643
FXUS63 KGLD 171108
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
508 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and warm conditions are forecast through the
  weekend with mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the
  90s and 100s.

- Low chance storms remain possible during the afternoon/evening
  hours going into the early part of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue to slowly dissipate
overnight as earlier MCV moves into Nebraska. Otherwise, another
mostly sunny and hot day is expected with highs back into the
mid 90s. Convective forecast a bit uncertain, but generally
speaking expecting only isolated storms this afternoon, with a
modest increase in coverage this evening depending on where the
surface boundaries are located. NAM nest and to a lesser extent
HRRR show a boundary over the southern portion of the area which
may be a focus, but confidence is low. Instability and shear
parameters remain weak so severe storms are not anticipated.
Overnight, will have to watch for an MCS that will be moving
through Nebraska, which may lay out an outflow boundary with
additional development possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the remainder of Saturday, the forecast remains on track
for most of the area to warm into the 90s with a few 100s
possible for the eastern half of the area, where the morning
cloud cover did not move over. Showers and storms remain
possible this afternoon and evening as the low pressure system
tries to recenter over the area with upper shortwaves moving
through from the the upstream trough. Storms are expected to
fire up west of the area and potentially in counties along the
Colorado by the mid-afternoon. Current observations show
dewpoints in the 40s/50s in the formation area with guidance
suggesting little improvement. With this, instability should
remain fairly low and keep the chance for strong storms low. The
main hazard would be wind gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range with
decaying storms. Blowing dust could also be a concern, though
well mixed boundary layer conditions currently has dust chances
on the low side. If a storm survived long enough, large hail
would also be possible.

Showers and storms could continue into the overnight hours with
the center of the low remaining over the area. If there are
showers and storms, be alert for potential heat bursts.
Otherwise, skies should clear through the night with low
temperatures in the 60s and 70s again.

Sunday is forecast to be a fairly similar day with almost no
change in the upper pattern. The ridge is forecast to remain
mostly over the eastern half with the troughing upstream over
the rockies. With this, high temperatures are forecast to climb
into the 90s with maybe a few 100s out east. The main difference
is that the center of the surface low is forecast to be broader
as the day goes on, leading to generally lighter winds and
allowing for some northerly from for northwestern parts of the
area. This is also forecast to push the main convergence zone
east. So as storms try to fire up in the afternoon and evening,
storms may form over the eastern half of the area along with the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. This will allow more of the
area to have a chance for showers and storms. The hazards are
forecast to remain the same, with wind gusts of 60-70 mph as
storms decay being the main concern (along with blowing dust).
The only slight difference is that storms forming east of
Highway 25 is forecast to have a bit more instability to work
with the higher dewpoints in the 60s. This could allow for more
storms with large hail, and maybe hail around 2 inches if a
really strong storm develops. Shear is the main inhibitor at
this point with guidance suggesting around 25 kts, which would
favor more pulse storms.

Sunday night is forecast to prior nights, with storms and
clouds clearing through the night. Low temperatures would drop
into the 60s and 70s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the beginning of the work week, an upper level ridge is
forecast to remain over the Rockies. With the center forecast to
be over the Four Corners region and it being amplified up into
South-Central Canada, we are forecast to be relatively dry with
weak flow. While northwest flow generally means chances for
storms, the high amplification may keep the shortwaves and
better mid-level moisture north of the area. We could still see
some pop ups from the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado, but
there doesn`t look to be an organized chance for storms at this
time. The weak flow should also give us relatively light winds,
with winds currently forecast to be 15 mph or less with few
gusts to 20 mph. With the ridge axis forecast to be to the west,
and dewpoints remaining in the 60s and 70s, we may be able to
escape the worst of the heat with highs just in the 90s. Will
need to keep an eye out for heat index values around 100-105 for
the eastern half of the area with the high dewpoints.

Towards the end of the week, the ridge is forecast to break
down and get pushed east by a trough. There remains plenty of
variance on how much of the Plains is influenced by the trough,
but the trend has been for a more western extent across most of
the the Plains and us. If this holds, a cold front will be swept
through and give a more organized chance for storms. It could
also give us a day over the weekend with below average highs in
either the 70s or 80s. Otherwise, near average temperatures in
the 90s and low chances for storms would continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will move through the
area this morning with little, if any, impacts to operations.
Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail through this afternoon at
both KGLD and KMCK. Late this afternoon and this evening,
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop with a low probability of impacting either terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024