805
FXUS63 KGLD 060657
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1257 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold tonight with lows in the teens and twenties with light
  winds and mostly clear skies.

- Dry, warming trend expected to last through most of the next
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The rest of the weekend continues to look relatively dry and
calm, albeit with some cold nights.

Temperatures have already warmed into the 40s and will climb a
few degrees higher than what they already area. Winds have been
relatively tame at around 10 to 20 mph with no changes in the
pressure gradient. Tonight, cold lows in the teens and twenties
remain forecast as the winds become light during the evening
once the inversion sets up and with clear skies forecast over
the area as the system shifts east. Temperatures should drop to
the forecast lows fairly quickly, but then increase a few
degrees as a 5-10 mph westerly downslope wind develops after
midnight.

Tomorrow, with the trough axis over and just east of the area
along with the surface high pressure, a nice day is forecast for
the area. Winds are forecast to be around 5-10 mph until maybe
late in the afternoon as some lower pressure develops along the
Front Range. Highs are forecast to climb to around 60F with
850mb temps around 8- 10C and plenty of sunshine. There is still
a chance for some cloud cover and maybe a few virga showers
late in the day with some mid- level moisture trying to move
into the north, but guidance has backed off slightly. So it may
just stay as higher clouds passing through late in the day.

Tomorrow night, there is another chance that temperatures will
drop to the dewpoint fairly quickly with initially light winds
when the inversion sets up and mostly clear skies. However, the
low pressure is forecast to broaden over the Plains with higher
pressure developing along the Front Range. While not much of a
gradient, westerly winds around 10 mph are forecast to develop
late in the evening which will help keep the air mixed and
slightly warm due to the downslope component.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Dry and warm conditions are expected in the long-term as a ridge
will dominate the period. Temperatures will start off warming into
the low to mid 70s Wednesday and by Saturday, 80s are forecast
across the area. Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 30s
to mid 40s, but be aware we still could see some below freezing
temperatures later this month.

There is a low (<15%) chance a shortwave trough will move through
the area during the late week and grace us with some light, isolated
showers. Obviously confidence is not high this will occur, but
there`s a chance. The best chance is looking to be Saturday as
deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing a low level low
moving across the area.

Friday through Sunday, if a surface lee low can form and stack up to
around the 700 mb height, we could see temperatures increase
into the 90s. There`s a lot that would have to come together for
this to occur, but there`s about a 35% chance this will occur
with the aforementioned low this weekend. If it does, we would
be looking at heightened fire weather concerns on Saturday or
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 925 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025

KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions will continue through the taf
period with generally light and variable winds. West/northwest
winds could be around 7-8kts for a few hours in the mid
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99