029
FXUS63 KGLD 140708
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
108 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is possible a few hours on either side of
  sunrise this morning.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Wednesday could see the return
  of strong winds with gusts above 50 mph possible.

- Potential for first frost or even freezes next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

No significant change to prior forecast reasoning/expectations
through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Satellite observations to continue to show moisture moving
across the region from the southwest on the leading edge of the
upper trough. This should keep the area under mostly cloudy
skies for the remainder of the day. With the colder air mass and
cloud cover, temperatures should peak in the 60s this
afternoon. A few showers may form and move through during the
afternoon, favoring locales in the south where some low level
moisture could move in and saturate the air enough for precip to
make it to the ground.

This evening and into tonight, persistent low level flow from
the south/southeast is forecast to help saturate the lower
levels. With the low level saturating and the
southeasterly/upslope flow, fog should form and may be dense.
Once more mid-level moisture surges in after midnight, more
showers should develop which could interrupt the fog. This is
why the forecast currently calls for patchy fog. The rain itself
looks to be driven by diffluence in the higher levels,
saturated air, and upglide as seen in isentropic analysis. With
this, not currently expecting storms or heavy rain. Currently
expecting around a trace to a quarter of an inch across most of
the area, with the highest amounts favoring southern and eastern
locales that should saturate first. Lows tonight are forecast
to be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Tomorrow, showers, drizzle and fog may continue through much of
the day as the upper trough is forecast to be either stationary
or shift slightly east. Along with that, the ridge in the south
is forecast to amplify a bit, keeping the moisture flow likely
over the area. Should this hold, a wet and cool day with
temperatures in the 60s is forecast for most of the area. If the
upper trough shifts a bit more to the east or if dry air can be
ingested upstream, then the are could clear from west to east
during the late morning and afternoon hours. In this case,
precip would end quickly and temperatures would warm into the
70s. Winds in either scenario should be from the south at 10 to
25 mph, higher in Eastern Colorado which would be closer to the
next surface low.

Tomorrow night, there could be pockets of fog, but drier air is
forecast to advect in near the surface overnight. Cloud cover
should linger with the higher level moisture while winds remain
roughly the same as they were during the day. Lows are forecast
to drop down into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A potentially active extended period may be in store for the
forecast area. Very good agreement on large scale troughing
continues to be seen with guidance. As the trough moves towards
the area Wednesday our 850mb and 700mb wind fields will steadily
increase. GFS as usual remains the strongest with the 700mb jet
but interestingly enough the 12Z run of the NAM shows some
pockets of around 50 knot winds in the same layer. Would not be
overly surprised if some localized wind gusts of around 60 mph
may occur as well across eastern Colorado with mixing heights
4000-6000 feet AGL but currently am thinking that winds of that
magnitude should be few and far between with the overall
consensus wind gusts remaining 45- 55 mph from the south.

Some blowing dust potential may be on the table as well with
current thinking the relative worst conditions may lie along and
west of the Kansas/Colorado line. A stout difference of mixing
heights of around 3000 feet is seen from far western portions of
our eastern Colorado counties towards the state line. Where
mixing heights are highest GFS and NAM both show 2-2.5 lapse
rates of 5-7 c/km mainly west of Highway 385. Overall would like
to see winds a little bit stronger for dust concerns but
looking at CoAgMet soil moisture data across the area is around
0.12-0.19 volumetric water content which is near the lower end
of the spectrum. This area is also forecast to miss out on most
if not all of the upcoming rainfall over the next 36 hours or
so. With all of this said will include patchy dust wording into
the forecast for this area. Dust potential further to the east
is a bit more uncertain since winds are forecast to be a bit
less and the upcoming rainfall may help to saturate the top
layer of blowable soil.

Gusty to strong winds are forecast to continue into Thursday
with the strongest of the jet forecast to move further to the
east. Main concern for Thursday will be developing showers and
storms across western portions of the area. Strong synoptic lift
is forecast to be present as well very strong jets in place
from 700mb all the way to the 250mb level. This along with being
tin the right entrance region of these jets also further
increases my confidence in precipitation occurring. A 700mb
frontogenesis boundary is also forecast to be set up across the
area as well, although the exact location of this is still being
resolved. Weak instability around 500 j/kg is seen along with
meager mid level lapse rates. With the strong jets in place do
have concerns of rainfall bringing down some of these winds to
the surface but the meager lapse rates may lead to some
mitigation of this. Am noticing however as well that the 12Z GFS
is showing 3-7mb pressure rises over 3 hours from 21-03Z which
may aid in the mixing process as well. Would like to see how
this trends over the next few days before furthering concerns
with this.

Friday and through the weekend is forecast to be a bit more
tranquil as the system from the previous days moves off to the
northeast. A reinforcing bout of cold air is however forecast to
move through during the weekend. An associated surface high is
forecast to follow this front as well bringing in drier dew
points and light winds. All of this combined may lead to the
first frosts or even freezes for the area with the most likely
areas being eastern Colorado at this time. Confidence in at
least frost across eastern Colorado is around 60-70% with
confidence in a light freeze around 30-40% and hard freeze
around 10% at this time. Those with agricultural, livestock or
even those with garden hoses still connected to home water
spigots will want to keep up with the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

GLD: Expect deteriorating conditions this morning. IFR, perhaps
LIFR, conditions (largely assoc/w low ceilings) are likely to
prevail by sunrise and are likely to persist throughout the
morning. Significant improvement (to MVFR) is not expected until
early-mid afternoon (~19-21Z). VFR conditions will return
during the mid-late afternoon (22-00Z). ESE to SE winds at 7-12
knots will veer to the S by mid-late morning (~15Z). S winds
will strengthen to 20-30 knots during the late morning to early
afternoon and persist through the remainder of the afternoon. S
winds will decrease to 15-20 knots after sunset, by the end of
the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: Expect deteriorating conditions (lowering MVFR ceilings)
this morning.. with IFR conditions likely after sunrise.
Significant improvement (to MVFR) is not expected until early-
mid afternoon (~19-21Z). VFR conditions are likely to return
during the mid-late afternoon (22-00Z). E to ESE winds at 7-12
knots will persist through sunrise. Winds will gradually veer to
the SE-SSE and increase to 10-20 knots during the early
afternoon (~18Z). SSE winds at 10-20 knots are expected to
prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent