909
FXUS63 KGLD 230454
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
954 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow melt on sidewalks, driveways, parking lots and area
  roads will rapidly freeze into black ice after sunset. Locally
  hazardous travel conditions are likely late this evening and
  early Sunday morning, especially along and north of I-70,
  where snow cover is deeper.

- Warming trend will continue through early next week, warmest
  on Monday and Tuesday when high temperatures are expected to
  reach the mid 60`s to near 70F.

- Potential for near critical to briefly critical fire weather
  conditions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Watching for fog development from the substantial amount of
melting that occurred today due to a freshly saturated boundary
layer. Winds have gone light and variable to even calm as the
region is in between weather systems. The typical more saturated
bias models such as the NAM suite does show fog development
along the snow pack; however not completely buying into that as
those typically are the more aggressive guidance. At this time fog
development does not look imminent as dew point depressions
remain around 5-10 degrees across the area but will keep a very
close eye out for the fog development from observational data the
Nighttime Microphysics RGB. Overall, am continuing from the day
shift and leaving it out of the forecast for now as it does seem
to be fairly conditional. Other change that was made to increase
temperatures along the southern periphery of the snow pack as here
at the GLD office we melted 3 inches of our snow depth away since
12Z and temperatures this afternoon for sure reflected that as we
rose into the low 50s. 850mb temperatures do look to be around
3-5 degrees warmer than today which also leads plausibility to my
thoughts with the warmer temperatures tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Overview: A subsident synoptic regime characterized by
shortwave ridging aloft and weak tropospheric flow will prevail
in this period. A compact upper low situated over central-
southern NM this afternoon will progress east across the
Southern Plains (tonight).

Today-Tonight: After quickly rising through the mid-upper 30`s
by 8-9 am MST this morning, temperatures have largely plateaued
around the lower-mid 40s in areas where deep snow cover
persists. South of I-70 in Kansas, where little or no snow cover
is present, temperatures have reached the mid-upper 50`s. With
clear skies, light (5-10 mph) W to SW winds and continued snow
cover along/north of I-70, expect temperatures on Sunday morning
to be similar to this morning.. generally in the lower 20`s.
Given otherwise favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling (along/north of I-70), if winds were to go calm for an
appreciable period of time, temperatures could certainly fall
into the lower-mid teens.. and patchy fog could not be ruled
out. Given that a considerable amount of snow-melt on area
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots will freeze after
sunset.. hazardous travel conditions assoc/w black ice are
highly probable in areas with lingering snow cover (essentially
anywhere along and north of I-70).

Sun-Sun night: With little overall change in the synoptic and
mesoscale pattern over the Tri-State area, expect conditions
analogous to today, albeit warmer.. via further airmass
modification (predominately associated with insolation). Snow
cover, where present, will continue to partially offset
insolation, though.. this `offset` will rapidly diminish as snow
cover decreases in area/extent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Long range guidance continues to suggest that a subsident
synoptic regime will persist throughout the extended period,
initially in the form of modest ridging over the 4-Corners,
central Rockies and adjacent High Plains (Mon-Tue).. followed
by a transition to NW-NNW flow aloft (Wed-Thu) as an upper level
ridge amplifies along the Pacific North American coast and an
upper level trough amplifies over eastern North America.

Expect a warming trend to persist through Tuesday, with well
above average temperatures likely on both Mon-Tue. A cooling
trend (near average to slightly above average temperatures)
will follow, on Wed, and persist through the remainder of the
week.. along with episodic breezy NW-N winds in the wake of a
succession of small amplitude waves progressing southeastward
from western Canada through the Northern Plains and Upper MS
River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions and WSW winds are forecast to continue through
this TAF period. Mainly clear skies are forecast other than some
high clouds across the Nebraska panhandle currently that may
make it to KMCK but with 250 cloud heights continuing with no
impacts to flight categories. Winds are forecast to remain
around 7-10 knots for the duration of the period with the
exception of KMCK where some 20 knot gust potential Sunday
afternoon is seen in forecast soundings. Still watching for a
conditional fog/freezing fog threat at each terminal due to the
significant melting that occurred today. At this time this
threat looks to be less than 5% of occurrence due to dew point
depressions struggling to saturate despite the clear skies. The
WSW winds as well are unfavorable for fog formation so it may
take a period of calm conditions for the fog to occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg