635
FXUS63 KGLD 031846 CCA
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1246 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Saturday with high
  chances for precipitation (rain and snow) and below normal
  temperatures. Some thunderstorms may be possible today (severe
  storms not anticipated).

- Accumulating snow is forecast through Friday morning roughly
  along and north of a Parks, Nebraska to Kit Carson, Colorado
  line with light accumulations currently forecast. 20% chance
  for locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches around the Tri-State
  border area due to localized banding.

- About a 35-40% chance blowing snow will impact travel late
  Friday afternoon into the evening along a cold frontal passage.

- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last into at
  least the middle of the next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

An upper level low is developing across the Inter-Mountain west and
will be the main synoptic feature the short term period. This
morning a 700mb jet streak putting the CWA into the left exit region
of this jet will slowly increase increase precipitation chances
this morning and throughout the day today. Precipitation may
start off as snow or a rain/snow mix as temperatures are
forecast to remain around the freezing mark before slowly
warming across Greeley, Wichita and Cheyenne (CO). Precipitation
will then begin to overspread the rest of the area through the
day as chance for precipitation look to have increased to
around 70% area wide. CAPE is forecast to increase as well with
the jet with around 500 j/kg of SB and MUCAPE and wind shear of
50-60 knots would not be surprised if some stronger cells are
able to develop. The other part to keep an eye on will be a
surface convergence boundary that looks to be draped across
Cheyenne county Colorado back across Wallace and Greeley
counties that may be able lead to some landspout formation.
Lapse rates are decent around 7-8C and with the amount of wind
shear present hodographs are curved along with very low LCL`s
present as moisture will be increasing as well. If a storm is
able to get its act all the way together some hail up to nickel
size would be possible. At this time, think the landspout
potential is around 5% and the hail potential around 3% of
occurring.

In typical High Plains fashion, we will also have to keeping an eye
on snowfall on the cooler side of this system thanks to thicker
cloud cover across the higher elevations of the Colorado counties.
Some guidance and even some wet bulb zero guidance shows being
the dominant precipitation type for the majority of today and
overnight, if this is the case then will need to keep an eye on
higher snowfall amounts. Some ensemble members do show bands of
higher amounts around 3 inches or so roughly from Highway 27 on
west so this potential may end up as more of a mesoanalysis
threat to see where these heavier bands of snow do set up at.
Overall highs for today have trended down into the upper 30s
across the west to the low 50s across the east. Continued cloud
cover tonight does look to keep low temperatures from
completely bottoming out as low temperatures are forecast to
remain in the upper 20s to the upper 30s across the area. I did
add in some patchy fog across the area as well as I do think
this is a possibility in between precipitation overnight as it
becomes less widespread. Thinking for this is due to the low dew
point depressions, a freshly saturated boundary layer and a
climatologically favored ESE wind for fog formation.

Friday, the better lift shifts slightly to the east as seen on
isentropics and with the overall synoptic pattern as the bulk of the
precipitation as rain favors locales along and south of a
Norton to Cheyenne Wells line. High temperatures at this time
are currently forecast to be similar to today but I do have
concerns that its still to warm especially if the stratus can
hang on through the day longer; so this may be a potential
target of opportunity to keep an eye on in future forecasts.
During the afternoon a cold front is forecast to move through
the area which is forecast to bring additional precipitation
through the area with it. The question will be how much will
accompany it as drier mid level air is forecast to be not
trailing to far behind the front. With this said, there may be
some Snow Squall potential with this as there is a large area of
SB CAPE co located with the front along with 0-3km lapse rates
around 7-7.5C/km. The other thing that is catching my eye is the
increasing amount of cold air over 3 hours around the 800mb
layer where it starts around freezing and then falls to -4C 3
hours later. Winds at this time are forecast to become breezy as
well behind the front gusting 30-35 knots potentially as high
as 40 knots if the RAP 850mb wind field is correct as those
winds would be able to be mixed down as there does appear to be
1-3mb pressure rises over 1 hour and 3-5 mb pressure rises over
3 hours according to both the NAM and the RAP. At this time
confidence in a snow squall would be around 10- 15%.

Temperatures Friday night will be the main story as they are
forecast to fall into the teens to the mid 20s across the area.
After the warm temperatures that was realized last week some spring
fever may have hit so be sure to cover any sensitive vegetation
along with making sure that new born livestock are properly
protected  as wind chills are forecast to fall into the single
digits with the winds and the cold temperatures combine.

Dry weather is forecast on Saturday with a surface high directly
across the area. High temperatures are again forecast to be in
the 40s for highs along with breezy northerly winds around
20-25 mph sustained gusting up to 35 mph leading to a brisk day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, much of the extended period
will remain dry with a meandering 500/700mb ridge over the western
portion of the country on into the Rockies being the main wx feature
in the Plains region. The system for Saturday morning has continued
to trend further south than previous runs. The earlier forecast had
the northern edge of the low to the south grazing our south zones
with a 15-20% chance of light snow I-70 and south.

Currently, surface ridge building south is a bit more aggressive,
but still a low chance 15-20% for some light snow showers
along/south of Highway 40 w/ E/NE flow working into the northern
periphery of the low to the south, there remains some low level
moisture present to trigger a few snow showers w/ no accum expected.
Tuesday evening, there is a shortwave that grazes the northern
periphery zones, triggering a 15-20% chance for a shower mainly Hwy
34 and north.

The passage of the Tuesday evening system will open the region up to
NW flow with the potential for gusts in the 20-30 mph, especially in
Colorado. Dry conditions for Wed-Thu will bring about some localized
near critical fire wx conditions as RH levels to drop into the upper
teens/lower 20s.

For temps, a warming trend is expected for both highs and lows, but
more noticeable for the range of daytime highs. This weekend, highs
in the 40s on Saturday will give way to upper 50s through the lower
60s for Sunday. 60s on Monday will give way to 70s each day from
Tuesday onward. Overnight lows Saturday night will range in the 20s,
upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday night, then mainly 30s thereafter.
Thursday night will have upper 30s to the lower 40s for a range.
Wind chill readings Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in
the lower to mid teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For KGLD... Light rain showers are expected for the first hour
or two of the period as a band of rain moves through the area.
Once that passes, ceilings are forecast to lower to around
1500-2000ft as moisture continues to push into the area from the
south. Showers and potential thunderstorms are then forecast to
develop around and after 21Z as moisture continues pushing in
and with the weak surface low and mid level convergence moving
in. When the precipitation is more rain, ceilings are forecast
to be lower to around 500-1000ft. If a thunderstorms moves
through, it may mix the lower atmosphere a bit and lift ceilings
above 1000ft. Most of the precipitation should end between
00-03Z with ceilings below 1000ft and the potential for fog. Fog
is more likely later in the night after 06-09Z and could drop
visibility to /14 of a mile, though the forecast is currently
higher due to the chance for rain and storms in the area.
Conditions will remain IFR through the remainder of the period
with another chance for rain late in the morning.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the first few hours.
A band of showers about 2-3 counties south is making its way
north and is forecast to move over the terminal around 21Z.
Behind it, additional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are
expected to develop and lead to a prolonged period of
precipitation. Ceilings are forecast to lower below 2000ft as
the air moistens. Going into the overnight hours, ceilings are
forecast to lower further to around 500ft unless an isolated
storm or shower moves over the terminal. Additional showers are
forecast on the wrap around side of the system after 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KAK