592
FXUS63 KGLD 171835
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1235 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with highs generally in the 70s.

- Temperatures return to the 90s Friday, continually warming
  into next week as temperatures may reach the low 100s by
  Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and storms continue daily into early next
  week. Strong to severe storms may be possible each day with
  Saturday looking most favorable at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Stratus is forecast to continue through the majority of the day with
some spotty clearing occurring during the mid to late afternoon
hours which is when main heating for the day is forecast to occur
and perhaps even rapidly in spots as high temperatures are
forecast to remain in hte 70s to perhaps some low 80s across
western Yuma and Kit Carson counties where some downsloping may
help warm temperatures a bit more. Similar to the past several
days another weak wave off of the Rockies is forecast to lead to
some showers and storms moving towards the CWA from the west.
Similar to yesterday, I`m very skeptical of this due to limited
instability and do have some concerns it will follow a CAPE
gradient and clip or even miss the entire CWA in general this
evening; as a result of this I have cut rain chances
significantly with those only south of Highway 40 remaining.
Throughout the remainder of the night isentropic ascent in the
305K level increases which may lead to some showers and storms
develop after 06Z as a low level jet develops and lasting into
Friday morning along and east roughly from Tribune to Norton so
will maintain 15-24% chance of rainfall. RAP soundings are semi
saturated below the inversion which may just result in drizzle,
but will maintain the thunder mention due to surface CAPE
remaining in place as well as some rogue thunder or lighting
remains possible. Some patchy fog with visibilities of 4-7SM
are possible across the area but due to the lack of full
saturation in the low levels according to RAP soundings think
low stratus will again return. Winds are forecast to slowly
become southwesterly west to east across the area which is
forecast to end any stratus or fog concerns across the area by
mid to late morning.


Friday, a surface low is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado
leading to warmer temperatures advecting into the area as high
temperatures in the 90s return. I did lower dew points around 3-5
degrees across western portions of the area due to mixing heights
around 5000-8000 feet which should help mix down some slightly drier
air with inverted v sounding sin place. Winds throughout the day are
forecast to be light around 10 mph sustained as a weak wind field
does continue to remain in place; further east however due to a
developing 700mb jet some wind gusts of 20-25 mph are possible.
Across the east with that same jet the area will reside in the left
entrance region of the jet which may be enough for some showers or
storms to develop Friday afternoon; the jet however has shifted
more east than what I was seeing yesterday so have lowered rain
chances down to silent pops due to concerns that the trend will
continue and any rainfall will remain outside of the area.
Further west however due to the proximity of the developing low
and topological influences some isolated to scattered storms may
develop across the area higher elevations and may survive long
enough to make it to the Highway 27 corridor as a low level jet
develops and starts to bring in monsoonal moisture into the area
again; Severe weather is not expected with either of that
activity. With this low stratus and potentially fog look to
develop as the low moves over the area Friday night and into
Saturday morning. Dense fog may be a possibility due to the
amount of moisture moving into the area but low levels at least
according to the 15Z RAP soundings aren`t saturated enough at
this time to warrant introducing fog into the forecast at this
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Some subtle diffluence in the 500mb level and being near the right
exit region of a jet streak may be enough lift for some morning
showers or storms to develop Saturday morning to begin the long
term period as a surface high across the southern Plains begins
to take form. Will add in some silent pops to account for this
potential for now but confidence is not quite there to
introduce into the forecast at this time. A developing surface
low along with a short wave rounding the developing high
pressure system will be the focus for strong to severe storm
potential on Saturday afternoon and evening. The exact
positioning of the surface low pressure system will dictate how
warm it gets and the coverage/location of severe weather for the
day. A further north low will lead to warmer temperatures as
the warm front lifts into Nebraska, severe weather potential may
still be possible with the shortwave however but may be more
limited but would favor wind and hail. If the low stays further
south then highs in the low to mid 80s will be more likely and
increase SBCAPE which potentially may lead to an all hazards
possible day. All guidances shows straight line hodographs which
supports splitting cells. Enough wind shear should be in place
for supercells initially before growing upscale into a cluster.
With the amount of moisture in place cloud cover could play a
role into how everything pans out as well so there still does
remain quite a bit of variation into the day.

Sunday and Monday, the pattern remains roughly the same with perhaps
some slight northward movement of the surface high. Another round of
showers and storms throughout the afternoon and evening. The big
story for next week may be the warm to hot temperatures as the above
mentioned surface high expands across the area. Moisture does appear
however to remain across the area which may lead to heat indices
along and east of Highway 83 nearing 105 degrees potentially for
multiple days. Dependent on how far west the main high does set up
will also dictate rain and storm chances as well as monsoonal
moisture continues to feed up into the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue through the majority of
the day before breaking around MCK near 22Z and GLD around 20Z.
A return of stratus is forecast to occur again tonight, although
it may be not as long lived at GLD as it is at MCK winds become
more SSW ending the threat as some drier air begins to push in.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg