262
FXUS63 KGLD 181102
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
502 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation is expected for most of the area at some point
  this weekend. Rain chances begin late this morning and linger
  through early Monday morning. Rain chances and higher rain
  totals favor East-Central Colorado and then lower the further
  east you are. There is a very low chance of a severe storm
  this evening that could produce a wind gust to 65 mph.

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will follow,
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Current satellite observations show the upper trough around the
NV/CA/AZ border area. Satellite also shows clouds and moisture
currently streaming through the area. This setup is still giving us
the chance to have our first measurable rainfall in a long time. A
broad low pressure system and surface front are currently just
northwest of the area, and should be pulled through as the day goes
on. As long as the upper system doesn`t surge too far south, the
surface system should be across the area this afternoon. This will
serve as the focus for storms to develop and linger through the
evening hours. Before that though, there could still be a few
isolated storms in the area as early as the late morning hours with
the moisture streaming in. As long as the dry air doesn`t overtake
too much, the chances for early precip are around 40-50%, favoring
NW Kansas. With the cloud cover and moisture, highs will be a bit
lower in the 70`s while RH should generally stay at 35% or higher.
This will end our threat for critical fire weather conditions, in
spite of strong winds remaining from the south and gusting to 40
mph. Blowing dust should also not be a factor with weaker lapse
rates and slightly weaker winds.

Going more into the evening will again depend on the surface feature
and surface convergence. Most guidance keeps that in Eastern
Colorado, near the Colorado border. This would allow multiple round
of showers and storms to develop in counties along the Colorado
border, which could easily allow for rainfall amounts greater than
half an inch through the night. There is a very low chance for a
storm to produce a severe wind gust to 65 mph due to the strong flow
forecast to be just above the surface. However, the overall severe
risk is very low as instability should be lacking with the cloud
cover in the area today. For the rest of the area, rain totals from
this first round will likely remain low with the upper system still
favored to be a bit further west and south from the Four Corners
region, which is pulling the main system further west and south.
Rain totals may range from a trace to 0.2" unless the initial
frontal convergence is more robust than forecast (since that would
be orientated more to the east).

For tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to cut off into a low and
remain relatively stationary just southwest of the Four Corners.
This would limit our rain chances for the day with the better
forcing southwest of the area. However, ensembles still show some
uncertainty with where the low sits and deepens, so there is still a
chance the area could see more widespread and heavier rainfall
tomorrow. Otherwise, with mid-level and low-level moisture present,
tomorrow should be a mostly overcast day with a few sprinkles or
showers moving through. Highs would be even cooler in the 60`s.
Winds would generally be lighter than the previous few days with a
weaker pressure gradient over the area.

Sunday would then bring the area`s next best chance for some
additional rain as the upper low begins to shift to the northeast.
If it can drag some additional moisture into the area from the south
and not move off to quickly, additional showers and storms should
form and move through late in the day. They`d also be more likely to
form in the eastern half of the area which is forecast to miss out
on much of the initial rain Fri/Sat. Otherwise, cloud cover is
forecast to decrease through the day and allow temperatures to warm
into the 70`s. Winds would be a bit stronger with a surface low
developing off the Front Range and pushing east with the upper low.
Though speeds would likely stay around 20-25 mph with gusts to 40
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Monday: Long range guidance indicates that an upcoming cut-off
low -- anticipated to meander invof the 4-Corners and central
Rockies this weekend -- will rapidly eject ENE toward the Great
Lakes Mon-Mon night as the northern stream branch of the upper
level jet descends from on-high (Canada) to lower latitudes..
over the PAC NW (Sun night), northern Rockies (Mon) and Northern
Plains (Mon night). If this is the case, expect a rapid west-
east clearing trend during the day.

Tuesday-Friday: Long range guidance suggests that a quasi-
zonal pattern.. predominantly characterized by westerly flow
aloft (albeit with broad, low amplitude troughing/ridging)..
will prevail over the CONUS next week. Expect benign weather,
dry conditions and above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 457 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast until around 03Z, then
ceilings are forecast to lower. Moisture is forecast to continue
moving into the area. During the day, the only potential problem
is a small chance for showers and storms around 18-21Z. The
overall chance is around 20%, but precip might form south of the
terminal and move north. This evening, a low pressure system is
forecast to move over the area and provide a greater chance for
precipitation. While the better chances are to the west of the
terminal, there is still a 60% chance for precip this evening.
Additionally, the air column will begin to saturate, and
ceilings lower towards 1000ft.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period for
now. Currently the best moisture and precip chances are forecast
to be west and south of the terminal. While chances are low, it
is worth mentioning that showers and storms are possible around
the 20-00Z time period, and then again late overnight. Both
chances are generally below 20%, so they are not included at
this time since the system favors a westward pull. Towards the
end of the period, enough moisture may move into the area for
ceilings to being lowering.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK