781
FXUS63 KGLD 191950
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The area has another chance for light rain Sunday night and
  Monday. Amounts look to be generally a quarter of inch or less
  at this time.

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will follow
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The upper low is meandering around the Four Corners today and
will continue to do through tomorrow before finally lifting
northeast and across the area Sunday night and Monday. Ahead of
it there is southwest flow with shortwave ridging, so only
expecting a few stray showers south of Interstate 70 through
tomorrow. Not too confident in fog tonight despite some lower
dew point depressions in western areas that received rainfall
due to unfavorable southwest winds, but can`t completely rule
out some minor visibility reductions where it does form. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow,
southwest winds will increase in the morning with gusts 30-40
mph through the afternoon, highest in the west. Temperatures
should manage to get into the 70s the entire area with near 80
in eastern areas like Hill City. Precipitation will develop
fairly quickly Sunday evening as the upper low approaches and
continue through the night. Precipitation amounts expected to
range from less than a tenth of an inch north of I70 to a tenth
to a quarter of an inch south of I70. Lows will be in the 40s
and 50s. The upper low moves over the area on Monday with best
rain chances across the south and east. Additional rainfall on
Monday looks to be less than a tenth of an inch west of Highway
25 and up to a quarter of an inch east of Highway 25. Highs will
be in the lower 70s. Precipitation ends Monday afternoon west
to east with only a few lingering showers far east in the
evening. Monday night will be clear with lows in the 40s. A dry
zonal flow sets up for Tuesday with clear skies. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The forecast area is anticipated to be under upper level
ridging, in between low pressure systems over east coast and well
off the coast of California. The ridge axis slides slowly east
Thursday as the west coast trough weakens while coming ashore. Broad
west-southwest flow covers much of the country Friday with westerly
flow Saturday.

With such little moisture available from the surface to 500mb from
the GFS/ECMWF models, no precipitation is expected.

High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the middle 60s
to lower 70s. This is in line with GEFS 2m temperatures and
pretty close to typical mixing from a blend of GFS/GEM/ECMWF
850mb temperatures. DESI showing a bit of uncertainty with these
values, possibly tied to how fast the warmer air moves in with
the building ridge. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
middle to lower 40s.

On Thursday, GFS/GEM/ECMWF 850mb temperatures rise several
degrees, supportive of NBM high temperatures in the lower to
middle 70s. Low temperatures fall into the middle 30s to around
40.

Friday, above normal temperatures continue with highs in the
middle 70s to around 80. DESI is showing a 10+ degree spread
between the 75th to 25th percentile highs with the mean close to
the current forecast. Low temperatures look to be above normal
in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

On Saturday, above normal temperatures in the lower 70s to around
80 continues with a 10 degree spread between 75th-25th percentile
DESI highs. Low temperatures again in the upper 30s to middle
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

MVFR ceilings will persist through about mid afternoon at both
KGLD and KMCK before lifting to VFR. A few isolates showers will
be possible but not expecting any impacts. Tonight, ceilings
will lower again to MVFR during the late evening to overnight
hours, lifting early Sunday morning as breezy southwest winds
develop.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024