167
FXUS63 KGLD 231641
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
941 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend will continue through early next week, warmest
  on Monday and Tuesday when high temperatures are expected to
  reach the mid 60`s to near 70F.

- Potential for near critical to briefly critical fire weather
  conditions on Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are mainly
clear, with some scattered high clouds currently approaching the
western portion of the CWA. There is a light westerly downslope
wind area- wide as of 100 AM MST, which is allowing for
temperatures to range in the mid 20s to the lower 30s.

Little change in current guidance for the upper level pattern
during the short term period. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis
along with mid level water vapor imagery are showing broad NW
flow aloft over the central Plains due to a strong ridge over
the west. This is expected to meander slowly to zonal flow
through the Tue-Tue night timeframe. Both the GFS/NAM show a
couple weak shortwaves that will push through the NW flow on
Monday and again Tuesday evening.

Today/tonight...high clouds currently pushing through the
region this morning resulting from a passage of a shortwave
should clear the region by 12z-14z, still resulting in sunny
skies later today. Current surface analysis is showing a weak
trough that will push through the eastern CWA as a ridge
continues to build east off the Rockies and settles south of the
area, resulting in a warming westerly downslope flow area-wide
to continue. Expecting much more melting of the remaining
snowpack and warmer conditions than yesterday w/ 850mb temps
around +9c to +12c. Going into tonight, 1000-500mb RH showing
some increase overnight so looking for some increase in clouds.
This increase combined with a persistent westerly flow should
allow for overnight temps to be slightly warmer than current due
to lack of radiational cooling.

Monday/Monday night...a surface trough passing over the CWA by
midday in combination with an 850/700mb shortwave will allow for
a brief shift to northwest flow in the afternoon before
shifting back to the west for Monday night. A low level jet does
accompany the shortwave passage w/ the potential for mixing
down 20-30kts especially for areas west of Highway 27 into
northeast Colorado. The track of the shortwave in current model
runs is a bit further north than 24 hours ago, so best mixing
could occur just north of the CWA. Looking for warmer temps
area-wide on Monday as 850 mb temps climb slightly from today`s
numbers.

And finally for Tuesday/Tuesday night...high pressure over the
region during the daytime hours will give way to a surface
trough/front during the evening hours. This will be ahead of
another shortwave. Guidance carries this system a bit further
north and east of the area, with the western fringe of the
system quickly skirting the eastern zones between 00z-06z Wed.
Went for a 10% chance for sprinkles in the east w/ its passage
as low level moisture lacking and the system is fairly
progressive. The surface trough/front passage by sunset will
allow for a W/SW flow to shift to more N/NW and persist
overnight. Gradient behind the boundary could bring some gusts
towards 20 mph for most. Areas in Colorado could see closer to
the 25 mph mark.

For temps, looking for highs today to range in the mid 50s
through the mid 60s. Warmest areas along/south of Highway 40.
Going into Monday, highs will range from the mid to upper 60s
north of Highway 40, and upper 60s to lower 70s along/south of
Highway 40. Going into Tuesday, mid 60s to lower 70s w/ warmest
locales along and east of Highway 25.

Overnight lows tonight and Monday night will range in the upper
20s to the mid 30s. Going into Tuesday night, a wide range is
expected with mid 20s to around 30F for areas along/west of
Highway 27. East of this, upper 20s through the mid 30s. Warmest
areas along/east of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

The long-term will see dry conditions with warmer temperatures.
No moist air looks to make a return in the long- term, allowing
the sky to favor more clear conditions and greatly reduce PoPs.
An upper- level ridge will dominate the period until Saturday
with a few waves moving through.

Wednesday early morning, a trough will cut through the Great
Plains. A surface cold front is expected with this trough, but
once again, due to a lack of moisture, PoPs are less than 10.
The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH are still showing a northerly 850 mb
LLJ around 40 kts. However, the LLJ looks to occur around 3-12Z
Wednesday, when our diurnal inversion normally buffers the
surface from the 850 winds, lowering confidence in 40 kts winds
at the surface. If the winds are continuous, the PBL would
remain mixed, allowing for some of these winds to reach the
surface. Confidence in multiple gusts reaching 40 kts is around
35-40%. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day in the long-term,
only warming into the upper 50s. The rest of the long-term looks
to warm into the 60s.

Due to the dry air that will be over the Great Plains next
week, RH values Wednesday through Friday are dipping into the
teens. We`ve already mentioned Wednesday`s winds, but Friday is
showing some gusts in the 25 kts range. The dry conditions with
gusty winds are increasing concerns for critical fire weather;
confidence in hitting Red Flag Warning criteria is around 20%
with Friday so far looking like the best chance, generally along
and south of I-70 in eastern Colorado.

Over the weekend, an upper-level low looks to sweep across the
southwestern CONUS and into the southern High Plains by Monday.
It`s too far out to say exactly what this low will do and when
it`ll do it, but it is a feature to keep an eye on in the coming
week.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
GFS - Global Forecast System
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
CMC-NH - Canadian Meteorological Centre-Northern Hemisphere
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
PBL - Planetary Boundary Layer
LLJ - Low Level Jet
RH  - Relative Humidity
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area
CONUS - CONtiguous United States

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 940 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

GLD: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through
the TAF period.. with cloud cover confined to transient wisps of
cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. Expect WNW to WSW winds at
10-15 knots throughout the day.. decreasing to 5-10 knots late
this evening and overnight. NW winds will increase to 12-17
knots late Monday morning (~17-18Z).. further increasing to
15-25 knots Monday afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through
the TAF period.. with cloud cover confined to occasional cirrus
at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. Expect WNW to WSW winds at 10-15
knots throughout the day.. decreasing to 5-10 knots this evening
and overnight. Light (5-10 knot) westerly winds will shift to
the NW and increase to 15-25 knots late Monday morning (at or
very near the end of the 18Z TAF period). A period of low level
wind shear is anticipated at the MCK terminal late this evening
and overnight (~05-11Z Mon), when a ~40 knot northwesterly low-
level jet (~1500 ft AGL) will impinge upon southwest Nebraska.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent