191
FXUS63 KGLD 081639
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
939 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Eastern Colorado
  through early Saturday morning. Additional snow accumulations
  of up to 3 to 14 inches are possible. Blowing snow could also
  create periods of whiteout conditions in western portions of
  Kit Carson and Cheyenne [CO] counties late this morning and
  early this afternoon.

- Widespread rainfall is expected in Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska today with current the current forecast
  calling for 1 to 2 inches of rain. Small parts of the area may
  even see 3 inches.

- Calmer weather pattern is forecast to end the weekend and
  begin the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 226 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Today is forecast to be the beginning of the end for our multi-day
precipitation event. Current water vapor imagery shows the upper low
in Western NM and Western Colorado with moisture being pulled into
the area from the south. With this setup, more precipitation is
already beginning to move in from the south. Additional
precipitation is expected through the day and should cover the
entire area as the upper and surface low both pull north/northeast
through the day. With near constant precipitation forecast and
better forcing with the lows near the area, QPF amounts are forecast
to generally be between one to two inches. It wouldn`t be
unreasonable for 3+ inches to fall in parts of the area as long as
we don`t get dry slotted. For most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska,
this mean that today will be a wet and cool day with the persistent
rain chances and highs only warming into the 30`s and 40`s. It may
be a bit windier with the low moving near the area as gusts could
reach 30-40 mph, generally from the northeast. Even with the high
rain totals forecast and generally damp conditions prior to today,
flooding is still unlikely as even 3 inches through the day
generally isn`t enough to cause flooding. An isolated instance of
flooding would be possible if a heavy band of precipitation develops
and then rotates on the area later today as the surface low moves up
and through the area.

In regards to the snow, the forecast continues to favor another 3 to
14 inches of snowfall in parts of Eastern Colorado. Currently, the
6+ inch amounts favor from Kirk, to Stratton, to Cheyenne Wells and
west. However, the gradient in snow amounts is forecast to be fairly
high (wide difference in amounts between about 10-15 miles) where
the rain/snow line develops. Based on current observations, the
rain/snow line is around the CO/KS border early this morning.
However, with the low pulling in more moisture and some weak warm
air advection, the rain/snow line should retreat west through the
morning. For the forecast amounts to verify, the rain/snow line
needs to push to the aforementioned cities by noon. The further east
the line remains, the more of Eastern Colorado that will see the
higher amounts and the greater the chance NW Kansas could begin to
see 1-5 inches of snow. Overall, this looks to be a 20% or less
chance that the rain/snow line would remain closer to Yuma,
Burlington, far Eastern Cheyenne county.

Another hazard to keep an eye on is the possibility of blowing snow
producing whiteout conditions. The forecast currently as gusts
around 25-35 mph in Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties from Cheyenne
Wells to Stratton and west. While confidence is not high enough for
a blizzard warning, these locales should use extreme caution while
traveling as conditions may become very dangerous for periods of
time as the wind gusts come and go.

For tonight, rain and snow showers are forecast to continue as the
upper low and surface low continue to push north. As they push north
though, drier air should begin to be pulled in from the south as a
dry slot is expected to develop with the low. This will lighten
precipitation for most of the area as mid-level dry air moves in
while the low levels remain saturated. With the precip forecast to
lessen and the saturated air at low levels, fog will likely develop,
though how thick will depend on how much precipitation lingers and
if the winds can remain strong. Lows are forecast to drop into the
20`s and 30`s.

Tomorrow, the upper low and surface low are forecast to continue
pushing northeast and leave the area. This will end precipitation
chances for the area as the moisture also begins to push out of the
area from south to north. With the current forecast, locales along
and south of I-70 would see the sun come out during the afternoon
after days of near constant cloud cover. Additional precipitation
amounts are currently forecast to be almost negligible at a few
hundredths which will allow the Winter Storm Warning to end and give
calmer weather for the area. Highs are forecast to be in the 30`s
and 40`s for most of the area, with 50`s where the sun can peak
through the clouds.

Tomorrow night should see calmer and clearer conditions across the
area with the systems well northeast of the area. With the clear
skies, lows should drop into the low twenties and 30`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Sunday...shortwave ridging in the morning becomes zonal in the
afternoon ahead of a quick moving upper level trough that moves
through overnight. No moisture for the trough to work with so we`ll
continue with a dry forecast. High temperatures remain challenging
given some expected snow cover along and west of the CO/KS border.
Presently, highs are forecast to be in the 40s to near 50 in the
snow covered areas with readings in the 60 to 65 degree range
elsewhere. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 20s
to middle 30s.

Monday...longwave ridging moves over the area during the day, ahead
of an upper level trough that approaches the Continental Divide
overnight. With a continued lack of moisture for precipitation,
we`ll continue with a dry forecast. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the 40s and 50s in snow covered areas of far eastern
Colorado with readings a few degrees either side of 60 elsewhere.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper teens to
middle 30s.

Tuesday...the upper level trough moves through the area during the
day with northwest flow in its wake overnight. The GFS/GEM/ECMWF
models have moistened up above 700mb compared to 24 hours ago and
its possible that a few showers could develop within the base of the
trough. Presently, the forecast is dry and later updates may re-
introduce some slight chance (20%) pops that were advertised a few
days ago. High temperatures show little change from Monday with
readings in the 40s to around 50 in snow covered areas across
far eastern Colorado with highs around 60 elsewhere. Low
temperatures fall into the lower 20s to middle 30s.

Wednesday...broad upper level ridging moves over the area with dry
weather expected due to very low moisture being available in the 850-
500mb layer. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s across
far eastern Colorado (likely due to snow cover) with 50s elsewhere.
Not sure snow will remain on the ground this far out in time so
watch for later updates. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
middle teens to around 30. Winds are forecast to be from the
northwest, gusting up to 30 mph or so during the day.

Thursday...upper level ridging remains over the area and with a
continued lack of moisture from 850-500mb, dry weather is
anticipated. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s to
lower 60s (coldest where any lingering snow cover exists which
itself is questionable) with low temperatures in the lower 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 938 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

For KGLD, the terminal will see LIFR/VLIFR ceilings for the
entire forecast period as low as OVC002-004. Rain and fog will
also impact the terminal w/ visibility down to a mile or less at
times. Winds, northeast around 15-25kts through 07z Saturday
then dropping to around 10kts. Afterwards, the direction will
back to the northwest 10-15kts by 16z.

For KMCK, through about 02z Saturday, there will be a
transition from a VFR/MVFR ceiling mix to straight MVFR
ceilings around OVC015-020. Looking for 3-6sm in light rain and
fog during this time. From 02z Saturday onward, OVC004-005 for
ceilings and 1-2sm in light rain and fog. Winds, northeast
around 10kts through 00z Saturday, then shifting more easterly
around 15-25kts. By 14z, east around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ090>092.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN