460
FXUS63 KGLD 132312
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated strong to marginally severe storm or two is
  possible (10-15% chance) this afternoon across northern Kit
  Carson and into Yuma county. Hail up to quarters and wind
  gusts around 55 mph are possible with the strongest storms.

- Some fog is forecast mainly east of Highway 83 Wednesday
  morning.

- A conditional threat for severe weather is forecast Wednesday
  evening mainly north of Highway 36 as a cold front moves
  through. Large hail, damaging winds, and blowing dust along
  the leading edge of the front are the main hazards.

- Continued dry conditions, above normal temperatures and breezy
  winds will foster near critical to locally critical fire
  weather conditions over portions of eastern Colorado and
  southwest Nebraska during the afternoon hours on Wednesday
  and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue May 13 2025

Mid level ridging is in place via latest RAP analysis across SW
Nebraska and NW Kansas with surface troughing in place as well
continuing breezy winds to the eastern portion of the CWA. High
temperatures for the day have come down a little bit thanks to
southeasterly winds as a surface low develops across eastern
Colorado. This is helping keep moisture in place which in
general will lead to cooler temperatures. I`m still not sure
which is better 90s and dry or mid 80s and some humidity. This
developing surface trough will also lead to the development of a
dry line across eastern Colorado this afternoon which will be
the source for some isolated to scattered storm potential across
mainly northern Kit Carson and Yuma counties. Overall not the
greatest environment in play but 1000+ j/kg of MUCAPE, steep
lapse rates and modest shear around 20-25 knots may yield some
strong to potentially marginal severe storms in this area
should storms form. The longer residency time the storms have
in the CWA would increase the severe potential as shear does
increase after 00Z as a low level jet develops but think due to
the lack of forcing storms will struggle to survive as we lose
heating around sunset. Overall lift isn`t very impressive which
is what is leading to the uncertainties with storm development
but if the dry line can sharpen up then some dry line
circulations may help initiate some storms.

Tonight, winds are forecast to remain breezy due to the low level
jet continuing keeping winds mixed so have increased overnight
low temperatures a few degrees as well. Winds however are
forecast to remain from the southeast as moisture advection
continues which brings some stratus and fog potential. Do think
stratus is more likely due to the strength of the winds again
keeping the boundary layer mixed but some localized instances
of fog can`t be ruled east of Highway 83. Have added patchy fog
into the forecast from 11Z-14Z Wednesday.

Wednesday, a surface low is forecast to be over western Kansas which
will shift the dry line further east. However there are some
guidance which does show the stratus/fog lingering around longer and
a delayed/further west low which would impact temperatures and the
location of the dryline. This will also play a role into storm
chances for Wednesday as well. With a further west low and dry line
then a storm or may be able to form along the dry line which may be
able to turn severe given very high CAPE values with the increase in
moisture and additional lift due to the low. This would also
increase severe potential during the evening along a cold front
with damaging winds and hail the primary threats especially as
it interacts with the more moist air.

An alternate scenario would be the stratus and fog dissipate quick
and the low is further east, this would eliminate any afternoon
severe threat and limit evening activity to perhaps some strong
winds with the cold front and some showers. At this time I`m
thinking this is the most likely scenario but the other option
surely can`t be ruled out. The other potential hazard for Wednesday
may be some blowing dust as the cold front moves through the area.
Very unstable lapse rates will be in place ahead of the front
along with some lower 2-2.5c/km lapse rates along the front as
well; which brings some concern for a wall of dust potential.
Some guidance also does have some high based showers or storms
which if they were to shoot out outflow from this this would
also increase the concern as well. NASASPORT 0-10cm soil
moisture continues to show low to mid 20% moisture as this was
the area that missed the rainfall from last week. The caveat to
all of this is that most guidance brings the front through the
area between 6p and 9pm CT which would severely limit any
significant blowing dust concerns. So again another conditional
hazard but something that will need to be watched. Additional
showers and storms may be possible overnight Wednesday and into
the early morning hours Thursday as the low ejects to the
northeast and additional vorticity maxes move through the area
behind the system.

