425
FXUS63 KGLD 050431
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Saturday for Yuma and Dundy
  counties, with the Fire Weather Watch remaining for Hitchcock,
  Red Willow, Cheyenne [KS], Rawlins, Kit Carson, and Sherman
  counties. Increased fire danger is forecast for most of the
  area.

- Cool down Sunday before warm conditions return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the remainder of today and into the overnight hours, clear skies
remain forecast with dry air over the area. Winds are forecast to
remain around 10 to 15 mph with pressure beginning to fall as the
next system begins developing along the higher terrain and pushing
into the area. Lows tonight should remain in the 40`s and 50`s with
dewpoints in the 40`s and 10-15 mph winds keeping the low levels
mixed.

Tomorrow, an upper trough is forecast to slide east along the
central part of the US/Canada border. This will develop the main
system a bit further north and push it trough. The Tri-State area,
will see lower pressure and a front move into the area, but likely
stall out as the upper feature wraps north a bit. The current
forecast has it stalling out over Northwest Kansas around the noon
hour. This is forecast to allow warmer air to still be pulled into
the area with highs forecast to be in the 80`s and 90`s. It`ll also
cut the winds for a majority of the area, with the stronger winds
present ahead and behind the feature. The current track keeps the
winds low for a majority of the area, with the stronger gusts to
around 30 mph near the Tri-State border area. With the already
dry/warm air in place, this will allow Yuma and Dundy counties to
experience critical fire weather conditions for a few hours so a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The rest of the nearby counties remain
in a watch as any shift south will allow them to reach 3 or more
hours of critical conditions. Adding to the complexity, a surge of
wind gusts to 30 mph is forecast across the area as the front/low
push off to the south and east during the late afternoon and evening
hours. This currently looks to be short lived with only a 15% chance
of it lasting 3 hours, but it`ll need to be watched as additions to
the RFW may be needed. No precipitation is expected with this system
with the dry air in place.

Saturday night is forecast to see clear skies and winds lighten as
the system moves away from the area. Lows are forecast to drop into
the upper 30`s and 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Sunday is forecast to have upper ridging begin to move back into the
area with slightly higher surface pressure. Temperatures are
forecast to warm into the 70`s with sunny skies. There is a low
chance for critical fire conditions in Eastern Colorado if the upper
features can shift east quickly and increase the height gradient.
Looks to be about a 10% chance.

The rest of the week is forecast to have a broad ridge over much of
the Western and Central CONUS, which will allow the area to have
above average temperatures again, along with clear skies and
relatively light winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with clear skies. LLWS has been on and off for the past 2
hours, but should become more steady as the jet is forecast to
strengthen as the night goes on. A few hours after sunrise, the
jet should cease, and a system should push through the area,
shifting winds to the west, and then north. Wind gusts could be
around 20-25 kts at times. Winds are then forecast to lighten
around 00Z, with a much lower chance at LLWS with winds forecast
to be around 15 kts through the lowest few hundred feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Record/near record high temperatures are forecast for the
following locations Saturday, October 5...

Goodland.....95 degrees set back in 1947
Burlington...93 degrees set back in 2007
Colby........96 degrees set back in 1900
Tribune......93 degrees set back in 1947
Yuma........ 91 degrees set back in 1963
McCook.......97 degrees set back in 2007



Monthly record high temperatures could be set at the following
locations Saturday October 5...

Goodland.....96 degrees set on 10/17/1926
Burlington...93 degrees set on 10/09/2020 and previous years
Tribune......95 degrees set on 10/06/2007 and previous years
Yuma........ 94 degrees set on 10/02/1963
McCook.......98 degrees set on 10/09/1928
Colby........97 degrees set on 10/01/2000

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday through
     Saturday evening for KSZ001-002-013.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ252.
     Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for COZ253.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NEZ079.
     Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...99/Trigg