658
FXUS63 KGLD 170640
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1240 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible both Saturday and Sunday.
  Saturday`s chance is fairly low and limited to generally
  Highway 40 and south. The main threat is large hail. Sunday
  has the better chance for severe storms along with most of the
  area at risk. Threats include large to very large hail,
  damaging wind gusts, and a few brief tornadoes.

- Sunday also has the potential for strong southwesterly winds
  through the afternoon and evening hours on the backside of the
  low pressure system. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025

For the remainder of tonight, a few clouds are forecast to move over
the area as mid to upper level moisture streams over the Front
Range. At the surface, temperatures are forecast to lower into the
upper 30s and 40s with calm winds across much of the area.

For Saturday, relatively mild conditions are forecast for the area
as the area is forecast to be under ridging aloft. With it, mostly
sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and initially light winds around 10-
15 mph are forecast. As the day goes on, the next upper trough is
forecast to move more east into the Mountain West and help develop
surface low pressure along the Front Range. As the low pressure
develops, the pressure gradient is forecast to increase through the
day and strengthen winds in Eastern Colorado and neighboring
counties. Speeds could reach 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph later in
the afternoon.

Late Saturday afternoon and through the night, the forecast still
calls for some showers and storms to try and make their way into
parts of the area. A potential batch is forecast to develop along
the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado, along the eastern edge of
the low. Severe storms look to be unlikely with this batch given
forecast soundings suggesting low instability (CAPE < 1000J/KG and
mid-level lapse rates around 8.0 C/KM) and relatively weak winds
through the cloud layer (mid level winds and corfidi downshear
vectors around 30-40 kts). This batch of storms is forecast to
struggle to reach the area as the air is forecast to be a bit drier
in the low to mid-levels in Eastern Colorado. The second potential
batch favors southern and eastern portions of the area, closer to
Central Kansas. This batch has the better chance to be severe, if it
can form. Guidance continues to suggest that a capping inversion
will be over most of this area and limit thunderstorm potential. If
storms do form, some guidance suggests that elevated instability may
be able to move in as moisture streams into the area in the low
levels. With this, there could be enough instability for some quick
storms to fire and produce hail up to half dollar in size (MUCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/KG, mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/KM). The
best chance looks to be late in the afternoon and during the early
evening hours. As the evening continues, more low level moisture is
forecast to stream into the area from the southeast. With this,
there is the possibility that fog and even some dense fog could
develop. There are still some questions about where the saturated
air will develop along with if the winds will be too strong and mix
out the lower level saturation, but most of Northwest Kansas could
see fog late in the night Saturday and into early Sunday. If the fog
and/or low level clouds develop, locales underneath would likely
stay in the upper 40s and 50s for lows. The rest of the area is
forecast to cool into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

Sun-Sun night: An upper level trough digging SSE ashore the
Pacific Coast Sat-Sat night will broaden and stall in vicinity
of the 4-Corners on Sun. Cyclonic shear vorticity on the eastern
periphery of the trough (over the central Rockies) will foster
the development of a modest lee cyclone over eastern Colorado
and extreme western Kansas during the day. Southerly flow on the
eastern periphery of the upper trough (in the lee of the
central-southern Rockies) and deep vertical mixing will assist
the northward advancement of a pronounced dryline.. to the I-70
corridor (possibly as far north as Hwy 36).. and that strong
southerly winds may develop behind the dryline Sun afternoon.
While thermodynamic/environmental conditions are favorable for
severe weather (especially with southern and eastern extent over
central-eastern KS, where rich low-level moisture will be
present).. these areas will also be further removed from upper
forcing (and in closer vicinity to the central CONUS ridge)..
and significant uncertainty exists with regard to whether or not
(and where) low-level forcing will be sufficient to overcome
convection inhibition. At this time, it is uncertain whether or
not convection will develop in the NWS Goodland CWA. Overall,
convection appears more likely to develop in northeast CO and
southwest NE (in closer proximity to upper forcing).. where
thermodynamic/environmental conditions are less favorable for..
albeit still supportive-of.. severe weather.

Mon-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that the broad upper
trough / upper level low will progress east across the Central
Plains in this period. Expect above average chances for
precipitation and near-average to below-average temperatures.

Wed: Subsidence in the wake of the broad upper low departing
the region will foster dry conditions and near-average
temperatures.

Thu-Fri: Long range guidance suggests that a modest
unidirectional flow pattern will prevail over the Central Plains
late next week.. as an upper level ridge develops over the
Desert Southwest. Expect dry conditions and a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites
through the period. Mostly clear skies are forecast over the
area with prevailing dry air. Winds are forecast to generally be
below 10 kts tonight. Winds are then forecast to pick up closer
to 15 kts tomorrow late in the morning and then subside again
closer to 00Z while becoming more easterly/southeasterly. There
is a chance for fog tomorrow night (Sat night), but it is
currently forecast to occur after 06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK