051
FXUS63 KGLD 010839
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
139 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is falling across the Tri-State area early this morning.
  Most locations will receive less than 2 inches, but there is
  a 20% chance a snowband will form and up to 5 inches of snow
  will accumulate.

- Snow will exit the area to the east today, being completely
  out of the area by the early afternoon. Northwesterly gusts of
  20-25 MPH could blow the freshly fallen snow during the day.

- Wind chills this morning will be around 0F and 5F Tuesday
  morning.

- Next chance of precipitation is Wednesday, mainly in eastern
  Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

This morning, we have a trough moving over the region, which is
producing snow and cold temperatures. The trough axis will lead
to a cold front passing through the CWA later this morning,
which will dry out the column and end any remaining
precipitation. This cold front will enter the northwestern CWA
around 16Z this morning and progress fairly quickly to the
southeast. By 21Z, it will be through the area. Precipitation
will be ending about 1-3 hours ahead of the FROPA, so by 18-20Z,
precipitation will have fully ended in the CWA.

We are still forecasting trace to 3 inches of snow to fall with
the highest snowfall amounts expected to be in the southeastern
CWA. Most of the CWA will receive less than 2 inch of snow.
There is still a 10-20% chance a band of snow could lead to 2-5
inches of snow. If this does occur, it would likely be around
Thomas, Sheridan, or Gove counties, but may reach Hill City. We
will see occasional gusts of 20 kts during the snow, which could
lead to some brief patches of less than 1 mile visibility, but
generally visibilities will range from 1-6 miles during the
snow. Travel impacts will should be minimal, but if the snowband
does occur, travel will become hazardous.

Temperatures this morning are still forecast to be in the low to mid
teens, with some northwestern locations potentially seeing upper
single digits. Thankfully, ahead of the front, winds will weaken to
generally under 10 kts during the coldest parts of the morning. This
will keep wind chills around 0, so bundle up as you`re heading out
this morning!

Today, after the front moves through, northwesterly winds will pick
up and we will see gusts around the 20-23 kts range. We will see the
sky clear out and temperatures will warm into the 30s for most of
the CWA. There is a 15-25% chance these winds will start blowing
the freshly fallen snow. With such light accumulations,
widespread impacts to visibility are not anticipated. The
eastern CWA will remain cooler due to the clouds lingering later
into the day. Highs in along and east of a line from McCook, NE
to Gove, KS will likely not climb above freezing.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will cool into the teens with the
eastern CWA still remaining the coolest, dropping to around 10F.
There is a 10% chance a very weak shortwave comes off the Northern
Rockies around 9-15Z tomorrow morning, which would lead to some
flurries or just virga. The lower 100-200 mb look to be fairly dry
tomorrow, so virga is favored. Wind chills Tuesday morning are
forecast to be marginally warmer than Monday`s, only dropping into
the mid single digits.

Tuesday, westerly flow aloft is favored and a low-level ridge
passing over in the morning will give us some WAA from the south.
This will get temperatures into the 40s, maybe even low 50s, during
the day Tuesday.

Late Tuesday afternoon, an 850 mb low is forecast to eject off the
Rockies and bring another cold front and precipitation chance to the
CWA. Lows Tuesday night will remain fairly warm, due to the
additional moisture content, likely staying in the 20s.
Precipitation looks to start creeping into the northwestern portion
of the area around 6-12Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

The central plains will be under a broad northwest to zonal
flow through the long term period, between an upper low over
eastern Canada and a ridge off the west coast of California. A
couple of embedded weak waves will bring low chances of light
precipitation to the area. The first moves through Colorado
Tuesday night and Wednesday, which is where the best chances for
accumulating snow will reside. Ensembles continue to show light
snow amounts, generally less than 1", though the ECMWF is
slightly higher, showing up to 2" in Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties. Winds have increased slightly, models now showing
gusts up to 25 mph accompanying the snow, so there may be some
minor blowing and drifting if snow does accumulate. A dry period
will follow for Thursday and Friday. A couple of weak waves
over the weekend may result in a few sprinkles and/or flurries,
but do not appear impactful at this time. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal on Wednesday with the clouds and
precipitation, then gradually warm to near or slightly above
normal Thursday through Saturday, before cooling off again to
slightly below normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Snow is moving through the area and is forecast to be upon KGLD
by 6Z. Snow will persist through the night, hitting it`s peak at
KGLD likely between 6-10Z and KMCK between 9-12Z. There will be
times throughout the night that snow will briefly stop. Snow
will be leaving both airports by 16-18Z this morning. There is
another chance of virga/snow Monday night into Tuesday morning,
beyond 6Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA