764
FXUS63 KGLD 140552
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1052 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the day on Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, slight cool down
  over the weekend.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper ridge continues to be the main feature through Friday.
Temperatures will warm to around 80 on Friday with the ridge
axis centered over the plains and light downsloping surface
winds. Cold front associated with a shortwave trough in the
northern plains moves through the local area overnight Friday.
No precipitation is expected as the dynamics are too far north.
May see a few hours of breezy northwest winds Saturday morning
(15z-18z) as the inversion breaks and taps into some stronger
winds aloft behind the front. Mixed layer wind forecasts show
30-35 kts possible during that time primarily in northwest
Kansas, then diminishing through the afternoon. Temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and lows Saturday night in the upper 30s. Sunday will
see shortwave ridging aloft and increasing southeast winds at
the surface bringing recirculated cool air. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s with mostly sunny skies. Shortwave trough
moves in from the southwest Sunday night. GFS still showing a
secondary cut off low developing over northeast
Colorado/northwest Kansas with scattered rain showers late,
while the ECMWF shows the low cutting off over Wyoming with
lower precipitation chances. Low temperatures will be in the
upper 30s so expecting any precipitation to be rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper disturbance continues to move through Monday morning with
some lingering showers, but with current timing should be
ending in the afternoon. Clouds will be slower to clear with
high temperatures in the 50s and lows Monday night in the upper
20s to lower 30s. Tuesday will see broad southwesterly flow
aloft ahead of the next system organizing in the Desert
Southwest. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the 50s and
lows in the 30s. The system will begin to lift northeast on
Wednesday and approach the central and southern Rockies
Wednesday night. Scattered light showers will develop ahead of
it in the plains with the approach of the trough axis.
Temperatures fall into the 30s Wednesday night but with
increasing clouds think models may be a little too cold and lows
will stay in the mid to upper 30s and phase will be rain.
However, would not be surprised to see some rain/snow mix in
northeast Colorado where wet bulb zero heights will be most
favorable. Still several days out so confidence in details
regarding Wednesday/Thursday system is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions and light (~5-12 knot) WSW to SSW winds will
prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Clear skies
will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover (cirrus
at or above ~20,000 ft AGL) Friday evening.. near the end of
the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1050 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy across portions of the
area on Friday November 14. Record highs and current forecast
highs for the aforementioned dates are listed below (in
Fahrenheit).

Goodland:   75 in 1990... current forecast 81
Burlington: 78 in 2007... current forecast 80
Hill City:  83 in 1999... current forecast 81
McCook:     78 in 1990... current forecast 78

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...Vincent