405
FXUS63 KGLD 012014
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow may develop over portions of the area during the
  day on Wednesday, mainly in eastern Colorado. Light amounts,
  minimal impact(s) presently expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight: Increasing upper level cloud cover prior to sunrise
and light W to SW winds will limit radiational cooling to some
extent, more-so in western portions of the area. Expect
overnight lows ranging from 10-20F, coolest in northeast
portions of the area (McCook, Norton, Hill City).

Tue: Expect a modest warming trend (highs in the 40s) as the
Arctic airmass presently in place over the region exits / drains
downhill to the east and a southerly return flow regime ensues,
though.. warming may be limited/offset (to some extent) by
upper level cloud cover.

Tue night-Wed night: Shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific
Northwest (tonight) will dig SSE through the Intermountain West
(Tue).. then stall in vicinity of the 4-Corners Tue night-Wed
before ejecting east across the Southern Plains (Wed night).
Guidance suggests that precipitation assoc/w this feature will
blossom over the central Rockies Tue night and the CO Front
Range/Palmer Divide Wed morning.. and that light measurable
precip may extend as far east as the Hwy 385 corridor in eastern
CO. With this in mind, expect a potential for light accumulating
snow over western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne
counties (CO) during the day on Wed.. before waning/dissipating
from north-to-south Wed evening. Given the complex nature of
the instigating upper wave (stalling in vicinity of the
4-Corners).. confidence is below average with regard to precip
amounts and eastern extent. In the lower levels, an Arctic
airmass over northern interior Canada will surge S and SE toward
the northern CONUS Tue night-Wed. While the core of the Arctic
airmass (characterized by 850 mb temps -25 to -30C) will remain
north of the Upper Great Lakes, the southwestern fringe of said
airmass will surge southward through the Dakotas (Tue night) and
Central Plains (Wed), the leading edge of which will manifest
as an effective cold frontal passage. Guidance suggests that
cold advection will begin in earnest ~06Z Wed, with 850 mb
temperatures bottoming out at -5 to -10C (in the Tri-State area)
Wed afternoon. Expect well below average highs ranging from the
upper 20`s (CO) to lower-mid 30`s (elsewhere) with overnight
/Thu morning/ lows ranging from 10-20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Long range guidance indicates a WNW-NW flow pattern and
episodic shortwaves over the Rockies and High Plains late this
week into this weekend. Broadly speaking, expect an above
average potential for unsettled weather in the lee of the
northern and central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1006 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. ~10 knot
WSW to W winds (late this morning) will veer to the NW and
increase to 15-25 knots early this afternoon. Winds will back to
the W and decrease to ~10 knots shortly before sunset (~23Z)
this evening. Light (~10 knot) W winds will back to the SW (by
sunrise) and SSW (late Tue morning).. near the end of the 18Z
TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. ~10 knot
WSW to W winds (late this morning) will veer to the NW and
increase to 15-20 knots during the early-mid afternoon. Winds
will back to the W and decrease to ~10 knots shortly before
sunset (~23Z) this evening. Light (5-10 knot) W winds will
gradually back to the SW by the end of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent