497
FXUS63 KGLD 100606
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
  through the overnight with locally gusty winds possible.

- Some concerns for fire weather conditions next week as
  temperatures warm to much above normal with a building ridge
  aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow will make its
way through the area overnight and into Sunday morning, with
scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Some gusty
winds will still be possible especially with a cluster of storms
moving across areas south if Interstate 70, but with little to
no instability no severe storms are anticipated. Clouds will
slowly start to clear north to south through the morning and
early afternoon hours and high temperatures may stay slightly
cooler south of I-70 as a result. Any lingering showers should
end by that time as well. Tonight will be mostly clear but with
a return flow/southwesterly winds developing late temperatures
will stay well above freezing.

Fro Monday and Tuesday, an upper ridge will move from southern
California to the Four Corners, resulting in rising heights
across the central plains and weakening the northwest flow. A
shortwave trough moving out of the northern Rockies will be
shunted east into the northern plains and Great Lakes by the
building ridge. While no precipitation is expected, it will
force a cold front through the area Monday night/Tuesday morning
with a wind shift to the north and northeast. Temperatures will
only cool slightly on Tuesday by 5-10 degrees. There is some
concern for fire weather both days as afternoon relative
humidity minimums drop to around 20%. Winds will be breezy out
of the southwest on Monday, then breezy out of the northeast on
Tuesday morning immediately behind the front before diminishing
in the afternoon. Monday seems to be the day where both
parameters could potentially be met, primarily in northeast
Colorado where HREF probabilities of 15% relative humidity are
currently 30-50% but also where winds are lowest and HREF
probabilities for 25 mph gusts are near zero. Further east winds
are higher but probabilities of 15% relative humidity rapidly
drop to less than 20%. So confidence is lacking at this time
that critical conditions will be met (15% relative humidity with
gusts to 25 mph).

Temperatures start the period on Sunday at near to slightly
below normal (60s and 70s), then much above normal on Monday
(mid to upper 80s), and above normal on Tuesday (upper 70s to
middle 80s). Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

***Wednesday - Thursday Afternoon***

Warm temperatures look to continue with ridging moving in overhead
Wednesday. Highs are currently forecast in the mid to upper-80s
Wednesday afternoon, and upper-80s to mid-90s Thursday. Dry
conditions once again seem possible, with RH in the mid-teens to
upper-20s Wednesday, and mid to upper-teens Thursday. Critical fire
weather conditions may once again come into play both days.
Wednesday`s risk appears wind-driven, with forecast guidance
suggesting up to 45 mph gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado.
This is consistent with the mean forecasted wind gusts from the NBM
across this region in the low to mid-40s. However, these values may
be biased toward the high end due to how the NBM assigns wind gusts.
Additionally, this region is forecast to experience the higher end
of the RH range for Wednesday (upper-teens to lower-20s). As such,
fire weather risks Wednesday afternoon are favored to be marginal
across this zone. Forecast guidance for Thursday afternoon suggests
gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible, with NBM guidance giving
at least a 1 in 3 chance for most locations in the CWA to experience
gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria. Still, RH values
according to the LREF have less than a 30% chance to drop into
criteria for the hazard, lowering the risk. Confidence in a Red Flag
Warning being needed is around 5% for both Wednesday and Thursday.

***Thursday Night - Saturday***

Again, forecast guidance is a bit more uncertain by Thursday night
due to unresolved timing of an eastward moving trough from the west.
Ensemble guidance appears to favor a broader, slower-moving wave,
though some deterministic guidance shows this feature as a faster-
moving shortwave system. The faster propagation would promote a cold
front to traverse the forecast area sometime between Thursday night
and Friday morning. This activity may be associated with some light
showers along the boundary, with additional precipitation
opportunities behind the front Friday night and possibly into
Saturday morning. The slower propagation would continue to
support warm and dry conditions, with highs in the mid-80s to
mid-90s, and RH as low as the mid-teens. Fire weather would
continue to be a risk under this scenario until the trough from
the west reaches the forecast region. The slower propagation
appears highly favored at this time, as only 10th percentile and
lower LREF scenarios show indications of the wave reaching the
Nevada-Utah border or further by Friday morning. Confidence in
the slower propagation is around 75-80% at this time, though is
still something to keep an eye on as the pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight hours with a low probability
(less than 20%) of impacting either KGLD or KMCK. Some lower
clouds will move into KGLD this morning with a brief period of
MVFR ceilings possible through early afternoon. KMCK is expected
to remain VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024