686
FXUS63 KGLD 130610
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1210 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist
  through the duration of the work week, hottest on Thu-Fri
  when highs are forecast to reach the upper 80`s to mid 90`s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon, primarily in
  Colorado, with relative humidity falling to 15-20% and
  southeasterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph by late afternoon.

- Locally gusty winds of 40-50 mph may accompany sprinkles and
  virga this evening.

- A marginal risk for a severe storm or two Thursday afternoon
  and early evening, primarily in Norton and Graham counties in
  northwest Kansas, with wind gusts of up to 60 mph and small
  hail possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Upper ridge axis will move across the area today and tonight
with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. At the
surface, high pressure will move into Missouri with
southeasterly return flow into the central High Plains. Gradient
winds will steadily increase through the afternoon, especially
in Colorado where gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible by mid to
late afternoon. Relative humidity minimums will fall to 15-20%,
with elevated to locally critical conditions, most likely in
Colorado due to the stronger winds. Confidence is just lacking
for the relative humidity to reach 15% for 3 hours in Colorado,
though it will be very close, and while GFDI will be extreme
(80-90) winds may be just shy of the 35mph criteria as well to
use GFDI. End result will be messaging for elevated fire
weather conditions, primarily in Colorado. Tonight, remnants of
Front Range convection will be moving across the area as
sprinkles or virga (models show only zero or trace amounts).
HRRR suggests these showers may be accompanied by wind gusts of
40-50 mph as they potentially mix down a strengthening
nocturnal low level jet. The threat for gusty winds should
diminish after 06z as the low level jet weakens.

As the ridge axis moves east on Thursday, zonal flow will become
established over the Central Plains. There will be a weak
embedded wave coming out of Colorado in the afternoon providing
some synoptic scale lift. Surface pattern is a bit messy, but
appears to be a trough or front located roughly along Highway
25/83 at 21z with cyclonic convergence in the wind field. Dew
points to the east of the trough will be in the 40s and 50s
while to the west they are in the 30s. REFS mean SBCAPE is very
weak, less than 250 j/kg in most of the area at peak heating,
with perhaps far eastern areas with the higher dew points up to
500 j/kg. Deep layer shear will be 25kts early in the afternoon,
increasing to 30-35kts by 00z, highest again in eastern areas.
Given the weak forcing, weak instability but adequate shear,
cannot completely rule out a severe threat, but confidence is on
the low side. CAMs do show isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing after 19-20z through about 03z
before dissipating and/or moving east. Hazards will likely be
limited to locally gusty winds with favorable DCAPE forecast up
to 1500 j/kg, but the hail threat seems low given the forecast
instability and lack of stronger forcing, though the increasing
shear will compensate somewhat. Finally, afternoon relative
humidity minimums will drop well into the teens across the
entire area, but winds appear too light, generally less than 20
mph, for fire weather concerns at this time.

Temperatures will be above to much above normal, with highs in
the 80s today and 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

***Synopsis***

Friday morning, approximately zonal flow is favored to exist at
500- mb over the CWA, with a weak, broad trough across the
Southwestern United States. This trough feature looks to slowly
move toward the east, producing a surface low pressure across
the South-Central Plains. The low may keep surface winds across
the area out of the north through much of the afternoon Friday,
but deepening of the low on Saturday as the trough makes its way
across the Rockies looks to develop a strong southerly return
flow. At the same time, another upper-level trough digging into
the United States from the Pacific Northwest looks to undergo
moderate to intense deepening, associated with low to mid-level
cooling. This feature is favored to dig into portions of the
Western United States Saturday and into Sunday. These two
troughing features may be associated with active weather during
the weekend. A cold front is favored to traverse the forecast
region sometime Sunday night or Monday as upper-level troughing
moves in overhead. Moving forward, an active pattern may
continue as troughing once again sets up across the west.

***Friday***

Northerly winds across the forecast region Friday may lead to
slight cooling from Thursday, though hot conditions still look
to remain, with highs in the lower-80s to mid-90s. Dry
conditions appear likely, with forecast relative humidities (RH)
in the low to mid- teens across the area. Brief critical fire
weather conditions may be a concern during the early to mid-
afternoon hours, specifically across portions of Eastern
Colorado where wind gusts are forecast in the 25-30 mph range.
NBM guidance suggests a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to meet
criteria for the hazard in this zone, with the higher end of
this range in Northwestern Yuma County. Additionally, the LREF
is in support of lower RH values in Eastern Colorado, with
nearly the entire area in a 50-70% chance for RH below 15%.
However, there is a limiting factor for this hazard to occur,
and that is that wind gusts look to drop off as the afternoon
progresses. While confidence in drier conditions is increasing,
confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is only around
10-15% considering the weakening winds throughout the day.

***Saturday***

As the surface low continues to deepen and broaden into
portions of Colorado, a strong southerly flow appears likely.
High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the mid-80s to
lower-90s. GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance is in strong
agreement that a high will be located across the Southeast
United States, with a low in Central Mexico. These features,
along with the surface low across the South- Central High
Plains, could work together to provide moisture in this
southerly flow. Some areas in Northwest Kansas, particularly
areas east of US-83, have greater than a 50% chance to
experience dew points 50 degrees or higher. Additionally, a warm
front may be present across Kansas during this time along with
a dryline near the Kansas-Colorado border. However, the exact
location of these features are in question, as LREF guidance
suggests a spread of 60- 70 degrees in wind direction across the
region Saturday afternoon and evening. Even so, surface CAPE
values up to 2500 J/kg across Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska can`t be ruled out. GFS and EC model soundings suggest
that 30-50 kts of 0-6 km shear are possible, which could support
strong wind gusts and large hail. Confidence in a severe event
Saturday afternoon and evening has increased, but is right
around 10% at best.

***Sunday***

Severe weather may continue on Sunday as the trough from the
Pacific Northwest digs southeastward, though critical fire
weather may be added to the mix. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to
take place somewhere across portions of Eastern Colorado and
Western Kansas. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance is in agreement
with this assessment, placing a low across this region Sunday
afternoon. This may introduce some southwesterly flow into the
CWA, aiding in the development of a dryline. However, there is
significant uncertainty as to where the dryline sets up, as
represented by LREF 75th-25th percentile spread in dew point
temperatures of 15-25 degrees across the region. Areas west of
the dryline may see RH values as low as the mid-teens, with wind
gusts up to 40 mph due to the strengthening cyclone. NBM
guidance suggests most of Eastern Colorado has a 75-90% chance
of gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria Sunday
afternoon. This would suggest increasing confidence in Red Flag
conditions behind the dryline. Ahead of the dryline, LREF 90th
percentile guidance suggests 2000-2500 J/kg of surface CAPE
can`t be ruled out. GFS and EC model soundings suggest that up
to 40 kts of 0- 6 km shear is possible, which would support
severe weather again. Hazards from severe storms look to be
strong winds and large hail. While uncertainty continues to
exist regarding the positioning of the dryline, confidence in a
Red Flag Warning being needed behind the boundary is about 20%
at this time, with about 10% confidence of severe weather ahead
of the dryline Sunday afternoon and evening.

***Monday/Tuesday***

As troughing moves over the area Monday, high temperatures look
to decrease a bit into the upper-60s to upper-70s Monday, and
mid-70s to lower-80s Tuesday. Precipitation may occur behind the
cold front Monday, though LREF guidance suggests that most of
this activity would be associated with light, widespread rain
that is around 0.1 inches or less. Ensemble guidance appears to
favor troughing to redevelop across the west around this time,
which may indicate a continued active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will increase from the southeast Wednesday
morning with gusts 20-30kts through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024