048
FXUS63 KGLD 030624
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1224 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-40%) through
  the start of next week.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

02Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 trough
in place across the Pacific NW, with several small amplitude troughs
rotating around the larger circulation. With strong ridge in place
across the Gulf Coast, broad southwesterly flow aloft was noted
across the Central High Plains. At the surface low pressure was
observed across southeast Colorado near KPUB with weak stationary
front/remnant outflow boundary draped along a Flagler to
Culbertson line in the Goodland CWA.

Increasing temperatures and potential heat impacts will be primary
concern through the Saturday, followed by potential for diurnally
driven thunderstorms.

Overnight through Thursday Night...Southeast Colorado low will lift
to the northeast across the CWA through 12Z, shifting winds to the
northwest and forcing aforementioned weak frontal zone to the south
through the day. Initially, persistent WAA with pockets of weak
elevated instability will bring a small threat for an elevated
shower/weak thunderstorm to develop along area of WAA in the H7-H6
area. This appears to be rather low probability of initiating and
with a 3km deep dry layer to overcome am doubtful that any
meaningful precipitation would be able to reach ground even if
a storm were to initiate. WAA wanes behind departing low and
expect mainly dry conditions to persist through the day. For the
afternoon and evening, expect situation similar to this evening
with a storm or two potentially firing along/near frontal zone
although think cap will remain fairly robust limiting storm
formation. Will include some < 10 pops for potential, but
confidence in initiation and coverage too low for much higher
than that. If a storm can form, will most likely be "pulse" type
with strong winds and heavy rains being primary concern.

Friday-Saturday...Pacific NW trough will continue to deepen and
amplify across the west coast, with ridge reamplifying to the north
as a response. Relatively strong consensus that H5 ridge will build
to around 594dm, with hot weather following with it along with
fairly STAGNANT flow aloft. Despite amplifying ridge, capping
inversion not  strong with each afternoon CIN values
essentially falling to near zero while Q vector fields indicating
overall nearly neutral large scale forcing with dynamic tropopause
data suggesting several low amplitude troughs moving through the
large scale flow. With weakly forced setup and weak deep layer flow,
not very confident in the coverage and location of precipitation
chances and think ensemble/consensus based probabilities the best
bet at the moment. While we will likely see a few rounds of storms
through the start of the weekend, limited instability and weak shear
will keep the threat for widespread severe weather low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Sunday through early next week, large upper level ridge over
the Dakotas and Minnesota starts sliding and amplifying towards
the east as the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest
region begins moving east into Southern Canada. This will cause
the pattern to shift into zonal flow over the majority of
Northern CONUS on Wednesday. Upper level southwesterly flow is
still expected until the low pressure system completely moves
through transitioning to a more westerly flow. With diurnal
heating and deepening embedded shortwave troughs, there is high
confidence (75%) that a weak storm could happen Sunday evening
over the northern portions of the forecast area. While there is
storm supporting mixed layer (ML) CAPE value of 640 J/kg, storm
motion will be relatively slow. Heavy rainfall would be the main
potential hazard as precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to
be 1.45 inches.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for afternoon
and evening showers do increase as the low pressure continues
to move further northeast. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
for Monday evening will be 35-40% in northern Yuma county and
taper down to 10% towards Gove county. Tuesday afternoon looks
to be similar to Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front will pass
through from the low pressure system with ML CAPE value at
840J/kg and a disorganized wind shear profile. There is low to
medium confidence (35-40%) that this will happen as there is
inconsistency within the guidance. PoPs for Wednesday evening is
ranging from 30-35% throughout the entire area, but there is
low confidence that this will stay as the pattern changes.

Temperatures are forecast to start above normal with the
potential to drop back into seasonal temperatures with Sunday
and Monday highs being in the low to mid 90s. There is growing
uncertainty with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
potential cold front moving through. NBM 75th to 25th
percentiles have a 9 degree difference from the forecasted
temperature with potential temperatures dipping further into the
upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminal locations with
winds shifting to more northerly through the overnight hours as
weak cold front moves to the south. A period of LLWS will exist
between 09 and 12Z, primarily at KMCK as LLJ intensifies and
veers to the southwest. While there are some low ( < 5%) chances
for thunderstorms both in the overnight hours and again in the
afternoon, probabilities are too low for any mention in
prevailing forecast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KMK/Moeller
AVIATION...JRM