631
FXUS63 KGLD 222335
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong to severe storm or two may wander into western
  portions of the forecast area this evening capable of hail up
  to quarter size and wind gusts around 55 mph.

- A 5-10% chance for severe hail exists Friday morning through
  10 am CT mainly east of Highway 25. Hail up to ping pong ball
  size is possible.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible across most of the area
  Friday afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered
  thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging
  winds and perhaps a tornado are expected.

- Another round of severe storms is forecast Friday night into
  Saturday morning across the area. The primary hazard is hail
  up to 2 inches.

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Some severe
  storms will be possible, but confidence in details such as
  location, intensity and timing are low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Spotty showers have developed across the northeast portion of the
area on the right entrance region of a 500mb jet streak and a subtle
700mb FGEN boundary. Am anticipating this to continue to move
east into north central Kansas/south central Nebraska as we head
through the afternoon hours. Cumulus has begun to develop along
the axis of a surface trough ahead of another subtle shortwave
moving off of the Rockies. This will be the focus as we head
through the afternoon and evening hours as the better coverage
of storms west of the area may try to wander into the western
portions of the area after 00Z. There may be some strong to
severe risk with them with hail to quarters and 55 mph wind
gusts but think they should be in the weakening stage as we lose
diurnal heating.

Winds for the day with be less breezy due to a lack of pressure
gradients and an overall weak wind field in place, with the
exception being eastern Colorado due to the trough which may lead to
some gusts around 20-25 mph. Winds will then shift to the southeast
late this afternoon and begin advecting in moisture into the area.
There is 5-10% chance that this may aid in continuing the above
mentioned storm chances further east. As the moisture advection
continues low stratus does look to develop along with some fog; at
this time thinking fog will be less of an issue as winds are
forecast to be breezy gusting to around 25 mph which should help
keep the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent significant
visibility reductions.

Friday morning, rain chances especially across the east are forecast
around 30-40% as I do have confidence that some showers or storms
will develop with isentropic ascent in place in the 315K level and a
shortwave moving across the area seen in the 700 and 500mb flow. The
question will be if these will be severe or not. The RAP has the
relative better environment for severe weather with 1000-1500
j/kg of MUCAPE, steep lapse rates around 8.0 c/km and wind shear
around 40 knots which combined would be supportive of severe
hail up to around ping pong ball size. The NAM on the other hand
is similar with the exception being the MUCAPE isn`t as high
around 700-1000 j/kg which would be more supportive of hail up
to quarter size should the higher end of the CAPE spectrum be
realized. Should storms occur the time frame would be around 5am
MT to 9am MT.

As moisture advection continues some fog and stratus is
forecast to be in place across the area. At this time, not
anticipating dense fog as winds should still be breezy gusting
around 25 mph which should help to keep the boundary layer
mixed. Trends will need to be continued in upcoming shifts.

Another round of severe weather is forecast during the afternoon
hours Friday, as a surface low begins to develop across eastern
Colorado setting up a dryline around the Highway 59 vicinity across
Cheyenne, Kit Carson and Yuma counties. The surface low is forecast
to provide enough lift to break a stout cap in place seen on all
guidance. With the cap in place isolated to widely scattered storms
are forecast to develop during the afternoon. Straight line
hodographs are forecast to be in place which would support splitting
cells. Nearly all convective guidance does show supercells
developing along the dry line which further increases my
confidence in storms occurring. Large to very large hail looks
to be the primary hazard along with a tornado or two followed by
damaging winds. The tornado risk looks to be confined to any
right moving supercell, moving northwest to southeast based on
Bunkers Right Motion, as it ingests better vorticity as the
easterly upslope winds continue. The main time frame for these
supercells is currently forecast to be from around 3p-8pm MT.

A brief lull is in the activity is forecast before yet another round
of severe storms develops during the overnight hours as another
shortwave moves across the area. Very strong agreement with guidance
as well with isentropic ascent across the same area mainly east of
Highway 25 as surface boundary pushes into the area as seen on sfc
Theta E forecasts. Forecast soundings suggest supercell structures
in place with hail potentially around 2 inches especially
further east and south where moisture is forecast to be
stronger.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Saturday and Sunday troughing continues to remain in place with
waves of energy being sent towards the forecast area along with
easterly winds favoring upslope flow continuing as well which
seems to be the main driver for the higher chances of rainfall.
Severe chances at this time seem a little murky as cloud cover
may hold strong and keep temperatures in the 50s to low 60s
compared to the mid to upper 60s currently forecast ; however
if any breaks in the clouds can occur then the severe threat may
increase as more instability can be built up. At this time it
seems that Saturday has the relative better potential for severe
weather as the waves impacting the area look stronger. Will be
keeping the mention of thunder in the forecast for Sunday as
MUCAPE remains in place but is not as high as previous days.

Rainfall chances do look to continue through Tuesday as troughing
sits across the SW CONUS and multiple shortwaves move through the
area. Severe weather at this time looks iffy as cooler air remains
in place across the area. The main concern may turn into flooding
especially if certain places do see round after round after
round of rainfall. PWATS are forecast to be around one inch and
Corfidi upshear and downshear vectors are fairly fast so it
would have to take multiple rounds of heavy rainfall but it may
be something to remain aware of.

A very strong signal for below normal temperatures is seen Saturday
through Monday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low
60s across most of the area but may need to be lowered even more
especially if cloud cover can is thicker than currently
anticipated. A run at some record lowest high temperatures may
be in the cards as well.

A surface high is currently seen to be moving into the area for the
latter portion of the extended period which would bring a less
active pattern to the area if the trend can hold along with cooler
temperatures continuing through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the
night. However, around 10-12Z, stratus will start moving in and
will lower ceilings down to low MVFR to potentially IFR
conditions. We are also expecting showers and storms to move
through the area between 12 and 18Z. Once these storms move out,
ceilings will improve. KGLD may have another storm move through
around 0Z tomorrow.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...CA