319
FXUS63 KGLD 021135
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may be possible again this morning, favoring NW
  Kansas and SW Nebraska

- Near average temperatures, with highs in the 80s are forecast
  through the Thursday. Dry conditions are forecast through at
  least Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures and slightly higher chances for
  showers/storms return over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Another early morning with low level clouds pushing into the area.
Satellite observations as of 1am MT showed low clouds extending from
Haigler, NE through Russell Springs, KS and east. Fog hasn`t been
able to set up yet, but that could change as we get closer to
sunrise. As the near surface layer gets more moist with dewpoint
depressions getting closer to 0, more fog should develop. The
question is how widespread will dense fog be, should any form. Winds
are beginning to shift to out of the west as the high pressure
center overtakes the area. While light, they may be just enough to
keep visibility around 2-6 miles with just low clouds come sunrise.

For the morning and afternoon hours, the higher surface pressure and
broad 850mb low are forecast to shift off to the east and allow
drier air to move in from the west. The drier air takeover might be
a little slow, with a broad pressure gradient generally keeping the
lower level flow below 10 mph. This should be just enough to clear
the area out through the morning and allow for sunshine during the
afternoon hours. With the sunshine, temperatures should warm into
the 80s.

For the evening and overnight hours, there could be a few
shower/sprinkles in Eastern Colorado and Southwestern Nebraska with
some mid-level moisture lingering and a shortwave moving through the
upper northwest flow. However, without a clear signal and an overall
downtrend in available moisture suggested from guidance, I have kept
precipitation chances below 10%. The chances for fog and cloud cover
during the overnight will be much lower due to the winds becoming
more stead from the west and continuing to advect in drier air.
There might be some mid to high cloud cover if storms form in the
region, but not enough to really affect conditions. Temperatures
should drop into the 50s, with some 40s possible in Eastern Colorado
depending on how dry the air becomes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The general unsettled pattern in the long-term is expected to remain
as we remain under northwesterly flow. We will have a high pressure
system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the
northeast of the Great Plains.

Wednesday and Thursday are becoming interesting days. We are
expecting a cold front to sweep through the area both of these days.
This will be enough forcing to start off some storms, especially
considering we`ll be under the right exit regions of the 500 & 250
mb jets. Wednesday`s convective potential looks slightly more
limited than Thursday as there will be less moisture to be working
with. Additionally, Thursday looks to warm up to around 90 for most
of the area, providing more instability to tap into. The NBM in
showing less than 15 PoPs for these days, but forecaster confidence
is 20-30% chance of isolated to scattered convection Wednesday and
35-50% confidence in scattered to widespread convection Thursday.
There will be a severe potential, but confidence for severe storms
is less than 15%.

Over the weekend, the GFS is showing a strong low near Baja
California moving across Arizona into the High Plains as another low
moves across the northwestern CONUS. Other models are showing the
mid-week low remaining near the Great Lakes and developing
additional troughs all around it, impacting the Great Plains. Either
way, it looks to be an active pattern for the upcoming weekend, but
details are up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast, but there is a cloud
deck about 5 to 10 miles east of the city as of 11Z with
ceilings around 500ft. Between that and the potential for fog,
be alert for potential changing conditions from VFR to IFR and
vice versa. By 15Z, any fog or stratus clouds that were
impacting the terminal should clear and allow for clear skies
the remainder of the time. Winds are forecast to shift to out of
the north through the day, then to out of the east and finally
out of the south overnight. Speeds should be below 10 kts.

For KMCK... Low cloud ceilings around 800-1500ft are forecast to
linger through 16Z. Fog with visibility between 3 and 8 SM has
also been observed and will likely continue through 14-16Z.
After 16Z (latest would be 18Z), the fog and clouds should clear
and allow for clear skies the remainder of the period. Fog and
low clouds are not forecast to form tonight due to encroaching
drier air from the west. Winds may remain below 5 kts through
the period. Otherwise they should be somewhat from the north
during the day, and switch to out of the south/southwest during
the overnight hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK