227
FXUS63 KGLD 281742
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1142 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms should form after 2 PM MT over the west
  half of the forecast area. Main threat is wind gusts of 70
  MPH.

- Dry lightning may lead to an increased fire risk this
  afternoon/evening for counties along the CO border.

- Potentially severe storms are expected on Sunday, mainly in
  the late afternoon and evening hours west of Highway 83.

- Storm chances continue into the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows the jet stream over the Northern
CONUS with an upper level short wave trough over the Central Plains.
At the surface a weak cold front extended from Eastern South Dakota
southwest across Nebraska, then extended west into Southeast
Wyoming.  A dry line over Eastern Colorado extended northeast into
Nebraska to near the cold front.  Morning satellite imagery shows
cloud development along the cold front over Nebraska into South
Dakota.

For the afternoon am expecting the cloud development to progress
southwest along the surface convergence of the cold front then the
dry line.  Despite little instability to work with, isolated
thunderstorms should start to form after 2 PM MT over Eastern CO
along the dry line as an upper level short wave trough deepens
overhead.  The dry line should not move much at all today, so any
eastward progression of storm activity will be the result of new
development along outflow boundaries, and aid from the deepening
short wave trough overhead. These storms will be similar to
yesterday, being high based around 10k ft AGL, and move slowly
unless they are riding an outflow boundary.  During the late
afternoon effective shear will increase to around 30 kts as storm
activity merges together.  For two to three hours (4pm - 7pm MT)
storms will become the most organized/intense before the environment
begins to stabilize. Nickel to quarter size hail will be the largest
size anticipated from these storms; the main threat will be wind
gusts up to 70 MPH. Straight-line winds will become more of a
threat when the storms resemble a line.

By this evening storm activity may be moving into KS and NE. However
as the storms do they will be moving out from under the upper level
short wave trough.  In addition, heating from the day will be
ending, causing the environment to become more stable. This will
cause storm activity to decline and end as the sun sets.

Most model data coming in is not showing a storm complex in
Nebraska moving south into the eastern part of the forecast area
late tonight. The upper level pattern does not seem supportive
of storm development, showing subsidence to our east.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A weak shortwave ridge axis will lead to hotter and drier
conditions on Saturday across the area with daytime highs
running a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the mid to upper
90s. Although moisture will be very limited on Saturday, enough
instability should be in place to support isolated weak
thunderstorm activity along the Kansas/Colorado border. These
storms will not have much rainfall associated with them, but
they will have the potential to produce some dry lightning
strikes. With winds gusting over 25 mph from the south in the
afternoon hours, there could be some increased fire concerns due
to the dry lightning strike threat. This threat will quickly
end after sunset as temperatures start to cool off and the weak
storms come to an end.

The overall pattern across the country will become more
amplified on Sunday with a strong longwave ridge building over
the western third of the nation. A fairly decent front will
slide through the area on Sunday, and this will bring another
round of thunderstorms back to the area. Thunderstorm coverage
will be highest this day due to the increased forcing along the
front, and a few of the storms will likely turn severe with
damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threat.
Temperatures will be near average in Nebraska and Colorado, but
should still be in the mid 90s south of I-70 as the front is not
expected to move through this portion of the forecast area
until the evening hours.

Deep layer northwest flow aloft and a north to northeast flow
in the low levels on Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures
closer to average in the mid to upper 80s during the day and the
upper 50s and lower 60s at night. The easterly flow could allow
for some moisture pooling in place, but a dry line will also
develop each day in eastern Colorado. Just enough forcing should
be in place along the dry line to induce some isolated storms
in the late afternoon and early evening hours on both Monday and
Tuesday.

Wednesday should be the driest day of the week as deep layer
ridging passes directly over the region. This will allow for
ample subsidence and a strong capping inversion aloft, and this
should limit convective potential across the area. At most, a
very isolated and short-lived shower or storm could pop up along
the dry line in Colorado during the late afternoon hours.
Temperatures will also begin to warm beneath the ridge with
highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s.

The ridging will being to push to the east on Thursday and
Friday. A southwesterly flow regime will take hold aloft and
winds in the low levels will shift back to the south and
southeast. Weak lee troughing will support a stronger dry line
forming each day, and this will lead to better convective
coverage over the western third of the forecast area in the late
afternoon and evening hours each day. Temperatures will be near
or slightly above average each day, but nothing too extreme for
this time of year with readings generally remaining in the low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the timing
of storms for KGLD. New data indicates storms may move in
slightly slower than earlier anticipated. Gusty winds and
moderate to heavy rainfall (that would reduce visibility) would
be the main threats with this storm activity. Storm activity
should fade before reaching KMCK. However, can`t rule out gusty
winds moving through KMCK as storms fade; just don`t have enough
confidence in this to put a mention in the TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JTL