409
FXUS63 KGLD 041122
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
522 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and hazy today as temperatures climb into the 90s with
  smoke moving through the area.

- Storms, including a small chance for severe weather, are
  forecast to move through this evening from west to east. If a
  severe storm did occur, damaging wind gusts and large hail are
  the main threats.

- The weekend is forecast to be cooler with very low chances for
  showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

The early morning hours have seen a mix of fog and smoke across most
of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska, with low clouds
developing over Eastern Colorado. This is going to lead to an
interesting setup during the remainder of the morning hours.
For Eastern Colorado, the low cloud cover should begin to push
east as a low pressure system and beginnings of a front start
pushing east. This will shift the winds to out of the southwest,
advecting in some drier air. So there may be some early fog and
cloud cover, but skies should clear out fairly quickly. For NW
Kansas and SW Nebraska, the mix of fog/smoke should continue
through a few hours after sunrise. Generally speaking, the
fog/smoke combo shouldn`t be dense short of isolated pockets
with higher level cloud cover and lower dewpoints in place.
However, the moisture band located in Eastern Colorado should
push east through the area. As it does so, it may be moist
enough to allow for a band of dense fog to develop and move from
west to east. The only inhibitor is that the winds pushing it
east may also dry the air out a bit and limit the fog potential.

For the late morning and afternoon hours, skies are forecast to
clear out a bit from the cloud cover. The smoke should linger
through, keeping hazy skies in place over the area. The smoky skies
should keep temperatures from reaching their full potential, likely
capping out around 90. Otherwise, another upper trough is forecast
to push through the Plains, as the upper low over the Great Lakes
region prevents it from taking more of a easterly path. As the upper
trough pushes through, another low pressure system and cold front
are forecast to push through the area. This should bring in some
drier air as winds shift to be more from the west and northwest.
While relative humidity is forecast to drop into the upper teens,
critical fire weather conditions are not currently a concern. Winds
are forecast to be around 10 to 20 mph as the low pressure system is
forecast to be fairly broad over the area during the day.

During the evening hours, the low pressure is forecast to clear the
area and allow the higher pressure and colder air to move in. Along
the leading edge, there is a chance for some elevated showers/storms
as some slight saturation of the air is forecast due to a mix of
some mid level moisture moving in and cooling temperatures. With the
dry air at the surface, these showers/storms would likely be
scattered and not efficient rain producers. However, they could
produce a few strong wind gusts of 60-70 mph with high DCAPE
(inverted V soundings) and downshear vectors of 50-60 kts. The
favored area as of the morning forecast is along and south of
I-70. As the showers and storm move east, they are forecast to
move into a better area of instability, as long as the front
does not sweep the dry air completely through the area during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. This does lead to
concern for strong storms and hail, especially along and east of
Highway 25. Even then, the hail threat would be limited due to
the fast storm movement. So the overall severe threat remains
low today, but there will be plenty to watch this evening.
Another low chance threat to keep an eye on is the potential for
strong winds due to the passing front. Most guidance keeps wind
gusts below 45 mph as 3 hr pressure rises stay below 8mb. There
are a few outliers though that increase that to 12- 16mb. If a
strong pressure rise occurs, gusts could be closer to 50- 65 mph
instead. Overall chance in the stronger winds is about 20%.
While not so much a hazard, it is worth noting that smoke may
concentrate on the leading edge of the air mass change. This
could lead to more hazy skies until storms and the faster winds
kick in.

Tonight, winds are forecast to slowly lower as the high pressure
sets up and the pressure gradient weakens. Drier and colder air are
forecast to push into the area, removing the chance for fog. The mid
level moisture is forecast to persist most of the night, keeping
cloud cover in place and preventing temperatures from lowering to
their full potential. Still, the colder air should allow for
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The cooler temperatures behind the cold front will finally be
noticeable on Friday, with much cooler highs in the mid to
upper 60s. There`s a semi-decent spread (6 degrees) between the
25th percentile (mid 60s) and 75th percentile (low/mid 70s), so
temperatures may vary a degree or two. Models consistently pick
up on another upper low over the Baja Peninsula, however
discrepancies exist regarding the track of this low. Some models
have it pushing up through New Mexico and into the Plains, with
others weakening it out. Regardless, we`re in store for another
active pattern heading into next week. Details remain fuzzy at
this point, so check back for future forecast updates as
confidence builds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For KGLD... Low ceilings around 500-1000ft are forecast to
linger through about 14-15Z. Around that time, drier air should
move in from the west and clear out the clouds. Dense fog is
also possible, but would likely be brief as the drier air swept
the moisture out of the area. Smoke is forecast to linger in the
area through the day, but only be thick near the surface around
23-04Z. That time frame is also when the front is forecast to
move through. As the front moves through, showers and storms
will be possible while winds shift to out of the north with
gusts around 30 kts. Peak gusts could near 40 kts. After 06Z,
chances for storms should end and winds lower closer to 10 kts
or less. VFR conditions are currently forecast with dry near
surface air.

For KMCK... Low ceilings around 1500-2000ft are forecast to
linger through about 16Z. Fog and smoke combo should also linger
through about that time. The visibility restrictions have been
limited due to an insulating layer of higher cloud cover, so
dense fog is not currently forecast. Once the drier air moves
in, the fog, smoke, and low clouds should dissipate with only
smoke higher up above 5000ft. A cold front is forecast to move
through closer to 00Z, bringing a northerly wind shift with
stronger winds and gusts closer to 30 kts. Peak gusts could
reach 40 kts. There is currently only a 15% chance for
showers/storms as the front will likely push south too quickly
and limit the potential for the terminal. Some smoke may return
for the evening hours though. After 06Z, chances for storms and
smoke at the surface should end, allowing for VFR conditions.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Winds are forecast to strengthen after 8am MT gusting to 25 mph from
the SW; winds will then shift again to the NW gusting up to 30-35 mph
for a few hours from 1pm-4pm MT. Temperatures are forecast to warm
into the low 90s as humidity falls into upper teens to low 20s, an
hour or two of critical conditions are possible across western Yuma
and Kit Carson county due to deep mixing, but gusts to 25 mph appear
to be sporadic.  We will need to watch for the potential for
some dry thunderstorms to develop across Yuma and Kit Carson
county and move towards Dundy, Cheyenne (KS), and Sherman
counties between 4pm to 7pm MT possible. Fuels across Kit Carson and
Yuma counties are deemed mixed by local fuel experts with a
nudge towards more cured; but with the low confidence in the
development of the dry thunderstorms and the limited nature of
time and coverage of any critical conditions will be foregoing
any fire highlights for now. Those with flames however should
still use caution. Should these develop gusty and erratic wind
gusts to 50 mph areA cold front then moves through after 7pm MT
shifting winds again to the northeast with winds becoming gusty
to strong around 50-55 mph.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg