996
FXUS63 KGLD 022311
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
411 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the
  week. Near record to record high temperatures again possible
  Tuesday.

- No obvious signals for precipitation for the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1157 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Localized winds of 10-15 mph from the southwest overnight helped
keep some locations warm this morning in the 40s to 50s which is
helping to continue to set the stage for a warm early November day
as temperatures continue to be forecast in the upper 70s to low
80s across the area. Near record to record highs continue to be
forecast. Goodland and Burlington were the ASOS sites that were
impacted by the winds this morning which does help favor them
to reach their record highs as westerly downsloping winds
continues across the area through the day.

Briefly critical fire weather conditions remain forecast this
afternoon across the area. The low end of the dew point echelon
has panned out this morning so far so have tailored the forecast
to a blend of that along with some mixing of some slightly lower
dewpoints from the around 3000-4000 meter level according to
NAM soundings which seems to be a decent middle ground most of
the time with this approach. The biggest question for the fire
weather forecast continues to be the wind. Confidence has
increased to around 80-90% that we will see some critical fire
weather conditions across the area with wind gusts around 25-30
mph. The biggest question continues to be the duration of these
winds mainly due to low mixing heights and the overall coverage
of the gusts. Continued expectations for the day remains that
any wind gusts of 25+ mph will be sporadic due to the shallow
mixing and the strongest wind gusts being located at the very
top of the mixing layer. Confidence in Red Flag Warning
criteria being met in the NW portion of the CWA where the
better potential for the higher winds is around 20-30% at this
time but still with the low confidence in the time aspect will
refrain from a Red Flag Warning.

Winds are forecast to quickly decline around 00Z (5pm MT) and remain
that way. Will then monitoring a cold front moving in overnight.
Confidence has increased that some breezy winds gusting around 25
mph will occur with this. The overall air mass isn`t overly cold
with this front with 850mb temperatures around 5-7C and with the
wind in place will continue to leave the overnight temperatures
bottoming out in the 30s.

Monday, a surface high is forecast to be in place across the area in
wake of the cold front which will lead to winds becoming
southeasterly as it departs. Closer to normal temperatures are
forecast for the day in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds are forecast
to be a little breezy through the day around 15-20 mph sustained
with some higher gusts as well. Some moisture advection is forecast
to occur in the mid levels as cloud cover is forecast to increase as
the day goes on. Overnight Monday, some fog may be possible as some
low level moisture increases but winds turn more to the southwest
which does lower my confidence.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Tuesday, the low pressure systems merge into more of broader low
across the area again with some downsloping wind potential leading
to another day of above normal temperatures in the 70s to even
potentially low 80s again resulting in some near record high
potential. May again need to monitor the potential for some
localized critical fire weather. Guidance has trended a little
breezier currently with the potential for wind gusts of 20-30 mph
across northern portions of the area due to an 850mb and 700mb jet.
Another cold front is then again to move through the area Tuesday
night and into Wednesday leading to cooler but still above normal
highs in the 60s to low 70s across the area. Similar to Monday,
winds are forecast to turn to the southeast and may be become a
little breezy across the northwest counties along the nose of a
surface trough.

Thursday the surface trough moves through again leading to strong
downsloping winds as temperates warm into the upper 60s to low
70s. Winds are however forecast to be breezy from the northwest
around 15-20 mph sustained gusting 25-35 mph.

Guidance continues to show a system moving across the Plains
late week and into the weekend. GEFS ensembles continue to show
quite a bit of spread with the overall depth of this trough
which would affect the intensity of it. There is also quite a
bit of spread as well with the strength of a potential cold
front as well with it. If the stronger front does occur with it
then there is potential that the current forecasted temperatures
are way to high. Based on other ensemble guidance for
temperatures there is not enough signal for me to make any
changes at this time for the temperatures forecast. Continuing
to see no signal for any precipitation chances for the duration
of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 407 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the area as
dry conditions should generally prevail. A cold front is
forecast to move through the area between 01-04Z, switching
winds from out of the south to out of the north. A brief layer
of cloud cover above 7500ft and some low level wind with speeds
around 30-40 kts at a few hundred feet are possible during this
time period. Otherwise, winds near the surface should increase
to around 15 kts with some gusts around 20-30 kts through about
06Z. After that, winds should lower closer to 10 kts and become
a bit more northeasterly. Winds after 12Z should begin to shift
to be more from the southeast with speeds remaining around 10
kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 410 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Tuesday, November 4th. Record highs and current
forecast highs for the date are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

Goodland: 83 in 2020... current forecast 79
Burlington: 84 in 2020... current forecast 78
McCook: 84 in 2020....... current forecast 77
Hill City: 86 in 2020.... current forecast 77

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...Trigg