522
FXUS63 KGLD 052230
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A severe storm is possible this afternoon, mainly north of
  I-70 and east of Highway 83 between 5-9 pm CDT. Large hail
  and locally damaging wind are the primary hazards, should
  storms develop.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend
  and into early next week.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
  well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Through Tonight: A modest SW-to-NE oriented shear axis
(~250-300 mb level) and an accompanying low-level reflection
(SW-to-NE oriented surface to 850 mb trough) will very slowly
progress east across northwest KS and southwest NE this
afternoon, when/where weak low-level convergence may serve as a
focus for scattered convective development during the mid-late
afternoon. Per 19Z surface observations, the aforementioned
surface trough was located along/near a line extending NE-NNE
from Leoti- Oakley-Oberlin. Unimpeded sunshine will further
destabilize the moderately unstable airmass (1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE at 19Z) already in place over northwest KS this
afternoon, especially in ENE portions of the Goodland CWA (Hill
City, Norton, Oberlin) where moisture pooling in vicinity of the
low-level convergence zone will lead to strong destabilization
(3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) at peak heating. 19Z SPC mesoanalysis
data indicates a pristine elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse
rates 8.5-9 C/km) and a significant amount of convective
inhibition (75-150 J/kg MLCIN) over the Goodland CWA.. as
evidenced by clear skies on visible satellite. As of 1930Z,
scattered diurnal Cu has recently developed over northern
portions of Norton County, where surface dewpoints were in the
mid-upper 60`s and the temperature was ~93F. High-res guidance
suggests that a fair amount of convective inhibition (~50-150
J/kg of MLCIN) will persist through peak heating. This appears
to be, in part, a function of persistent low ceilings/stratus in
southwest NE this morning, where diurnal heating was delayed
and temperatures at 1930Z were 10-15F cooler than adjacent KS
border counties. With the above in mind, it appears that weak
forcing and a persistent cap / convective inhibition will act as
a barrier to appreciable convective development this aft-eve.
Current and recent (12-18Z) runs of the HRRR indicate little in
the way of convective development in the Goodland CWA this aft-
eve. Forecast soundings continue to indicate inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles, seasonably strong DCAPE, vertical wind
profiles characterized by weak (~10-15 knot) flow in the lowest
15,000 to 20,000 ft AGL and weak deep-layer shear. A conditional
threat for severe weather will, nevertheless, exist across
portions of the area, mainly north of I-70 and east of Hwy 83
(Norton/Graham) where strong instability would support a
potential for large hail with any deep convection (organized or
not). Further south.. in Greeley, Wichita, Logan and Gove
counties, where extreme DCAPE (~1800 J/kg) is present..
brief/isolated severe wind gusts are possible with any high-
based convection (i.e. storms, showers, virga).

Sat-Sat night: Ample low-level moisture will likely foster
marginal to moderate diurnal destabilization (500-1000 J/kg
mlcape) over portions of the area on Sat, though.. synoptic
subsidence associated with an amplifying upper level ridge over
the Central-Northern Plains will tend to suppress convective
development. While southeasterly low-level flow could assist in
the development of diurnal convection on the Palmer Divide
during the mid-late afternoon, light/variable mid-level flow
would do little to steer development east toward the Goodland
CWA. Expect highs similar-to, albeit a few degrees warmer than,
today, ~92-97F.

Sun-Sun night: A similar synoptic pattern will foster sensible
weather conditions similar to Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

***Synopsis***

Monday morning, ridging is favored overhead at 500-mb. This
looks to transition into southwesterly flow as broad troughing
develops across the Western United States throughout the day.
GEFS and EC 500- mb mean-spread guidance favors this upper-level
pattern to persist through the end of the forecast period. A
shortwave system embedded in this southwesterly flow looks to
impact the forecast region Tuesday through Thursday as well.

***Monday***

A surface low pressure traversing the forecast area Monday
morning may support northerly surface winds early in the day,
though GEFS and EC members suggest the formation of a weak,
broad surface low across the west during the afternoon. This
would allow surface winds to have a southerly component by the
evening hours. Even so, high temperatures on Monday are still
forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Showers may develop across
portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening as well. The
favored zone for convection appears to be along a warm front
associated with the initial surface low passing through the
area. LREF guidance suggests that these showers may be
associated with up to 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE (a measure
of atmospheric instability). However, the same guidance
suggests 90th percentile 500-mb winds around 30 kts. While
organized thunderstorms could develop, vertical wind shear may
be lacking. If this is the case, convective mode would likely
stick to thunderstorms that are strong around the time of
initiation, but are brief in nature. Still, severe weather is
possible if 90th percentile or higher winds at 500-mb can be
experienced. GFS model soundings are suggestive of SHIP
(significant hail parameter) values around 1.5, which could
support 2-inch hail in the strongest thunderstorms. Confidence
in a severe weather event on Monday rests around 5-10%.

***Tuesday - Wednesday Evening***

Southerly flow is forecast to remain in place through Wednesday
afternoon ahead of the strong upper-level shortwave trough.
Forecast guidance suggests high temperatures will be hot, with
much of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska between 100 and
105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. While the southerly return
flow is favored to contain moisture, hot temperatures could keep
relative humidity (RH) values low. Forecast guidance suggests
RH will drop into the low to mid teens Tuesday, and upper
single- digits to mid teens Wednesday. Critical fire weather
conditions may be in place both days. NBM guidance suggests
greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph
Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the County Warning Area
(CWA). This is in addition to LREF guidance suggesting a 30-50%
chance for RH values to drop into criteria for critical fire
weather across Eastern Colorado Tuesday. Dry conditions may
stretch further east Wednesday, as portions of Southwest
Nebraska and Northwest Kansas also have a 30-50% chance for RH
meeting criteria for the hazard, and up to a 75% chance in
portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed is highest on Wednesday, around 30%.

***Wednesday Night - Friday***

Passage of the upper-level shortwave trough looks to promote a
cold front overnight Wednesday, allowing slightly cooler
temperatures through the remainder of the week. High
temperatures are forecast in the lower to upper 90s Thursday,
and mid 80s to lower 90s Friday. Critical fire weather
conditions may linger into Thursday, with forecast RH values in
the low to mid teens. However, wind gusts do not look to be as
high as Tuesday and Wednesday, with the current forecast in the
20-30 mph range. NBM guidance does still suggest around a 2/3
chance or greater for wind gusts to exceed criteria (25 mph or
greater) for critical fire weather across Eastern Colorado, but
less across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Confidence
in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is much
lower than Tuesday and Wednesday, around 10%. Cooler conditions
on Friday lower the risk for critical fire weather even further.
Chances for precipitation may increase on Friday as well, as
troughing continues to exist to the west. NBM 24-hr
precipitation guidance suggests up to a 25% chance for greater
than 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Northwest Kansas from
Friday`s activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A period of sub-VFR conditions associated with fog and/or low
ceilings is possible a few hours on either side of sunrise
Saturday morning (~09-14Z) at both terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF
period. Light NE to E winds will veer to the SE-SSE a few hours
after sunrise and increase to ~15 knots during the early
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent