858
FXUS63 KGLD 121019
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
319 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow will end from west to east late this
  morning, by noon.

- Wind chill readings ranging from -15 to -24F expected late
  tonight and Thursday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
  effect for the entire Tri-State area.

- Chance for snow and very cold wind chill readings with another
  Arctic airmass Friday night and Saturday and again Monday
  night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

No significant change from the prior forecast. Moderate to
locally heavy snow.. heaviest in narrow, transient bands (per
KGLD and MRMS radar trends late Tue evening and early this
morning).. will persist through sunrise. Guidance continues to
indicate that accumulating snow will swiftly abate from west-to-
east late this morning (~13-18Z).. and that precipitation will
end, altogether, by noon. Ongoing Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory remain in place, as-is.. and both are
likely to be cancelled when precipitation ends late this morning
(early afternoon, at latest). Wind chill readings around -10 to
-15F will prevail this morning. Wind chill readings are
unlikely to exceed 0F this afternoon.

Mostly clear skies, light winds and a fresh snowpack will
foster strong radiational cooling tonight. Air temperatures are
anticipated to bottom-out around -5 to -10F (possibly colder in
some areas) Thursday morning.. when light (~5-12 mph) SW winds
will yield wind chill temperatures in the -15 to -25F range.
With this in mind, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the
entire Tri-State area late this evening through Thursday
morning.

A southerly return flow regime will develop in the lee of the
Rockies on Thu.. as surface high pressure progresses eastward
from the Central Plains to the Mississippi River Valley. Expect
a moderating trend, though.. with a snowpack over the region...
temps are likely to remain below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

The extended period begins with a brief warmup ahead of the
next trough. 850mb temperatures around 6C look to advect into
the area with southwest flow. I did nudge temperatures down a
few degrees which will be dependent on the snowpack from tonight
which may help create just enough of an inversion through the
day that it will be tough to fully realize these temperatures.
If that isn`t the case and the snow pack isn`t as deep or
expansive then widespread highs in the 50s would be expected.

The warmup will be short lived as another cold front moves
through the area during the evening hours. Light snow will also
be possible with this front as well but due to the quick moving
nature of it only light amounts around an inch are forecast at
this time. Breezy winds are possible behind the front which may
lead to some blowing snow concerns as the snow is falling but
due to the limited accumulations any impacts at this time appear
to be minimal. If there is any melting during the day Friday we
will need to keep an eye on flash freeze potential with this
front as well.

Saturday cold temperatures are forecast for the day with highs
struggling to get out of the teens for most of the area. We will
need to keep an eye on and see if there is any subtle lift
during the day which if so would lead to continuous flurries
and/or snow through the day. A very cold is forecast to be in
store Saturday night and into Sunday morning with air
temperatures dropping to near zero. If skies can clear quicker
then even colder temperatures would be possible. Wind chills are
currently forecast around -10F so will need to continue to keep
an eye on Cold Air Advisory potential.

The next focus will then be for the start of the week as
another trough and cold front approach the area. At this time
this system has the potential to be more impactful with
accumulating snow already forecast. Cluster analysis are a bit
more aggressive with amounts but does only appear to be if the
trough were to take a more negative tilt. Will continue to
monitor and see if the trend for better snow amounts continues
or not.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

MVFR-IFR conditions associated with low ceilings and reduced
visibility in snow will prevail this morning. Snow will end from
west to east by late morning (15-18Z).. though MVFR ceilings may
persist well into the afternoon. Expect a gradual improvement
to VFR by late afternoon or early evening (~22-03Z). N to NNE
winds at ~10 knots will become light/variable around, or
shortly before, sunset this evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this
     afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-041-042.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ this evening
     to 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ090>092.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Thursday for COZ090>092.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this
     afternoon for NEZ079-080.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ this evening
     to 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent