766
FXUS63 KGLD 121741
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1141 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds are forecast to gust up to 45 mph through this evening
  as a cold front moves across the Tri-State area. Some showers
  are also possible, primarily along and north of I-70. Overall
  chances are around 15-20%.

- Monday night has a better chance for showers (30-50% chance).
  Patches of dense fog may also form.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Wednesday could see the return
  of strong winds with gusts above 50 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mid morning observations showed a cold front had moved about halfway
through the area. The front should be through the entire area by the
early afternoon hours. With front through the area, winds should be
from the north with drier air in place at the surface. With this,
dry conditions are forecast with mostly clear skies. Temperatures
should generally level out in the 70s and low 80s. Mid to upper
level moisture should stream over the area late in the day and
increase cloud cover.

Tonight, mostly cloudy skies are forecast as the higher level
moisture moves in. The moisture moving in may allow for a few higher
based showers to form, similar to the last few days. If the showers
do form, they will likely provide minimal accumulation as the front
brings in dewpoints in the 20s and 30s near the surface. Winds
should lower with higher pressure slowly moving in and with the
surface low broadening and becoming less deep. The current forecast
calls for lows to be in the 40s, but some 30s may be possible in the
west due to the lighter winds if cloud cover can clear.

Monday, the area is forecast to be in southwest flow aloft with
another trough to the west and a ridge amplifying to the south. So
while colder air and higher pressure will move into the area, we are
unlikely to see the coldest air and higher pressure as it gets
deflected north. Highs should still be much cooler in the 60s with
mostly cloudy skies, but not as cold as it could be. This setup is
also forecast to give the area low level flow from the
south/southeast. While unlikely to lead to anything during the day,
the low level flow should advect moisture in and maybe allow for
some showers.

Monday evening and night, low level moisture advection is forecast
to continue. As the air saturates, chances for showers and fog will
increase, favoring the southern parts of the area where moisture is
advecting into. Isentropic analysis suggests that there will be
enough upglide for showers to develop across most of the area. In
areas where it is not raining, the saturated lower levels and
upslope flow from the southeast winds could allow for pockets of
dense fog to form. With the increase in moisture and cloud cover in
the area, low should generally be around 50, with 40s possible
further north if the moisture doesn`t move in fast enough.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Tuesday is forecast to be a fairly seasonable day as the area
remains in southwest flow aloft and sees clearing from moisture
slowly pushing off to the east. There could still be a few showers
that linger, especially in the east and south. Otherwise, the cloud
cover and lack of airmass change should have highs around 70. Winds
should strengthen a tad as low pressure redevelops along the Front
Range with speeds around 10 to 25 mph.

Wednesday, guidance is becoming more aggressive on the upper trough
in the west advancing east and deepening. In this scenario,
Wednesday would be a warm and windy day. The advancing trough may
help the ridge amplify which would give temperatures in the 80s,
especially with southerly warm air advection. The winds would become
strong as the low on the Front Range would deepen with the trough
and increase the pressure gradient. The height fields to would
become tighter with the advancing trough. In this scenario, speeds
around 25-35 mph and gusts to 60 mph are possible. If this scenario
doesn`t pan out, the trough would instead broaden as it moves east,
lessening how deep it becomes and how deep the surface low becomes.
We would still likely warm into the 80s, but winds would be more
likely to be like Saturday, with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts
to 50 mph. Precipitation chances are currently low with dry air
forecast to intrude into the area.

For the end of the week, the current forecast pattern is for the
Plains to be under broad troughing aloft after the main trough axis
swinging through. With this, the area would be more seasonable with
highs in the 60s and 70s and winds around 10-20 mph. Showers and
storms are possible, especially on Thursday as the remainder of the
front passes through and potentially drags some mid-level moisture
through with it. We`ll need to keep an eye out for any reinforcing
trough or cold air surge, as that could allow us to have better
chances at reaching freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites.
cloud cover generally above 10000ft may pass through, but clear
conditions are forecast otherwise. There could be a few showers
between 03-09Z that move near or over the terminals, but the
overall chance is less than 15%. No impacts are expected with
any showers that form. Winds today will remain from the north
with speeds around 20 kts and gusts near 30 kts. Winds overnight
are forecast to shift more to out of the east and lower to
around 10-15 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK