547
FXUS63 KGLD 132249
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
449 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and warm conditions are forecast through the
  weekend with mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the
  90s and 100s.

- Low chances for storms during the late afternoon and evening
  hours return to the area through the weekend, favoring
  Eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the remainder of this afternoon, mostly sunny skies with
temperatures in the 90s are forecast for the area as an upper ridge
remains over most of the south and central United States. Winds have
picked up as a low pressure center deepens over the Northern High
Plains. With this, winds should remain from the south around 15-20
mph with gusts to 30 mph. This evening, there is a small chance for
a few showers to move off the higher terrain and into Eastern
Colorado. With the upper subsidence and slightly drier air over the
area (compared to recent weeks), the showers would struggle to move
into far Eastern Colorado and likely not move east beyond the
Colorado border. If storms did move into the area, the potential
threats would be lightning and maybe a 50-60 mph wind gust.

Tonight, a few showers from the north and west may scrape parts of
the area, but the aforementioned upper subsidence, lower moisture
availability, and the additional loss of daytime heating should keep
most of the area clear. Winds are forecast to remain around 15-20
mph through the night from the south, which should help mix the
lower atmosphere and keep temperatures in the 60s.

Tomorrow, a fairly similar day is forecast with little change in the
surface low`s positioning and strength while the upper ridge
axis is forecast to be over the are a bit more. With this and
the lower level warm air advection, high temperatures are
forecast to be a bit warmer around 100 for most of the area.
Skies are forecast to remain mostly sunny.

Tomorrow late in the afternoon and evening, the center of lower
pressure could be more over the Colorado Front Range and higher
terrain. With the upper ridge remaining broad, the surface low`s
forcing may be able to overcome the upper subsidence and give the
area a better chance for storms. Even so, overall concern remains
currently low as the drier air is forecast to be over Eastern
Colorado and inhibit how storms could maintain themselves. We also
could have anvils develop west of the area and help create a cap by
cooling temperatures late in the daytime hours, further inhibiting
storm chances. It is worth noting that there is a 20% chance that
either the moisture remains far enough west, or that storms survive
far enough east that severe weather could be possible. Large hail
would be the main threat if a strong storm could develop, though a
storm in relatively drier air could produce some strong wind gusts.

Tomorrow night, there could be a cluster or two of showers and
storms that push through the area, buoyed by either their own
outflows or from a weak MCV. Otherwise, most of the night should see
a mix of cloudy and clear skies with winds remaining from the south
at 10-15 mph. With this, temperatures should remain in the 60s and
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For Friday through Sunday, the ridge is forecast to remain the main
influence over the area with high temperatures forecast to climb to
around 100 each day. That being said, an upper trough is forecast to
push into the Western United States. This will help keep low
pressure over the High Plains, keeping the area in almost persistent
southerly flow. While the presence of the low is forecast to allow
wind gusts to reach 25-30 mph, not enough dry air is currently
forecast to move in and give us critical fire conditions with RH
generally 20%+. The upper trough`s positioning would allow some
shortwaves to move through the area and help spark some storms along
the Front Range and higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. With the
relatively dry low levels, the overall coverage and severity is
currently forecast to be on the lower side. That being said, it
would be reasonable in this setup for about one to two severe storms
each afternoon/evening, favoring Eastern Colorado.

Late Sunday through the mid part of the week, the ridge is forecast
to reform and amplify over the Rockies. After a few days in the low
to mid 90s, highs are forecast to rebound into the 100s. If the
ridge can amplify as highly as some guidance is saying, it may keep
the main northwest flow north of the area and truly keep our storm
chances below 10%. Critical fire weather conditions are not
currently forecast as both the flow may be too weak depending on how
close the ridge axis gets, and we may keep enough moisture return
from the southeast to keep dewpoints in the 30% range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Southerly
winds will subside by a few knots after sunset, but gusts up to
20 knots are still expected across the area. There is a signal
on some of the afternoon weather model guidance for a cluster of
high-based showers to move southeast into parts of southwest
Nebraska or north central Kansas late tonight, with the
potential for light to moderate rain and gusty winds. Otherwise,
the main story will be wind shear tonight as a low-level jet
develops (winds at roughly 2000 feet will be from just west of
due south at roughly 40-45 knots). This will diminish after
daybreak.

Meister

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Meister