096
FXUS63 KGLD 310857
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
157 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above to much above normal temperatures for Friday through
  Sunday.

- Watching for fire weather conditions Saturday across southwest
  Nebraska.

- Large uncertainty with temperatures to start next week, but
  most solutions point to near or above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

The low pressure system which is currently located near the Red
River region of Texas/Oklahoma continues to move to the east
away from the area. As a result the last remnants of rain
showers is now exiting Graham and Gove counties as skies will
continue to clear across the area through the remainder of the
night. Some weak pressure rises looks to occur behind the
departing low which may lead to a few wind gusts around 20 mph
or so through the rest of the night helping keep temperatures
from bottoming out as dew points fall into the teens.

The main story through the weekend will be the above normal
temperatures Friday through Sunday. Lee troughing off of the
Rockies will help lead to downsloping winds resulting in an air
mass characterized by 850mb temperatures in the 8-10C range on
Friday, 1 0-12C on Saturday and 5-9C on Sunday; although Sunday
has a few other quirks which I will get into later on.

Starting with Friday high temperatures are currently forecast in the
mid 50s across the east to the low 60s across the west. I did nudge
high temperatures across east Colorado a little high than
guidance as winds are forecast to be from the southwest which is
a favored downsloping warming signal which typically results in
the warmer guidance verifying. Winds however a forecast to be
around 10-15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph; the 20 mph gusts
are anticipated to be infrequent due to the lack of any jets
across the area and will be solely based on diurnal mixing.
Relative humidity values are forecast to fall into the mid teens
across this area but with the lighter winds and infrequent
gusts around 20 mph my overall concern for fire weather
currently is low.

Saturday, has the potential to be the warmest day of the weekend but
the main variable in place will be cloud cover as some mid level
moisture advects in resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies
currently being forecast. Confidence is high in high temperatures
for the day reaching the 60s but how warm will they go. The area of
highest uncertainly lies across central portions of the area as the
axis of a surface trough will be present resulting in light and
variable winds so currently have highs forecast in the low 60s for
that region. Further south across Cheyenne county Colorado I did
nudge temperatures up a few degrees due to elevation changes
across the county as seen on topography maps as winds become
more SSW which is a downsloping feature for that part of the
area so currently thinking highs in the mid 60s across Cheyenne
county to the low to mid 60s further across the state line into
Kansas. The northern portion of the area I did increase into the
mid to upper 60s as the above mentioned surface trough looks to
be in place resulting in a NNW wind which again is a favored
downsloping warming wind direction. The biggest question mark
for that region will be how strong will winds get? Guidance does
favor an 850mb jet around 40 knots or so moving towards the
area which if it does make into the the southwest Nebraska
counties then wind gusts of 35-40 mph may be possible. Not all
guidance is agreeing on the location of the jet with the NAM
currently being the most aggressive which is interesting as the
NAM typically has a less windy bias so it will be interesting to
see if other guidance catches on to this. I did nudge the
forecast towards the breezier solution however. The next
question will be is fire weather concerns especially across
southwest Nebraska. If the wind does develop then it may strong
enough to mix down some slightly warmer and drier air but not
overly dry since we do have the increase in mid level moisture.
If this were to occur then dew points may end up being a little
lower than currently forecast into the mid teens which would
then support a near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions especially if the winds do end up panning out.
Overall confidence in critical fire weather occurring is around
30%; with a full 3 hour period of critical fire weather
conditions around 5% which is assuming we do dry out and warm up
a few degrees more than currently forecast. The forecast is
currently dry on Saturday but some virga or sprinkles may try
develop across Yuma county during the afternoon as a 700mb FGEN
band develops which coincides with the better moisture in the
atmosphere, but thinking that the low levels will be to dry for
anything to reach the surface outside of sprinkles.

Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move across the area during the
morning where winds may become breezy to gusty winds. The NAM is
again the breeziest with a stronger jet and better pressure rises
around 3-5mb versus the GFS which is slower with the front but keeps
the stronger winds via the jet and pressure rises across Nebraska. I
did increase winds a little bit around 15-20 mph sustained to
account for the windier solution verifying. If the NAM is right
and the windy solution does come to fruition then wind gusts of
35 to 45 mph would be possible during the mid to late morning
hours. Due to the timing differences of the front (which is the
quirk mentioned earlier) brings some differing solutions to the
temperature forecast. If the quicker frontal solution of the
NAM is right where it pass through in the morning hours then
high temperatures would be in the low 50s whereas if the slower
GFS is correct then high temperatures would warm into the upper
60s and maybe even warmer than that due to compressional
heating. Even looking at GEFS ensemble guidance there is still
around 50/50 split on which solution wants to pan out so for
this forecast package will continue with a middle of the road
forecast with highs in the upper 50s for the north and low to
mid 60s further south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

Over the past 24 hours, not much has changed in the long-term. A
fairly zonal flow is expected to setup in the upper-levels through
the period. Down in the lower-levels is where guidance goes in
different directions. For example, a high may form over the Great
Plains and either stay in Colorado through Monday, or make its way
to Missouri by Monday afternoon. Another possibility is a low ejects
from the Northern Rockies and moves across the Great Plains
throughout the day. This lower-level uncertainty continues through
Wednesday and is causing a massive spread in potential temperatures.
The 25-75 NBM maximum temperature spreads range from 15 to 35
degrees each day Monday through Wednesday. Even with this massive
spread, there is consistency that the northeastern CWA will be 10-20
degrees cooler than the southwestern CWA. In the northeastern CWA,
NBM 25-75 high temperatures range from freezing to upper 50s, In the
southwestern CWA, they range from low 50s to upper 70s. Minimum
temperatures are also a toss up with spreads ranging around 10-25
with the northeastern CWA again seeing cooler temperatures, likely
in the teens to mid 20s. The southwestern CWA could range from the
upper teens to low 40s.

Around Wednesday, the 850 mb LLJ is expected to increase to the 25-
45 kts range from the south-southwest, pumping moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico into the Great Plains. Given that this is the point
where guidance starts coming back together, there`s a 50-60% chance
this moisture will stay east of the CWA and not increase PoPs.
However, that does leave a healthy ~40% chance that the moisture
will increase PoPs for the CWA. Most likely time for precipitation
would be Wednesday evening to Thursday evening. This would be
sparked be a lee low forms off the Northern Rockies and moves east-
southeast. This does not mean there is a 40% chance of
precipitation, that`s closer to 20-25%, with the remaining 15-20%
resulting in heavy cloud cover, potentially some fog or drizzle, too.

Temperature spreads on Thursday and Friday actually narrow down as
most models are agreeing on a high following the low, which will
bring in cooler temperatures into the region. Highs these days look
to be limited to the mid 30s to mid 40s with the cooler temperatures
in the northern CWA. Overnight Thursday and Friday, we cannot rule
out the potential for single digits temperatures in our Nebraska
counties, but the rest of the area will cool into the teens.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 907 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds are
currently northwest around 10kts and will back to the west-
southwest from 20z Friday onward. NW gusts 20-25kts are
possible from 09z-14z. LLWS 14z-20z Friday 350@40kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
north-northwest around 10kts through 23z, then light/variable.
by 01z Saturday though, they will become southeasterly 5-10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN