548
FXUS63 KGLD 100516
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
  at least with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Tonight, much like the last few days, storms will fire up to our
west around 21-22z. These storms will attempt to move through
the area, but short range models are generally in agreement that
these storms will weaken as they move eastward due to the lack
of shear today. The main threats with these storms will be
large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early
evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that
area.

Later in the evening, a cluster of storms is expected to
graze our area as it moves across our northeasternmost counties.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing and generally
whether theses storms will influence our area or slide a little
further east, but generally we expect our easternmost locations
to see the potential for severe weather late tonight. Generally,
the main threats associated with these storms will be damaging
winds (60+mph). For this reason, we are outlooked in a Marginal
Risk for Severe Weather with the Slight Risk area just to our
east and north. The timing for these later storms will be
generally around or after 00z and should move through our area
by around 4z timeframe. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving through
the area, enhancing rain and storm chances. Conditions tomorrow
look favorable for severe weather as this system moves through
from west to east starting around 21-22z and progressing
eastward through the evening hours. Generally, the biggest
limiting factor right now is shear as it is a big weaker than
expected. And instability is marginal, but adequate. As this
system moves through, the main threats will be severe damaging
winds 60-75mph and a lesser threat of hail is forecast. We are
outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather to reflect these
conditions. This system will be fairly progressive, so any
flash flooding concerns should be quite localized.

Friday through the weekend, weak zonal flow and a potential weak
shortwave could be moving through the area, enhancing rain
chances. Right now, there is a lot of model uncertainty in the
timing of the rain or any severity. Friday, at least, the
general consensus is for strong to severe storms to fire up in
eastern CO and progress through our area in the afternoon and
evening hours. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe
Weather Friday mainly for the damaging wind concern. Beyond
Friday, the general pattern remains quite a bit uncertain, more
than usual. But generally expect daily potential for strong to
severe storms to be moving through the area this weekend. The
main threats with these storms would be damaging winds
(50-60mph) and large hail. MSW

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the
period. That being said, showers and storms will be possible
after 15Z. Showers are mostly forecast between 15-00Z with a few
storms mixed in. These showers and storms would likely be
scattered and not persistent. There is a small chance that some
of the early storms could produce hail and wind gusts up to 70
mph. There is greater concern for a line moving in from the west
between 00-06Z, as this line may be able to better produce gusts
above 50 kts. A caveat with the showers and storms is that the
messy nature that is forecast could cause them to dissipate and
just be nuisance sprinkles. The other conditions of note is
that the Low Level Jet has developed this evening. Be alert for
speeds increasing to around 40-45 kts between 200-600ft.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...KAK