119
FXUS63 KGLD 032240
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
440 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions will persist until a cold frontal
  passage Monday evening.

- Scattered storms Monday afternoon and evening will kick off a
  period of cooler and more moist conditions through Wednesday.
  Could see snow throughout most of Wednesday, especially in
  eastern Colorado.

- Minimum temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights may drop
  into the mid to upper 20s across portions of Eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Today, A 500 mb high will start to fall apart and temperatures will
warm to around 80. Winds will largely remain north-northeasterly
becoming more easterly as the day progresses as a weak surface lows
moves off to the east. These winds will bring in some mild moisture
advection, however only the northeastern CWA looks to really benefit
in the form of slightly higher RH values. Locations along and
southwest of a line from Idalia, CO to Gove, KS look to see RH
values in the low and mid teens. Additionally, we could see
occasional gusts of 25 kts mix to the surface, leading to briefly
critical fire weather conditions in this area. There is less than a
5% chance Red Flag criteria is met as consistent critical winds are
not expected.

Northwesterly flow aloft returns and a shortwave trough coming off
the northern Rockies will give us a 10-15% chance of seeing
scattered showers forming off the Palmer Divide and decaying as they
move into the CWA. Most likely time for any precipitation would be
between 22-6Z, all falling as rain. We could see some earlier
showers form in eastern Colorado from Convective Temperatures being
hit. Overnight lows look to cool into the 40s.

Tomorrow, the 500 mb pattern becomes notably more active. In the
afternoon/evening, a Polar low near the Great Lakes will extend a
trough to the southwest, linking up with another low moving east
over the California coast. To the south, we`ll have the remnants
of the high decaying into a weak ridge. As this is happening in the
upper levels, an 850 mb low will strengthen over the CWA, dragging in
a late afternoon cold front. These features will cause widespread
vorticity Monday evening and overnight, which is the driving force
for our next decent round at precipitation.

Before the precipitation and cold front, temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s, driving RH values across the area into
the mid teens. Fire weather threats are still low as winds are
forecast to remain under 20 kts ahead of the front. However,
occasional gusts up around 25 kts may occur, leading to isolated
briefly critical fire weather conditions.

The cold front is currently expected to enter the CWA from the
north/northeast around 20-22Z, but has been trending faster over the
past 24 hours. The cold front will bring a little bit of additional
moisture into the area, which will start the northwest to southeast
moving wave of precipitation. Around the same time, some high based
storms may form in eastern Colorado and move east, started mainly
from the 500 mb features. Instability and shear looks low-end
marginal to support severe weather. Most likely threats from these
storms would be 0.5-1 inch hail and 40-55 MPH winds, along with
lightning striking ahead of the precipitation (fire threat). The
strongest storms look to occur between 20-02Z, becoming more
stratiform after this time.

Monday night, temperatures look to cool into the 30s across most of
the area. The stratiform precipitation is expected to persist on and
off through the night. Embedded storms are possible, but there is
basically no threat of severe weather in the overnight hours. There
is a 10-15% chance some snow could mix in early Tuesday morning in
the northwestern CWA, but no impacts or accumulation are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

***Synopsis***

High amplitude, positively tilted troughing in the upper levels
looks to lie just to the west of the forecast area Tuesday morning.
At the same time, northerly surface winds will be in place after the
passage of a cold front, in addition to a broad convergence zone
across Kansas associated with a slow-moving surface low in Colorado.
Ensemble guidance favors this pattern to last through Wednesday
evening when the troughing moves off to the east and a split flow
develops across the West Coast. Consequentially, northwesterly flow
is forecast to overspread the area aloft starting Thursday, lasting
through the end of the period. Current guidance suggests that this
pattern may persist through the end of the forecast period.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

As troughing moves across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and
northerly surface flow remains, cooler conditions appear favored.
High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-40s to mid-50s,
and low-40s to low-50s respectively. Additionally, the convergence
zone across Kansas looks to produce precipitation across the CWA
both days. NBM 48 hour precipitation guidance suggests around a 50-
70% chance for greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation across
portions of Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest
Kansas between Tuesday and Wednesday. This activity does not appear
to be convective, as LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater
for less than 100 J/kg of CAPE (instability) to be present. Rather,
this activity is favored to be driven synoptically by low-level
convergence, mid-level warming, and incoming cyclonic motion aloft.
As temperatures cool both nights, rain may transition into snow,
most particularly in counties along the Eastern Colorado Border
where below freezing temperatures may be experienced overnight. Lows
are currently forecast in the upper-20s to mid-30s Tuesday, and mid-
20s to lower-30s Wednesday. There is reason to believe that
Wednesday`s low temperatures may be lower than the current forecast
due to cool, wet, and cloudy conditions during the day, and
cloud cover clearing overnight. NBM 25th percentile low
temperatures across much of Eastern Colorado are in the
lower-20s both days. Confidence is increasing that a Freeze
Watch will be needed, at around 30-50% both days.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ensemble guidance indicates that northwesterly flow will persist
through the end of the forecast period. Several embedded shortwave
systems will have the opportunity to impact the forecast area during
this time. Current forecast guidance suggests that warmer conditions
are favored to return, with highs in the low to mid-70s across most
of the region Thursday, Friday, and Sunday, and upper-70s to lower-
80s Saturday. A couple of shortwave systems on Thursday and Friday
may be associated with showers. LREF guidance suggests as high as a
40% chance for greater than 100 J/kg of CAPE across portions of
Eastern Colorado both days, whereas NBM suggests around a 20% chance
or less for all locations in the CWA for greater than 0.01 inches of
rainfall from these showers. A stronger shortwave may produce
slightly stronger, more widespread showers on Saturday, with LREF
showing up to a 40% chance for more than 200 J/kg of CAPE, and up to
a 20% chance from the NBM that greater than 0.1 inches of rain
occurs. Still, light rain from this system seems to be the most
likely scenario. Chances for showers may continue on Sunday from
embedded shortwave activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 437 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
KGLD and KMCK. Winds this evening will remain somewhat variable
gusting up around 10-15 kts until the nocturnal inversion sets
up. Once the inversion sets up, winds will weaken and go from
southeasterly to westerly overnight. Around sunrise, winds will
pick up again and northwesterly winds will dominate ahead of a
cold front. A cold front tomorrow afternoon will bring in
north-northeasterly winds that are forecast to gust around 20-35
kts. We are also expecting showers and a couple of storms to
move into the region tomorrow afternoon, which may impact the
airports. Additionally, Monday night, less than VFR ceilings are
possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA