569
FXUS63 KGLD 311115
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early fog this morning should give way to clearer skies and
  near average temperatures in the 80s. A few showers/storms are
  possible during the afternoon and evening.

- The unsettled pattern looks to continue over the next week,
  leading to another couple of low-end chances at showers and
  storms along with near average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

During the early morning hours, Clear skies were present west of
Highway 83 while locales to the east were under fog, including some
dense patches. Recent observations show some drier air is slowly
mixing in with weak westerly/northwesterly winds, which should
continue to erode the fog slowly through the remainder of the early
morning hours. Once the sun is up and starts warming temperatures,
any lingering fog should dissipate fairly quickly. The question is
how long the lower level moisture will linger and keep clouds over
the area. As long as the clouds don`t linger past the morning hours,
temperatures should warm to around 80 underneath sunny skies. For
any location that sees clouds linger, there is a chance that
temperatures stay in the 60s and 70. With the upper pattern forecast
to keep northwest flow over the area as the ridge slowly amplifies
and the surface pressure field forecast to become broader, winds
should remain a bit on the lighter side from the north around 5 to
15 mph.

Late this afternoon and evening, there is a small chance for storms
generally east of Highway 25 as long as the drier air does not
completely remove the moisture from the area. Weak shortwaves in the
northwest flow would allow a few showers and storms to develop as
long as moisture lingers. Any storm that develops would likely be
sub-severe with low instability (mid-level lapse rates below 7.5
C/km and CAPE around 500-1500 J/kg), low effective/sfc-6km shear
below 30 kts, and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. If the environment ends up
being a bit more supportive, a single marginally severe storm with
hail round an inch and wind gusts to 65 mph could be possible. Any
chances should end later in the evening, closer to midnight barring
any strong outflow from nearby storms that push through the area.
Tonight, lows should generally be in the 50s, with some 60`s for
eastern portions of the area where cloud cover and some low level
moisture may be able to push back in as winds are forecast to shift
to out of the east for a short time. If enough moisture moves back
in, some fog and dense fog may be possible again for those along and
east of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The overall pattern in the long-term is expected to remain fairly
consistent. We will have a high pressure system over the Four
Corners region with low pressure to the northeast of the Great
Plains. This will leave the CWA under northwesterly flow, which
generally creates unsettled weather. This will support moderate
temperatures, like in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and a few chances at
precipitation. The main limiting factors to precipitation over the
next week will be mid-level moisture return and instability. We do
look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would
provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two
ingredients are in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period.
Generally clear skies and winds from the north around 10 kts are
expected for most of the period. There could be a few gusts
around 15-20 kts between 16-00Z. There is also a 5% chance of a
shower/storm moving over the terminal between 21-04Z.

For KMCK... Dense fog and low ceilings around or below 500ft are
forecast for the first few hours of the TAF period. There is a
chance that dry air gets mixed in and conditions improve within
the first two hours. Otherwise, ceilings should gradually lift
and clear by 18Z, allowing for VFR conditions. There is a 10%
chance for showers/storms between about 20-04Z. Otherwise, the
fog and low ceilings could return again after 06Z tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.
CO...None.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK