149
FXUS63 KGLD 072034
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
234 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit heat returns today, but there`s a gradual cool-
  down through Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms return over the next
  couple days. There may be a few wind gusts around 60 mph, but
  the severe weather chance is fairly low around 5%. If these
  wind gusts do occur, there may be some blowing dust.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Current observations have a an upper high amplitude ridge over the
Plains with a trough upstream over the Northwestern CONUS. Near the
surface, a low pressure system was located just northwest of the
area with an associated weak cold front. The upper trough is
forecast to slowly push east, and help move the surface low/front
into the area as the day progresses. With the slow motion, the
low/front should only move to roughly near the Tri-State border
area. This will keep much of the area in the strong southerly flow
through the remainder of the day, with winds already around 15-25
mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures should still warm to near
100 for most of the area as well, with maybe some low 90s near the
Tri-State border area. Some hazy skies from blowing dust remains
possible as the day progresses, but winds will likely be too weak
and mixing heights too high to support decreased surface visibility
except right near prime dust source regions.

Storms remain forecast for the area this afternoon and evening with
the low/front in the area. With storms already trying to form in the
Nebraska Panhandle this morning, odds are that we will have a few
storms develop by 1-3pm MT. This would likely be along and west of a
line from Burlington, CO to McCook, NE. With the environment
forecast to have MUCAPE around 1500 J/KG and 0-6km shear around 20-
30 kts to start, severe weather is forecast to be marginal and
spotty. Hail around an inch and wind gusts around 60 mph would be
the possible threats. Do keep an eye out for blowing dust should a
strong outflow occur, especially if it is with a storm behind the
front where mixing heights may be a bit lower. A landspout or two
may also be possible if the shear is more on the lower side of the
forecast. Storm coverage behind the front could be fairly widespread
with the low level system, a potential upper shortwave pushing in,
and mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km. The main hindrance to
the storm coverage is if the upper ridge`s influence remains over
the area and provides upper level subsidence. All in all, the
northwestern half of the area has a decent chance to see storms this
afternoon and evening with maybe an instance or two of severe
weather. The storm activity could continue through the night with
the aforementioned forcing in the area, but the severe threat would
likely drop off by 9-10pm MT.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to split into two waves and
push east across the Northern Plains. While unlikely to supplant the
ridge over much of the Central and Southern Plains, it is forecast
to deamplify it. This should also push the surface low/front to the
southeastern portion of the area. For those roughly along and west
of a line from Sharon Springs, KS to McCook, NE, temperatures will
likely be cooler with highs closer to the low 90s and maybe even
some 80s. The rest of the area unfortunately will likely near 100
again. Winds should be lighter across the area compared to today
with speeds around 10-15 mph. Those underneath the system may even
go calm for most of the day.

Showers and storms are possible again tomorrow afternoon and
evening. The afternoon storms are forecast to form along the frontal
boundary around 2-4pm MT. There is some uncertainty on how far south
the boundary would push, but the best chance for this round are
forecast to be along and south of a line from Tribune, KS to Norton,
KS. These storms would generally be sub-severe with MUCAPE close to
or less than 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 20 kts. Maybe a wind
gust around 50-60 mph could occur. The secondary chance for storms
would come from the higher terrain to the west as the secondary
trough pushes into the Plains. Assuming the environment isn`t too
capped, this round would likely turn into a cluster than then pushes
east through the area. The severe weather threat would remain on the
low side with low lapse rates and the aforementioned inhibition.
However, if the cluster can produce an organized storm, there is the
possibility for hail around an inch and/or wind gusts around 60 mph.
The other potential hazard would be flooding. Not only would the
western cluster likely be an efficient rain producer, but smaller
cells could form ahead and allow for training. The overall chance
remains around 5%, but keep an eye out for sneaky hazards late into
the evening. Storms may again persist into the night, especially if
both rounds of storms form and produce outflow boundaries.

Wednesday, the main waves of the upper trough should be pushing east
into the Great Lakes region. This should help finish pushing the
surface front/low well south of the area. With the slightly cooler
air mass in place, highs are forecast to be in the 80s across the
area. There may be a few 90s south of Highway 40 if the upper ridge
keeps its influence a bit further north. Winds are forecast to start
around 10-20 mph from the north, but very slowly lower through the
daytime hours.

