527
FXUS63 KGLD 292330
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow accumulations of up to 1 inch are possible Friday.

- Wind chills as low as -15 F are possible Friday night, mainly
  for those east of Highway 83.

- Above average temperatures in the 50s are forecast to return
  Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

The early afternoon hours have seen a few sprinkles in the area as
some moisture between 850-500mb along with some weak mid-level
frontogenesis and a few joules of MUCAPE have allowed some sprinkle
showers to develop. With most of the air above 850mb below 0C, some
soft graupel also has been mixing in at times. This should continue
in spurts for the next few hours, before the backside of the upper
shortwave moves further east and take our small forcing with it.

Tonight, the area is forecast to be in a weak flow pattern at the
surface, ahead of the next upper trough that is forecast to swing
into the Plains from the north. The trough should provide some cloud
cover, but otherwise clear skies and light winds should allow
temperatures to drop into the teens and low twenties.

For Friday, the upper trough is forecast to swing through more of
the Plains and bring a weak cold front through the area. High
temperatures should be capped in the 30s and 40s with the colder air
mass moving in around the late morning, with far eastern parts of
the areas potentially staying in the 20s. On top of the colder
temperatures, the front and trough are forecast to bring some light
snow into the area. The forcing provided by the broad features and
the colder air saturating the air through the day is what is
forecast to help some snow showers develop. With little moisture
advection, QPF is forecast to be between a trace to 0.1", generally
allowing for up to an inch of snow. There could be some pockets of
banding which leads to just over an inch, but this should be fairly
isolated. Blowing snow is not forecast to be a concern with the snow
generally aligning with broader part of the high and lower wind
speeds. Will need to keep an eye on the counties along the Colorado
border as this is where the stronger pressure gradient and winds
around 20 mph should be.

Friday night, the rest of the cold air mass is forecast to push
further south into the area and the rest of the Plains. As it does
so, it should end the snow showers fairly early in the night as
drier air pushes in. While drier, the air may remain saturated near
the surface due to the colder temperatures. This does cause some
concern for freezing fog, though the chances are currently less than
15%. Instead low level cloud cover may remain in place and help keep
temperatures in the teens and upper single digits. Otherwise, there
is some concern for wind chills in the negative teens for locales
close to Central Kansas where temperatures could drop into the
negatives.

Saturday, the mix of some higher level cloud cover and the cold air
mass slowly shifting off to the east is forecast to keep
temperatures cool. Most of the area is forecast to be in the 20s and
30s, with locales along the Colorado border reaching the 40s as long
as the cloud cover clears. Winds may initially increase to around 15-
20 mph, but should decrease as the highs shifts east and broadens,
weakening the pressure gradient.

Saturday night should be warmer than Friday night with low level
moisture advection forecast to raise dewpoints into the teens and
low twenties. With this, lows should generally be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

A northwesterly flow looks to be in place over the forecast area
Sunday, with the possibility of a shortwave trough embedded in this
flow. An attendant surface low pressure to this trough may work with
a surface high pressure system in the Deep South during early parts
of the day Sunday to warm portions of the CWA, but the low looks to
impart northerly winds across the region between the late morning
and early evening hours. High temperatures have the potential to
reach the mid to upper-50s by the afternoon, but if winds flip
northerly earlier in the day, highs could be lowered by 5 to 10
degrees. Depending on these two scenarios, low temperatures Sunday
night could be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

By the morning hours on Monday, a ridge looks to replace the
northwesterly flow aloft, which could promote warming through the
afternoon hours. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in
the mid to upper-50s.

The upper level ridge is forecast to quickly be replaced by a
shortwave trough as it moves over the mountains Monday afternoon.
This system looks to be in place through Wednesday afternoon, and
would support a low pressure system across the High Plains from the
Dakotas down through Texas. Northerly surface flow would once
again be established across the CWA by Monday night, and allow
cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper-40s to low-50s, and
mid to upper-40s respectively. There will be a few chances for
localized snow dustings during the early morning hours on
Tuesday, and Tuesday night through the afternoon hours on
Wednesday. Accumulations are currently not expected to be large,
but some ensemble model guidance indicates more elevated totals
around 2 inches possible, centered primarily in Eastern
Colorado. There are also some indications from the NBM that
wind gusts could be in the upper-20s to low-30s Tuesday and
Wednesday. RH is not currently forecasted to be low enough that
fire weather is a concern, but uncontrolled fires could spread
quickly in these conditions. Additionally, if snow does fall
with this system, then there is the possibility for blowing snow
with these winds, which could lower the visibility.

Northerly to Northwesterly flow looks to be reestablished by
Wednesday night or the early morning hours on Thursday as the trough
moves into the Southeast United States, and a longwave ridge sets up
over the Western United States and Pacific Ocean. This could
allow an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low
pressure to traverse the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. This
pattern would promote westerly, downslope winds across the CWA
on Thursday. High temperatures would be allowed to reach the mid
to upper-50s, and possibly the low-60s due to the warming
caused by the downsloping winds and diurnal heating. As the low
continues to move southeast, surface winds across the region
could flip approximately north- northeasterly, which would lead
to more cooling moving into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Scattered showers/virga will end after sunset tonight and not
expected to impact either KGLD or KMCK. VFR will prevail
through most of the night at both terminals. Towards 12z Friday,
MVFR ceilings will move into KMCK and persist through the
remainder of the day. A brief period of IFR ceilings are
possible at KMCK early Friday morning. Light snow may develop
Friday afternoon at KMCK with minor visibility reductions in the
3-5SM range. Those MVFR ceilings may gradually work into the
KGLD area late Friday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/Davis
AVIATION...024