163
FXUS63 KGLD 101822
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1222 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is possible overnight, mainly along and south of I-70.
  There may be patches of dense fog with visibility near one
  quarter of a mile.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Friday night with a
  front moving through Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds
  may accompany stronger storms.

- Seasonal temperatures expected today and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push south as an upper
wave moves through the area. The severe threat has likely ended,
though some gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall
may persist for another hour or two south of Highway 96.
Otherwise, patchy fog and areas of low clouds will develop
towards sunrise with the light upslope winds and near saturated
low levels. The fog will burn off by mid morning but the low
clouds may persist through late morning. For the afternoon, CAMs
show an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible near the lee
trough which extends across northeast Colorado and into the Tri
Border area. However, with subtle height rises associated with
the upper ridge nosing in from the southwest, confidence is low
anything will develop. Shear and instability will be weak and
not expecting severe storms if something should pop up. Tonight,
south winds will be advecting moisture into the area and patchy
fog may develop once again, mainly south of Interstate 70,
persisting into Friday morning.

On Friday, zonal flow over the top of the ridge will continue
through northern Colorado and the Central High Plains. Scattered
showers and storms are forecast to develop in northern Colorado
and move into the eastern plains of northeast Colorado during
the afternoon and evening, rapidly weakening as they do so.
Another cluster of showers and storms will accompany a cold
front moving through central Nebraska late Friday night. There
is currently a marginal risk for severe storms with this
activity for wind and hail in the Kansas and Nebraska border
area.

Temperatures will be near normal today with highs in the mid to
upper 80s, warming to slightly above normal on Friday with lower
90s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Starting Sunday, an upper level ridge starts to amplify in the
Central Plains and into Montana as a low-pressure system in the
Northwest slides northeast into Southern Canada on Monday. Once
the low-pressure passes through, southwesterly flow returns and
will stay until a broad upper-level trough comes through from
the north, eventually returning back into the ridge pattern late
in the week. This will allow chances for showers and cooling
temperatures over next week. Monday and Tuesday will have the
first potential for showers as the cold front moves through and
transitions into southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves on
tuesday. There is high confidence (80%) that the cold front will
occur Monday afternoon, but there is medium confidence (50%)
that showers will linger into Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, conditions for showers look to be
similar to Monday and Tuesday. A broader cold front will pass
through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing a
drier air mass and a ridge pattern over the area. Confidence
decreases from medium to low (50-20%) over the two days as there
is a large variability on when the cold front will pass through.
While there is a decent chance (up to 45%) for showers across
the area, latest guidance favors the southern half of the area
for accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch of rain based
on the southerly motion and timing of the front.

Temperatures will start in the low 90s Sunday and dip into the
upper 80s and low 90s Monday. For Tuesday onwards, afternoon
highs should remain in the 70s as a 5-degree temperature spread
starts to form over the forecast area that could potentially put
highs into the upper 70s. There is medium confidence (60%) that
temperature will rise later in the week as we move back into the
ridge pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Winds will be mainly out of the south with gusts
around 20 mph possible. Low confidence (<5%) in patchy low-
level wind shear affecting KMCK around 09Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK/Moeller
AVIATION...Rhoades