191
FXUS63 KGLD 092313
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms in northern CO and the NE Panhandle
  will track southeast into portions of northwest KS and
  southwest NE late this aft-eve. A few severe storms are
  possible between 5-9 PM MDT. Damaging wind gusts and quarter
  size hail are the main hazards. Blowing dust is possible with
  thunderstorm outflow.

- Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast for
  most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Synoptic Overview: An amplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast
will slowly shift east across the Intermountain West (today-
tonight) and Rockies (Sun-Sun night), then broaden and extend
eastward over the Central Plains (Mon-Mon night). Shortwave
energy located near Yellowstone, WY at 18Z will slowly dig SSE
through central WY this afternoon, southern WY (this evening),
eastern CO (overnight), southwest KS (Sun morning) and the
Southern Plains (Sun-Sun night).. via NNW flow aloft on the
eastern periphery of the eastward advancing ridge.

Through Tonight: A weak, inverted surface trough extending NNE
(roughly) from Tribune to Colby and McCook at 18Z will be
displaced/shunted southward into southwest and south-central KS
late this afternoon as a cooler airmass / inverted surface ridge
(extending southward through the Dakotas/Nebraska) progresses
southward into CO-KS, the leading edge of which will manifest as
a NE wind shift and modest effective cold frontal passage. A
capped and very marginally unstable airmass (~100 J/kg mlcape
and CIN) in place over the Tri-State Area at 18Z will
destabilize (to some extent) during peak heating (by ~23Z), when
high-res guidance suggests ~250-500 J/kg mlcape and little or
no convective inhibition, though.. increasingly NE to ENE low-
level flow will likely result in increasing convective
inhibition after 00Z (i.e. advect CIN westward from the cloud-
covered airmass over south-central NE and north-central KS).
Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the latest 18Z HRRR suggest
that low-level convergence in northeast CO may aid in the
development of a few short-lived, unorganized sub-severe
updrafts in vicinity of the Tri-State border ~21-23Z (3-5p MDT).
During the past 12 hours, the common `theme` amongst the
majority of convection allowing guidance is that.. upstream
convection developing along/near the Cheyenne Ridge (southeast
WY, northern CO) will propagate downstream / southeast across
northeast CO and northwest KS ~00-04Z (6-10p MDT), when and
where the presence of convection and combination of strong
(1000-1500 J/kg) DCAPE and a tightening `background` MSLP
gradient may support severe N to NE winds with any convection.

Sun-Sun night: Expect cooler temperatures, light/variable winds
and little to no chance for precipitation in the wake of the
front, with highs in the mid 60`s to lower 70`s.

Mon-Mon night: With a broad upper level ridge extending
eastward over the Central Plains, expect a warming/drying trend
with highs in the mid-upper 80`s and minimum RH readings ranging
from 15-20%, possibly lower (10-15%) in northwest portions of
Yuma County, CO. Guidance suggests SSW to WSW winds generally in
the 10-20 mph range, perhaps with occasional gusts up to 25 mph
over portions of the area (mainly north and east of Goodland).
With this in mind, marginal red flag conditions are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

***Synopsis***

Northwesterly flow looks to be in place overhead Tuesday morning, as
a shortwave trough treks southeastward across the Midwest. This
would be associated with a weak to modest cold front Tuesday
afternoon and evening. However, ridging coming in overhead
Wednesday favors a southerly flow to quickly reestablish
itself. Troughing looks to be coming into the West Coast
Wednesday afternoon and evening, though significant timing
issues exist regarding its eastward propagation, leading to
significant model divergence by Thursday night. GEFS, EC, and
LREF ensemble guidance indicates a slower propagation of this
wave, which would allow ridging to persist through the end of
the forecast period. Still, some guidance does favor a faster
propagation, which would allow a cold front to sweep through the
forecast region as early as Thursday night.

***Tuesday***

The weak cold front that looks to come through the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening may cool the forecast area slightly from
Monday, with forecast highs in the upper-70s to upper-80s. Even
so, impacts from this feature are forecast to be minimal, with
most NBM and LREF guidance suggesting a lack of precipitation
during this period. Only LREF 95th and higher percentiles show
any indication of precipitation from this system, and even then
would be a few hundredths of an inch. Relative humidities (RH)
may drop near the mid-teens Tuesday afternoon, though LREF
guidance suggests less than a 20% chance across the forecast
area for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria. Wind
gusts are currently forecast in the 25-35 mph range during this
period, supported by NBM guidance. Gusts toward the higher end
of this range may be enough to overcome RH values that don`t
quite reach criteria, creating marginal fire weather risks.
However, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Tuesday
afternoon is less than 5%.

***Wednesday - Thursday Afternoon***

Warm temperatures look to continue with ridging moving in overhead
Wednesday. Highs are currently forecast in the mid to upper-80s
Wednesday afternoon, and upper-80s to mid-90s Thursday. Dry
conditions once again seem possible, with RH in the mid-teens to
upper-20s Wednesday, and mid to upper-teens Thursday. Critical fire
weather conditions may once again come into play both days.
Wednesday`s risk appears wind-driven, with forecast guidance
suggesting up to 45 mph gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado.
This is consistent with the mean forecasted wind gusts from the NBM
across this region in the low to mid-40s. However, these values may
be biased toward the high end due to how the NBM assigns wind gusts.
Additionally, this region is forecast to experience the higher end
of the RH range for Wednesday (upper-teens to lower-20s). As such,
fire weather risks Wednesday afternoon are favored to be marginal
across this zone. Forecast guidance for Thursday afternoon suggests
gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible, with NBM guidance giving
at least a 1 in 3 chance for most locations in the CWA to experience
gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria. Still, RH values
according to the LREF have less than a 30% chance to drop into
criteria for the hazard, lowering the risk. Confidence in a Red Flag
Warning being needed is around 5% for both Wednesday and Thursday.

***Thursday Night - Saturday***

Again, forecast guidance is a bit more uncertain by Thursday night
due to unresolved timing of an eastward moving trough from the west.
Ensemble guidance appears to favor a broader, slower-moving wave,
though some deterministic guidance shows this feature as a faster-
moving shortwave system. The faster propagation would promote a cold
front to traverse the forecast area sometime between Thursday night
and Friday morning. This activity may be associated with some light
showers along the boundary, with additional precipitation
opportunities behind the front Friday night and possibly into
Saturday morning. The slower propagation would continue to
support warm and dry conditions, with highs in the mid-80s to
mid-90s, and RH as low as the mid-teens. Fire weather would
continue to be a risk under this scenario until the trough from
the west reaches the forecast region. The slower propagation
appears highly favored at this time, as only 10th percentile and
lower LREF scenarios show indications of the wave reaching the
Nevada-Utah border or further by Friday morning. Confidence in
the slower propagation is around 75-80% at this time, though is
still something to keep an eye on as the pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers/storms and a period of strong N to NE winds are
possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening,
mainly between ~00-04Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail
through the TAF period. Winds will shift to the NE late this
afternoon and remain NE overnight, becoming light/variable
around or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent