588
FXUS63 KGLD 240027
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog possible tonight and Monday morning.

- Breezy to strong NNW winds may develop in the wake of a cold
  frontal passage Tuesday morning. Present indications suggest
  sustained winds ~25-35 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring much colder temperatures to
  the region this weekend and early next week.

- Snow possible this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today, breezy conditions with winds gusting 20-35 mph are
currently forecast as the trough approaches. Rain chances will
increase through the afternoon as an arc of showers moves
southwest to northeast through the area with a developing low.
Some isolated rumbles of thunder may be possible across
southeastern portions of the area where dew points will be
higher leading to some minimal amounts of MUCAPE. Continue to
have concerns on if the arc of showers and embedded storms will
be more broken to scattered due to drier air continue to be seen
in the 850-750mb level and even some subsidence in the low
levels. This is what is continuing to temper expectations with
pops. The 12Z NAMNEST actually supports this along with the 12Z
RRFS versus the HRRR which has a more organized arc of rainfall.
Gusty winds may occur with the showers or virga with some
sporadic gusts of 35-45 mph. Light rain may then continue to
linger through the evening hours and overnight as cyclogenesis
occurs but with the current forecast track it may be a bit
spotty due to dry slotting. Due to the moist low levels will
need to keep an eye on patchy fog potential where rain is not
ongoing. At this time do not see a reason to change the fog
forecast that was inherited from the prior shift. Some of the
fog could be dense due high difference values of surface to 1km
mixing ratios. Rain is forecast to continue through the morning
hours on Monday as the back end of the low moves through the
area. Dew points remaining in the mid to upper 30s should help
keep the precipitation all rain but if some cooling can occur
then some spotty snowflakes could occur across the higher
elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson county due to wet bulbing.

Monday, light showers and/or drizzle may continue through the
day before ending west to east starting during the mid to late
morning hours as small amount so omega remain in the low levels
according to the 15Z RAP13 as high temperatures are forecast to
remain in the 50s across the area. Lingering fog may also still
continue but similar to the rain potential would end west to
east throughout the day as drier air moves in. Have extended the
duration of the fog through the mid afternoon for eastern
portions of the area due to a deep saturated layer in the low
levels according to 15Z RAP13 soundings. High temperatures for
the day remain forecast in the low to mid 50s.

Monday night and into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move
through the area leading to an increase in winds. GFS and the
ECWMF AIFS are nearly similar on the frontal passage occurring
between 09 and 12Z so have trended Max T for the day a little
lower as the high temperature for the day may actually end up
occurring before sunrise as cold air advection is forecast to
continue to stream into the area. Did nudge temperatures down
some since the colder air is normally more shallow than what
guidance suggests, with this thinking during the daytime hours
temperatures may struggle to remain higher than the low 40s.
Breezy to gusty winds remain forecast through the due to the
proximity of the system over the northern Plains which is what
is moving the cold front through the area. Wind gusts of
35-isolated 50 mph are forecast to occur as the 850mb wind field
increases due to response of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Starting the extended period mid week, including for the
Thanksgiving holiday at this time does look to be more tranquil
as well with ridging over the western CONUS resulting in
northwesterly flow for the area. If the ridge can amplify more
then temperatures may need to be warmed up a few degrees but
with the amplitude of the ridge currently near normal to
slightly below normal temperatures are currently forecast with
the cooler air mass due to the front on Tuesday remaining in
place. In fact there are some GEFS members that keeps colder air
in place which would end up resulting in cooler than forecasted
temperatures for Thanksgiving.

The pattern then begins to turn more active starting as soon as
Friday night into Saturday. Guidance has begun trending towards
a weak shortwave moving off of the Rockies and into the area
interacting with a weak surface low across SW Kansas. These two
features may create enough lift to support light rain or snow
across portions of the forecast area. The timing of the eastward
movement of this low is what will dictate the speed of the
colder air filtering into the area this weekend. Guidance has
trended more towards a Saturday frontal passage. But with the
coldest air towards the start of the new work week. Snowfall
does appear to be possible late weekend and into the start of
the new work week but will be heavily dependent on the track of
troughing ejecting onto the Plains. If the trough can stay
further south then that would eliminate any precipitation
potential. The potential for low temperatures below 10 degrees
has increased since the previous shift now looking to be 40-60%
chance and 10-30% chance of below zero temperatures as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

GLD: Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR then IFR-LIFR this
evening, when pervasive stratus is expected to develop over the
region. IFR-LIFR conditions are likely to prevail, thereafter..
through at least sunrise (if not mid-late Monday morning).
Improvement to MVFR is expected to occur during the late morning
to early afternoon.. followed by VFR during the early-mid
afternoon. South winds at 6-12 knots will become light/variable
by midnight (~07Z) and remain-so through sunrise. Winds will
shift to the NNW and modestly increase to 10-15 knots during the
late morning and persist through the afternoon.

MCK: Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR then IFR-LIFR late
this evening, when pervasive stratus is expected to develop over
the region. IFR-LIFR conditions are likely to prevail,
thereafter.. through late Monday morning. Improvement to MVFR is
anticipated to occur by early afternoon, followed by VFR during
the late afternoon.. near the end of the 00Z TAF period. South
winds at 10-15 knots will become light/variable after midnight
(~07Z) and remain-so through late Monday morning. Light (5-10
knot) winds will shift to the NNW during the late morning to
early afternoon and persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent