323
FXUS63 KGLD 051904
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
104 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and cloudy today, with a few showers in the area. Some
  dense fog is possible tonight.

- Mild weekend forecast with near average temperatures around 80
  and winds below 20 mph.

- Warmer temperatures and a more active pattern are forecast to
  return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the next few hours, the southern CWA will see continuing
rain with another 0.1-0.2 inch of rain possible between 18-6Z.
These showers will slowly drift to the south, likely exiting the
area by 0-6Z. The persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures
in the 60s to upper 50s, with the cooler temperatures where the
rain is continuing. The clouds are forecast to linger through a
good chunk of the night, slowly clearing out, but helping keep
temperatures in the 40s. We are expecting some stratus and
patchy fog to form in the southwestern CWA, there is a 25%
chance of dense fog.

Tomorrow, we`re looking at partly cloudy conditions thanks to an 850
mb high over eastern Kansas funneling some more moisture into the
region. The southerly winds will mix down to the surface and help
get our temperatures into the mid to upper 70s. Around 0Z, there is
a 10-15% chance a 500 mb shortwave trough moves across the area,
forcing some showers or light storms to form. No severe impact are
expected from this low chance of precipitation.

Fog and stratus may return Saturday night. If it does, expect
temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 50s. If we remain mostly
clear, lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

The long-term will see a pattern that we saw a lot of back in July.
A ridge will be set up over the Four Corners and Great Basin region
as a low over the Great Lakes slowly pushes off to the east and
another low moves over the northwestern CONUS. The ridge and
northwesterly flow will dominate the CWA Sunday through Monday
night, potentially into Tuesday. The speed of the northwestern low
will determine when the northwesterly flow will break apart, but
Tuesday is when we can expect to see a change in the weather.

Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge, the low
will slow to a crawl over the northern Rockies and potentially
Fujiwara if the center of the low splits. This looks to happen
Tuesday through the end of the workweek, as what`s left of the
high shifts its axis over the central Great Plains. In the
lower-levels, this will lead to an 850 mb high pressure system
over the mid and southern Mississippi River Valley regions as
weak lows eject off the northern Rockies with the Tri-State area
sandwiched in between the two. This will allow a southerly LLJ
to funnel mid and low-level moisture into the CWA as well as
warmer temperatures. Upper 80s and low 90s are expected to
return no later than Tuesday and remain through the rest of the
week. Low are expected to drop into the mid 50s and 60s
throughout the long-term.

Due to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts, there will be
a nearly daily 20% chance of showers and weak storms across the
area. Currently, no guidance is showing a strong cold front
moving through the area as the upper-level low remains somewhat
stationary. If a stronger low and cold front can eject off the
the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be in place for
severe storms. The NBM does not seem to be reflecting the
precipitation potential well in this setup. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20%; at
least one day (Tues- Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is 65%;
confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday-Friday is 10-15%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Winds will generally remain light and
variable, but KMCK could see a random gust or two up around 15
kts today if the clouds clear out in the mid-afternoon. There is
a 10% chance of some MFVR stratus and visibility to impact KGLD
between 10-13Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA