233
FXUS63 KGLD 050536
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1136 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
  into next week; severe weather is possible as well.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Introduced some patchy fog into the forecast across the
northwest. Skies are anticipated to clear along with weakening
winds overnight as a moist air mass in place. Some locally dense
fog can`t be ruled out as well. Some redevelopment of showers
and storms around the Front Range currently however does lower
my confidence some in the clearing of the clouds for the fog
formation to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will prevail in the lee of the
central Rockies.. on the western periphery of an upper level
ridge that extends northeastward from the Southern Plains to the
Central Mississippi River Valley and Upper Midwest. An upper
level (~300 mb) shortwave, located in northeast Colorado at 15
UTC this morning, will track NE-NNE through western Nebraska
(away from the NWS Goodland county warning area) this afternoon
and Dakotas (tonight). In the lower levels, a weak surface to
850 mb trough was present over eastern Colorado at 15 UTC..
mainly southeast Colorado (e.g. La Junta, Lamar, Springfield).
Further north, where low overcast and intermittent light showers
are influencing the evolution of low-level height/wind fields,
a modest meso-high was present.

An atypically moist airmass characterized by surface dewpoints
~65-70F, 850 mb dewpoints ~17-18C, near moist-adiabatic (5.5 to
6.0 C/km) mid-level (700-500 mb) lapse rates and precipitable
water values ~1.50" to 1.75" will prevail over the region today.
Without an elevated mixed layer, expect little in the way of
convective inhibition (cap) this afternoon. Weak, muddled
forcing and the presence of a fairly uniform/homogeneous airmass
(assisted by pervasive stratus).. lend little confidence with
regard to convective development, coverage and evolution in the
Goodland county warning area today-tonight, as one might surmise
from simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent
runs of convection allowing guidance. Weak low-level/mid-level
flow and modest (15-30 knot) effective deep layer shear suggest
that convective organization, if any, would likely be transient
in nature.. and that severe weather potential would likely be
confined to brief/localized wet downbursts. Observational and
environmental trends suggest that convection emanating from /
propagating downstream of the Colorado Front Range (into eastern
CO and adjacent KS border counties) late this afternoon and
evening (~5-10 pm MDT) may pose the greatest risk (relatively
speaking) for damaging winds. People attending outdoor
gatherings for Independence Day are urged to keep an eye on the
sky, and to consider that.. dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Sat-Sun: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the
`big picture` this weekend, i.e. the Tri-State area will remain
situated on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge
(anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico).. in WSW
flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution in
the Goodland county warning area will likely be influenced
(directly or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent
convection on each day. Bottom line.. low confidence in
convective forecast specifics. Guidance does indicate that a
complex upper level low presently offshore the Pacific Northwest
will gradually dig southward along the Pacific Coast late this
weekend, tightening the height gradient (and increasing the
magnitude of WSW flow aloft) over the Desert Southwest,
4-Corners and portions of the central Rockies.. suggesting that
stronger deep layer shear may be present over the region on
Sunday.

Mon-Fri: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will
prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area
will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge.. at
or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies.
Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and
a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in
climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado
Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A cluster of storms moving towards KMCK may lead to some wind
gusts around 40 knots and perhaps some lower visibilities down
into IFR range; KGLD should not see any storm chances tonight.
Am also keeping an eye on some stratus developing overnight and
perhaps some fog; although as of now any fog should remain
northwest of the KGLD terminal and west of KMCK. Winds are
forecast to become northerly around sunrise or shortly after for
each terminal. Another round of storms is possible across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas Saturday afternoon and
through the evening hours. Confidence is to low at this time to
introduce any mention for impacts to terminal due to low
confidence in coverage, upcoming shifts will need to monitor
this situation.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg