116
FXUS63 KGLD 050914
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
214 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense freezing fog and patchy freezing drizzle forecast
  tonight into Wednesday morning primarily across northwest
  Kansas.

- Near critical to critical fire weather forecast across Kit
  Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
  Confidence is low in the duration of overlapping conditions
  of gusty winds and low humidity.

- Roller coaster daytime temperatures Wednesday (much warmer),
  Thursday (colder) before stabilizing a bit (near to below
  normal) Friday through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

With visibility in dense freezing fog dropping below a mile at
Goodland and Leoti airports, have opted to issue a Dense Fog
Advisory through 14z. Counties include Sherman, Wallace, Greeley
and Wichita at this time. May have to include counties to the
east towards sunrise as the cloud cover slowly pushes east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

Very subtle isentropic lift is ongoing across most of the area which
is leading to light snow and flurries across most of the area. The
snowflakes have been occasionally fairly large as well which is a
bit surprising given the cold conditions and light lift but there
does look to be a couple joules of surface based CAPE which appears
to be enough for the large flakes. Based off of the RAP and NAM 275K
and 280K isentropic lift am thinking the chance for light snow and
flurries will end west to east across the area through the
afternoon. Nothing more than a dusting is expected.  Cloud cover
looks to continue across the area but with some less thick
cirrus coming off of the Rockies which may help the Colorado
counties and potential towards the Highway 27 corridor warm into
the mid 20s to low 30s. Further east it will be a struggle to
get out of the teens.

Tonight, ESE upslope flow is forecast to continue which will again
bring the risk of freezing fog to the area. Cross section omega and
isentropic ascent again show similar lift to what has been seen
so far this morning which makes me think that the threat for
flurries and light snow may continue starting again around
midnight again or so. Some guidance wants to shows to some
stronger isentropic lift across the east around sunrise which
makes me wonder if freezing drizzle may be possible since
temperatures may be a little warmer than they are now as dew
points rise slowly. The only thing that is pointing against
freezing drizzle is that the lowest 1KM of the atmospheric
profile is not completely saturated. This is also the reasoning
of why not being more aggressive with the wording of the fog. I
am included some areas of fog wording across Thomas, Logan,
Gove and Wichita counties which look to have relatively better
upslope flow which is similar to what happened at KGLD this AM.
I have also taken out the freezing drizzle mention for the
Nebraska counties and converted them to flurries due to the
amount of ice in the clouds which is unfavorable for freezing
drizzle to occur.

Wednesday, fog and stratus are forecast to slowly move out from
west to east as westerly downsloping winds prevail ushering in
drier air in the profile. Temperatures are forecast to warm
quickly as this occurs with high temperatures across the west
reaching the mid to upper 60s. There are some outlier guidance
that has the cloud cover lingering a little longer mainly for
east of the state line which if that were to occur then high
temperatures across Kansas and Nebraska would be cooler than
currently forecast so have nudged those down a little bit. Highs
currently in this area range from the mid 60s at Goodland to
the mid 40s towards McCook and Hill City.

With the warm temperatures across the west will have to keep an
eye on near critical to potentially critical fire weather for
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties. An 850mb jet is forecast to
develop across eastern Colorado and with the westerly
down sloping winds and drier air do think mixing will occur.
The question is how strong will the winds be? NAM and ECMWF are
a little weaker on the winds with the jet but the HRRR and the
GFS both support wind gusts of 25-35 mph across Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties. This is also supported from the 12 HREF mean
winds as well, since the GFS in particular does a better job
with mixing have trended the forecast towards that. With the
westerly wind also have concern that this will dry out the area
further than what forecast guidance suggests so tailored the dew
points in that area down towards the 5th percentile. However am
opting to hold off on issuing any fire products at this time as
there is some concern that these stronger winds may not set up
due to the positioning of the surface as the NAM and ECMWF are
currently handling the position of this the best as of right now
so will have to continue to keep an eye on this as this is just
enough to lower my confidence of critical fire weather criteria
occurring for 3+ hours to around 30 to 40%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Saturday...the forecast area will be under zonal flow aloft, ahead
of an approaching upper level trough. GFS/GEM/ECMWF models all show
favorable moisture in the 850-500mb layer moving into areas
generally west of Highway 27 during the night to support a 20%-40%
chance of light snow showers. This area of precipitation chances may
need to be expanded further east to cover locations generally along
and north of the KS/NE border given the orientation of the favorable
850-500mb moisture. As surface high pressure moves in, breezy to
windy northerly winds are expected with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph
range during the day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 30s to upper 40s (coldest along and north of the KS/NE border)
with low temperatures in the middle teens.

