209
FXUS63 KGLD 182041
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
241 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are forecast through the weekend with
  highs generally in the 40s and 50s and lows around freezing.

- There is a chance for around an inch of snow tonight in
  Eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies continue to remain
cloudy as a strong surface ridge building off the north central
Rockies continues to keep the veil of low cloud intact over the
area. This has affected temperatures with 30s west and 40s currently
east. The gradient ahead of the approaching ridge remains northerly
with gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

The main wx concern for the short term period will focus on the
potential for light snow over portions of the region tonight into
Saturday morning.

For the remainder of the afternoon hours into tonight, the region
remains under a persistent veil of low clouds due to a strong ridge
over the central/northern Plains. There is a surface low and
associated front over central Colorado. The latest RAP40 500mb
analysis is showing a cutoff low swinging into the central Rockies.
There is currently light to moderate snowfall west of Limon and the
latest CAMs are showing increased areal coverage of QPF overnight
into Saturday morning. Looking for the current coverage to blossom
more as the upper low swings into the Plains, along with surface
ridge/low combo move south through eastern Colorado. As a result,
the highest chances for any light snow to develop around 60% in
Colorado where 1-2 inches is possible. Best chances will occur in
western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties. Some localized
higher amounts are possible. Precip tapers to the east based on
storm/system track. Overall QPF tapers in the morning hours Saturday.

For the remainder of the upcoming weekend, the previously mentioned
upper low swings south of the CWA. This trend has continued in
several runs. The system dips into the OK/TX panhandle lifting
slowly into central KS due to a blocking ridge to the east. Due to
the further south/east track, pops have been reduced, with best
chance along and west of Highway 25. Some late night/early morning
snow showers are possible, but based on hourly temps, rain will be
main wx feature.

For temps, highs this weekend will range in the upper 40s west to
the upper 50s east on Saturday. Going into Sunday, warmer with low
to mid 60s expected area-wide. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the mid and upper 20s in Colorado, into the lower to mid 30s in
KS/NE. This weekend, similar to tonight with a wide range from the
upper 20s to lower 30s along/west of Highway 27, and west of there
mid to upper 30s(Warmest east of Highway 83). And for Sunday night,
mid 30s area-wide. Wind chill readings will dip into the 20s for the
overnight periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Main weather concerns for the extended period will center around
increased fire weather chances to start off the week, then trend to
thunderstorm and rain chances mainly Wednesday onward.

The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are showing zonal flow setting up
over the region Monday following the exit of the weekend system.
There is a weak shortwave passing just north of the area Monday
evening, with a 15-20% chance of some showers from Highway 34 and
north. Before this occurs, low pressure to the west will set up S/SW
flow over the region providing a warm and dry day. RH values do drop
into the mid and upper teens, but areas in Colorado will also see
gusts to 20-25 mph due to proximity of the low to the west. These
taper as you work east. The result will have some localized near
critical fire wx conditions set up during the afternoon in Colorado
at this time, but could shift east depending on the position of the
low.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, an upper ridge sets up over the
Plains. Guidance does begin to split from here as to the position of
the low mentioned before that drifts/sets up to the south under the
upper ridge. It does look like ample low level moisture could work
into the CWA as result. It will be where the low/front set up that
will determine the amount of precip the CWA will get from late
Tuesday into the end of the week. PW values could surge into the
0.80-1.00" range, especially east allowing for decent rain chances.
There is enough instability to warrant a mention of thunderstorms as
well, especially Wed-Thu. NBM guidance still remains high 60-70% for
pops late in the week even though mentioned in a couple runs. There
is some consistency to this but will not lower at this time.

For temps, highs for next Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid
70s to lower 80s each day. Trending cooler as the week progresses
with 70s on Wednesday, dropping to the upper 60s to lower 70s for
Thursday then mid 60s to lower 70s for Friday. Overnight lows Monday
and Tuesday nights will range from the upper 30s west into the mid
40s east. 40s are expected thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 949 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

For KGLD... Mainly MVFR ceilings expected through the forecast
period. There could be a few hours of IFR Ceilings through 21Z,
and some VFR skies from 01-07Z Saturday. Winds, approximately
northerly around 10-15 knots through 17Z, and then becoming
northeasterly around 10 knots.

For KMCK... Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Some MVFR ceilings around BKN015 possible from 18Z to 22Z.
Winds, approximately northerly around 10-15 knots through 09Z
Saturday, then becoming light and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN