253
FXUS63 KGLD 232325
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
425 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible tonight-Sunday morning east of a line from
  McCook to Hill City. Dense fog is possible.

- Precipitation chances (20%-40%) continue Tuesday night
  through the day Thursday with the emphasis of better chances
  Tuesday night and Wednesday for light rain showers and snow
  showers.

- Above normal temperatures Sunday fall to below normal levels
  Monday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Tonight...the forecast area will be under west-southwest flow aloft
with cirrus clouds moving through. Low temperatures are forecast to
be in the upper 20s to middle 30s. RAP/HRRR/NAM visibility forecasts
are forecasting some fog across the eastern 1/4 or so of the area
after about midnight. Dense fog is possible.

Sunday-Sunday night...any morning fog across the eastern 1/4 or so
of the area in the morning is forecast to dissipate/move out of the
area by mid to late morning. Otherwise, an upper level trough passes
through the area late in the afternoon, pushing a cold front through
the area. No moisture to work with so we`ll continue with a dry
forecast during the day. Overnight, the moisture profile in the 850-
500mb layer does improve and for now we`ll keep silent pops going
generally north of Interstate 70. High temperatures are forecast to
range from the 40s in snow covered areas of Cheyenne/Kit Carson
counties in Colorado to the 50s and lower 60s elsewhere. Low
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Monday-Monday night...although the upper trough axis moves away from
the area during the day, there is disagreement amongst the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF models on the 850-500mb moisture profile with the NAM
the driest amongst the three and the GFS/ECMWF models agreeing with
each other and the NBM current forecast. High temperatures fall back
into the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the lower to
middle 20s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...zonal flow is established during the day,
ahead of an approaching open wave trough that reaches the northern
plains southwest into the Colorado high country. Favorable moisture
in the 850-500mb layer holds off until the overnight hours when 20%-
30% chances for light rain showers and snow showers reach parts of
far eastern Colorado. With NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures warming 9F to
11F compared to Monday, high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s
look good. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 25 to 30
degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Wednesday...there is pretty good agreement between the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models in supporting 20%-40% chances for light
rain showers and snow showers during the day as the upper trough
moves through. These models also bring in a lot of dry air behind
the trough passage overnight, supporting a dry forecast. The NBM and
current forecast has 20%-40% chances for snow showers overnight.
We`ll watch upcoming model cycles and see if this trend continues or
follows the GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS trends of a dry overnight period.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s with
low temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Thursday...the forecast area is forecast to be under northwest flow
aloft. The current forecast has a 20% chance for light snow showers
in the morning along and north of Interstate 70 but given the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts of rather dry
air, I`m doubtful we`ll get any precipitation for the entire day.
High temperatures will be rather chilly in the middle 30s to lower
40s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the teens.

Friday...we remain under northwest flow aloft. Presently, the
forecast remains dry as the better 850-500mb moisture needed for
precipitation remains to the northeast and east of the area. High
temperatures are similar to Thursday in the middle 30s to middle 40s
with low temperatures in the middle teens to lower 20s.

Saturday...not much change in the 500mb pattern nor at the surface
with dry weather forecast and high temperatures in the middle 30s to
middle 40s and low temperatures in the 10F to 15F range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with
ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. Light
(5-10 knot) southeasterly or variable winds will prevail through
sunrise Sunday. Winds will shift to the N or NNE and modestly
increase to ~8-14 knots late Sunday morning (~17Z) and persist
through the afternoon. Northerly winds will further increase to
15-25 knots around sunset Sunday evening (~00Z Mon) -- in
assoc/w rapid surface pressure rises -- as Canadian high
pressure (centered over southern Alberta) builds/extends
southward along the lee of the northern and central Rockies.

MCK: Fog may develop over portions of south-central Nebraska
and central Kansas early Sunday morning (~07-14Z Sun). While fog
is possible at McCook.. visibility forecasts via recent runs of
the HRRR suggest that locations east of McCook are most at-risk
for early morning fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule
through the TAF period with ceilings confined to cirrus at or
above ~20,000 ft AGL. Light (4-8 knot) southeasterly or variable
winds will prevail through sunrise Sunday. Winds will shift to
the N or NNE and modestly increase to ~8-14 knots late Sunday
morning (~17Z) and persist through the afternoon. Northerly
winds will further increase to 15-25 knots around sunset Sunday
evening (~00Z Mon) -- in assoc/w rapid surface pressure rises --
as Canadian high pressure (centered over southern Alberta)
builds/extends southward along the lee of the northern and
central Rockies.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Vincent