396
FXUS63 KGLD 281645
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may develop over portions of the area this evening,
  after sunset.

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
  cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, strongest (30-40
  G 55 mph) between sunrise and noon.

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

For today, a seasonable day is forecast as northwesterly flow
aloft becomes more zonal ahead of an upper trough moving through
the Northern Rockies. Within this flow, mid and high level
moisture is forecast to continue streaming over the area and
allow for mostly cloud skies. Closer to the surface, a low is
forecast to take shape and deepen along the Front Range. This
should strengthen the winds a bit in the area and bring in some
lower level moisture this morning. The current forecast doesn`t
have fog forming with this, but it may add some low level clouds
to the already mostly cloudy skies. As the day progresses, the
surface low should begin to shift east into the area. This
should push the lower level moisture and stronger winds east.
For locales along the Colorado border, temperatures should near
the low to mid 50s with winds weakening late in the day. For the
rest of the area, cooler temperatures around 50 are forecast
with even cooler temperatures possible if the low level cloud
cover does form. Winds should be around 15-20 mph with gusts to
30 mph.

Tonight, the upper trough axis is forecast to swing through the
area while pushing the surface low just south and east of the
area. It is a bit of a battle between how fast the low gets
south (putting the area on the wrap around side of the low) and
how fast it goes east (moving the dry slot into the area). The
slower the low, the more moisture that will wrap in and allows
for rain, fog, and snow. The faster the low, the more the dry
slot moves in and ends precipitation chances. The forecast is
currently similar to ensemble means, with a little bit of rain
and fog ahead of a cold front that then briefly becomes snow.
The overall accumulations would be low for each, below a tenth
of liquid and below an inch of snow. That being said, the
alternate scenario favored is a slower progression. While not
impactful or that different, it would increase the max liquid to
around 0.15" and the snow to two inches. The main concern for
impacts is the possibility of dense fog and maybe some light
icing. The fog potential is higher if the center of the low
moves through the area before dipping south. With that, we would
then have better moisture advection and a moisture convergence
point moving through. As for the icing, there could be a small
window along and north of a line from Benkelman, NE to Hill
City, KS if not enough moisture advects in. Surface dewpoints
would then be closer to freezing and temperatures may be able to
hit freezing from weak cold air advection before the front
barrels through. With this, freezing rain or sleet may briefly
occur. While the ground is likely too warm for widespread
impacts, it could lead to problems with elevated surfaces. Even
if icing does occur, accumulations likely wouldn`t exceed a
hundredth or two with the limited time window and aforementioned
warm ground.

Saturday is forecast to be somewhat similar to last Tuesday. An
early cold front passage is forecast to allow winds to increase
during the morning hours with pressure rises of 6-8mb in the 3
hours. This would allow speeds to climb between 25 and 35 mph.
Meanwhile, winds just above the surface are forecast to be in
the 40- 50 kts range as the trough axis slides east of the area
and puts us under a stronger height gradient. The saving grace
is that the forecast calls for the upper trough to broaden,
lowering the chance for winds to exceed 50 kts in this layer.
Even if the winds are stronger in this layer, the early frontal
passage and cold air advection should limit how much the winds
can be mixed down. So, similar to Tuesday, expect wind gusts
generally around 40-55 mph with a few gusts to 60 mph. The
strongest winds are again forecast to occur during the morning
hours. Any precipitation and fog should end during the morning
as drier air moves in behind the cold front. Temperatures are
forecast to stay in the 20s and low 30s with the strong cold air
advection behind the front.

Saturday night, the area is forecast to be back under northwest
flow aloft. While the lower and mid level moisture should have
been pulled off to the east, high level cloud cover is forecast
to move over with moisture moving through the upper flow.
However, that may not be enough to keep the are from seeing lows
in the single digits and low teens from the colder/drier air
mass that moved in at the surface. At least winds should be
lower around 10 mph or less as the system moving away and the
inversion sets up. Still the wind may be just enough for some
negative single digit wind chills.

