517
FXUS63 KGLD 022035
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Low chances around 10-30% each day for a few isolated storms
  through much of the work week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the
  week, but overall severe risk will be low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

An upper ridge currently located from the Southern Plains to the
southeast CONUS is forecast to amplify over the Central Plains
through Saturday. The High Plains remains on the western fringe
of the ridge under a weak southwest flow. This will keep low
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast due to
embedded weak disturbances rotating around the ridge. For
tonight, mountain and Front Range convection this afternoon will
move northeast with the mean flow, with slim chances of
reaching far northeast Colorado late in the evening (Yuma
County) before dissipating.

On Thursday, height rises are forecast over the High Plains as
the ridge begins to build and the stronger flow aloft displaced
into Wyoming and the northern Rockies ahead of a Pacific
Northwest trough. At the surface, the lee trough will mix
eastward into Kansas with lower dew points across the area. CAMs
show convection possibly initiating on the boundary well east
of the area but moving away. Other more isolated convection may
develop in eastern Colorado in the drier air and persist into
the evening. Overall, precipitation chances locally will be slim
to none.

On Friday, the ridge amplifies along the Missouri River valley
into the central and northern plains. Flow aloft remains rather
weak on the western side, but appears to be an embedded
shortwave. At the surface, southerly winds will be advecting
higher dew points into the area. CAMs suggest convection will
initiate in the afternoon in southeast Colorado with the
approaching disturbance, with the 3-km NAM showing additional
storms further north into Nebraska by late in the afternoon and
evening. Instability is on the weak side at 500-1000 j/kg and
deep layer shear is around 20 kts. Confidence is low regarding
storm coverage given the overall weak forcing and ridging
aloft, and the environmental parameters suggest mainly pulse or
multi-cell clusters with a low probability of producing
marginally severe wind and hail.

On Saturday, the ridge continues to be the main feature aloft
with weak southwest flow over Colorado. Southeast surface winds
will maintain dew points in the 50s and 60s. Much like the
previous day, CAMs show convection initiating in the afternoon
over southeast Colorado as well as the mountains and Front
Range. Mean flow will take them northeast through the evening
and overnight hours with 20-30% probabilities of reaching the
area. Instability and shear remain weak, so the probability of
severe weather will be low.

Temperatures for the period remain much above normal with the
building ridge aloft. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s
in Colorado to the upper 90s and lower 100s in Kansas and
Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Sunday through early next week, large upper level ridge over
the Dakotas and Minnesota starts sliding and amplifying towards
the east as the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest
region begins moving east into Southern Canada. This will cause
the pattern to shift into zonal flow over the majority of
Northern CONUS on Wednesday. Upper level southwesterly flow is
still expected until the low pressure system completely moves
through transitioning to a more westerly flow. With diurnal
heating and deepening embedded shortwave troughs, there is high
confidence (75%) that a weak storm could happen Sunday evening
over the northern portions of the forecast area. While there is
storm supporting mixed layer (ML) CAPE value of 640 J/kg, storm
motion will be relatively slow. Heavy rainfall would be the main
potential hazard as precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to
be 1.45 inches.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for afternoon
and evening showers do increase as the low pressure continues
to move further northeast. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
for Monday evening will be 35-40% in northern Yuma county and
taper down to 10% towards Gove county. Tuesday afternoon looks
to be similar to Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front will pass
through from the low pressure system with ML CAPE value at
840J/kg and a disorganized wind shear profile. There is low to
medium confidence (35-40%) that this will happen as there is
inconsistency within the guidance. PoPs for Wednesday evening is
ranging from 30-35% throughout the entire area, but there is
low confidence that this will stay as the pattern changes.

Temperatures are forecast to start above normal with the
potential to drop back into seasonal temperatures with Sunday
and Monday highs being in the low to mid 90s. There is growing
uncertainty with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
potential cold front moving through. NBM 75th to 25th
percentiles have a 9 degree difference from the forecasted
temperature with potential temperatures dipping further into the
upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK/Moeller
AVIATION...Holdren