488
FXUS63 KGLD 292324
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms look to continue through the evening and early
  overnight hours and impact most of the area. Winds up to
  60-70 MPH and hail up to 1.25 inches are the main threats.
  Additionally, a brief landspout or nuisance flooding cannot be
  ruled out.

- Cooler temperatures with daily chances for storms are forecast
  for the mid-week.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm to near average going into
  the weekend with highs around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Current observations show a surface low across a majority of the
area, with the center closer to the southern half of the area.
Meanwhile, there is some differential heating with parts of Northern
and Eastern Colorado in the 70s due to some persistent low level
cloud cover while the rest of the region is in the 80s and 90s
underneath sunny skies. For this afternoon, the aforementioned
conditions will likely set up some convergence boundaries for storms
to form.

The main boundary of note is the convergence zone along a
stationary front, near the center of the low. This boundary is
currently located roughly along Cheyenne county [CO], up to
Hitchcock county [NE] and then to the east. This boundary is not
forecast to move much and will generally be tied to the center of
the low. Looking at ensembles, if it were to shift, it would shift a
bit further east, taking the main wave more out of Colorado.
Wherever storms fire up along this boundary, pulse storms that
congeal fairly quickly are forecast as effective shear remains
forecast to be around 15-30 kts. With storms unable to sustain and
CAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg, large hail looks to be unlikely. Small,
accumulating hail and heavy rain similar to most storms this year
are likely, though the heavy rain may be initially delayed the
further east storms form due to dewpoint depressions of 30+ degrees.
This line will likely initiate around 2pm MT/3pm CT, with the
earliest around 12:30pm MT. The sooner the line initiates, the more
of the area that will see storms. A sooner initation could also
allow for larger hail as guidance generally suggests that there
would be more CAPE the closer storms fire to the cooler and more
moist air (though mid level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km) would also
be a hindrance).

The other main line is the potential for storms to generally develop
along either the I-70 or Highway 40 corridor along a moisture
gradient as drier air is pulled in from the southwest. The chance
for this line isn`t as great as the other line along the front, but
would have the potential to be severe as well. Hail doesn`t look to
be likely due to lower instability (CAPE 1000 J/kg or less), but
microbursts and maybe a landspout could occur. The timing for this
line is fairly similar with it starting as early as 2pm MT / 3pm CT,
but the more likely initiation looks to be closer to 5pm CT (if it
does initiate).

A third potential line is with the differential heating boundary and
usual higher terrain storms that form west of the area. This line
has the least likely chance to be severe as it would likely move
into an environment already stabilized by prior storms. Still, will
need to watch for some potential wind gusts above 60 mph.

The other potential concern with all of these lines remains the
chance for flooding. Flooding chances still aren`t that great
(generally 30% or less for at least nuisance flooding), especially
if any of the line converge on each other. Flooding would be more
likely in the case of the lines staying apart, allowing for multiple
rounds of heavy rain, or if storms can train on one of the boundaries
that is forecast to develop. Otherwise, the generally dry air near
the surface and downshear vectors of 20-25 kts should keep storms
initially lighter and moving enough to give most of the area just
enough rain to be beneficial, but not flood.

So in quick summary, multiple lines of storms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible, favoring severe
wind gusts, but maybe producing some large hail and a landspout.
Flooding is also possible, but would need storms to move in a
certain orientation and form in multiple rounds.

Late this evening and into tonight, some showers and maybe a few
storms could linger, but precipitation should end as the surface low
pushes south along with the upper forcing. The chance for another
cluster moving in from Western Nebraska has lower to less than 10%.
If that did develop, we could see a few gusts to 60 mph in the
northern part of the area closer to sunrise. Otherwise, winds should
shift to out of the south and temperatures drop into the 60s.

Tomorrow, a cooler day with highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s
is forecast as the upper low over the Great Lakes begins to spin
into the Plains and the northerly surface winds bring some weak cold
air advection. Low level cloud cover is also forecast for the start
of the day, which should help the day start a bit cooler. May have
to watch for some fog in the morning depending on how much the
storms saturate the low levels.

Tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours, there is a chance for
some storms to develop along the higher terrain to the west and push
east into the area. The main inhibitor is that the higher surface
pressure and colder air mass is forecast to also be pushing into the
area late in the day. If these storms make it to the area, they may
be able to produce a few strong wind gusts as they are forecast to
form into a line. Otherwise, the higher pressure should push any
storms south of the area and keep us clearer. We would have cloud
cover move over the area in either scenario, keeping low
temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Thursday-Friday are forecast to remain a bit on the cooler side with
high temperatures in the 70`s through the mid 80s with the upper
trough over the Great Lakes region forecast to extend into the
Plains. With the higher pressure setting over the Plains, winds are
forecast to remain around 10-20 mph from the east and then south.
Chances and showers are forecast to continue as the moist air mass
remains in place with the potential for shortwaves to bring some
synoptic lift in during the afternoon and evening hours. If the
showers and storms form, they would likely develop over the higher
terrain in Colorado and move east into the area.

Saturday-Sunday remain forecast to be warmer as the upper ridge
tries to reamplify over the Rockies while the low level flow shifts
to out of the south. With the warm air advection, temperatures
should warm to be more around 90. Storm chances these days are a bit
more variable as it depends on how amplified the ridge to the west
becomes and how close it can be to the area. The more amplified and
closer it is, the lower our chances as we would have upper
subsidence and be less likely to be affected by shortwaves.

Early next week, the current forecast is for the pattern to be
similar to the weekend, but with more zonal flow. As long as the
zonal flow holds, temperatures should warm to the 90s with
afternoon/evening storm chances. However, there are hints of either
upper lows/troughs pushing into the Northern United States both from
the west and east. If the upper troughs/lows can push closer to the
area, then a more organized day of storms and potential severe
weather is likely. The area would also then probably see
temperatures cool similar to this mid-week with highs in the 70s-
80s. If a system did move through, the current forecast favors
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For KGLD... Thunderstorms are forecast to remain in the vicinity
for the first couple of hours, though they should move off of
the terminal. While I only have the first two hours with VCTS,
there are quite a few outflow boundaries in the area. Be alert
for pop up thunderstorms through about 07Z. After that, the main
system should shift south and precipitation come to an end. The
latest forecast is a little more pessimistic on how low ceilings
will get tonight, especially if outflow boundaries are moving
across the area. So while not currently included, there is about
a 30% chance that ceilings lower to around 100ft between 09-16Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds eventually steadying from
the north are forecast for the remainder of the period.

For KMCK... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue
to move over or near the terminal for the next few hours. As a
whole, the system is moving northeast, which should push the
current storms away from the terminal. That being said, the
outflow boundaries that have been produced could kick up
additional showers and storms through about 08Z. The chances are
currently low enough that I left it out for now. With all the
turbulence and outflow boundaries, the chance for ceilings
around 1000ft has lowered a bit, but not enough to keep out of
the TAF. Currently, the forecast has ceilings lowering around
sunrise, but they could lower as soon as 09Z. Towards the mid
part of tomorrow, some drier air should push in and the ceilings
should lift, allowing for VFR conditions. Winds should stabilize
from the north.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK