020
FXUS63 KGLD 031105
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm potential returns Friday continuing possibly into next
  week.

- Highs in the 90s throughout the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Upper ridge moves east today with a shortwave trough approaching
the central Rockies this afternoon and the central plains on
Friday. Today will be another hot and dry day under the ridge.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with breezy southeast winds.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the
shortwave will move into northeast Colorado late tonight and the
remainder of the area Friday morning. MUCAPE is weak at that
time and deep layer shear only around 10 kts, so not expecting
any severe storms. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Tonight...

Breezy S flow tapers into the overnight hours under a clear sky.
With very low dewpoints observed at max heating of the day, with
locations in east-central CO getting as low as  the upper 30s,
expect lows around 60 going into Thursday morning for much of
the forecast region. Can`t rule out isolated areas bottoming out
as low as the mid 50s should winds become calm.

Thursday into Thursday night...

Blustery S winds. As the W CONUS H5 trof weakens as it lifts NE in
advance of continued wave train of N Pacific energy, the broad ridge
pattern shunted E, the subsequent pressure falls and increasing SW
to NE gradient promotes strong S winds while advecting sub-tropical
moisture N at the surface through the mid-levels. Subtle cooling of
atmospheric column with moist advection and anticipated deep-layer
mixing up around 5 kft, expecting an increase in cloud cover through
the day that should keep highs around the upper 80s to low 90s as
sustained winds are expected around 20 to 25 mph with gusts around
30 to 35 mph with the mix down of faster winds aloft. Throughout it
all, minimum relative humidity values should remain at or above 30
percent.

Overnight, the gradient will remain strong so anticipate winds will
remain breezy. Perhaps some low lying areas could decouple becoming
light but have doubts. Nevertheless, the continued S winds advecting
both moisture and warmer air aloft, as ground temperatures cool have
expectations of a capping inversion beneath which moisture should be
allowed to pool thus promoting the development of low stratus into
the morning hours Friday. This may be the case over a majority of
the forecast area minus perhaps east-central CO. Lows in the mid 60s
maintained by the breezy S winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Beginning Friday, afternoon into evening thunderstorm chances are
forecast to persist into the following week. Persistent N Pacific H3
jet wave breaking along the CA coast at times promoting development
of the 4-corners monsoonal high. Expecting the maintenance of both
heat and humidity upsloping N across the plains with precipitable
waters at least +1 inch. With weak wave energy through the expected
broad near-zonal pattern will need to monitor for the promotion of
surface frontal boundaries along with mid to upper level winds to
determine if any convection is possible.

Friday looks to be the best chance with a weak cold front sweeping
through the region. Timing and outcomes remaining uncertain at this
moment. Roughly 1-2k J/kg CAPE within W/NW 0-6 km shear getting up
to 25-30 kts, enough to promote updraft maintenance. But it is some
question of the environment remaining capped into late and storms
developing further E, more so into evening as models indicate that
with the low-level jet increasing and impinging on the sweeping cold
front that we see MCS development across the central plains. An
expectation that CAMs will paint a better picture over the next 24
hours and provide us higher confidence.

Over the weekend into next week is looking more of a wash, rinse,
repeat cycle as the 4-corners monsoonal high develops along the N-
periphery of which continued energy seemingly promotes thunderstorm
development along the front range of CO that translates E into NW KS
with the mean W/NW wind pattern. Each day will require monitoring of
forcing mechanisms that can promote lift in an expected maintained
environment of heat and humidity across our region. Instability and
shear are largely uncertain so convective modes and exact outcomes
are truly unknown. Things could get complicated even from any storm
cold pool outflows. An eye on heavy rain potential as well. Highs
around 90, lows around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCk today and tonight.
Towards early Thursday morning, low clouds will overspread the
area from the south with MVFR ceilings expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...024