Sunday, we are forecast to have a similar upper pattern to
Friday as another upper trough moves through the Northern
Rockies. The main difference with this trough is that it is
forecast to be a bit further west, with ensembles suggesting it
could shift even further west. The more west it shifts, the
lesser the impact to the area. Irregardless of which solution
pans out, more mid and high cloud cover is forecast to move over
the area. Combined with broad troughing across the Unites
States, Sunday is forecast to cold with temperatures in the 20s.
Winds are forecast to be around 10 mph or less for locales
along and east of Highway 25, while the western half of the area
closer to the low sees winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 40
mph.

Sunday night, deterministic guidance is fairly unified on the
trough axis swinging through the area and into the Plains.
However, ensemble guidance suggests that the main trough axis
may stay closer to the West Coast. With this discrepancy, the
forecast currently follows the deterministic guidance and brings
a chance for snow through the night as the axis swings through
the area. Unlike Saturday`s event, the surface low is likely too
far to help provide extra lift so most of the lift will be due
to the trough axis. With the cold temperatures SLRs are forecast
to be higher around 15-20, which could help the area see more
widespread one to three inches. This is in spite of lesser
overall moisture content in the air column. If the trough does
stay west, then the area may see no snow at all or flurries with
little forcing to work with.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Upper trough axis will be moving through Monday morning to
start the period, with additional light snow accumulations of
less than 1 inch expected. Should be clearing out Monday
afternoon as the trough moves east with high temperatures in the
30s. Lows Monday night will be in the teens with a light west
wind mitigating radiational cooling potential. Will be between
systems on Tuesday with temperatures recovering to the 40s for
highs. Another progressive open wave moves through Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Ensembles show light snow confined
mostly to Colorado, less than 1 inch, though can`t completely
discount a stray flake further east as the upper trough axis
swings through Wednesday morning. Temperatures cool slightly
behind that system with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and lows Wednesday night around 20. May see yet
another shortwave trough on Thursday, but snow potential looks
even less likely than previous system. Temperatures remain
coolish with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 942 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

GLD: Ongoing IFR ceilings (as of 16Z) are expected to lift to
MVFR during the late morning to early afternoon. While further
improvement to VFR is possible for a short period late this
afternoon, conditions will rapidly deteriorate to LIFR or VLIFR
around, or shortly after, sunset (~00Z) and persist overnight..
until a strong cold frontal passage occurs shortly before
sunrise (~10-12Z Sat). Rapid improvement to MVFR is expected
after the frontal passage, followed by further improvement to
VFR several hours later.. near the end of the 18Z TAF period. S
to SSE winds at 10-15 knots will weaken and become variable
around sunset and remain light overnight.. as a broad low
pressure system in CO tracks eastward over western KS. Winds
will abruptly shift to the NNW-N and increase to 25-35 knots
(sustained) with gusts to 45 knots in assoc/w an Arctic cold
frontal passage shortly before sunrise (~10-12Z Sat). Strong
northerly winds will persist through the remainder of the
morning / 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Guidance suggests that borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings
(3000-3500 ft AGL at 16Z) will gradually lower to ~2000 ft AGL
this afternoon. Conditions will further deteriorate to LIFR or
VLIFR after sunset (00-03Z Sat) and persist overnight.. until a
strong cold frontal passage occurs around, or shortly before,
sunrise (~11-13Z Sat). Rapid improvement to MVFR is expected
after the frontal passage, followed by further improvement to
VFR several hours later.. near the end of the 18Z TAF period. SE
to ESE winds at 13-18 knots will gradually back to the E and
decrease to 7-12 knots late this aft-eve.. as a broad low
pressure system in CO tracks eastward over western KS. Winds
will abruptly shift to the NNW-N and increase to 25-35 knots
(sustained) with gusts ~40-45 knots in assoc/w an Arctic cold
frontal passage around, or shortly before, sunrise (~11-13Z
Sat). Strong northerly winds will persist through the remainder
of the morning / 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent