804
FXUS63 KGLD 251709
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1109 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures
  are forecast to be in the low to mid 100s with heat index
  values in the mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated
  including humans and livestock.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire on time as
visibilities across the advisory area have improved.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Current observations show fog developing along a surface ridge near
the Nebraska border. This looks to be the main story of the night as
the fog could cause visibility to drop to a quarter of a mile or
less at times in Red Willow, Decatur, and Norton counties. The
surrounding counties may also see the dense fog, though chances are
lower and it would likely be fairly brief. Otherwise, Partly cloudy
skies is forecast for the rest of the area with temperatures in the
60s and low 70s.

For the daytime hours, the upper ridge is forecast to amplify and
move more over the Plains. With this and generally clear skies,
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 100s. With dewpoints
forecast to remain in the 50s and 60s with southeasterly low level
flow, heat index values are forecast to reach the low to mid 100s,
especially east of Highway 83. As such, the multi-day heat advisory
starts this afternoon. Be sure to take breaks from the heat and stay
hydrated.

Some showers and storms are forecast to develop along the Front
Range and try and push east during the afternoon/evening hours. For
now, it looks like the area will be lacking in instability and
inhibit storms from making it to the area. Even if a storm did make
it, it would likely be weak and short lived.

Tonight, winds are forecast to shift to be more from the south and
have speeds hover around 10 mph. As long as this persists,
temperatures will likely remain in the 70s and limit recovery from
the heat. The chances for fog are also much lower with the winds
mixing the lower levels.

Sunday is forecast to be one of the warmest days as the upper ridge
is forecast to amplify further while over the Plains. This along
with increased warm air advection in more southerly/southwesterly
flow is forecast to have temperatures reach the 100s, with mid to
upper 100s possible for those mainly in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska.
With moisture availability remaining roughly the same, heat index
values are forecast to reach the mid to upper 100s in NW Kansas and
SW Nebraska. As such, the Heat Advisory continues through the day
Sunday. There is also the possibility that western parts of the area
dry out enough for relative humidity to drop into the teens.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible, but the surface low
will likely be broad enough to keep winds below 20 mph. Depending on
how much the surface low shifts east though, there is a 20-30%
chance for a few quick showers/storms to develop. As mentioned
above, the moisture content may be lowering which will inhibit how
many showers/storms can survive and actually produce precipitation.
Still, be alert for potential strong wind gusts and lightning
that could spark some fires. The storms will also likely end in
the afternoon/early evening unless a low level jet can get going
and help make up the difference in moisture and forcing.

Sunday night is unfortunately forecast to be even warmer than
Saturday night with lows in the 70s and maybe even the low 80s. A
combination of southwesterly downslope winds and higher level cloud
cover from the storms in the west are forecast to inhibit how much
temperatures can cool. Again, this may limit how much "recovery" can
be done from the heat with temperatures staying relatively warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Synoptically, the ridge that has been in place the past few days is
likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. Throughout the
week, Guidance is showing there a few shortwave troughs that will
move through the region.

Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching
the low 100s. The highest temperatures that could be seen are 105-
107 degrees. These temperatures look to remain east of KS Hwy 27.
Due to these high temperatures a Heat Advisory is in place for all
of the Kansas and Nebraska Counties at this time. Winds look to
mainly remain from the north-northeast with gusts up to 20-25 kts.

There are some precipation chances on Monday afternoon/evening.
Looking at PoPs there is a 30-45% for the majority of the County
Warning Area (CWA). Looking at Guidance, there does seem to be a
shortwave and a boundary that will move in from the north and
continue south. However some disagreement on the boundary itself.
The ECMWF and Canadian both have the boundary, but the GFS does not.
As for Precipitation there is agreement with the NBM and LREF that
there is a 20-30% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipation, for Yuma
County in Colorado. Looking at ingredients needed for severe storms
there are some indications there could be storms but on the marginal
side.


Moving to the rest of the week, starting Tuesday temperatures begin
to "cool" down to the high 90s. Precipitation chances return again
in the afternoon and evening with PoP`s reaching up to 60% in Yuma
County, in Colorado. For the majority of the rest of the CWA there
is values in the 20-40% range. For the extended part of the week,
the highs still remain in the 90s, with the exception of Thursday
highs cool down to the high 80s and low 90s. PoPs each day hangout
around 20-40% for the majority of the CWA. One feature to keep an
eye on is on Thursday there looks to be a shortwave with an
associated surface low that could bring more weather chances.
However, given this is almost a week out a lot can change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Winds are
forecast to be from the south-southeast through the afternoon
and evening before shifting to mainly from the south around
sunrise Sunday. Winds are forecast to increase in speed with up
to 20 knot sustained, currently favoring MCK by late afternoon
before waning to around 10 knots for the remainder of the
period. Mainly clear skies are forecast but an increase in sky
cover is forecast from decaying showers/storms from the Front
Range early this evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Trigg