845
FXUS63 KGLD 110859
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
259 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm is possible over portions of
  northwest KS and southwest NE late this aft-eve, mainly north
  and east of Colby, KS between 6-11 pm CDT. Quarter size hail
  and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threats, should
  storms develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Overview: Modest unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft will
prevail over the Tri-State Area.. on the southern periphery of
the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies.

Today: Expect modest southerly low-level flow and a warming
trend (highs in the lower-mid 90s), on the eastern periphery of
a broad surface trough in the lee of the central Rockies.
Unimpeded insolation and rich low-level moisture (surface
dewpoints in the lower 60`s) on the eastern periphery of a SW to
NE oriented dryline will foster moderate diurnal
destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) east of a line from
Cheyenne Wells to Goodland and McCook late this afternoon.
Whether or not weak low-level convergence in vicinity of the
dryline will be sufficient to initiate deep/sustained high-based
convection.. is unclear. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via
the 06Z HRRR indicate no convective development. Simulated
reflectivity forecasts via the 06Z NAM NEST indicate scattered
convective development along portions of the dryline, mainly
north and east of Goodland ~23-04Z (5-10p MDT). Moderate
instability and ~25-35 KT effective deep layer shear are
supportive of severe weather, should deep/sustained updrafts
develop.

Tonight: Surface pressure rises over the Canadian Prairies,
associated with height rises / synoptic subsidence in the wake
of an upper level trough progressing east across Alberta,
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will propel an inverted surface ridge
southward through the Northern Plains tonight, the leading edge
of which will manifest as a northeasterly wind shift and
effective cold frontal passage around or shortly before sunrise
Saturday (~08-10Z near the NE-KS border, ~10-12Z in Greeley/
Wichita counties). Sat morning lows will highly depend on the
precise timing of the frontal passage / onset of modest low-
level cold advection. High-res guidance suggests that minimum
temps will occur around or shortly after sunrise (~12-14Z)..
coolest (upper 50`s) in northern and western portions of the
area and warmest (mid-upper 60`s) in southern and eastern
portions of the area.

Sat-Sat night: Expect cooler temperatures in the wake of the
front, with highs ranging from the upper 70`s (north) to mid
80`s (south) and Sun morning lows ranging from the mid 50`s to
lower 60`s. Convection is not anticipated in the Goodland CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Starting Sunday, an upper level ridge starts to amplify in the
Central Plains and into Montana as a low-pressure system in the
Northwest slides northeast into Southern Canada on Monday. Once
the low-pressure passes through, southwesterly flow returns and
will stay until a broad upper-level trough comes through from
the north, eventually returning back into the ridge pattern late
in the week. This will allow chances for showers and cooling
temperatures over next week. Monday and Tuesday will have the
first potential for showers as the cold front moves through and
transitions into southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves on
tuesday. There is high confidence (80%) that the cold front will
occur Monday afternoon, but there is medium confidence (50%)
that showers will linger into Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, conditions for showers look to be
similar to Monday and Tuesday. A broader cold front will pass
through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing a
drier air mass and a ridge pattern over the area. Confidence
decreases from medium to low (50-20%) over the two days as there
is a large variability on when the cold front will pass
through. While there is a decent chance (up to 45%) for showers
across the area, latest guidance favors the southern half of the
area for accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch of rain
based on the southerly motion and timing of the front.

Temperatures will start in the low 90s Sunday and dip into the
upper 80s and low 90s Monday. For Tuesday onwards, afternoon
highs should remain in the 70s as a 5-degree temperature spread
starts to form over the forecast area that could potentially put
highs into the upper 70s. There is medium confidence (60%) that
temperature will rise later in the week as we move back into
the ridge pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S to
SSW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through most of the
morning, perhaps gusting to ~25 knots for a few hours after
sunrise (~13-16Z) prior to weakening and becoming light and
variable during the early afternoon. Winds will remain light and
variable through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Winds will become northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots
shortly before sunrise Sat, near the end of the 12Z TAF period.

MCK: A storm cannot be ruled-out in vicinity of the McCook
terminal during the late afternoon and early evening (~00-03Z
Sat). Confidence in storm development and coverage is low enough
to preclude explicit mention with the 12Z TAF issuance.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S
to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through sunrise. Gusts
up to 20-25 knots are possible during the late morning and
early afternoon (~14-21Z). Winds will veer to the SW or WSW
during the mid-afternoon, become light/variable during the late
afternoon and remain light through the evening. Winds will shift
to the NE or ENE and increase to 10-15 knots a few hours prior
to sunrise Sat, near the end of the 12Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KMK/Moeller
AVIATION...Vincent