954
FXUS63 KGLD 300609
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1209 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Friday.

- Drying out with a warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A narrow band of light rain will persist along the I-70 corridor
overnight, gradually moving south and expanding through Thursday
morning in areas south of Interstate 70, then weakening by mid
day. Favorable jet positioning, occasional shortwave energy,
and a surface front sagging south out of Nebraska are all
contributing to lift. This afternoon, may see scattered
thunderstorms develop along the front near or just north of
Interstate 70. Instability remains quite limited at only 100-200
j/kg, though deep layer shear is forecast to be around 50 kts.
Did see some marginally severe hail in a similar environment
over the past few days, so cannot completely rule that out, but
overall severe threat is low. Any thunderstorms will dissipate
by early evening with loss of surface heating. Front appears to
wash out tonight with light winds across the entire area. Any
lingering precipitation across the southern areas should also be
dissipating. On Friday, there is a push of drier air with
northwest winds advecting dew points in the teens and 20s into
the area. In fact, may see a few hours of near critical fire
weather in the afternoon as relative humidity drops into the
middle teens and those winds gust up to 20 kts at times. May
see widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon on the leading edge of those winds and lower dew
points, south of Interstate 70 and mainly south of Highway 96.
Once again will see very limited instability with somewhat
reduced deep layer shear of 20-30 kts, so not expecting any
severe threat. Any convection should dissipate fairly early in
the evening with loss of surface heating.

Temperatures remain below normal today, especially in the rain
cooled areas along/south of Interstate 70 where a few locations
may see highs in the 40s. Temperatures will be closer to normal
on Friday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows will be in the
30s, and may see some patchy frost and a light freeze both
Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Going into the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge
pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in
the 70s for Saturday and 70s to 80s for Sunday. Elevated fire
weather conditions are possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative
humidity (RH) values are forecast in the the mid teens with gusts up
to 25 mph possible for the western CWA. RH values will likely change
in response to showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but
still something to monitor for as the week progresses. Sunday, a Rex
blocking pattern is forecast to develop on the west coast with a
ridge near the Canadian border and a low pressure system near
California. Until this blocking pattern starts to move east, we will
see fairly consistent weather for the remainder of the forecast
period. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and potential for
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as several shortwaves
traverse through the region. GEFS Ensemble members differ on when
this pattern will move on, but it will likely move on after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

At KGLD...showers will impact the terminal off and on through
most of the day. MVFR will be predominant flight category due to
visibility reductions in light rain as well as slightly lowered
ceilings. Can`t rule out a brief period of IFR with a passing
heavier shower, or VFR between them, but timing is uncertain so
carried a prolonged period of MVFR through 00Z. The showers
should begin to move south tonight with a return to VFR.

At KMCK...patchy fog will continue to impact the the terminal
through the overnight. Visibility may briefly drop to IFR at
times, but mostly remain MVFR. Expecting a return to VFR by
early this morning as the shower activity remains south in
Kansas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...024