Sunday...as Saturday nights system moves through, there will be a
20% chance of morning snow showers from Goodland and Burlington
north before moisture availability decreases. With GFS/GEM/ECMWF
850mb temperatures a few degrees colder compared to Saturday, high
temperatures from the NBM in the middle 30s to lower 40s seems
reasonable. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the teens.

Monday...850mb temperatures fall another few degrees Celsius
with forecast high temperatures in the 30s and low temperatures
in the single digits to lower teens above zero. The colder air
will interact with another batch of moisture moving through the
area from the west and northwest to support 20% chances for
light snow showers north of Interstate 70 during the day,
increasing to 30%-50% overnight across the entire forecast area.


Tuesday...another shot of colder air moves through the area from the
north. There is quite a range of 850mb temperatures from the
GFS/GEM/ECMWF models with the GFS the warmest compared to the other
two. NBM 75th-25th percentile max temperatures also show quite a
range of about 11 to 15 degrees so there is quite a bit of
uncertainty on just how cold it will be. Presently, high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 25 to 30 degree range. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the 5F to 10F range in general.

Regarding precipitation chances, the GFS moves Mondays system out of
the area with dry weather forecast. The ECMWF model and lesser
extent GEM model keep some moisture in the area with the NBM showing
30%-40% chances for light snow showers during the day and overnight
hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

For KGLD... IFR conditions are expected through the first 6 to
12 hours with ceilings around 200-500ft and the chance for
freezing fog. 05Z observations show a broad area of low
ceilings around a few hundred feet with locations who have had
the low ceilings for a few hours beginning to develop fog. This
is expected to happen at KGLD within the first hour or two of
the period. Once the fog develops, it should linger until winds
near the surface and through a few thousand feet begin to shift
to out of the southwest and drag in drier air. Current forecast
is around 13Z, but this could happen as early as 09Z. Low
ceilings will likely linger for an hour or two after the fog
clears, but then transition to clear skies by the mid to late
morning. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder
of the period.

For KMCK... MVFR ceilings between 1000-2500ft are forecast
through the night, though it is unclear if enough moisture will
move in for lower ceilings and/or fog. Be ready for conditions
to change fairly quickly as winds near the surface are favorable
and trying to bring in low level moisture. However, the cloud
ceiling is keeping temperatures from cooling and keeping the air
relatively dry near the surface. By about 18-20Z, the drier air
from the southwest along with additional sunshine should lift
any cloud layer and allow for VFR conditions through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Looking for a few hours of Near Critical to Critical fire weather
conditions over Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in northeast
Colorado this afternoon. South-southwest flow this morning will
become westerly by this afternoon, warming and further drying out
the area. This will result in humidity values to drop into the mid
and upper teens. Wind gusts by the afternoon will reach 20-25 mph,
with some isolated areas(Flagler) seeing potentially 30-40 mph for
an hour or two.

Adjacent Kansas counties to this(Sherman, Wallace and Greeley) will
see humidity drop to the upper teens, and west-southwest gusts will
only approach 15-25 mph (mainly the western portions of the
counties). This could produce some isolated near critical conditions
this afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     KSZ013-027-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...JN