377
FXUS63 KGLD 042226
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
426 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper ridge has reorganized over the Southern and Central Plains
and will be the dominant upper feature. The Central High Plains
will be under weak southwest flow on the western side of the
ridge axis through the weekend. Upper winds do increase some on
Monday as a shortwave trough swings through the Northern Rockies
and adjacent plains and the ridge moves into Missouri.

CAMs show isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon
and evening generally along a weak convergent boundary that
extends from around Tribune in northwest Kansas to McCook in
southwest Nebraska. Relatively best storm coverage will be on
the southern end, with more isolated coverage further north.
REFS shows instability ranging from 500-1000 j/kg along the
Kansas and Colorado border to up to 2500 j/kg from McCook to
Norton. Deep layer shear is around 25 kts. While the probability
of severe weather will be low, cannot completely rule out a
marginally severe wind gust given favorable DCAPE of up to 1500
j/kg. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible given slow
storm motions and precipitable water values of 1.00-1.50". Peak
coverage will be around 03z, but isolated showers and storms may
persist into the overnight.

Setup for Saturday will be similar to today. Another wave in
the southwest flow will initiate convection in eastern Colorado
in the afternoon which then moves east into the area during the
evening hours. REFS shows instability of 1000-1500 j/kg and
deep layer shear of 15-20 kts. CAMs suggest much better coverage
with the convection on Saturday, with initial discrete cells in
Colorado rapidly merging into clusters in northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska in the evening. DCAPE continues to be
favorable and wind will be the primary severe hazard. Flooding
concerns may develop during the evening hours with the weak flow
aloft promoting slow storm motions. CAMs show localized 6-hour
precipitation amounts in excess of 2" as they move through the
area. Storm coverage peaks in the evening then gradually
declines through the overnight hours.

Upper ridge axis will be almost directly over the area on
Sunday. CAMs show convection developing in southeast Colorado as
well as the usual mountain and Front Range convection in the
afternoon. Locally, convection will struggle under the ridge
and chances will be isolated at best, primarily associated with
weakening showers and storms in the evening originating from the
Front Range.

Ridge moves east on Monday with increasing southwesterly flow
over Colorado. Models show fairly widespread convection
developing in the afternoon in eastern Colorado and moving
northeast into the area Monday night. With those storm motions
best chances will be in the northeast corner in the evening
(Tri-border area) then continuing into Nebraska overnight.
Instability and shear forecasts remain on the weak side, though
deep layer shear does approach 30 kts in northeast Colorado with
the increasing flow aloft. However, overall severe threat
appears marginal at best with wind the primary hazard. Heavy
rain should be less of a threat with the faster storm motions.

Little change in temperature is indicated through the period,
with highs mostly in the 90s, a few spots potentially hitting
triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Starting on Tuesday, the upper-level ridge pattern starts to
stall southward and becomes elongated over the majority of
the northern half of the United States as the low pressure moves
eastward over southern Canada. It then reamplifies again over
the South-Central Plains on Friday. This will allow a weak to
moderate strength cold front to pass through the area Tuesday
evening, small chances for showers throughout the rest of the
period, and keeping temperatures above average. There is medium
to high confidence (55-70%) that this cold front will cause
storms to be minimally severe. Storms are expected to be fast-
moving towards the east-northeast with upper-level shear values
being 40 kts. Instability and moisture seems to be the limiting
factor as Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) will be around 775 J/kg as
well as a large surface dew point depression of 35F degrees
could be present and a strong, elevated dry layer above 6 km
high. Primary hazards look to be moderate-to-strong winds and a
slight chance for hail under an inch.

Throughout the remainder of the week, confidence for
afternoon-to-evening showers starts to  progressively decrease
to 10% as diurnal and weak embedded shortwave troughs will be
the main driving forces for showers. Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) has 15% or less for showers over the majority of the
forecast area.

Even with the chances for storms and showers, temperatures will
remain above average, but will decrease over time. There is
medium confidence (50%) that temperatures Tuesday will be in the
upper 90s due to the cold front moving through. The NBM 75th to
25th percentile range spans 8 F degrees and at the time of the
that could drop temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Wednesday,
temperatures will be in the mid 90s whereas Thursday and Friday
will likely drop into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 424 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight have a low
probability, around 20%, of impacting either location with brief
gusty winds as well as reductions in visibility and ceilings in
rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/Moeller
AVIATION...024