577
FXUS63 KGLD 052308
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
508 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will continue off and on through tomorrow with snow
  mixing in this evening generally along and west of KS 27.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for eastern Colorado
  for Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall
  accumulations up to 5 inches and visibility dropping down to 1
  mile in heavy snow and patchy blowing snow. Travel may become
  hazardous.

- Tuesday and Wednesday nights, temperatures are forecast to
  cool below freezing. A Freeze Warning has been issued for
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning for areas along and west
  of KS 27 and a Freeze Watch remains for areas along and east
  of KS 25. Sensitive vegetation may be impacted by freezing
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Today, precipitation will persist off and on, and temperatures will
remain capped in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy fog will also persist
throughout the day and into the overnight hours. Some sub-severe
storms are possible this afternoon, generally south of I-70, moving
to the east. A brief gust up around 55 MPH would be the biggest
hazard, but that is a very low chance.

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to mid 30s, due
to CAA, upslope flow, and the ongoing precipitation absorbing latent
heat. As mentioned, the precipitation will be continuing and snow
will mix in to parts of the CWA. Most likely areas to see snow by
Wednesday morning will be along and west of KS 27, but locations as
far east as KS 25 may also see brief snow. Higher snowfall totals
are expected in the western CWA, up to 5 inches is forecast around
the Flagler area, but pockets up to 8 inches are within the realm of
possibility. Locations along and west of a line from Yuma to
Burlington, to U.S. 40 are expected to see around 3 inches of snow.
For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our
Colorado counties starting this evening and lasting into Wednesday
afternoon. The column of counties to the east of the Advisory are
forecast to get anywhere from a trace to 2.5 inches with the highest
amounts in Sherman and Wallace counties.

This snow will impact travel along I-70 in Sherman and Kit Carson
counties. With the recent warm temperatures and rain, we are
expecting the first inch or two of snow that falls to melt and turn
into a slush. Once a frozen base layer is established, snow will
accumulate, potentially leading to a layer of ice under wet, heavy
snow. And the snow will be wet and heavy as snow liquid ratios are
in the 1:5-9 range. This will make it more difficult to move the
snow by hand, but will also make it more difficult for the wind to
blow the snow. Combined with easterly winds generally in the 5-15
kts range, blowing snow is not a likely hazard. However, early
tomorrow morning, high snowfall rates may briefly reduce
visibilities down to 1 mile.

Patchy fog is also expected tonight across most of the area. Dense
fog is not likely, but cannot be completely ruled out. Freezing fog
is also possible along and west KS 25. This could lead to slick
conditions forming sooner across this area.

Tomorrow, precipitation will start tapering off to the south in the
midday into the afternoon. Temperatures will likely remain in the
30s for locations that receive measurable snow, but warm into the
40s for the rest of the CWA. This will work to allow any snow to
slowly melt, but there is a 65% chance western portions of the CWA
will still have snow as night falls.

Wednesday evening and overnight, we are expected dry, northwesterly
air to move into the region. This will erode any remaining cloud
cover, allowing temperatures to rapidly cool. Over the past 24
hours, the evening air looks to be more westerly than northerly,
keeping the cloud cover around longer. If this occurs, temperatures
may only drop to around 30-35 for most of the area. However, if the
clouds clear out in the evening or early overnight, temperatures in
the western CWA will cool into the low 20s while the eastern CWA
remains around freezing. Due to the likelihood of temperatures
cooling to less than 28 degrees, locations along and west of KS 27
have been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Areas along and east of KS
25 remain in a Freeze Watch. Frost is also likely Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Thursday`s upper flow looks to have northwesterly winds with a
trough located over the southwest parts of the CONUS. Temperatures
look to warm, with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s for the
majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). As for the western parts
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in CO the highs look to be in
the mid 60s. Wind Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-25 mph, with
the highest gusts being in Yuma County around 30 mph. Looking at
precipation chances, guidance is showing about a 20% chance for the
most northwest portions of the CWA. The timing for this would be in
the overnight hours, and currently temperatures look to be above
freezing so the precipitation type should be mainly be rain. The
severe potential looks to be very low. Guidance has the maximum CAPE
values anywhere from 100-300 J/kg.

Moving on to the weekend (Friday-Sunday), guidance is showing good
constancy with the upper flow. The upper trough detaches and should
keep the winds being northwesterly. Friday highs should be in the
70s with lows in the low to mid 40s. Winds look to remain tame in
the range of 10-15 mph. There is a small chance of seeing
precipation in the early morning (12 am). Guidance has shown some
disagreement with the Probability of Exceeding 0.01". Currently the
LREF has about 15-20% chance north of I-70. The NBM has 5%-20%
chance with the main coverage of precip over Yuma, County.

Saturday will be warmer than Friday, with highs in low to mid 80s
along with lows in the 40s. Wind gusts look to be higher with values
in the 25-35 mph out of the northwest. As for precipitation chances,
Saturday has the highest potential in the long range forecast.
Currently, the timing of this looks to be Saturday afternoon into
early Sunday morning. The Probability of Exceeding 0.01" looks to be
around 20-50%. The main driving force behind this system looks to be
from a shortwave disturbance with a surface low. Looking at
guidance, there are signs of there being a front / dryline with this
system. Looking in the warm sector there are dew points in the 50-60
degree range. CAPE looks to be showing signs of being beneficial for
storms. Guidance is also showing signs of there being potential of
severe weather. However there is one key thing, this is five days
out and there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with timing and
location of the system.

Sunday, starting with temperatures highs look to be back in the 70s
and lows in the 40s. Winds look to remain calm throughout the day as
well. For precipitation chances, the main focus would be on the
system on Saturday and the timing on when it moves through the CWA.
Monday looks to warm up compared to the weekend. The high
temperatures for the day will be in the 80s, with lows in the low to
mid 40s. Winds look to calm and out of the west.

Tuesday, the upper level flow begins to transition into a ridge. The
new pattern will bring warmer temperatures. The highs are currently
forecasted in the low to mid 90s. There is some uncertainty with how
strong the ridge is. If the ridge gets stronger the probability of
exceeding 90 degrees is about 20%. One other thing to note
unfortunately is the Relative Humidity values. Currently, they are
forecasted to be in the teens. The low temperatures look to be in
mid to high 40s. This is seven days out so there is a solid amount
of uncertainty and a lot can change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR to near airport minimum conditions are
forecast for much of the next 12-18 hours. Conditions may start
VFR with obs around 23Z reporting ceilings near 3000ft and
visibility at 10SM. But conditions should worsen within the
first few hours with observations north of the terminals
reporting fog and ceilings lowering to 500-1500ft. Once ceilings
lower, they should remain low through 15-18Z. As mentioned, fog
is also a concern with freezing fog forecast for KGLD. KMCK may
also seem some freezing fog, though maybe not quite dense.
Finally, keep an eye out for snow to start mixing in after 04Z.
The snow may be heavy, lowering visibility below 1SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM MDT
     /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-013-027-041.
     Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for KSZ002-003-014-015-028-029-042.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for
     COZ090>092.
     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     NEZ079.
     Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...KAK