074
FXUS63 KGLD 080610
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1210 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms again this evening with a low
  probability, less than 20%, of wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday night with areas
  of 1-2" possible in northwest Kansas.

- Above normal temperatures today, cooling to near normal on
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, gradually
lifting out to the north. A cold front will traverse the area
through the morning and afternoon, ending up generally along or
just south of a Hill City to Tribune line in northwest Kansas
by mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will initiate along
the front around that time in a weakly unstable environment,
REFS shows SBCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg near the front, and 30 kts
of deep layer shear. The parameters suggest a marginally severe
storm or two will be possible with wind and hail, but overall
the severe threat will be on the low end. Other storms will
initiate along the Colorado Front Range in the post frontal
upslope regime. They will make their way into the area Tuesday
night. Instability remains weak, MUCAPE is less than 1000 j/kg,
and deep layer shear decreases slightly to around 25 kts. So the
overall severe threat remains low, though cannot completely
discount a marginally severe wind gust. 12-hour precipitation
amounts from the CAMs through 12z Wednesday show areas of 1-2"
as the storms take on a somewhat linear configuration with some
training, primarily across northwest Kansas. This may lead to
areas of excessive rainfall and possible flooding. Storms move
east and out of the area near or shortly after 12z Wednesday
morning. Models show weak instability lingering into Wednesday
afternoon in northwest Kansas with 30-35 kts of deep layer
shear. While the front will be well to the south, may see an
isolated storm or two with a disturbance moving through the
zonal flow aloft and maybe some jet help as well with a right
entrance region over the area. However, severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal today as the front moves
through the area. Upper 90s will be possible again from Hill
City to Tribune in northwest Kansas, with upper 80s to lower 90s
to the north. Temperatures cool to near normal on Wednesday with
highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to be supportive of ridging moving in
overhead at 500-mb Thursday morning. This would be producing a
surface high pressure across the Midwest. At the same time, there
looks to be a surface low to the north across South-Central Canada
and portions of the Northern United States. Weak southerly winds
would be favored across the forecast area by this pattern. High
temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s, and possibly
lower 90s. Temperatures would be allowed to reach into the mid and
upper 90s if southerly flow were stronger, but the current forecast
would suggest that the surface high in the Midwest and the surface
low to the north will be too far north to have a significant impact
on southerly flow. Additionally, there are not any major mid level
features that would promote strong winds mixing down to the surface,
suggesting that highs may be a bit cooler than in recent weeks. As
for precipitation, showers may be lingering across portions of
Northwest Kansas and far East-Central Colorado in association with
convection from the previous night. Otherwise, precipitation is not
expected the rest of the day Thursday.

A surface low is favored to form across the Northern and Central
Plains in the right entrance region of a modest 50-70 kt 500-mb jet
streak Friday. A cold front looks to be trailing the surface
low as a surface high intrudes into the Northern United States.
Southerly flow is anticipated out ahead of the surface low,
though it is currently uncertain how soon the cold front will
pass over the forecast region. LREF standard deviation in wind
direction highlights this point, as a broad area from the
Dakotas down through the South-Central High Plains shows a
spread of 70-90 degrees in wind direction. Additionally, there
is some uncertainty in how strong the cold front will be.
Forecast highs Friday are currently in the low to mid 90s,
though about 10-20% of NBM solutions show a faster, stronger
cold front which would prevent highs from reaching the 90s. Dry
conditions are also forecast across our Eastern Colorado
Counties, where winds are primarily expected out of the west to
northwest. LREF guidance shows a 30-50% chance across this area
that relative humidity (RH) values drop below 20%. This may
implicate fire weather as a concern, especially if stronger
winds are experienced with the cold front Friday. NBM guidance
across Western Yuma County shows around a 1 in 3 chance that
wind gusts will reach 25 mph or higher. Confidence in Red Flag
conditions being met (25 mph or greater gusts, and 15% or less
RH for 3 hours) is less than 5%, although this will continue to
be a point to watch as we approach the weekend.

By Saturday, another trough is favored to be digging into the
Western United States, moving eastward toward the forecast region
through the weekend. A surface low at the leading edge is forecast
to move into the Central Rockies Saturday, allowing southerly winds
to return to the forecast area. Even so, highs only have about a 30-
40% chance on Saturday, and a 40-50% chance on Sunday to reach back
into the 90s. This could certainly depend on how cool things can
drop with Friday`s cold front, but the surface winds also have an
easterly component as opposed to a westerly component, which would
prevent the hotter solution. There is the possibility for some
precipitation on Saturday ahead of the low, but NBM guidance
suggests that most areas have less than a 20% chance of receiving
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. These chances increase a
bit on Sunday into the 25-40% range as the low moves into Eastern
Colorado and Wyoming. These higher probabilities are primarily
across Southwest Nebraska and Northern Yuma County in Colorado,
where a warm front may reside. However, some storms may develop
ahead of an incoming cold front as well. Some storms may be allowed
to become severe, as LREF guidance shows up to a 75% chance that
sfc-500mb shear will be above 30 kts. Even so, the same
guidance shows that it is most likely (>80%) that storms will
only have a few hundred J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) at their disposal. Therefore, the
favored solution is that showers and weak thunderstorms would
occur, with a storm or two that could become marginally severe.

The cold front from this system is currently forecast to pass
through the area sometime Sunday evening or overnight. There are
still some timing issues with the system`s eastward progression,
though temperatures are expected to be a bit more temperate upon
passage of this cold front. High temperatures are currently forecast
in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday. It is important to note that
GEFS and EC ensembles show larger amounts of spread in 500-mb
heights ahead of the trough, which would be associated with a faster
progression. If this is the case, these conditions could be
experienced as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.
Brief gusty winds of 20-30 kts may accompany any thunderstorm.
Surface winds will shift to north and northeast by mid to late
morning behind a cold front, gusting up to 20 kts through the
afternoon before diminishing. Scattered thunderstorms will move
through the area once again Tuesday night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024