932
FXUS63 KGLD 032306
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the
  week. Near record to record high temperatures again possible
  Tuesday.

- Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to develop Thursday and
  Saturday across the area resulting in some potential for
  elevated to critical fire weather potential each day.

- No obvious signals for precipitation for the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Subtle ridging is ongoing across the area today as a surface
cold front moves out of eastern portions of the area. In the
wake of the front slightly above normal temperatures remain
forecasted with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds are
forecast to increase some this afternoon as the nose of surface
trough moves into the area. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are again
forecast for the day. Cloud cover is forecast to increase as the
day goes on as a weak shortwave moves off of the Rockies.

This evening cloud cover is forecast to end around 11p-12am MT as
the trough continues to move into the area. As this happens winds
are forecast to begin shifting from the southeast to the west which
is forecast to warm temperatures slightly. Further across the east
some weak moisture advection is forecast to occur resulting in dew
points rising briefly to the upper 30s to low 40s before the trough
shunts them off to the east. Some patchy fog is possible between
4am and 8am CT across Sheridan, Gove, eastern Logan, Graham and
Norton counties before the winds shift. If the trough moves
through quicker then fog will not occur. At this time not
anticipating dense fog due to lesser values of surface to 1km
mixing ratio difference.

Tuesday is forecast to be another warm day across the area with a
very similar pattern to Sunday. The one caveat to temperatures
is that there is forecast to be more upper level cloud cover as
some upper level moisture moves through the area from southern
Colorado. This may limit the upper end potential of how warm
temperatures may get versus what occurred Sunday with no clouds.
Near record high temperatures still remain on the table as the
area warms into the mid 70s to low 80s. If the cloud cover is
not as thick or widespread then temperatures in the low 80s may
be a bit more widespread. Continuing to watch for some briefly
critical fire weather conditions mainly along and north of
Highway 34 from Yuma to Bartley. Similar to yesterday the wind
is the limiting factor. There is potential that the stronger
winds that are currently favored closer to the I-80 corridor can
shift further south into our area but at this time that
scenario is not looking likely.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning another cold front is
forecast to move through the area again shifting winds to the
north and bringing a period of breezy winds with the front
gusting 20-30 mph. I did trend overnight low temperatures down a
few degrees since last night`s cold front did drop temperatures
a little further than what I was expecting as similar winds and
little to no cloud cover is again forecast with this front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Starting the extended period is essentially a rinse and repeat of
the pattern from the past few days. Wednesday is forecast to be
similar to today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s as
winds again become more east-southeasterly in wake of a
departing surface high from the previous nights cold frontal
passage. Another surface trough is forecast to start nudging
into the area from the northwest leading to a gradual shift of
winds to the west Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning.

Thursday is the day when the rinse and repeat pattern is forecast to
break. The surface trough moves through again leading to strong
downsloping winds as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
low 70s. Winds are however forecast to be breezy from the
northwest around 15-20 mph sustained gusting 25-35 mph. Elevated
to critical fire weather conditions are a possibility as
confidence is a bit higher that winds will be stronger as a
system across the northern Plains has a greater influence on
the region.

Late week and through the weekend a more pronounced northwesterly
flow pattern is forecast to emerge with clipper systems moving
through the northern Plains and into the midwest. Continuing not to
see any clear cut signals for precipitation but overall more
breezy conditions are forecast to evolve during this period
along with being more prone to stronger cold fronts. GEFS
ensemble spread from yesterday is actually a little deeper and
backed up with the axis of the longwave trough which leads me to
believe that some of these cold fronts may be a little stronger
than what is currently being depicted by deterministic guidance
with the exception of the deterministic 12Z GFS. If this
thinking of the more backed up solution of the trough does end
up panning out then winds on Saturday may be stronger than
currently forecasted. Will need to be something to keep an eye
on in upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period, with light surface winds and occasional high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Locally critical to perhaps an hour or two of critical fire weather
conditions are possible across Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock and Red
Willow counties Tuesday. A very similar pattern to Sunday is
forecast to emerge with warm, near record high temperatures
resulting in humidity values in the low to mid teens. The main
issue when it comes to critical fire weather conditions is
again the wind. The stronger jets do look to remain north of the
Goodland forecast area at this time but there is the potential
(10-20%) that they could set up a little further south
increasing the gust threat to around 30 mph. Mixing heights are
currently forecast to be roughly about the same as what they
were Sunday around 4000-4500 feet. Cloud cover in the form of
upper level cirrus appears to be more prevalent than Sunday as
well which may affect temperatures some keeping them a little
lower than currently forecast which would raise humidity values
some. Confidence in 1 hour of critical conditions is around
40-50% and confidence in 3 or more hours to warrant any fire
weather products is around 10-15% right now. 0-3km lapse rates
are also lower as well than Sunday which leads me to believe
that even if a fire were to start it shouldn`t intensify quickly
due to the more stable environment. If a fire were to start be
aware of another cold front moving through Tuesday evening/early
Wednesday morning that would shift the winds to the north from
the west direction currently forecast during the day.

Additional elevated to potentially critical fire weather days
are possible Thursday and Saturday as a potentially windier
pattern may develop.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 410 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Tuesday, November 4th. Record highs and current
forecast highs for the date are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

Goodland: 83 in 2020... current forecast 79
Burlington: 84 in 2020... current forecast 77
McCook: 84 in 2020... current forecast 80
Hill City: 79 in 2020... current forecast 78

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...Trigg