667
FXUS63 KGLD 040010
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of storms forecast to sweep the region Friday around
  midday into evening. Marginal risk of severe weather with the
  main threat being strong to damaging winds.

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
  into next week.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Rest of today...

Breezy day across the Plains. Remnant shortwave vortex lifting NE
over the 4-corners region ahead of a set of trof axes and attendant
shortwaves ejecting E through the N Pacific jet. Enhancement of the
SW to NE pressure gradient throughout the atmospheric column along
with the gradual deepening of a lee cyclone immediately E of the
Rockies. Increasing S winds drawing N deep sub-tropical moisture,
notably from FWD / OUN where 12z soundings exhibit a near-saturated
column with +2 inch precipitable waters. Low to mid level moisture
continually advecting N, as can be seen via visible satellite, ever
so slightly cooling the column. With daytime mixing well up to 5-10
kft along with expected midday to afternoon scattered cumulus, we
should be a degree or two cooler than yesterdays highs, forecast
today around the low 90s. Surface dewpoints maintained around 60
should keep minimum relative humidity above 30 percent. The main
impact today will be gusty S winds. Mix down of faster momentum with
deep layer mixing should yield sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph
with gusts around 25 mph, as high as around 35 mph possible.

Tonight...

Increasing low clouds. With surface temperatures cooling resulting
in the boundary layer decoupling it`ll still remain breezy at the
surface. But stronger winds aloft will continue to advect moisture N
and subsequently pooling beneath the anticipated inversion we will
likely see the development of low stratus into the morning hours.
With the S winds and developing cloud deck, the blanket across the
region should keep lows mild with values around the mid 60s.

Friday into Friday night...

Line of storms forecast to sweep through the forecast area beginning
around midday going into evening. Main threats will be locally heavy
rainfall along with strong to damaging winds with gusts possibly as
high as 70 mph.

Synoptically, remnant shortwave energy ejects from the Rockies into
the N Plains. Enhancement of low-mid level S winds, sub-tropical
moisture is usurped N. While better surface cyclone development is
progged across the N Plains beneath the RRQ of H3 jet, a trailing
cold front SW towards a triple point low to the lee of the Rockies
will be the focus for midday into afternoon convection. A series of
trof axes through the broader SW to NE cyclonic flow will be the
forcing mechanisms that will touch of the forecast line of thunder-
storms, given more confidence in outcomes per convective allowing
models.

Yet some uncertainty. For one, how quickly we break out from morning
low stratus and begin destabilizing prior. This yields implications
for how much instability can be generated. A consensus of convective
allowing models have upwards of 2k J/kg potentially maxing above 3k
J/kg. Secondly, the timing of synoptic features initiating potential
storm development. It is entirely possible that things could kick
off earlier than expected. Third, deep layer bulk shear that will
maintain updraft maintenance. For certain the sweeping cold front
will provide the lift. Yet overall shear looks weak to marginal. Yet
right-moving storm motions and mean layer winds have an orthogonal
component to the front, and should storms perhaps create their own
local environment with an enhancement to the wind profile, perhaps
with some eye on the anticipated triple-point low in E CO, then it
is possible to see strong to damaging wind gusts behind the expected
line of storms possibly as high as 70 mph.

What is certain is that there will be plenty of deep layer moisture
with precipitable waters 1.5 - 2.0 inches across the region and with
freezing levels up around 16 kft and H85 dewpoints around +16-17C
there are certainly indications of an environment supportive of
precipitation efficiency with any storms that develop. But the push
of additional energy through the N Pacific jet should make the line
progressive across our region such that flooding is not so much a
concern. Can`t rule out an isolated impact if it happens to rain
well enough in the right spot. Expect someone is going to come out
with over an inch of precipitation when all is said and done.

Right now expecting the line of storms to be out of the area as late
as midnight behind which NW winds prevail and conditions clear. As
we clear out and winds become light we should be able to bottom out
to lows around the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Not much change to overall forecast thinking. A wash, rinse, repeat
pattern. The maintenance of the monsoonal high over the 4-corners
region will invoke upslope flow across our area towards the front
range of the Rockies. With any shortwave energy riding along the
N-periphery of the monsoonal high, diving cyclonically E/SE across
the region which will likely seen a maintenance of heat and humidity
with the S flow, we should see the development of thunderstorms
that could pose potential threats of wind, hail and locally heavy
rain. But confidence with regards to specifics remain low at this
time. So, overall, on and off afternoon into evening thunderstorm
chances with highs around 90 and lows around 60 with breezy S winds
prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports tonight through
around 6-8am tomorrow morning. After that time frame, conditions
drop to MVFR at both area airports. Conditions will improve to
VFR tomorrow evening. Gusty winds 20-30mph will be in the
forecast throughout the forecast period. Additionally, showers
and storms are forecast tomorrow afternoon into the evening
hours, which is represented in the forecast, especially at MCK.
MSW


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Williams