543
FXUS63 KGLD 151119
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
419 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory through 9am CT for most locations along and
  east of Highway 83. Some slick spots due to freezing fog
  possible.

- Red Flag Warning for today for all of southwest Nebraska along
  with Yuma and Kit Carson counties in Colorado and Cheyenne,
  Rawlins and Sherman in northwest Kansas.

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Very
  dry conditions and winds gusting over 60 mph will create
  conditions favorable for explosive fire growth.

- Blowing dust may reduce air quality in eastern Colorado and
  adjacent areas on Tuesday. Low visibility due to dust plumes
  may also hinder travel.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 417 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Have removed Thomas, Logan and Wichita counties from the Dense
Fog Advisory. Winds have become more westerly advecting in
slightly drier air into the area which increased dew point
depressions and ended the dense fog threat. Freezing fog has
also been reported at the Oberlin and Norton Airports as
temperatures have fallen to freezing. Be aware of light icing
from this especially on any elevated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

An elongated surface high is located across the area leading to
light winds around 5 mph. Dense fog has developed across eastern
portions of the area where dew points remain in the low to mid 30s;
further to the west, westerly winds are bringing in drier air
leading to the edge of the fog bank around Highway 25 currently. Am
anticipating a gradual eastward shift of the fog through
sunrise. Some freezing fog still can`t be ruled out across
Norton, Graham, Sheridan and Gove counties around sunrise as
temperatures may flirt with freezing.

For today, essentially a pseudo dryline is forecast to develop
southwest to northeast across the area. A surface trough is also
forecast to nudge into the area leading to breezy south-southwest
winds around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Multiple hours of
critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. If the
dry line could shift to the north a little bit more then the
southern portion of the current Red Flag Warning could be
impacted and the conditions not occur. Have opted to upgrade the
rest of the Fire Watch to a Red Flag Warning for today. Was a
little iffy on the humidity side of things for Sherman and
Rawlins county but opted to do so due to mixing to around 3000
feet AGL where nearly all guidance was suggesting that dew
points in the upper teens to low 20s lie which should mix down
to the surface this afternoon. Did go a little warmer on
temperatures for today than the previous forecast package
closer towards the 75th percentile due to south- southwesterly
winds which does favor more of a "furnace" component. Highs are
forecast in the low 70s across the north to the low 60s across
the southeast.

Monday, another mild day is in store with most of the are forecast
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low humidity values are forecast in the
mid teens to low 20s along and west of Highway 25 to the low 30s
further east. Currently concern for fire weather is pretty low as we
are forecast to be in the axis of the surface trough. A developing
surface low across southeast Colorado may bring an hour or two of
gusts of 20-25 mph that could lead to localized critical conditions
to western portions of the Colorado counties but think the overall
threat will be rather limited due to overall weak flow in the 850
and 700 mb layers. Southeasterly winds are also forecast to be in
place which further lowers my confidence in fire concerns as
this typically keep humidity from fully falling.

Tuesday continues to be the day of concern as a multi hazard day
appears to be in store as a large trough ejects on to the Plains.
Near record to monthly record highs are possible with highs
currently forecast in the 70s to low 80s. I would not be surprised
at all if they continue to increase due to the southwesterly
"furnace winds" being in place. If the southwesterly winds could
have their full effect then high temperatures could be another 5-7
degrees warmer than forecast. Temperatures Tuesday night and into
Wednesday morning are forecast in the upper 20s to upper 30s
across the area.

Starting with the wind, a High Wind Watch has been issued for along
and west of Kansas Highway 25 confidence is around 60-70% that
wind gusts exceeding 60 mph will occur. Highest confidence is
for counties along and west of the Kansas/Colorado border
however. A 3-4 hour window where 850mb winds increase is seen
during the morning where sustained winds of 40-50 mph are
possible along with wind gusts around 65 mph. Through the
remainder of the afternoon the 850mb wind field does decrease
some but sustained winds of 30-40 mph remain possible still, the
concern for high winds comes from very deep mixing to around
10,000 feet AGL where gusts of 40-60 mph remain possible. It
can`t be ruled out that with additional cold air advection
during this time frame with an initial cold front that we would
mix even higher where 55-75 knot winds are located. Gusty to
strong winds are forecast to continue through evening as
pressure rises occurs behind a cold front with a wind shift to
the WNW. Mixing heights during the evening are forecast to be
around 1500- 2000 feet and with another round of cold air
advection wind gusts of 45-55 mph may still continue through the
evening hours with 3 hour pressure rises of 4-6mb.


The next of the multiple hazards is fire weather. With the warm
temperatures and winds talked about above one should be able to
assume that critical fire weather is a concern. The ceiling for
this event is extremely concerning for mid February standards.
A combination of near record to record highs, low dew points and
RH falling at least into the low teens and damaging wind gusts
sets the area up for a high end fire weather day. The Fire
Weather Watch has been expanded into the rest of the forecast
area as confidence continues to increase for this event
occurring. Fire weather concerns could continue as well through
the evening as winds remain strong and with limited humidity
recovery.

