314
FXUS63 KGLD 291703
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1003 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds will steadily decline this afternoon,
  becoming light/variable this evening.

- Below normal temperatures expected through early next week,
  coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the
  freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits
  with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

For the early morning hours, rain and snow showers are forecast
to push through the area as a surface low drifts south and east
of the area. There have been a few instances of freezing rain
or sleet mixing in, but thankfully they have been brief. The
forecast remains on track with generally low accumulations of
snow and rain. The front also remains on track to push into the
Tri-State border area around 3am and be through most if not all
of the area by sunrise.

For the morning hours, winds are forecast to strengthen with
6-8mb pressure rises in 3 hours behind the front. Winds around
25-35 mph with gusts to 45-55 mph remain expected across most of
the area. There could still be a couple of gusts to 60 mph, but
the broadening of the upper wave is forecast to hinder the flow
around 850-700mb from consistently reaching 50 kts. Even if it
does, mixing will be fairly hampered by the cold air pouring
into the area behind the front. With the cold air moving in,
temperatures are unlikely to warm and will likely stay within a
few degrees of what they are around sunrise. The forecast is for
temperatures to be in the mid to upper 20s through the day with
slowly clearing skies from west to east as the system pushes
east. That being said, some high level clouds are forecast to
return late in the day.

Tonight is forecast to be one of the colder nights we`ve had so
far with the colder air mass squarely into the area. Winds
lightening to around 5-10 mph should allow most of the area to
cool to near dewpoint in the single digits and lower teens. That
being said, the high level cloud cover may provide just enough
insulation for low to mid teens instead.

Sunday, another upper trough is forecast to dig south through
the Rockies. This one however is forecast to be more west of the
area then the prior system, developing the low pressure further
west and south of the area. This should keep the pressure
gradient and winds weak for most of the area. Those along the
Colorado border will likely still be close enough to have winds
around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Otherwise, temperatures
and conditions shouldn`t change much as the broad troughing
keeps temperatures steady and allows more high level moisture to
move over and keep skies mostly cloudy.

Sunday night and into Monday, the upper trough is forecast to
begin swinging east towards the area and the Plains. This is
forecast to bring another shot of moisture through the area
along with the forcing from the trough. The question is will the
area also see some lift from the surface low, or will it be too
far from the area? The current forecast has around half an inch
to an inch of fluffy snow falling in the area with another inch
or two possible if we get the early lift. Thankfully, the upper
wave and surface low are forecast to be too broad and keep
winds around 15 mph or less which makes snowfall amounts the
only concern. That being said, there is only a 15% chance that
snow totals reach or exceed 3 inches anywhere in the area. The
later part of Monday and into the night is forecast to see the
upper trough push east of the area and end precipitation
chances. Skies are forecast to clear short of maybe some more
high clouds as the area remains under northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures should fall again into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Zonal flow to start the period on Tuesday will give way to a
broad trough which digs into the Rockies Tuesday night, remains
somewhat stationary Wednesday and Thursday, then lifts out on
Friday with a ridge building in from the west. Ensembles showing
little more than a few flurries or light snow (less than a half
inch) with the upper trough on Wednesday, otherwise the period
is dry. Do not see any wind associated with this system and
afternoon relative humidity minimums remain well above critical
levels. So what is left is mainly a temperature forecast. Will
begin the period somewhat mild with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s Tuesday, cooling off slightly to the upper 30s on
Wednesday, then mid 40s on Thursday and around 50 by Friday with
the building ridge. Low temperatures will be in the teens and
20s, coldest Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

GLD: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
will abate late this morning. VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40 KT) northerly winds this
morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT during the early afternoon
and ~20-30 KT by late afternoon. Winds will further weaken at
sunset and become light/variable this evening. Winds will remain
light/variable overnight. Winds will shift to the SE and
modestly increase to 10-15 KT late Sunday morning.. near the end
of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
remain possible through early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40
KT) northerly winds this morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT
during the early afternoon and ~20-30 KT during the late
afternoon. Winds will further weaken at sunset and become
light/variable this evening. Light/variable winds will prevail
through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent