493
FXUS63 KGLD 120930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the entire Tri-State area
  Thursday as low relative humidity combines with southerly
  winds gusting up to 40 mph. All outdoor burning should be
  avoided.

- Record/near record high temperatures possible Thursday in
  Goodland, Colby and Tribune...see CLIMATE section below.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for eastern Colorado on
  Friday. There is increasing confidence gusts of 60-65 MPH will
  occur in this area. Blowing dust may also become a concern.

- Fire weather concerns return Saturday through Tuesday across
  various parts of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Today-tonight...an upper level trough axis west of the area this
morning will move across the area this afternoon with upper level
ridging moving in tonight, ahead of an upper level trough moving on
to the west coast. Only impacts from the passing trough will be some
cloudiness. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 65 to 75
degree range. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 30 to 40
degree range.

Thursday...southerly winds strengthen from late morning through the
afternoon as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the
approaching upper level trough. Wind gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range
are forecast. Locally developed blowing dust/dust storm parameters
are not favorable for blowing dust, primarily due to winds in the
0.5-1km layer being well below the needed criteria of at least
~45kts. Other parameters such as 0-2km (steep) and 2-2.5km lapse
rates (fairly stable) are favorable however. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Record/near record
high temperatures are possible, see the CLIMATE section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

A High Wind Watch has been issued for eastern Colorado for Friday.
We are monitoring the potential for other hazards with the windy
system Friday. The weekend will still be a bit breezy, but much more
mild than Friday.

Late Thursday night through Saturday mid-day, our next major trough
will be sweeping through. At 850 mb Friday, a large portion of the
central CONUS has winds in the 50-65 kts range. We have around 65-
75% confidence eastern Colorado between U.S. highways 34 and 40 will
see gusts in the 50-60 kts range, thus a High Wind Watch was issued.
Locations to the east of the Colorado boarder have less confidence
of observing 50 kts gusts, mainly due to the position of the center
of the low during peak mixing. We are not ruling out the potential
of 50+ kts gusts in Kansas and Nebraska, in fact due to the low
expected to arrive in the mid-day, pressure rises in the evening and
overnight hours could mix down some high winds. Confidence for the
evening and overnight high wind threat as increased to about 40% and
would impact the entire Tri-State area.

The associated cold front will cause precipitation Friday. We know
precipitation will occur across most of the area. The P-type is
looking to be mainly rain during the day with snow slowly mixing in
during the evening and overnight hours from west to east. However,
there is an increasing potential the southeastern 1/4 of the CWA is
dry-slotted, greatly reducing the QPF it would receive. The 300K
flow shows a moderate amount of moisture flowing into central and
eastern Kansas and into Nebraska. The eastern portions of the CWA
may see some of this direct moisture flow, however majority of our
moisture will need to be wrapped around the low to impact most of
the CWA. This setup also support part of the CWA becoming dry-
slotted. Also, this will limit our precipitation chances and amounts
ahead of the cold front, but keeps PoPs high for cold sector
precipitation later in the day. The current path of the low travels
across the southern half of the CWA, allowing more precipitation to
fall in the northern CWA.

Potential hazards with this system are still pretty numerous. With
the current timing and track of the system, we should expect to see
some patchy blowing dust as the front moves in, mainly in the
southeastern CWA. As long as we get the expected moisture
with/following the cold front, precipitation should quickly
limit/eliminate the blowing dust threat. Since the southeastern CWA
has a higher chance at being dry-slotted, it also has a higher
chance of seeing blowing dust. Confidence in blowing dust reducing
visibility down to less than 1/2 mile is about 15-20% around noon or
early in the afternoon. As the cold front passes through the area,
winds will abruptly become northwesterly and speed up. There is a
slim chance (~5%) we could see a haboob from this sudden wind
change. Lapse rates from the GFS and CMC-NH show near surface lapse
rates of 9-11 C/km ahead of the front, where the winds will be
lighter, and around 6.5-10 C/km behind the front, where the strong
winds are. These lapse rates support blowing dust with the FROPA,
but the spotty lapse rates behind the front along with the
precipitation would quickly eliminate the blowing dust concern. For
reference, local research suggests low-level (0-2 km) lapse rates
should be at least 9.5 C/km to support blowing dust.

If the low comes through a few hours earlier and the wet bulb
temperatures are able to drop to freezing for most of the day, we
could see at least brief whiteout conditions. Based on current
guidance and last week`s system, the potential for brief whiteout
conditions during the day are about 20%. If the low is a little
slower, the high winds will impact areas farther east, blowing dust
becomes more of a concern, and our chances for thunderstorms would
increase to around 30-40%. There is not a large amount of moisture
available for this system to tap into, so we are not expecting
widespread heavy precipitation, including snowfall. There is about a
2% chance a snowband could form which would produce up to half a
foot of snow.

In either scenario, during the afternoon and early evening hours,
there is a chance (30-40%) of visibility reductions from blowing
snow or dirt. Overnight, the potential for blowing dirt is
effectively 0, but blowing snow would likely occur where snow
continues falling.

A ridge will start building in Saturday and force out any lingering
precipitation to the east by sunrise. Once the lingering
precipitation moves out of the area Saturday, we will remain dry
until Tuesday, when the next system moves in. This will also trigger
a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Saturday through Tuesday,
we are looking at RH values dropping back into the low to mid teens.
If we are able to remain dry in the southeastern CWA into Saturday,
winds will be gusting into the 25-35 kts range, creating some
concerning fire weather conditions. Sunday through Tuesday, the
winds will be more marginal, but could still become chaotic fire
weather days. Monday, we are looking at temperatures once again
warming into the upper 70s to low 80s ahead of the next system

The next system looks to be impacting the area some time between
Tuesday and Wednesday evening. While it does not look as windy as
Friday`s system, there are signals pointing to more moisture being
available with this low. The moisture conveyor will heavily depend
on how quickly the high pressure moves over the Gulf on Sunday,
Monday, or Tuesday.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
GFS - Global Forecast System
GEFS - GFS Ensemble Forecast System
NAM - North American Model
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
CMC-NH - Canadian Meteorological Centre-Northern Hemisphere
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
RH  - Relative Humidity
FROPA - FROntal PAssage
C/K - Celsius/Kelvin
P-type - Precipitation type
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
km - Kilometer
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area
CONUS - CONtiguous United States

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

KGLD...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period.
Northwest winds up to 10kts are forecast from taf issuance
through 19z, veering to the north at similar speeds through 23z.
From 00z-04z, light and variable winds are expected with
southwest winds up to 11kts from 05z through the rest of the taf
period.

KMCK...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A
light and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through
17z. From 18z-23z, northwest to northerly winds up to 10kts are
forecast. After 00z, winds will be light and variable.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Record/near record high temperatures are possible at the
following locations Thursday, March 13:

Goodland.....78 degrees set back in 2012
Colby........78 degrees set back in 1946
Tribune......78 degrees set back in 2005

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     COZ252>254.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for COZ090>092.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99