244
FXUS63 KGLD 292342
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
442 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds will steadily decline this afternoon,
  becoming light/variable this evening.

- Below normal temperatures expected through early next week,
  coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the
  freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits
  with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday night through
  mid-day Monday. Light winds, minimal impact(s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Overview: An upper level wave in British Columbia (today) will
dig SSE through the Pacific Northwest (tonight), Intermountain
West (Sun) and 4-Corners (Sun night) then progress ESE-E across
the Southern Plains (Mon). In the lower levels, 1035-1040 mb
Arctic high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies (today)
will slowly shift ESE-SE across the Dakotas and Central Plains
(tonight-Sun) then E across the Central MS River Valley (Mon).

Tonight: Strong northerly low-level flow in the wake of an
Arctic cold frontal passage this morning will weaken from west
to east this afternoon. Breezy N winds will rapidly diminish
after sunset. Mostly clear skies, light winds and a newly
deposited Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures
-8 to -11C) will foster strong radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows in the single digits.

Sunday: With Arctic high pressure situated over the Dakotas and
Central Plains.. the Arctic airmass in place over the Tri-
State area will persist, unmodified. This.. along with
increasing upper level cloud cover / dense high overcast
downstream of the upper wave digging SSE through the
Intermountain West will foster well below average highs in the
mid-upper 20s.

Sunday night-Monday: Expect slightly warmer, albeit still well-
below normal temperatures. Guidance continues to indicate a
potential for light precipitation (snow) over the region late
Sunday night through mid-day Monday.. as the aforementioned
upper wave progresses E-ESE from the 4-Corners to the Southern
Plains. 12Z 11/29 operational guidance continues to suggest that
precipitation coverage, location and amounts will be rather
sensitive to the precise track/evolution of the upper wave.
Despite inconsistency w/regard to specifics.. guidance has been,
and continues to be, in good agreement with regard to the
broader/bigger picture -- i.e. a progressive system with
relatively low precipitation amounts (light snow accum) in a
synoptic setup/pattern that strongly favors light winds. In
other words.. minimal impact(s).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Long range guidance suggests a predominantly dry pattern
(little potential for precipitation) characterized by a modest
warming trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region /
drains downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return
flow pattern ensues.. followed by a cooling trend assoc/w
another cold frontal passage mid-week.. followed by a modest
warming trend late-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the period. Northerly to NNW Winds are expected to
decrease to ~5 kts by 06Z as they become more northwesterly.
During the overnight to ~15Z, winds over KGLD will be light and
variable as they shift from the south to the southeast before
increasing in the afternoon to 10-15kts. KMCK should become
southeasterly around 18Z remaining around 5-10 kts through the
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KMK