Dust, plumes of blowing dust due to the southwest winds are possible
during the late morning through the mid afternoon due to the
initial surge of dry air. As mixing heights increase current
thinking is that surface visibilities should improve as more of
a haze develops. A caveat to this however is if with the
initial cold front that shifts winds to the west from the north
west that a wall of dust could form. Confidence in this is
currently around 10% due to the high mixing heights and the
decrease of the 850mb wind field. Another round of dust could
occur during the evening as well with the next cold front/wind
shift. The burn scar near Heartstrong could be more of a source
region due to the northwesterly winds creating a larger fetch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Wednesday, the second punch in our 1-2 punch will be moving into the
area. In the morning hours, we get a weak 850 mb ridge to move over
the CWA, which will kick-start our southwesterly flow. around 18-0Z,
an 850 mb low will be coming out of the central Rockies and moving
east. Once this low passes through the CWA, we look to remain on the
northern side of the 250 mb jet, in a more unsettled and very
uncertain pattern.

These features causing southwesterly flow into the CWA Wednesday,
should drive temperatures into the 60s to low 70s. This will drive
RH values down into the low teens Wednesday afternoon. Winds are the
big question for Wednesday. With the current path of the 850 mb low
(along/slightly north of the KS/NE border), afternoon wind gusts
southwest of a line from Yuma, CO to Leoti, KS are forecast to gust
over 25 kts for a few hours, with areas near Flagler, CO gusting up
around 40 kts. Areas to the northeast of that line should see gusts
around 15-20 kts. It`s areas southwest of the line that we`re
worried about returning prolonged critical fire weather conditions.
Confidence in needing a Red Flag Warning for southwestern parts of
the CWA Wednesday currently sits around 50%.

If the timing of the low speeds up 6-12 hours, it will be able to
form a moderately strong LLJ of about 30-40 kts over more of the
CWA, generally locations along and south of U.S. 36. This would
allow similarly strong gusts to mix to the surface and spread the
fire weather concerns across this portion of the CWA. Confidence in
this occurring is about 20-25%.

Overnight Wednesday, temperatures look to cool into the 20s, which
should allow RH values to rebound back into the into the 50s-60s.
The NBM /NDFD show 10-20 PoPs across the northwestern CWA Wednesday
night. There looks to be plenty of forcing from 500 mb vorticity,
but there is a very dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, severely
degrading the potential of precipitation over night. If anything
falls, it would likely be some flurries.

With the 250 mb jet setting up somewhere over the CWA to south of
the CWA, there is extreme uncertainty with temperatures, RH, PoPs,
and P-type Thursday through the rest of the period. To highlight the
uncertainty, NBM 25-75 percentile maximum temperature spreads
Thursday through Sunday range from 10-15+ degrees. This spread could
be the difference from RH values being in the mid teens, leading to
critical fire weather concerns, or RH values being high enough that
would could see a few rounds of light precipitation. Additionally,
if we were to get any precipitation, this spread could be the
difference in snow or rain. This spread also explains why the NDFD
has RH values around 20% with 20-30 PoPs, and snow with near 50
degree temperatures.

There is about 70% confidence that no high-end hazards occur during
this time. However, there is a 30% chance we could see some low-end
hazards, such as critical fire weather or slick roads from wintry
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Keeping a close eye on fog for MCK this morning but is remaining
to the east of the terminal. Current TAFS are VFR for each
terminal but MCK still has a 10% chance of some visibility
reduction due to fog but am skeptical on it due to the westerly
winds. Winds are forecast to shift to the southwest and become
breezy late morning through the afternoon with gusts around
25-30 knots. Winds are then forecast to again shift this evening
becoming more variable to northwesterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain forecast for today across
western and northern portions of the area. The lower confidence
for 3 or more hours of critical conditions lies across Rawlins
and Sherman counties. Winds appear to be there but there is some
concern that dew points will not fall enough and there may be
some weak moisture advection moving up from the south that could
keep humidity values around 20%. The reason for issuance was
due to mixing heights of 3000-3500 feet AGL where nearly all
forecast soundings was suggesting dew points in the upper teens
to low 20s. Mixing this winter has been very strong even in
shallow mixing days so expectation are that this will continue
to be the case.

Humidity Monday night into Tuesday across western portions of the
area looks to remain around 45% as temperatures are not
forecast to fall out of the 40s. This sets the stage for a
concerning fire weather day Tuesday. Confidence is there that
critical fire weather conditions will occur across most if not
all of the area Tuesday but there is the potential for a high
end and dangerous fire weather day. 10 hour fuel moisture
according to the Kansas Mesonet is forecast to fall to around
10% which is representative of very dry conditions as warm and
breezy temperatures today and Monday looks to mitigate Wind
gusts of 45-65 mph are currently forecast along with sustained
winds of 25-40 mph. The strong signal for the high sustained
winds, warm temperatures and very low humidity also results in
numerous hours of extreme Grassland Fire Danger values across
the area. The concerning part of the forecast lies with the
potential for single digit humidity due to southwesterly winds,
near record to record high temperatures and wind shifts through
the day. The initial wind shift from the southwest to the west
is forecast to occur during the afternoon hours. GEFS-Mean
Spread is hinting at a delayed wind shift which would allow for
warmer than forecast temperatures that will continue to lower
humidity even more. Another wind shift is forecast during the
evening with winds becoming more northwesterly and wind gusts up
to 55 mph continuing as well. Blowing dust is also a concern
which could cause additional static driven fire starts. Limited
humidity recovery is again forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday
as lower dew points move in with RH forecast not to get above
50%. Critical fire weather is again forecast to occur Wednesday
as well.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5
    PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001-002-013.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252-253.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for COZ090>092.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5
    PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for NEZ079>081.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg