657
FXUS63 KGLD 111633
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1033 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions in the Flagler area this
  afternoon.

- Near critical fire weather conditions across much of
  Cheyenne/Kit Carson counties in Colorado Wednesday afternoon.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
  anticipated for much of the area, primarily west of Highway
  83.

- An intense low pressure system will bring strong northwest
  winds to the region on Friday. Gusts over 60 mph are forecast
  generally along and west of Highway 27 during the day. Winds
  of this magnitude may create dangerous travel conditions,
  especially on east-west oriented roads such as I-70.

- Rain and snow will accompany the low pressure system Friday
  through Friday night. At this time, little if any snowfall
  accumulation is forecast.

- Near critical fire weather conditions (wind and relative
  humidity) are forecast for locations generally east of Highway
  27 Saturday. The expected precipitation Friday may prevent
  rapid fire growth due to wet soil conditions.

- Near critical fire weather conditions (wind and relative
  humidity) are forecast Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon
  along and west of Highway 27. The expected precipitation
  Friday may prevent rapid fire growth due to wet soil
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Today-tonight...latest guidance continues to indicate that the
flow aloft backs to the southwest late in the day and through the
night, ahead of an approaching upper level trough from the
southwest. There will be an increase in cloudiness but no
precipitation. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 65 to 70
degree range with low temperatures in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...as the upper trough axis moves across
the area during the day, cloudiness associated with it decreases
from west to east. A clear to mostly clear sky is forecast
overnight. High temperatures are forecast to rise into the middle
60s to lower 70s with low temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday...southerly to southwesterly winds gusting in the 30 to 40
mph range are forecast as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
an approaching upper level trough. Locally developed blowing
dust/dust storm parameters are not favorable for blowing dust,
primarily due to winds in the 0.5-1km layer being well below the
needed criteria of at least ~45kts. Other parameters such as 0-2km
and 2-2.5km lapse rates are favorable however. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

We are looking at another very windy system moving through the area
in the long-term, with Friday seeing the highest winds.

Late Thursday night through Saturday mid-day, our next major trough
will be sweeping through. At 850 mb Friday, a large portion of the
central CONUS has winds in the 50-65 kts range. This increases the
potential of gusts of the same magnitude reaching the surface. A
caveat is where ever the center of the low is during the afternoon
hours (peak heating), they will likely only see gusts around 30-40
kts. Deterministic and ensemble guidance reflect this potential and
can be seen in the gridded forecast: the eastern CWA has gusts
limited to around 30 kts during the day, increasing to around 35 kts
overnight, while the western CWA has gusts over 50 kts. The NBM,
CONSALL, and GFS all show this distribution. While a gradient like
this is expected, the placement of the gradient will likely change
from what is currently shown. Case in point, over the past 48 hours,
the CMC-NH, GFS and some GEFS members have been shifting this
gradient eastward. The current gradient shows gusts around 35 kts in
Colby, KS and 55 kts in Burlington, CO. The current runs of the
ECMWF, GFS, and CMC-NH are aligning more than they had been with the
timing and general placement of the low, increasing confidence in
placement of the highest winds. There is about 75-80% confidence
part of the CWA will see gusts of at least 50 kts, potentially up to
65 kts. There is about 50% confidence locations between highways 34
and 40 along and west of highway 27 will see the highest winds.

The associated cold front will cause precipitation Friday. We know
precipitation will occur, and we know all of the area has a pretty
good chance (at least 50%) at receiving some precipitation. The P-
type, and QPF amounts are details we`re still trying to tease out.
Looking at 300K, it appears the low from earlier in the week will
mildly inhibit moisture return to the High Plains. The 300K flow
shows a lot of moisture flowing into eastern Kansas and into
Nebraska. The eastern portions of the CWA will see some of this
direct moisture flow, however majority of our moisture will need to
be wrapped around the Friday low to impact the western CWA. This
will limit our precipitation chances and amounts ahead of the cold
front, but keeps PoPs high for cold sector precipitation later in
the day and overnight. The current path of the low travels across
the southern half of the CWA, allowing more precipitation to fall in
the northern CWA. The dominant P-type is still in question for this
event, but generally we can expect rain during the day and early
afternoon. In the late afternoon, snow will likely mix in,
especially in areas of high precipitation rates. Overnight, snow
will dominate as temperatures cool.

