568
FXUS63 KGLD 291958
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1258 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds will steadily decline this afternoon,
  becoming light/variable this evening.

- Below normal temperatures expected through early next week,
  coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the
  freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits
  with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday night through
  mid-day Monday. Light winds, minimal impact(s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Overview: An upper level wave in British Columbia (today) will
dig SSE through the Pacific Northwest (tonight), Intermountain
West (Sun) and 4-Corners (Sun night) then progress ESE-E across
the Southern Plains (Mon). In the lower levels, 1035-1040 mb
Arctic high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies (today)
will slowly shift ESE-SE across the Dakotas and Central Plains
(tonight-Sun) then E across the Central MS River Valley (Mon).

Tonight: Strong northerly low-level flow in the wake of an
Arctic cold frontal passage this morning will weaken from west
to east this afternoon. Breezy N winds will rapidly diminish
after sunset. Mostly clear skies, light winds and a newly
deposited Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures
-8 to -11C) will foster strong radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows in the single digits.

Sunday: With Arctic high pressure situated over the Dakotas and
Central Plains.. the Arctic airmass in place over the Tri-
State area will persist, unmodified. This.. along with
increasing upper level cloud cover / dense high overcast
downstream of the upper wave digging SSE through the
Intermountain West will foster well below average highs in the
mid-upper 20s.

Sunday night-Monday: Expect slightly warmer, albeit still well-
below normal temperatures. Guidance continues to indicate a
potential for light precipitation (snow) over the region late
Sunday night through mid-day Monday.. as the aforementioned
upper wave progresses E-ESE from the 4-Corners to the Southern
Plains. 12Z 11/29 operational guidance continues to suggest that
precipitation coverage, location and amounts will be rather
sensitive to the precise track/evolution of the upper wave.
Despite inconsistency w/regard to specifics.. guidance has been,
and continues to be, in good agreement with regard to the
broader/bigger picture -- i.e. a progressive system with
relatively low precipitation amounts (light snow accum) in a
synoptic setup/pattern that strongly favors light winds. In
other words.. minimal impact(s).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Long range guidance suggests a predominantly dry pattern
(little potential for precipitation) characterized by a modest
warming trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region /
drains downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return
flow pattern ensues.. followed by a cooling trend assoc/w
another cold frontal passage mid-week.. followed by a modest
warming trend late-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

GLD: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
will abate late this morning. VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40 KT) northerly winds this
morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT during the early afternoon
and ~20-30 KT by late afternoon. Winds will further weaken at
sunset and become light/variable this evening. Winds will remain
light/variable overnight. Winds will shift to the SE and
modestly increase to 10-15 KT late Sunday morning.. near the end
of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
remain possible through early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40
KT) northerly winds this morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT
during the early afternoon and ~20-30 KT during the late
afternoon. Winds will further weaken at sunset and become
light/variable this evening. Light/variable winds will prevail
through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent