899
FXUS63 KGLD 081700
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms again this evening with a low
  probability, less than 20%, of wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday night with areas
  of 1-3" possible in northwest Kansas.

- Above normal temperatures today, cooling to near normal on
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current observations have the area in southwest flow aloft as we are
between broad ridging to the southeast and broad troughing to the
northwest. Near the surface, we have the low pressure system over
most of the area with the front roughly around a line from Sharon
Springs, KS to Norton, KS. For areas north of the front, winds are
from the north at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20-25 mph. Highs are
forecast to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s with any lingering
showers fading by the early afternoon. Those south of the front have
winds roughly from the south/southwest at 15 gust 25-30 mph. Their
high temperatures should still reach the upper 90s and maybe even
lower 100s.

As we get into the afternoon and evening hours, storms should fire
up along the frontal boundary around 2-5pm MT, 3-6pm CT. With the
frontal boundary likely to have moved farther south from its current
position, there is a chance that the area avoids this first round of
storms. Otherwise, everyone south of the aforementioned current
placement of the front would likely see storms during the afternoon.
These initial storms would be unlikely to be sub-severe, with MUCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg and 20-30 kts of 0-6km shear. As we go into
the evening, the storm motion may carry storms north into the area.
There is also the chance that additional storms move in from the
west as storms develop along the Front Range while an upper trough
axis swings through the region. Should these storms cluster and move
far enough east, they should push through after about 8pm MT from
west to east. On top of posing a small severe threat with better
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30-40 kts, this
could also lead to a flooding threat if the cluster combines with
storms that formed along the front. In regards to the severe threat,
currently thinking hail around an inch in diameter and 65 mph wind
gusts are the likely hazards. This cluster/grouping of storms would
then likely impact areas around and south of I-70 through most of
the evening and early overnight hours. The exception is if the front
pulls to far south and causes everything to miss the area.
Currently, there is about a 65% chance we see this cluster move
through the area. Temperatures tonight will likely hove in the 60s
and 70s with the showers and storms in the area.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to go more zonal as the
troughing becomes broad to the north and the ridge is broad over the
south. With the surface low and front likely well south of the area,
a slightly colder air mass should be in place over the area and keep
temperatures more in the 80s. A few 90s are possible south of
Highway 40. Winds should be from the north at 10-15 mph with gusts
around 20-25 mph. Storm chances are much lower and limited to south
of Highway 40 with much of the forcing south of the area. There may
be some storms that move in from the west as well if an upper trough
axis doesn`t swing too far south. Should a storm move into the area,
it will likely be sub-severe like the prior few days. May see a
marginal severe storm with a wind gust around 60 mph.

Thursday, the upper flow is forecast to be zonal again with
conditions mostly similar to Wednesday. The main difference will be
a developing low pressure in the Northern High Plains will shift
winds to out of the south at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Otherwise, temperatures should again warm into the 80s. Shower and
storm chances are currently forecast to be less than 15% with no
clear forcing mechanism over or near the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A surface low is favored to form across the Northern and Central
Plains in the right entrance region of a modest 50-70 kt 500-mb jet
streak Friday. A cold front looks to be trailing the surface
low as a surface high intrudes into the Northern United States.
Southerly flow is anticipated out ahead of the surface low,
though it is currently uncertain how soon the cold front will
pass over the forecast region. LREF standard deviation in wind
direction highlights this point, as a broad area from the
Dakotas down through the South-Central High Plains shows a
spread of 70-90 degrees in wind direction. Additionally, there
is some uncertainty in how strong the cold front will be.
Forecast highs Friday are currently in the low to mid 90s,
though about 10-20% of NBM solutions show a faster, stronger
cold front which would prevent highs from reaching the 90s. Dry
conditions are also forecast across our Eastern Colorado
Counties, where winds are primarily expected out of the west to
northwest. LREF guidance shows a 30-50% chance across this area
that relative humidity (RH) values drop below 20%. This may
implicate fire weather as a concern, especially if stronger
winds are experienced with the cold front Friday. NBM guidance
across Western Yuma County shows around a 1 in 3 chance that
wind gusts will reach 25 mph or higher. Confidence in Red Flag
conditions being met (25 mph or greater gusts, and 15% or less
RH for 3 hours) is less than 5%, although this will continue to
be a point to watch as we approach the weekend.

By Saturday, another trough is favored to be digging into the
Western United States, moving eastward toward the forecast region
through the weekend. A surface low at the leading edge is forecast
to move into the Central Rockies Saturday, allowing southerly winds
to return to the forecast area. Even so, highs only have about a 30-
40% chance on Saturday, and a 40-50% chance on Sunday to reach back
into the 90s. This could certainly depend on how cool things can
drop with Friday`s cold front, but the surface winds also have an
easterly component as opposed to a westerly component, which would
prevent the hotter solution. There is the possibility for some
precipitation on Saturday ahead of the low, but NBM guidance
suggests that most areas have less than a 20% chance of receiving
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. These chances increase a
bit on Sunday into the 25-40% range as the low moves into Eastern
Colorado and Wyoming. These higher probabilities are primarily
across Southwest Nebraska and Northern Yuma County in Colorado,
where a warm front may reside. However, some storms may develop
ahead of an incoming cold front as well. Some storms may be allowed
to become severe, as LREF guidance shows up to a 75% chance that
sfc-500mb shear will be above 30 kts. Even so, the same
guidance shows that it is most likely (>80%) that storms will
only have a few hundred J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) at their disposal. Therefore, the
favored solution is that showers and weak thunderstorms would
occur, with a storm or two that could become marginally severe.

The cold front from this system is currently forecast to pass
through the area sometime Sunday evening or overnight. There are
still some timing issues with the system`s eastward progression,
though temperatures are expected to be a bit more temperate upon
passage of this cold front. High temperatures are currently forecast
in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday. It is important to note that
GEFS and EC ensembles show larger amounts of spread in 500-mb
heights ahead of the trough, which would be associated with a faster
progression. If this is the case, these conditions could be
experienced as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Winds should remain roughly from the north when storms
aren`t around. Sustained speeds should be around 15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts until about 01-04Z, then speeds will likely
lower to around 5-10 kts. Keep an eye out for storms as early as
00Z. Storm chances favor south of both sites, but storms will be
possible through 12Z, especially at KGLD. If a storm makes it,
be alert for wind gusts above 40 mph and frequent lightning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KAK