791
FXUS63 KGLD 121041
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
341 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and
  are expected bring rain.

- 60 MPH winds and explosive fire growth are possible next
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

This morning, our next system will slowly start impacting us. The
parent 500 mb low pressure system will be off the west coast of Baja
California with a northeastward extending trough axis. This axis
will be what causes any precipitation before Friday midday.
Conditions today will be mild as temperatures will be in the low to
mid 60s.

Looking at 850 mb and 300K surfaces, we have some northwesterly
flow, bringing in some cooler air around 0-12Z tonight. This will
work to increase RH values to around 60-80% across the northwestern
CWA at 300K. The high pressure that`s drawing in this air will also
be drawing in some southerly air, leading to a weak frontal
boundary. This has a 20% chance of scattered rain showers across the
area from 0-12Z. There is a 10% chance of freezing rain in Dundy
county, depending on if surface temperatures drop below freezing.
This round of precipitation has a 10-15% chance of lingering through
the morning Friday, but will largely gone by sunrise. Any locations
that do receive rain and drop below freezing will need to be
cautious for black ice.

For the main system, while the path is still on track to move over
southern Oklahoma, the timing is still varied. The NAM and CMC-NH
have the low pushing 850 mb moisture and 500 mb vorticity into the
CWA around 18-21Z Friday. The GFS waits until around 9-12Z, with
most other models having timing around 0-6Z. This will be the
leading factor of when precipitation moves into the CWA.

Precipitation will be mainly focused on the southern half of the
CWA, along and south of U.S. 24. South of U.S. 24, REFS is showing
an 80%+ probability of greater than 0.15" of rain by Saturday
morning while the NBM has a 35-45% chance of the same. Due to the
wide spread of possibilities, forecaster confidence is sitting
around 40%. North of U.S. 24, the probabilities from REFS and NBM
drop to below 25%, rather quickly.

Some lingering precipitation is expected throughout the day
Saturday, leading to slightly more QPF, but not a lot more. There
are still hints of weak CAPE, which could lead to some embedded
thunderstorms. Precipitation looks to be end by 0Z Sunday as a ridge
builds in from Baja California.

Biggest threat from this precipitation would be overnight freezing,
leading to black ice. Friday night looks to largely remain above
freezing, save for eastern Colorado and maybe Dundy county, where
temperatures look to drop to around 30. Otherwise, the rest of the
CWA will only cool into the mid to upper 30s overnight while
temperatures Friday and Saturday will warm to around 60. Friday may
be 5-10 degrees cooler if we`re experiencing more widespread
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Sunday, the warming trend continues for our region as we are
forecast to be under a weak ridge with a trough developing off the
west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the mid/high 60s with
lows in the 30s. The afternoon will be windy for our Colorado
counties with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Relative humidity (RH)
values are forecast in the high teens/low 20s. Fire weather could be
a concern Sunday if RH values drop further due to the higher
temperatures and downsloping winds.

Monday warms further as we remain under a ridge with highs forecast
in the upper 60s/70s. Winds are not quite as severe, but gusts up to
30 mph are still possible for our Colorado counties. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon as dewpoints begin
trending down indicating further drying conditions for our region.
RH values are forecast in the teens for the western portion of the
county warning area (CWA).

Tuesday is the most concerning for critical fire weather. We are
forecast to be in a strong southwesterly flow with a 250 mb jet
maximum over our area. This will pummel our area with strong
southwesterly/westerly winds causing dry conditions. Wind gusts from
30-40 mph for the eastern half of the CWA and gusts from 40-50+ mph
are possible for the western portion. The NBM is showing 70%
probability of 40+ mph wind gusts. RH values are currently forecast
in the low teens and dewpoints are in the single digits. These will
likely drop further in response to the warm conditions and strong
winds earlier in the week. Forecast Grassland Fire Danger Index
(GFDI) values range from 60-130 for western portion of the CWA, so
any fires that start will have rapid growth and spread out of
control. Widespread Red Flag Warnings may been needed for the area
if conditions pan out.

Blowing dust is also a possibility, but southwesterly flow is
vertically stacked making it less likely. Southwesterly flow is
currently present at 250 mb, 500 mb and 700mb, and 0-2 km lapse
rates are below 4 C/km so dust is not likely to be lofted.

We return to a more mild zonal pattern Wednesday with highs forecast
in the 60s. Fire weather continues to be a concern with RH values
forecast in the teens and wind gusts from 25-35 mph possible for our
Colorado counties. Dewpoints remain in the single digits and could
further dry out with afternoon westerly winds and in response to
Tuesdays event.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. KGLD has a 15-20% chance at some light rain
between 6-12Z tomorrow morning, which will bring in some icing
concerns. Overall, it`s a good day to fly!

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA