789
FXUS63 KGLD 291713
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1013 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing fog may develop this morning over parts of the
  tri-state region, with localized dense fog and slick travel
  if it were to develop.

- Our next system looks to occur Friday, thankfully major
  impacts are not expected. However, light snow accumulations up
  to 1 inch and wind chills as low as -15 F are possible Friday
  Night into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mid/upper level flow remains out of the northwest with a mid level
shortwave progressing over the region (strongest forcing near the
base of the trough in southwest KS). Surface low pressure had
develop farther south over south central KS cutting of our region
from the better BL moisture advection while TD depressions off the
surface remain much higher. As with previous trends this pattern is
keeping the signal for light freezing drizzle farther southeast from
our region with HREF FRAM QPF max well southeast and LREF trace ice
accumulation no longer highlighting our southeast CWA. We`ll keep an
eye on things but current trends are lowering the risk even
farther from yesterday for icing impacts from drizzle this morning.

Regarding dense fog potential this morning: A consensus of guidance
including NBM probs have significantly backed off on the potential
for dense fog in our CWA. The exception is the HRRR, with each run
continuing to show the development of an axis of dense fog along and
east of the KS/CO state line before sunrise where the leading edge
of a frontal zone is pushing west. This would be a favorable region
for low level moisture pooling and if radiational cooling were able
to lower BL Td depressions we could see fog start to develop. Trends
have not matched this thus far, and low stratus/fog has yet to
develop anywhere. Td depressions have remain in the 5-10F range
locally as mid level clouds have limited cooling early this morning.
There is still a window for dense fog development through sunrise as
we approach peak radiational cooling, so I do not want to discount
this signal. If dense fog were to develop with sub freezing temps
both visibility impacts and slick travel could develop.
Predictability will just remain very low and be something to
monitor.

Friday-Friday night cold front: There is still a signal for light
snow to arrive as a mid level wave rotates across the Central Plains
to the east of the tri-state region and a series of cold fronts push
west (Friday and a secondary period of CAA Friday night). Snowfall
will predominantly be driven by passing synoptic forcing with PVA
aloft, with only a few transient pockets of frontogenesis associated
with the lingering baroclinic zone supporting localized rates more
than 0.1"/hr. The trends for snow amounts continue to show mainly a
dusting (few tenths of an inch to 0.5") with only a few members with
supporting localized totals around 1" (NBM probs generally 15-20%).
The coldest air behind the fronts is shown to remain east, with the
coldest temps (single digits below) more in Graham/Norton counties.
Current guidance keeps wind chills at coldest locations in the -5 to
-10 range, however depending on winds there is still a low
 chance for values near -15 in those eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Saturday: Low-level southerly return flow will develop over the
region on Sat, as 1045-1050 mb high pressure progresses
southward through central-eastern KS and OK. Expect a west-east
gradient in temperatures, warmest (mid-upper 40`s) in the west
and coldest (upper 20`s) in the east.. with increasing cloud
cover during the afternoon as small amplitude shortwave energy
digs SSE toward the Central Plains.

Sun-Mon: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the
blocking ridge over the west CONUS raises anchor and progresses
east across the Rockies (Sun) and Central Plains (Mon).

Tue-Wed: Long range guidance suggests a transition to troughing
aloft over the central CONUS by mid-week.. on the eastern
periphery of renewed and rapidly amplifying ridge along the
Pacific Coast. Expect a cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1002 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds are forecast to increase around 18-19Z with speeds around
10-15 kts and some gusts around 20-25 kts. These should subside
and become more westerly around sunset. There is the possibility
of low ceilings and snow showers near around 18Z tomorrow, but
is more likely after 18Z.

For KMCK... VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 kts are
forecast for a majority of the period. Direction should vary
between southwest and northwest until stabilizing from the north
tonight. The main issue is that lower ceilings are forecast to
move in around 12Z. Ceilings could drop even sooner, closer to
6Z, so keep an eye out for updates. Height should originally
lower to around 1500-2500ft, but could drop below 1000ft as time
goes on. Snow showers are also possible, though they should
generally be light.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK