222
FXUS63 KGLD 221110
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures continue with moderate heat
  risk.

- Scattered afternoon and evening storms chances this afternoon
  and tonight in Colorado and adjacent counties of Kansas and
  Nebraska with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

- Very little change in the pattern for the rest of the week.
  Hot and humid with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Lingering storms across the south and east will continue to
weaken overnight. Otherwise, expecting a partly cloudy and hot
day across the region with high temperatures in the 90s to near
100. Forecast area remains on the western periphery of a large
upper ridge over the southeastern CONUS. Weak disturbances
rotating around the ridge will result in another round of
scattered storms this afternoon and tonight, mainly in Colorado
this afternoon and west of Highway 25 in Kansas/Nebraska in the
evening hours. Environment will be somewhat less unstable and
moist compared to previous days. Deep layer shear remains weak.
Storm motions in the afternoon will be slow, but with a
noticeable increase after 00z, which should reduce the risk of
flash flooding. There will remain a low risk of damaging wind
gusts with any stronger updraft that can manage to get going,
but they should be very isolated. Overall severe risk today will
be marginal at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Another day with strong to severe thunderstorms is possible this
afternoon and evening as a lee trough remain over the Central
High Plains while shortwaves travel over the upper level ridge.
There are two to three areas where convection could get going
later this afternoon. One is in the northeast along an old
outflow boundary from convection that is moving out of
northcentral KS into NE. This boundary runs from northwest to
southeast through Rawlins Co, KS. The storms along this line
could develop as early as 4-5pm. Another area would be in the
south from Greeley/Wichita counties and then northeast into
Gove county. Probability of storms along this line is lower
given that most models do not develop anything there until
closer to 9pm, but it is possible. The third area will be in CO
as storms come off the Rockies, like previous nights with the
short-wave trough moving into eastern CO. Probabilities will
remain around 30pct for all areas, but highest chances will be
north of I-70 where the shear and instability/PW values will be
slightly better. As instability weakens storms should decrease
during the late evening into the overnight hours.

For Tuesday, am expecting a repeat of what happens this
afternoon and evening. However, the location of the storms will
not be the same as outflow boundaries will likely dictate the
location of any new development Tuesday afternoon into Tue
evening.

Temps will remain above normal tonight through tomorrow night
along with above normal dewpoints. Heat indices will remain
near 100 but don`t think dewpoints will be high enough to push
indies to around 105. Highs in the mid 90s to near 100 are
expected tomorrow with overnight lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
The heat advisory for the eastern counties will continue this
evening until 7 pm. At this time, based on lower dewpoints and
heat indices, not expecting a heat advisory for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The current pattern of heat with daily chances for afternoon-evening
storms is expected to continue through the week. The upper level
ridge is expected to be the dominant pattern for much of the
continental U.S. with the ECMWF and GFS models showing potential for
a cut-off low to swing across the Central and Southern Great Plains
midweek bringing a cold front across the area in the Thursday-
Friday. Most shower/storm activity next week looks to develop over
Colorado and move across the area during the afternoon to evening
hours. The weekend actually looks to be dry but that means that
temps will become much above normal again.

Temperatures for the extended period will remain the big story.
High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 90s
across the area with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible
Thursday and Friday. As we move into the weekend, we could see a
return of the 100s for our eastern counties. Overnight lows
should be in the 60s to lower 70s, with area-wide 60s Wednesday-
Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
have a low probability of impacting either terminal, but brief
gusty winds will accompany any thunderstorm.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...024