315
FXUS63 KGLD 302243
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
443 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A severe storm can`t be ruled out this evening, mainly in Red
  Willow and Norton counties between 7 PM and Midnight CDT.
  Damaging winds up to 70 mph are the primary hazard.

- Storms in central Nebraska could send outflow south toward
  the I-70 corridor late this evening, leading to a short period
  of strong N winds. Low confidence scenario.

- Breezy and little cooler Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptic Overview: Modest unidirectional/westerly flow aloft
over the Tri-State Area (today) will transition to NW flow aloft
Fri-Fri night as a pronounced upper level ridge over the
Southern Plains migrates westward over the Desert Southwest.

Feature of Interest: Shortwave energy over north-central
Wyoming at 20Z (reference SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort
or 700-400 mb DPVA) will track east across South Dakota tonight,
then dig southeast into Iowa Fri-Fri night.

Through Tonight: Widespread convection (and an associated
mesoscale convective vortex) tracked east across western KS
early this morning and, as of 22Z, convective inhibition
persists across much of the area, east of Hwy 27, in
particular.. where diurnal Cu is absent. Diurnal Cu has, thus
far, been confined to a modest low-level convergence zone
extending northeastward from Cheyenne County, CO to Cheyenne
County, KS. While isolated thunderstorms have developed on the
higher terrain in western Cheyenne County, CO.. further east, in
Cheyenne County, KS.. towering Cu has repeatedly failed to
produce lightning. Current/recent runs of the HRRR suggest that
this trend will persist, i.e. isolated thunderstorms will be
confined to southern portions of the convergence zone in CO,
where effective deep layer shear is weak (~20 KT) and updrafts
are likely to diminish/dissipate with eastern extent across the
CO-KS border, where environmental conditions are less supportive
(diurnal Cu has been suppressed) and convective inhibition will
rapidly increase as insolation wanes / sunset approaches. Thus
far, robust convection has entirely been confined to northern
Nebraska (north of I-80), in close vicinity to upper forcing /
DPVA with the aforementioned feature of interest. With the above
in mind, severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA should
largely (if not entirely) be a function of upstream convection
in northern-central Nebraska, where strong instability and 25-35
KT effective deep layer shear are supportive of supercells,
right-mover motion is from the NW or NNW (~330 @ 20 KT) and
cyclonic supercells could potentially deviate SSE into portions
of southwest Nebraska (Red Willow County) later this evening.
Current and recent runs of the HRRR suggest that discrete
supercells in north-central Nebraska will grow upscale/
transition into a linear MCS that progresses southeast through
north-central and northeast KS (east of the Goodland CWA) late
this evening into Fri morning. If linear/upscale growth occurs
early enough, robust outflow could potentially surge southward
into the Goodland CWA, leading to a short period of
strong/severe northerly winds.

Fri-Fri night: The Tri-State Area will be on the subsident
western periphery of shortwave energy digging SE from South
Dakota into Iowa, where modest surface pressure rises and low-
level cold advection suggests dry conditions and relatively
cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptically for the Long Term period, on Saturday there is a
ridge that will begin to transition to more zonal flow for the
rest of the period. Throughout the week there will be some
embedded shortwave disturbances moving through that will create
some precipitation chances for the County Warning Area (CWA).

Overall for the Long Term forecast, it is looking to be hot,
dry, and windy. High temperatures for this period are forecast
to be in the high 90s, with Monday potentially reaching the low
100s. Winds look to be breezy to gusty and mainly form the south
to east for the majority of the CWA as shortwaves move through
the region.

Monday does have some fire weather concerns. Monday`s highs are
forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s for the majority of
the CWA. Relative humidity values are looking to be in the high
teens to low 20s, particularly for areas west of KS Hwy 27.
Looking at the wind gusts, they are currently forecast to be in
the range of 20-40 mph for the majority of the CWA. Moving to
GFDI, values mainly for Eastern Colorado are in the 30-59, which
would promote very high fire growth. Another concern is the
threat of dry lightning from any thunderstorms that develop over
Eastern Colorado. With these conditions elevated fire weather
is possible; however there are some discrepancies regarding the
timing of when all the ingredients for elevated criteria will be
met at the same time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

GLD: A thunderstorm cannot be ruled-out near the Goodland
terminal early this evening (00-03Z), however, confidence in
thunderstorm development and coverage is low enough to preclude
explicit mention with the 00Z TAF issuance. Light southerly or
variable winds will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will
shift to the N and increase to 12-17 knots this evening and
overnight. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots shortly
after sunrise and remain breezy through the duration of the TAF
period.

MCK: Thunderstorms in north-central Nebraska could potentially
affect the McCook terminal this evening into tonight (02-07Z),
though.. current and recent high-res guidance suggests that
storms may be confined north and east of MCK. Will continue to
mention storm potential with a PROB30 group. Light SE or
variable winds will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will
shift to the N and increase to 10-15 knots this evening and
overnight. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots shortly
after sunrise and remain breezy through the duration of the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Vincent