have the best chance at seeing severe weather, and all convection
looks to remain south of I-70. Peak timing for storms will be
between 0-6Z.

Once the storms clear out, temperatures look to cool into the mid
50s to mid 60s. Warmer temperatures in the eastern CWA are expected
as the slow moving surface low pushes additional moisture into the
CWA. This will likely lead to some stratus and potentially some fog
Saturday morning.

Saturday, a high from the northern Rockies looks to push a backdoor
cold front into the CWA, allowing northeasterly winds to gust into
the 25-35 kts range during the morning, gradually weakening
throughout the afternoon. RH values look to remain above critical
levels, so fire weather concerns are minimal. Similar to Friday, a
shortwave trough looks to start some storms in the southern CWA
during the early evening. Once again severe weather looks to not be
a major threat. Highs are forecast to warm into the 80s.

Overnight Saturday, a 500 mb high pushing northeast from the Four
Corners region will cause vorticity across the lateral middle of the
CONUS. This looks to be enough forcing to cause overnight showers
that last into Sunday morning. We could see some isolated rumbles of
thunder, but this seems to be more of a stratiform precipitation
event, if it does occur. Lows look to cool into the upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Sat-Sun: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over
the the weekend. Guidance suggests that a relatively
cooler/drier airmass will advect southward into the Tri-State
Area in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night will help confine
precip/convection south and east of the Goodland CWA. Expect dry
conditions with highs ~80-90F on Sat and much cooler temps
~70-75F on Sun.

Mon-Tue: Long range guidance indicates a transition to NNW to
NW flow aloft early next week.. on the eastern periphery of an
amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast.
Precip/convection is possible, depending on the timing/track of
shortwave energy in NNW to NW flow aloft. Temperatures and wind
speed/direction will also highly depend upon the timing/track of
shortwave energy and associated clipper lows.

Wed-Thu: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned
ridge will shift eastward across the 4-Corners, central-southern
Rockies and Central/Southern Plains around mid-week, suggesting
a warming trend and below average precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
KGLD and KMCK. KMCK overnight may see some patches of smoke from
fires in western Nebraska, but impacts to flight categories are
not expected. Winds from the south will be picking up just
after sunrise and will slightly favor a southwesterly flow, but
will be right around the 180-190 degree mark. Between 0-5Z, KGLD
may see some showers and storms to the south of the airport.
Winds at both sites will be weakening around this time, too.

Around and beyond 6Z Saturday morning, stratus may move into
the region, leading to degraded ceilings, as well as LLWS.
However, confidence is not overly high in these things
occurring.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA