589
FXUS63 KGLD 011722
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1122 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend; severe
  weather is possible today through Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures through the end of the week, then a
  gradual warm up over the weekend.

- Hot and mainly dry for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A weak cluster of showers and storms is propagating to the ESE
across the area currently being fueled by southeasterly upslope
flow. The strongest portion of it is currently in Kit
Carson/northern Cheyenne county fueled by isentropic lift in the
300K level and producing heavy rainfall as MRMS data is
currently showing 2-3 inches of rainfall north of I-70 in Kit
Carson county. Current RAP data shows some subsidence trying to
push in from the northwest around 08-09Z so think that the
coverage and intensity should begin to wane around that time.
Lingering showers and isolated storms may linger across
northeastern portions of the area through sunrise. Guidance
continues to suggest fog and stratus developing as early as 10Z
across the area. Will maintain the patchy wording in the
forecast for now as this rainfall may end up altering the
environment some so overall confidence is low. Should fog end up
developing localized dense fog may be possible as well.


For today, a surface high located across the SW CONUS provides some
subtle ridging but for the most part northwesterly flow is forecast
to remain in place. Have lowered high temperatures for the day a few
degrees as lingering stratus, especially across the north may
dictate how much we warm up. A weak surface trough moves into
northwest portions of the area through the afternoon leading to
breezy winds but still from the southeast sustained around 20
mph and gusting to 30 mph. Smoke aloft from wildfires in Utah
and Arizona may also leave a bit of a haze across the area as
well. the HRRR near surface smoke doesn`t show any smoke
concentrations so not anticipating any reductions in visibility
with the smoke but some degraded air quality may be possible as
a haze looks to be in place across the area.

The main focus for the day will be another severe weather
threat for the area. The continued daily activity moving off of
the Front Range is forecast to happen again as it treks to the
east; however a shortwave within the northwesterly flow off of
the Cheyenne Ridge looks to move towards the area. At this time
any storm activity shouldn`t move into the area until 6pm MT at
the earliest. Storms initially look to be discrete in nature as
they move into Yuma county posing a large hail to golfball and
damaging wind threat. 03Z RAP and 00Z NAM all show some low
level curvature in forecast soundings which may lead to a very
low chance of a tornado occurring. However due to chaotic flow
in the 700-500mb layer currently think that if a tornado were to
form it would be brief in nature. As the evening goes on the
low level jet is forecast to increase which should aid in an
upscale growth of the storms as they continue to trek to the
east with wind and heavy rainfall becoming the primary hazard as
it approaches western Kansas. A similar scenario as to what is
currently playing out is possible as well with showers and
storms continuing to push across the area due to the continued
southeasterly flow.

Another threat for severe weather is forecast Saturday as well
as a similar pattern to today is in store. Shear again is
forecast to remain high around 30-40 knots and increasing CAPE
through the afternoon will continue to pose a threat for
damaging winds and large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Main
storm mode at this time looks to be a cluster or a line with the
concerns for hail being if any embedded supercell can occur
within this line. PWATS do appear to be a bit lower around 1
inch so at this time not overly concerned for flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

On Sunday, the ridge will begin to amplify over the Rockies.
This will place the central plains under northwest flow. Some
drier air will move into western parts of the forecast area, but
the central and eastern areas remain moist and unstable. Storms
will develop in those areas during the afternoon and evening
hours, but exactly where is still a bit uncertain. Some models
show them initiating along the dry line as far west as the
Kansas/Colorado border, others keep them further east and out of
the area. Deep layer shear increases after 00z to around 40-50
kts, suggesting more of a severe threat should storms remain
discrete.

Temperatures will gradually warm back to near normal by the
weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

Upper ridge continues to amplify on Monday and reaches its
furthest north extent. It deamplifies Tuesday through Thursday
with more of a zonal flow across the central plains. Models are
generally dry and hot during this period. May see some isolated
storm chances return once the ridge deamplifies and weak
shortwaves come over the top, but models are not very
enthusiastic.

Temperatures will warm from near normal on Monday to above
normal Tuesday through Thursday, with highs back into the mid to
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Low clouds will persist another hour or two at KGLD and through
about mid afternoon at KMCK before finally lifting to VFR.
Showers and thunderstorms will move out of Colorado tonight and
potentially impact both terminals with a brief period of gusty
winds and visibility reductions in rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024