369
FXUS63 KGLD 190807
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 15-20% chance of isolated to widely scattered storms this
  afternoon and evening capable of downburst wind gusts around
  60 mph. Locations along and east of a Tribune to McCook line
  is currently favored.

- Warm temperatures in the 90s are forecast for the rest of the
  work week before cooler temperatures moves in this weekend and
  into the start of next week; rain chances also increase this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Numerous surface highs are in place in wake of the rainfall from
this evening resulting in mainly light and variable winds across
most of the area. Clouds are starting to dissipate as the forcing
moves away from the area which may lead to some fog development
starting around 5am MT currently thinking to favor Dundy down
through Greeley county on west due to where the the longer clearing
has taken place thus far; this may need to be expanded east but will
depend on how quickly cloud cover can dissipate.

For today, the upper level ridge is forecast to continue to amplify
continuing the lighter winds although winds will become more ESE
through the day as the surface highs move off to the east. High
temperatures do look to be a tad bit cooler than yesterday with
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area. Guidance has
trended down with high temperatures a few degrees but I kept the
temperatures similar to the previous shift due to the amplification
of the high pressure across the area. Dew points have trended up
however which may be the source of the "cooler" temperatures. During
the afternoon and early evening hours a 500mb vorticity max looks to
move north to south along and east of Highway 25 where some isolated
to widely scattered storms may develop. A lot less favorable
environment will be in place today for severe weather with less
shear to work with but would not be surprised if a rogue
microburst wind gust were to occur. Storm potential looks to
begin around 3pm CT and continue through to the south through
10pm CT. Guidance is hinting at another fog/stratus potential
Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning east of Highway 25 so
will need to continue to monitor for this potential in upcoming
shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be warm and fairly dry
with the upper ridge over the area. Highs should warm into the
90s with generally sunny/clear skies due to the upper
subsidence. With this, chance for precipitation are very low as
most of the shortwaves should stay north of the area, short of
maybe on Thursday depending on how long the ridge can remain
amplified. Winds are forecast to be generally below 20 mph with
weak flow through the air column due to the ridge.

The weekend is forecast to bring a pattern change as an upper
trough pushes into the Plains and Great Lakes region on Friday.
The current forecast progression would still allow Friday to be
warm with highs in the 90s with the ridge in place through most
of the day. There looks to only be a 10% chance that the trough
pushes through quickly enough that Friday would be cooler. A
quicker progression would also hinder storms chances for Friday.
Otherwise, the front/low that is tied to the upper trough
should move through during the day and help spark some storms
during the afternoon and evening. We should have enough moisture
for severe storms to form with the forcing moving through the
area. After the front/low move through, generally cooler
temperatures with highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast. Storm
chances may continue through the weekend as long as the trough
doesn`t push through too far south and bring the center of
higher pressure over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Aside from a potential for lingering showers/storms (and
gusty/erratic winds) at the very beginning of the TAF period
(late this evening and very early Tue morning, or ~05-08Z Tue)..
VFR conditions and light/variable winds will otherwise prevail
at both terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent