185
FXUS63 KGLD 082336
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
436 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds are expected to decrease through the evening hours.

- Additional fire weather chances are forecast Tuesday and
  Friday.

- Chances for precipitation remain below 10% for much of the
  next 7 days.

- Mild conditions forecast for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1055 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

This afternoon remains forecast to be windy as wind speeds around 20-
35 mph and gusts around 40-55 mph were already observed in Western
Nebraska during the late morning hours. The stronger winds should
expand south into most of the area, with the strongest speeds still
favored for counties along the Nebraska border. Max speeds should
still top off around 40 and gusts around 60 mph. The current
forecast favors sporadic high end gusts, so no High Wind Warning has
been issued so far. Will watch closely to see if winds around the
850-500mb layer are stronger than expected. It does seem like we
will be able to mix out fairly well with temperatures already
warming into the 50s during the late morning. The strong mixing
increases the confidence that the dust threat will be low, with
mainly hazy skies and a few plumes with limited impact ranges.
Increased fire danger remains for the area today with the preceding
dry conditions and strong winds. The good news is that wind
direction should not change through the next 12-24 hours.

Tonight, the colder air mass and high pressure center are forecast
to move more into the area. This should lower winds a bit with
speeds closer to 10 kts as the night goes on. This will also bring
in some much colder air. Even with the winds mixing the low levels,
temperatures are forecast to drop to into the 20s, with most of the
area around the mid-20s. There remains a small chance for some
flurries or quick snow showers, favoring locales along and east of a
line from Benkelman to Colby to Gove. Some low level moisture is
forecast to move in from the surface to about 700mb as the high
pressure pushes in. While not very saturated, any small amount of
lift may allow for a few flakes to fall.

Tomorrow, the center of the high pressure is forecast to move in
over the area. With the area near/under the center of the high, the
winds should remain lower around 10-15 mph. Temperatures are
forecast to be much cooler compared to the last week, with highs in
the 40s. A few flurries could linger through the day with slowly
decreasing cloud cover. As the trough shifts east, drier air should
move in aloft.

Sunday night is forecast to be clear, calm, and cold. With the winds
forecast to be light and clearer skies, temperatures should lower to
near dewpoints in the upper teens and low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

For much of the week ahead, mild conditions are forecast for the
area as we are under either northwest or zonal flow. With this, high
temperatures should generally be in the 60s and 70s. Little to no
precipitation is forecast as dry air is forecast to remain in place
for most of the week. The variation could come from a shortwave
trough that is forecast to move through the Plains around Tuesday.
This could bring some mid-level moisture and potentially a few
showers. It could also allow for stronger wind gusts around 20-30
mph, leading to some critical fire weather concerns as RH hovers in
the teens and 20s. Otherwise, winds should generally be less than 20
mph through most of the work week.

Another trough is forecast to move into and through the area around
the weekend. Timing on which day varies, but cooler temperatures and
stronger winds are likely when it passes through. It could also
bring us a better chance for some precipitation depending on the
moisture return ahead of it. We`ll see what it looks like in the
upcoming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the 00Z
period. The breezy conditions from this afternoon are expected
to decrease over the next few hours as an inversion sets up over
the Central High Plains. This evening, there could be a few
brief instances of low level wind shear between 00-05Z,
especially if the speeds at the surface lower to 10 kts quickly.
A few flurries, especially around KMCK, may be possible between
09-15Z. This could also lead to ceilings around 2500ft. By
16Z tomorrow, conditions should be VFR with winds around 10-15
kts for both terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK