942
FXUS63 KGLD 250307
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
907 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will redevelop in western portions of the area late
  this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms capable of
  producing half dollar sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph
  are possible, generally west of a Yuma, Colorado, to Leoti,
  Kansas, line between 5 PM and 10 PM MDT.

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible late this
  evening and overnight, when thunderstorms are anticipated to
  increase in coverage over eastern Colorado and northwest
  Kansas.

- A cool and wet pattern continues into early next week, but
  chances for severe storms will be low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. Still
anticipating additional storm development further east as
isentropic ascent strengthens; any severe threat looks to be
rather low with the main hazard potentially being nuisance
flooding in towns and in low lying rural areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Outflow emanating from several rounds of morning convection in
eastern portions of the area (along/east of Hwy 25) continues to
march west toward/into eastern Colorado early this afternoon.
Per 19Z surface observations and radar/satellite data, the
western extent of this rain-cooled and relatively stable airmass
was located (roughly) along a line extending northwestward from
Scott City, KS to far southern Washington County, CO.. where at
least one updraft has recently developed (per 1920 UTC radar
data).. in the presence of moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg
mlcape) and 35-45 KT effective deep layer shear. With this in
mind, any convection developing along/near the aforementioned
westward moving outflow boundary could become severe (e.g.
a supercell capable of producing large hail and damaging winds)
during the early-mid afternoon, though.. with right-mover
motion from the N at ~20 knots, any cyclonic updrafts that
initiate west of the Goodland county warning area may tend to
remain west of the Goodland CWA. Otherwise, high-res convection
allowing guidance suggests that convection initiating along the
Colorado Front Range / I-25 corridor later this afternoon will
track eastward into eastern Colorado ~5-8 pm MDT (23-02Z).. when
and where a few severe storms capable of producing half dollar
size hail and/or 60 mph wind gusts are a possibility.
Thereafter, late this evening and overnight, convection allowing
guidance continues to suggest that convection will likely
become more numerous/widespread in nature over western KS..
where heavy rainfall and localized flooding are a possibility.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Monday-Tuesday: A blocked synoptic pattern, broadly
characterized by ridging aloft over the western CONUS and
troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS, will persist through
Tuesday. With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern,
expect conditions broadly similar to this weekend, i.e. below
average temperatures and above average precipitation chances,
though.. environmental conditions and convective development/
coverage will likely be a function of antecedent convection..
lending a fair amount of uncertainty to the precipitation
forecast on both days.

Wednesday-Saturday: Long range guidance suggests that the ridge
presently located over the Desert Southwest, Intermountain West
and portions of the Pacific Coast will deamplify and migrate
eastward over the central CONUS mid-late week as an upper level
low in the eastern Pacific gradually progresses eastward ashore
the Pacific Coast. Deamplification/weakening of the ridge.. and
the likely presence of a subtropical jet over Baja CA, the
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. may preclude any substantial
changes in sensible weather conditions compared to previous
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Overall, expecting to see conditions very from VFR to MVFR
primarily due to low ceilings as showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms move over the KGLD and KMCK terminals through ~18Z
Monday. Storm/shower activity could begin over KGLD around 04Z
tonight and KMCK between 02-04Z. The overall system should move
east across the area with storm motions allowing storms to also
move south to southeast individually. Hazards include heavy
rain, up to two inch hail, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. As the
night progress, we should see more of a transition to just rain
showers over the terminals through Monday morning. Outside of
any storm activity, winds should generally be light at 5-10 kts
out of the east to east-southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KMK