932
FXUS63 KGLD 051630
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1030 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with slight
  cool down Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday and
  Monday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

02Z Water vapor imagery and RAP dynamic tropopause analysis
indicated Pacific NW trough continues to deepen with H4 ridge axis
centered over the Central Plains. Plume of moisture advecting around
periphery of ridge, which was apparent in increase in nearby PW
values over the past 24 hours. At the surface, elongated lee trough
was in place from southeast Montana into southern Colorado.

Fairly persistent pattern will continue through the start of the
week with diurnally driven thunderstorm chances and continued heat
the primary concerns.

Saturday...There is a small chance for a few showers to redevelop as
LLJ increases overnight, but current model trends and forecast
inhibition make that unlikely. Better chance for precipitation will
wait until the afternoon hours as atmosphere once again destabilizes
with instability axis and persistent area of 0-2km convergence
across eastern Colorado. expect to see first round of thunderstorms
forming in this area before gradually building to the east in line
with expected MCS movement. Not a lot of strong upper level support
to really pin down an area of initiation, but with general consensus
of initiation over northeast Colorado or Nebraska Panhandle and
building southeast through the evening hours as 30-40kt LLJ
intensifies. Confidence a bit lower than some of the latest guidance
and have muted probabilities slightly, limiting best chances to the
NE/KS border. High based storms/strong DCAPE/weak or marginal deep
layer shear lead me to think that primary threat with any organized
storms will be strong wind gusts and without potential 3000+ j/kg
instability available more intense cells (like what occurred tonight)
are very unlikely.  With LLJ feeding ongoing MCS, expect
thunderstorm chances to persist through much of the night although
severe threat will likely diminish.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged on
Sunday although what impact an overnight MCS has on the pattern
makes a repeat of Saturday somewhat unlikely. If a large MCS does
form as expected, Sunday will likely have little in the way of
diurnally driven storms. However if MCS does not develop as
expected, pattern on Sunday not all that different from Saturday
resulting in another round of thunderstorms. Right now, think
sticking with the general consensus of lower potential of storms
Sunday looks to be the most reasonable, although this will strongly
depend on what happens today. On Monday, strong short wave trough
will begin to move into the northern Rockies allowing a cold front
to slowly advance across Nebraska during the day. While front will
likely not arrive soon enough to bring any heat relief, it will
provide a fairly strong focusing mechanism for thunderstorms and
precipitation early Monday evening and into the overnight hours.
While shear and instability will remain marginal for organized
severe weather, front will provide most focused lift seen over the
past several days. Chances will be limited to the vicinity of the
front (likely north of Highway 36) and will bring another chance for
beneficial rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Starting on Tuesday, the upper-level ridge pattern starts to
stall southward and becomes elongated over the majority of
the northern half of the United States as the low pressure moves
eastward over southern Canada. It then reamplifies again over
the South-Central Plains on Friday. This will allow a weak to
moderate strength cold front to pass through the area Tuesday
evening, small chances for showers throughout the rest of the
period, and keeping temperatures above average. There is medium
to high confidence (55-70%) that this cold front will cause
storms to be minimally severe. Storms are expected to be fast-
moving towards the east-northeast with upper-level shear values
being 40 kts. Instability and moisture seems to be the limiting
factor as Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) will be around 775 J/kg as
well as a large surface dew point depression of 35F degrees
could be present and a strong, elevated dry layer above 6 km
high. Primary hazards look to be moderate-to-strong winds and a
slight chance for hail under an inch.

Throughout the remainder of the week, confidence for
afternoon-to-evening showers starts to  progressively decrease
to 10% as diurnal and weak embedded shortwave troughs will be
the main driving forces for showers. Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) has 15% or less for showers over the majority of the
forecast area.

Even with the chances for storms and showers, temperatures will
remain above average, but will decrease over time. There is
medium confidence (50%) that temperatures Tuesday will be in the
upper 90s due to the cold front moving through. The NBM 75th to
25th percentile range spans 8 F degrees and at the time of the
that could drop temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Wednesday,
temperatures will be in the mid 90s whereas Thursday and Friday
will likely drop into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1027 AM
MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A stormy timeframe of weather as an upper level shortwave will
move across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska this
afternoon. PROB30 for storms around GLD and MCK between 00Z and
12Z with an environment that could support some locally higher
downburst winds of up to 50 kts. Cloud ceilings should be VFR in
general however any storms that go over the terminals will
reduce the flight category to MVFR due to the cloud base and
potential for locally heavy rainfall. After 12Z we should see
most of the activity move out of the area.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DDC