197
FXUS63 KGLD 170519
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1019 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through the middle of the work week.

- An active/unsettled weather pattern will return to the region
  by the end of the work week (Thu-Fri), when a complex storm
  system will bring precipitation to portions of the area
  possibly including a 15% chance for snow for some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

An upper low will move into northern Colorado tonight then
wobble eastward across Nebraska on Monday. Most of the area will
stay dry, but cannot completely discount a shower overnight in
northeast Colorado as the upper low brushes the area, and maybe
some sprinkles in southwest Nebraska on Monday with wraparound.
Otherwise, the mild and dry conditions will continue through
the remainder of the short term period as ridging rebuilds for
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next system organizing in the
southwestern CONUS. High temperatures will generally be in the
60s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

The next upper low will move into the Texas panhandle on
Thursday with the associated precipitation shield moving
north, reaching the local area as early as Thursday afternoon
but more likely Thursday night. Some model discrepancies have
developed in today`s model runs. The GFS has shifted south in
the track of the low, moving it across southern Kansas, while
the ECMWF takes it on more of a northeast track into north
central Kansas. Both models show plenty of QPF, an inch or more
will be possible, mostly in the form of rain. The ECMWF, with
the more northerly track, still wants to change over to snow on
Friday, but the GFS does not. This system does not have much in
the way of cold air to work with and any changeover would
probably have to be rate-driven. Any potential accumulating snow
would also have warm antecedent ground temperatures, leading to
considerable melting on contact. Consequently, overall
confidence in measurable snow is low at this time. Any
precipitation looks to end Friday night as the low moves off to
the east. The weekend looks to be dry as ridging tries to
redevelop ahead of the next system approaching the southwest
CONUS. However, the ridge appears to be a bit weaker this time
around with a northwest flow component tapping into somewhat
cooler air. Weekend highs will be in the 50s with lows in the
20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for GLD through the
period. Until about 10Z, LLWS will be screaming just a few
hundred feet above the ground. Expect gusts around 25 kts to
mix to the surface, but this will become less common as we get
closer to 10Z. Around sunrise, a cold front will move through
the area, and throughout most of the day northwesterly winds
gusting up around 20-30 kts are forecast. Around sunset, winds
will weaken.

KMCK will see mostly VFR conditions, but the potential for MVFR
stratus this morning is slightly increasing. It currently looks
like the cloud deck will be around 1,500 feet AGL, but will be
scattered for the most part, with brief periods of broken
coverage between 12-15Z. LLWS will also impact KMCK until about
10-11Z, but persistent gusts are not expected to reach the
surface early this morning. Around 16Z, the cold front will hit
KMCK and winds will fairly quickly become northwesterly and be
gusting around 20-25 kts until 0Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL