669
FXUS63 KGLD 041915
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds will create hazardous travel conditions
  this afternoon, especially for high profile vehicles on west-
  to-east routes, such as I-70, where cross winds will be
  strongest. Localized reductions in visibility associated with
  blowing dust may exacerbate travel difficulties.

- Strong southerly winds could result in fire growth this
  afternoon, should any fires develop. Outdoor burning is not
  advised.

- Thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along and ahead of an
  approaching cold front in northeast Colorado late this
  afternoon and evening. A few severe storms capable of
  producing wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible, mainly
  between ~4-9 pm MDT.

- 20-30% chance of storms Sunday afternoon along and east of a
  Hill City to Gove line; if storms develop severe weather is
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Winds are strengthening on schedule as a low pressure system
over northeast Colorado deepens strengthening the low level wind
fields. Wind gusts around 55 mph are most likely through the
afternoon hours but would not be surprised if an isolated
instance or two of 60 mph winds occurs somewhere in the forecast
area. Some blowing dust is already occurring across the area
mainly affecting fields and country roads. Expectations with the
dust thus far are on par with reduction in visibilities staying
confined to or near dust source regions. The dust is continuing
to filter into the atmosphere due to lack of capping across the
area due to high mixing heights and high 2-2.5km lapse rates.
Localized brownout conditions still can`t be completely ruled
out near source regions. Some fire weather conditions/spread
still remains a concern especially with the winds this
afternoon. Forecasted dew points are fairly aggressive and below
most models as this is a typical set up for drier air aloft to
mix down to the surface. Even with the forecast being on the
drier side and warmer side of temperatures it was still a
struggle to get humidity values down to 15% let alone for 3+
hours. Fuel partners did relay that fuels are still marginally
cured across most of the area and despite the strong winds,
humidity not falling into the 15% RH criteria more than likely
was still not enough to warrant Red Flag Issuance. As a result a
Special Fire Weather Statement via SPS was issued for the
majority of the forecast area.

The next concern will be showers and storms developing across
eastern Colorado around 22Z. Dry lightning may be a concern with
this activity  as well with PWATS around 0.75 and fast storm
motions. CAPE in general however is weak which does make me question
the amount of lightning that will be present. Severe weather
may be possible as well with damaging winds of 65-70 mph the
most likely severe hazard due to the wind field increasing as
the 850mb jet increases just ahead of the cold front. The next
hazard would be the potential for blowing dust possibly in the
form of a haboob especially with outflows from storms.
Confidence has increased slightly in this as the biggest change
from the past 24 hours is that guidance is showing more of a
pressure rise just behind the wind shift of 3-5mb over 3 hours
with the NAM being the outlier at around 8mb over 3 hours. Large
hail can`t be completely ruled out either due to the wind shear
in place but it would more than likely take a longer lived and
stronger updraft to keep keeping particles aloft longer to
support hail growth. Freezing levels are still forecast around
12000-15000 feet which is a little low so its not completely
out of the realm of possibility. Shower and storm chances look
to gradually wane through the evening and further east
convection pushes as drier air begins to filter in behind the
front. Winds will also gradually wane as well behind the front
as we lose the effects from the pressure rises.

Troughing continues through the day Sunday with breezy winds
continuing behind in wake of the front but not nearly as windy as
today with winds gusting up to 25 mph from the north. The front from
today may stall out across southeastern portions of the area, which
if it does then some severe weather may occur along and east of
roughly a Hill City to Gove line with large hail and damaging winds
the main threat. Current thinking is that the front will set up just
south and east of the forecast area. Confidence in severe weather
occurring is around 10% at this time. If severe weather were to
occur the threat would be from around 4pm CT to 6pm CT before moving
out. Overnight Sunday a stronger surge of cold air advection is
forecast to occur which is forecast to increase winds a bit more
than what occurred in the afternoon with gusts around 30-35
mph. Additional showers and storms may develop with this front
as well overnight; severe weather looks unlikely to occur with
that activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The extended period starts with much cooler temperatures in
wake of the stronger cold front from Sunday night. High
temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area Monday, but if cloud cover can remain
thick enough then high temperatures may struggle to even make it
to the 50s in spots. A surface high is forecast to push into
the area from the north Monday night and into Tuesday morning
which would lead to lighter winds and if clouds can clear out
perhaps some frost concerns may creep into the area as well.
Dependent on how quickly the front moves as well additional
rain chances may ensue Monday night into Tuesday morning as
well.


Through the remainder of the week guidance has started trending
towards some ridging over the southern Plains as another system
begins to develop across the western CONUS. If this trend does
continue we could see another warm up towards middle portions of
the week along with another uptick in winds as well. Current
forecast has humidity values falling into the low 20s, if the
speeds of the some low level jets can sync up then anther risk
of some fire weather conditions may become realized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1051 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Wind is the main story for the day as winds gust 35-45 knots
across the area impacting each terminal. Blowing dust is a
concern as well so have added in tempo for GLD based on current
observations and webcams showing some dust. Winds will continue
into the evening with LLWS becoming a concern just ahead of a
front with showers and storms along the front. The showers and
storms have the potential to be severe as well with wind gusts
of 50 knots or higher and potential for another threat of
blowing dust. Confidence is higher for severe winds and dust for
GLD than MCK. Winds will then shift to the north behind the
front and gradually wane throughout the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 740 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Gusty to strong southerly winds are forecast to be in place across
the area today with wind gusts around 50-55 mph. High mixing heights
are in place which leads me to believe that some drier air than what
guidance shows will mix down to the surface resulting in humidity
values in the mid to upper teens. Current forecast is on the higher
end of temperatures and lower end of dew points and still struggling
to get widespread humidity values falling below criteria. Per fuel
partners fuels remain marginal and given the overall aggressive
nature of current forecast and still struggling to get widespread
humidity values to criteria let alone three hours will forego a Red
Flag Warning. If fuels were fully cured a Red Flag Warning would more
than likely be in effect given the wind. Showers ands storms are forecast
to develop along a cold front which may support some dry
lightning potential but confidence in lighting coverage is a bit
lower due to meager amounts of elevated CAPE in place. These
storms may also be capable of wind gusts around 65 mph along
with the potential for outflows resulting in blowing dust (wall
of dust possible but less than 5% chance of occurring.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg