167
FXUS63 KGLD 260556
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1156 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures return for the weekend and into
  early next week with heat indices of 100-105; warmest across
  Graham, Norton, Decatur, Sheridan and Gove.

- Cooler temperatures and thunderstorms will follow, midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the rest of the day, winds will be out of the south at less
than 10 mph with gusts around 15 mph; really easing off as high
pressure builds over the area. Some afternoon thunderstorms are
possible over the CO counties, and while a few isolated storms
could become strong to severe, widespread severe weather is not
expected. The better dynamics for strong to severe storms will
be isolated to the CO front range and will gradually lose steam
as they head east.

The main concern in the short term, and the long term will be
the gradually increasing heat. Temps today will be pleasantly in
the upper 80s and lower 90s but as we get into the weekend
we`re looking for a return to triple digit temperatures. Heat
advisory criteria may be possible come Sunday so if you have
plans outdoors this weekend, keep an eye on those temps!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The long term kicks off with temperatures still in the triple
digits as we start next week. Monday looks to be the hottest
day, though Tuesday doesn`t look much better. The heat lingers
until mid week, when a trough brings back showers and
thunderstorms to the area by Wednesday and breaking the heat
wave. While it`s still too early to say whether or not these
waves will have the potency to bring widespread severe weather
back to the CWA, the increase in Tds and lingering heat will
certainly be enough to generate a decent amount of instability.
Timing and shear values are on the lower confidence side so stay
tuned as we get closer to the middle of the week.

The reintroduction of PoPs to the forecast will help mitigate
the heat back down to a more reasonable level. High temperatures
should fall back into the mid to low 80s after the front moves
through on Wednesday with lows in the 60s. Rain is expected to
stick around in the forecast into next weekend as a
significantly wetter pattern than ones we`ve seen previously
sets up over the Great Plains.

High heat will bring a drop in our daily wind values. As the
front approaches Wednesday, we`ll see those synoptic winds pick
up as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will shift to the
ESE by Wednesday with gusts of 25+ returning to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

GLD: As of 0530Z this evening, a weak low-level flow regime
persists over the region, and.. once again.. decaying convection
and remnant/orphaned outflow were slowly approaching from the
west. Given that LIFR to VLIFR ceilings were observed at the
Goodland terminal between 11-15Z Friday morning.. and that
environmental conditions have changed little during the past 24
hours, persistence would suggest a potential for LIFR ceilings
a few hours on either side of sunrise Saturday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Light (7-12 knot) south winds are expected to increase to 12-17
knots by early afternoon and persist through sunset.

MCK: Environmental conditions have changed little during the
past 24 hours. Persistence would suggest a potential for LIFR
conditions associated with stratus/fog a few hours on either
side of sunrise Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. Light (5-10 knot) SSE-SE winds
are expected to increase to 12-17 knots by early afternoon and
persist through sunset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM...Vaughn
AVIATION...Vincent