High temperatures for the day as mentioned are a little iffy due to
uncertainty with the position of the low and this will also
affect winds as well as those near the center of the low would
see light and variable winds and further away from the center
would see continued breezy winds. A few hours of near critical
to potentially critical fire weather conditions remain possible
across Yuma county and into SW Nebraska with near critical
being favored due to humidity values in the low 20s currently
forecast but may be higher if the dry line sets up further west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue May 13 2025

To start the extended period, the surface low is forecast to
eject into the northern Plains. Breezy to strong winds are
forecast to continue Thursday as well in wake of the low. The
strongest winds at this time appear to be north of Interstate 70
where wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. Humidity values are
again forecast to fall into the mid to upper teens so may again
need to keep an eye for fire weather conditions but may be
dependent on how much rainfall falls to night before.

A reprieve in the wind is forecast to occur Friday as we become
semi zonal flow develops. Still on the "cooler" side of the low
high temperatures look to be near normal in the 70s across the
area and overall dry conditions forecast with no clear cut
forcing for anything seen at this time.

Saturday and into the start of the new work week a more active
pattern may develop. Deep troughing is forecast to develop across
western CONUS along with an increase in moisture from the
southeast. An increase in thunderstorm and potentially severe
potential may increase as well. However, a multitude of
variable may enhance or decrease any severe potential so will
continue to monitor this set up over the next several days. High
temperatures however do look to be more seasonable in the 70s
to low 80s across the area.

A developing low associated with the troughing is also forecast
to eject to the northeast and potentially bring in some colder
air into the area. A handful of ECMWF ensemble members brings in
some air around 10 to 13 degrees below normal which if it does
pan may bring some near freezing temperatures to NW portions of
the area. Those with agricultural or livestock interests may
want to keep an eye on upcoming forecasts and see if this trend
holds.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue May 13 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to start the period for each
terminal. Breezy southeast winds are forecast to be in place
gusting 25-30 knots for each terminal. A couple of storms may
develop across eastern Colorado this afternoon but should remain
away from the KGLD terminal but something to be aware of for
additional turbulence concerns. Fairly decent consensus in
another LLJ developing tonight so have included LLWS for each
terminal as the LLJ as of late has been stronger than what
guidance suggests. Increasing signal for low stratus and perhaps
some fog for KMCK Wednesday morning. Should winds become a
little lighter than visibilities may be lowered more than
currently forecast but either way fairly good consensus with
IFR ceilings due to low stratus with the stratus potentially
continuing through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM MDT Tue May 13 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are expected through the period with
clear skies generally below 10000ft. Main concern is for low
level wind shear with a low level jet that is forecast to
develop around 03Z and increase winds to around 30-40 kts a few
hundred feet above the surface. This should be short lived and
end before 12Z as a surface low center moves over and weakens
winds. After 12Z, winds get a bit variable until the terminal is
on the backside of the low closer to 21Z. Winds are forecast to
vary between northwest (generally during the morning) and
southwest (generally during the afternoon) with speeds around
10-15 kts and gusts around 20-25 kts. Storms may be possible
north of the terminal late in the period, but have a less than
5% chance of impacting the terminal.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the first 8-11
hours, then IFR ceilings around 500ft are forecast to develop.
Fog is also possible as continuous southeasterly flow is
forecast to allow the lower levels to saturate. Before the fog
and stratus, there is some low level wind shear forecast with a
low level jet around 30-45kts a few hundred feet above the
surface. That should start within the first few hours of the
period. Around 15-18Z, the fog and low ceilings are forecast to
burn off as a low pressure system moves over the terminal. This
is forecast to lead to winds varying generally between south and
northeast with speeds around 10 kts. At the very end of the
period, winds may become more westerly depending on how quickly
the system moves east.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK