982
FXUS63 KGLD 041728
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1128 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms this afternoon into tonight with a marginal
  risk for wind gusts up to 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall of
  1-2". People attending outdoor gatherings are urged to keep
  an eye on the sky, and to consider that.. dangerous cloud-to-
  ground lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
  into next week.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will prevail in the lee of the
central Rockies.. on the western periphery of an upper level
ridge that extends northeastward from the Southern Plains to the
Central Mississippi River Valley and Upper Midwest. An upper
level (~300 mb) shortwave, located in northeast Colorado at 15
UTC this morning, will track NE-NNE through western Nebraska
(away from the NWS Goodland county warning area) this afternoon
and Dakotas (tonight). In the lower levels, a weak surface to
850 mb trough was present over eastern Colorado at 15 UTC..
mainly southeast Colorado (e.g. La Junta, Lamar, Springfield).
Further north, where low overcast and intermittent light showers
are influencing the evolution of low-level height/wind fields,
a modest meso-high was present.

An atypically moist airmass characterized by surface dewpoints
~65-70F, 850 mb dewpoints ~17-18C, near moist-adiabatic (5.5 to
6.0 C/km) mid-level (700-500 mb) lapse rates and precipitable
water values ~1.50" to 1.75" will prevail over the region today.
Without an elevated mixed layer, expect little in the way of
convective inhibition (cap) this afternoon. Weak, muddled
forcing and the presence of a fairly uniform/homogeneous airmass
(assisted by pervasive morning stratus).. lend little
confidence with regard to convective development, coverage and
evolution in the Goodland county warning area today-tonight, as
one might surmise from simulated reflectivity forecasts via
current and recent runs of convection allowing guidance. Weak
low-level/mid-level flow and modest (15-30 knot) effective deep
layer shear suggest that convective organization, if any, would
likely be transient in nature.. and that severe weather
potential, if any, would likely be confined to brief, localized
wet downbursts. People attending outdoor gatherings for
Independence Day are urged to keep an eye on the sky, and to
consider that.. dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning can strike
10 miles away from a thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Not much change to overall forecast thinking. A wash, rinse,
repeat pattern. The maintenance of the monsoonal high over the
4-corners region will invoke upslope flow across our area
towards the front range of the Rockies. With any shortwave
energy riding along the N-periphery of the monsoonal high,
diving cyclonically E/SE across the region which will likely
seen a maintenance of heat and humidity with the S flow, we
should see the development of thunderstorms that could pose
potential threats of wind, hail and locally heavy rain. But
confidence with regards to specifics remain low at this time.
So, overall, on and off afternoon into evening thunderstorm
chances with highs around 90 and lows around 60 with breezy S
winds prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

As of 1725Z, ceilings associated with pervasive stratus have
slowly lifted to 2200-3500 feet AGL (MVFR-VFR). Expect this
trend to continue, with further improvement to VFR this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms could potentially affect
either terminal this afternoon, though.. McCook appears
relatively more likely to be affected. South winds at 10-15
knots may become light and variable this evening and overnight.
Winds will shift to the N and increase to 10-15 knots within a
few hours after sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Vincent