683
FXUS63 KGLD 301016
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
415 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Severe weather threat continues to return with afternoon and
  evening storms today and Monday. 50-70 MPH winds are the main
  hazards, but 1-2 inch hail is also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A 500 mb high over Missouri will work to keep us under southwesterly
flow for the next couple of days. Down at 850 mb, the high is over
the Carolinas, but still expands its influence through most of
Kansas. This will allow us to have some weak low-level troughs move
in from the north-northwest, spurring some convection, potentially
severe. It will also keep the low level flow fairly chaotic,
preventing any strong, persistent surface level winds for most of
the CWA.

The weaker flow will allow the sun to efficiently warm the surface,
as long as it`s unimpeded. However, we are expecting some mid and
upper level clouds to ride along the edge of the 500 mb high, likely
covering the northwestern half of the CWA both today and tomorrow.
Today`s highs look to warm into the low 90s where there are
persistent clouds. There is also a 10% chance these clouds could
produce some light showers around sunrise this morning. Where the
clouds are thin or non-existent, temperatures will likely warm into
upper 90s to triple digits. Most likely areas to hit 100 degrees
today will be along and southwest of a line from Norton to Tribune,
KS. There is also a 15% chance some organized southwesterly flow at
the surface is able to form, generally under 20 kts, but this could
push the temperatures closer to 105.

Convection this afternoon and evening looks to fire off in eastern
Colorado and move northeast into the CWA around 21-0Z. Any severe
threat looks to be coming to an end around 6Z, but storms may linger
until closer to 9-12Z. Wind looks to be the primary threat with
these storm as inverted-V soundings are seen across the area. Gusts
in the 40-60 kts range are the most likely threat, but we cannot
ruled out gusts closer to 70 kts. Mid-level instabilty lowers the
potential for a hail threat, however hodographs are nothing but an
inflow notch. This may support splitting and left mover supercells,
bringing the hail threat back into the picture. Without good
instability to loft hail, max hail size would likely be under 1.5
inches, if any does form. There is also a low (5-10%) chance that
these storms may train, leading to a flash flooding risk. However, a
large, dry layer under the storms keeps this threat pretty low.
These risks cover the bulk majority of the CWA, but areas near the
Tri-State border have the best chance at seeing stronger convection.

Overnight, temperatures look to largely cool into the 60s, save for
locations east of U.S. 83. This area may remain in the 70s from a
combination of southerly flow and clouds cover. Once again, there
may be some near-sunrise showers along and north of U.S. 36.

Monday should be a couple of degrees cooler, thanks largely to
additional cloud cover. Effectively, the entire CWA looks to see
temperatures 2-4 degrees cooler than Sunday. Not a big cool down,
but it`s something.

Monday`s convection may begin to move into the southwestern CWA
around as early as 21-23Z after firing off in eastern Colorado,
similar to Sunday`s. If this happens, it`s possible the storms will
be on the weaker side, maybe able to produce some 65 MPH gusts.
However, if storms move into the CWA closer to the 0-4Z timeframe,
the front driving all of this convection would likely push farther
east, just past the Colorado border, and fire off a broken line of
convection. This has the potential to be more severe as the shear
profile will be better suited for hail around 1-2+ inches, and a
very low (<2%) chance of a brief tornado. The severe threat for this
option would last until around 9Z with lingering storms persisting
until sunrise. In either case, storms will be once again moving
towards the northeast. Overnight temperatures Monday night look to
mimic Sunday night`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Tuesday through Thursday are forecast to have roughly the same
pattern, with upper ridging over the southeast and an upper trough
over the northwest. This will keep the area in southwest flow aloft
and provide minimal air mass change. As such, temperatures remain
forecast to reach the 90s during the daytime, and the 60`s/70s
during the night. Winds will also likely remain around 5-15 mph
through much of the period with the low pressure lingering over the
area. Storms will be possible each day, likely forming along the
higher terrain to the west and pushing east towards the area. As
such, storms chances will generally favor Eastern Colorado, with
lesser chances further east. Most storms should be sub-severe, but
a severe storm or two may be possible like the prior days.

Next weekend is when there is more divergence in what may happen.
The currently forecast and likely scenario is that the pattern
remains roughly the same with highs in the 90s, light winds, and
afternoon evening storm chances. The storm chances may be a bit
higher as more robust shortwaves may push through with the upper
trough potentially deepening.

The other scenario is that the trough ejects east and pushes through
the Plains. With this, a strong cold front would likely push through
Friday or Saturday and give the area a good chance for storms and
severe weather. Once the front passes, colder air would then filter
in from the north and likely give us a break from the 90s. Storm
chances would also likely be minimal with the drier and cooler air
over the area. This scenario currently has a 25-35% chance of
occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions for much of the period until later this evening
before storm chances increase as storms look to develop later this
afternoon along the front range before advancing ESE toward the
terminals. Coverage is still somewhat uncertain at this time, so
have continued with PROB30 mention. In the meantime, winds remain
generally around or under 10kts through the day as the terminals
reside within the axis of the lee trough. Winds may begin to veer to
the ESE through the afternoon in advance of any potential storms
again later this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TOP