435
FXUS63 KGLD 100842
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is possible overnight, mainly along and south of I-70.
  There may be patches of dense fog with visibility near one
  quarter of a mile.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Friday night with a
  front moving through Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds
  may accompany stronger storms.

- Seasonal temperatures expected today and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push south as an upper
wave moves through the area. The severe threat has likely ended,
though some gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall
may persist for another hour or two south of Highway 96.
Otherwise, patchy fog and areas of low clouds will develop
towards sunrise with the light upslope winds and near saturated
low levels. The fog will burn off by mid morning but the low
clouds may persist through late morning. For the afternoon, CAMs
show an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible near the lee
trough which extends across northeast Colorado and into the Tri
Border area. However, with subtle height rises associated with
the upper ridge nosing in from the southwest, confidence is low
anything will develop. Shear and instability will be weak and
not expecting severe storms if something should pop up. Tonight,
south winds will be advecting moisture into the area and patchy
fog may develop once again, mainly south of Interstate 70,
persisting into Friday morning.

On Friday, zonal flow over the top of the ridge will continue
through northern Colorado and the Central High Plains. Scattered
showers and storms are forecast to develop in northern Colorado
and move into the eastern plains of northeast Colorado during
the afternoon and evening, rapidly weakening as they do so.
Another cluster of showers and storms will accompany a cold
front moving through central Nebraska late Friday night. There
is currently a marginal risk for severe storms with this
activity for wind and hail in the Kansas and Nebraska border
area.

Temperatures will be near normal today with highs in the mid to
upper 80s, warming to slightly above normal on Friday with lower
90s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Over the weekend and into next week, zonal flow will remain
over the Northern CONUS until a low-pressure system from the
northwest slides eastward on Monday, followed by a return to
southwesterly zonal flow. On Saturday and Sunday, afternoon
showers are expected due to shortwave troughs and diurnal
heating, though confidence remains low to medium (25 to 40%).
On Monday, showers are expected to form in the afternoon as the
cold front arrives. There is a 60% chance of showers, but the
exact timing during the day remains uncertain due to variability
in the fronts arrival.

Afternoon temperatures will start in the low 80s on Saturday,
then rise into the low to mid-90s on Sunday. For the remainder
of the period, temperatures are forecast to hover around 80F.
However, with the cold front passing through Monday,
temperatures may end up lower than expected; as the NBM 75th
to 25th percentile spread exceeds 10 degrees F. There is medium
confidence (60%) in this cooler scenario, with potential
afternoon highs in the upper 70s.

Critical fire weather is not expected to develop on Sunday.
However, wind gusts up to 30 knots and relative humidity dipping
into the low 20s within the Colorado counties will push
Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values above 50. The primary
limiting factor is relative humidity, which would need to drop
below 15% for critical conditions. Consequently, confidence that
fire weather conditions will intensify further remains low
(20%) due to the incoming cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Main aviation concern for both KGLD and KMCK will be patchy fog
and areas of low clouds towards sunrise and into Thursday
morning. A few hours of IFR conditions seem likely with the
lower ceilings, with lower confidence in the fog. Clouds will
slowly burn off by mid to late morning with a return to VFR
expected by 18z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...024