Potential hazards with this system are still pretty numerous. We are
70-80% certain high winds will occur. If the low comes through a few
hours earlier and the wet bulb temperatures are able to drop to
freezing for most of the day, we could see at least brief whiteout
conditions. Based on current guidance and last week`s system, the
potential for a blizzard is only around 5-10%, but brief whiteout
conditions during the day are about 30%. If the low is a little
slower, the high winds will impact areas farther east, patchy
blowing dust becomes more of a concern, and our chances for
thunderstorms would increase to around 30-40%. There is not a large
amount of moisture available for this system to tap into, so we are
not expecting widespread deep snowfall. There is about a 10% chance
a snowband could form which would produce up to half a foot of snow.

In either scenario, during the afternoon and early evening hours,
there is a chance (30-40%) of visibility reductions from blowing
snow or dirt. Overnight, the potential for blowing dirt is
effectively 0, but blowing snow would likely occur where snow
continues falling.

As the cold front passes through the area, winds will abruptly
become northwesterly and speed up. There is a low chance (~10%) we
could see a haboob from this sudden wind change. Some of the factors
that play against a haboob is the high likelihood of precipitation;
all of the area has a 50% chance to see precipitation with locations
along and north of highway 40 seeing at least 65 PoPs. Locations
that see rain before the FROPA would minimize if not eliminate their
blowing dust potential. Locations that see snow but no rain may
still experience blowing dust, but the lapse rates would not be the
most favorable. Speaking of lapse rates, the GFS shows near surface
lapse rates of 9-10 C/km ahead of the front, where the winds will be
lighter, and around 5-6 C/km behind the front, where the strong
winds are. The CMC-NH shows 0-2 km lapse rates around 9.5 C/km
before and after the FROPA. Both the GFS and CMC-NH have a mild
inversion around the 2.5 km height. The GFS`s lapse rates could
allow a brief blowing dust potential with the FROPA, but the dust
would soon calm. The CMC-NH is the concerning model that could lead
to a haboob if there is little/no precipitation ahead of the front.
For reference, local research suggests low-level (0-2 km) lapse
rates should be at least 9.5 C/km to support blowing dust.

A ridge will start building in Saturday and force out any lingering
precipitation to the east by the early afternoon. Once the lingering
precipitation moves out of the area Saturday, we will remain dry for
the rest of the weekend. This should also trigger a gradual warming
trend over the weekend. Sunday and Monday, we are looking at RH
values dropping back into the low to mid teens with gusts around 15-
25 kts, giving us some concern for fire weather conditions these
days.

We are looking at another system moving in during the ear to mid
week next week, so stay tuned for information about that in the
following days.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
GFS - Global Forecast System
GEFS - GFS Ensemble Forecast System
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
CMC-NH - Canadian Meteorological Centre-Northern Hemisphere
CAA - Cold Air Advection
WAA - Warm Air Advection
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
RH  - Relative Humidity
FROPA - FROntal PAssage
C/K - Celsius/Kelvin
QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
P-type - Precipitation type
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
km - Kilometer
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area
CONUS - CONtiguous United States

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1026 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for each terminal for
this TAF period. A surface high is forecast to nudge into the
area leading leading to varying wind directions across the
region. A surface trough will then move in from the west this
evening bringing a wind shift to the WSW and period of slightly
breezier winds around 12 knots for KGLD. As the trough moves off
winds will then again become more northwesterly during the
morning hours Wednesday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg