103
FXUS63 KGLD 020620
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1220 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Low chances around 10-30% each day for a few isolated storms
  through much of the work week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the
  week, but overall severe risk will be low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1219 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Today and tomorrow, the pattern is forecast to be stagnant. In the
upper levels, the upper trough is forecast to remain over the
Northwestern United States with ridging over the Southeastern United
States. A shortwave ridge is forecast to also amplify over the
Plains. This should keep the area fairly warm with high temperatures
in the 90s for most of the area and 100s along and east of Highway
83. The surface low is forecast to remain in place over the Plains
with the center north of the area. This should keep the winds from
the south at 5-15 mph both days. There is about a 10% chance for
storms each during the late afternoon and evening hours with storms
developing along the higher terrain to the west. However, the air is
forecast to become drier, lowering instability and support for
storms. Lows each night should be in the 60s towards the west, and
70s towards the east.

Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit during the
daytime hours. While conditions should still be fairly similar to
the prior days, temperatures may be a bit warmer with more of the
area climbing into the 100s. Winds should initially start light, but
may increase depending on what the upper trough does. There is a
split in ensembles on whether it tries to move a bit east, or stay
in place. So even though the ridge amplifies a bit, the advancement
of the trough would likely deepen the surface low a bit and
strengthen the winds to be more around 10-15 mph with gusts around
25 mph.

Storms again are possible late in the afternoon and during the
evening hours. The drier air isn`t forecast to help, but the forcing
may be better across the area. Between the upper trough maybe moving
closer and the deepening low creating a better convergence zone,
there should be better support for storms. This again is contingent
though on the trough advancing to some degree. If so, storms would
be possible across the area, but would likely do better in NW Kansas
and SW Nebraska where more moisture is forecast to be available.
Severe weather may be possible if storms are able to form, but would
likely only support wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe hail around
an inch with effective shear around 25 kts. As such, there is only
about a 5% chance of the area seeing any severe weather. Overnight,
a few showers and storms may linger if the jet is strong enough.
Otherwise, lows should again drop into the 60s in the west with 70s
in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Saturday throughout Tuesday, the upper level ridge starts to
weaken over the weekend and plateau over the Central and
Northern Plains before sliding to the east at the end of the
period. There is some uncertainty within the guidance as the low
pressure in the Northwest Pacific coast starts to move east
causing some inconsistencies within the models. Although, this
will help temperatures continue to be above normal and bring in
potential chances for rain later in the period as embedded
shortwave troughs become more prevalent. High confidence (70-80%)
that temperatures will start in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and
drop into the mid 90s Sunday. Confidence drops to low (30%) on
Monday as NBM 75th to 25th percentile temperature spread becomes
more than 10 degrees over the northern half of the County Warning
Area (CWA). This could see potential highs within the low 90s for
both Monday and Tuesday due to possible showers.

Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for showers later in the
period has increased overnight due to the low pressure potentially
moving east with continuing upper level southwesterly flow and
diurnal heating still being the main driving force. There is high
confidence (70%) for showers on Saturday as not much change has
happened with it still having relatively low chances being around
20% within the majority of the CWA. However, there is low to
medium confidence (25-40%) that showers could occur between Sunday
night and Tuesday night as there is inconsistency within the
upper level pattern and embedded shortwave troughs passing through.
Overall, chances for showers to occur will be around 30% in the
northwestern half of the CWA and 20% in the southeastern half.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For both KGLD and KMCK, expect VFR conditions through the TAF
Period. Winds are forecast to be from the south and around 6-10 kts.
Tomorrow afternoon (9/2), a surface low is forecast to move
through the area. There is a 10-15% chance of there being gusts
up to 25 kts starting at 19Z at both terminals, due to lower
confidence of where the low sets up.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024/Moeller
AVIATION...Holdren