The afternoon and evening hours will bring another chance for
showers and storms, albeit a bit lower of a chance with the lower
forcing likely gone from the area. Still, an upper wave on the
backside of the larger trough up north should help a few storms
develop over the higher terrain to the west and push east. The main
issue is that there may not be enough instability for storms to
sustain and make it into the area. This would also likely keep
storms on the sub-severe side. For now, those along and south of I-
70 are favored.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to be supportive of ridging moving in
overhead at 500-mb Thursday morning. This would be producing a
surface high pressure across the Midwest. At the same time, there
looks to be a surface low to the north across South-Central Canada
and portions of the Northern United States. Weak southerly winds
would be favored across the forecast area by this pattern. High
temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s, and possibly
lower 90s. Temperatures would be allowed to reach into the mid and
upper 90s if southerly flow were stronger, but the current forecast
would suggest that the surface high in the Midwest and the surface
low to the north will be too far north to have a significant impact
on southerly flow. Additionally, there are not any major mid level
features that would promote strong winds mixing down to the surface,
suggesting that highs may be a bit cooler than in recent weeks. As
for precipitation, showers may be lingering across portions of
Northwest Kansas and far East-Central Colorado in association with
convection from the previous night. Otherwise, precipitation is not
expected the rest of the day Thursday.

A surface low is favored to form across the Northern and Central
Plains in the right entrance region of a modest 50-70 kt 500-mb jet
streak Friday. A cold front looks to be trailing the surface
low as a surface high intrudes into the Northern United States.
Southerly flow is anticipated out ahead of the surface low,
though it is currently uncertain how soon the cold front will
pass over the forecast region. LREF standard deviation in wind
direction highlights this point, as a broad area from the
Dakotas down through the South-Central High Plains shows a
spread of 70-90 degrees in wind direction. Additionally, there
is some uncertainty in how strong the cold front will be.
Forecast highs Friday are currently in the low to mid 90s,
though about 10-20% of NBM solutions show a faster, stronger
cold front which would prevent highs from reaching the 90s. Dry
conditions are also forecast across our Eastern Colorado
Counties, where winds are primarily expected out of the west to
northwest. LREF guidance shows a 30-50% chance across this area
that relative humidity (RH) values drop below 20%. This may
implicate fire weather as a concern, especially if stronger
winds are experienced with the cold front Friday. NBM guidance
across Western Yuma County shows around a 1 in 3 chance that
wind gusts will reach 25 mph or higher. Confidence in Red Flag
conditions being met (25 mph or greater gusts, and 15% or less
RH for 3 hours) is less than 5%, although this will continue to
be a point to watch as we approach the weekend.

By Saturday, another trough is favored to be digging into the
Western United States, moving eastward toward the forecast region
through the weekend. A surface low at the leading edge is forecast
to move into the Central Rockies Saturday, allowing southerly winds
to return to the forecast area. Even so, highs only have about a 30-
40% chance on Saturday, and a 40-50% chance on Sunday to reach back
into the 90s. This could certainly depend on how cool things can
drop with Friday`s cold front, but the surface winds also have an
easterly component as opposed to a westerly component, which would
prevent the hotter solution. There is the possibility for some
precipitation on Saturday ahead of the low, but NBM guidance
suggests that most areas have less than a 20% chance of receiving
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. These chances increase a
bit on Sunday into the 25-40% range as the low moves into Eastern
Colorado and Wyoming. These higher probabilities are primarily
across Southwest Nebraska and Northern Yuma County in Colorado,
where a warm front may reside. However, some storms may develop
ahead of an incoming cold front as well. Some storms may be allowed
to become severe, as LREF guidance shows up to a 75% chance that
sfc-500mb shear will be above 30 kts. Even so, the same
guidance shows that it is most likely (>80%) that storms will
only have a few hundred J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) at their disposal. Therefore, the
favored solution is that showers and weak thunderstorms would
occur, with a storm or two that could become marginally severe.

The cold front from this system is currently forecast to pass
through the area sometime Sunday evening or overnight. There are
still some timing issues with the system`s eastward progression,
though temperatures are expected to be a bit more temperate upon
passage of this cold front. High temperatures are currently forecast
in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday. It is important to note that
GEFS and EC ensembles show larger amounts of spread in 500-mb
heights ahead of the trough, which would be associated with a faster
progression. If this is the case, these conditions could be
experienced as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period at both sites. Winds should remain from the south with
speeds around 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts through about 06-09Z
when a cold front pushes through. Winds should then lower closer
to 10-15 kts from the north. Even with the strong surface winds,
there should also be some low level wind shear around 03-09Z
with the low level jet developing 40-45 kts a few hundred feet
above the surface. KGLD will likely only have the jet until
around 06Z as it shifts east/south. Both sites have a chance for
storms between 20-09Z, but the storm activity is currently
favored just west of the sites. Stay alert and keep an eye out
for updates as a storm or two may mover over the site and
produce wind gusts of 30-50 kts. KMCK has the slightly higher
chance with the best window around 04-08Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA