319
FXUS63 KGLD 211731
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory on track to expire at 11 am MST, Noon
  CST this morning.

- Much warmer temperatures return Saturday through Tuesday with
  the warmest day being Monday when high temperatures will be in
  the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

As of 1015 am MST, precipitation along the I-70 corridor has
significantly diminished in both area and intensity. Ongoing
Winter Weather Advisory is on track to expire at 11 am MST,
Noon CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

Today-tonight...a compact closed low pressure system embedded
within a larger upper level trough will move east along the I-70
corridor today. Lobes of moisture and energy will rotate around
the low, producing a 20%-50% chance of snow along the
interstate this morning, decreasing quickly early this afternoon
and coming to an end before sunset. The preferred 06z NAM/HRRR
solutions are producing snowfall totals of 1 to 5 inches along
much of Interstate 70 with the highest amounts in Kit
Carson/Cheyenne (CO) counties. Have gone ahead and issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for Thomas, Sherman, Wallace counties in
Kansas along with Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado
to account for the anticipated snow band to develop. Snowfall
amounts may exceed 3 inches, if so a Winter Storm Warning will
be needed.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 30s to
middle 30s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the single
digits above zero to middle teens, coldest east of Highway 25.

Saturday-Saturday night...dry weather remains in the forecast under
a slowly approaching upper level ridge. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 40s to middle 50s (warmest south of
Interstate 70) with low temperatures in the 20 to 25 degree range.

Sunday-Sunday night...warmer temperatures in the lower 50s to lower
60s are forecast under a generally clear sky. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 30s to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

The long-term will see dry conditions with warmer temperatures.
No moist air looks to make a return in the long- term, allowing
the sky to favor more clear conditions and greatly reduce PoPs.
An upper- level ridge will dominate the period with a few waves
moving through. The first 500 mb shortwave trough is seen
sweeping across the Northern Plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning with the Tri- State area being on the southern edge of
the wave. This most likely will lead to a few more clouds and
some northwesterly winds, but not much else.

Wednesday early morning, an amplifying trough will cut through
the Great Plains. A surface cold front is expected with this
trough, but once again, due to a lack of moisture, PoPs are less
than 10. The GFS is still showing strong pressure rises behind
the FROPA and an 850 mb LLJ around 40-50 kts. However, the ECMWF
and CMC-NH are not showing such a strong signal. Current NBM
guidance is suggesting sustained winds will be around 20-30 kts
with gusts up around 40 kts. There`s a decent amount of
uncertainty, so confidence in multiple gusts reaching 45 kts is
only around 35-40%.

Due to the snowpack, minimum RH values look to remain fairly
moist (>20%) through at least Tuesday. However, that moisture
won`t last and RH values Wednesday through Friday are dipping
into the teens. We`ve already mentioned Wednesday`s winds, but
Friday is showing some gusts in the 25-30 kts range. The dry
conditions with gusty winds are increasing concerns for critical
fire weather, but nothing is certain yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

GLD: As of 1015 am MST (1715 UTC) this morning, sub-VFR
conditions associated with snow have ended. VFR conditions are
anticipated to rule through the 18Z TAF period. 5-10 knot SSW
winds will veer to the WSW or W overnight into Saturday morning.

MCK: VFR conditions and light (5-10 knot) SSW or variable winds
will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 305 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

Record daily low temperatures:

                   Feb 21

Goodland..........-5F (1953)
Hill City.........-8F (1978)
McCook............-7F (1911)
Burlington........-8F (2018)

Record daily low maximum temperatures:

Goodland...........19F (1971)
Hill City..........18F (1968)
McCook.............20F (2013)
Burlington.........16F (1913)

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this
     morning for KSZ013-014-027.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     COZ091-092.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...99