468
FXUS63 KGLD 040504
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1104 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for some patchy fog through Wednesday morning.

- Chances for showers and storms continue through the week.
  There is a chance for severe weather across most of the area
  on Thursday and Friday.

- Below normal temperatures through the end of the week, but
  warming back up to normal and above normal by the weekend and
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

High pressure is centered over western KS/NE during the predawn
hours and is expected to shift towards central KS/NE by daybreak.
Light and variable winds under the ridge axis and temps dipping into
the mid 40s this morning coupled with recent rainfall may be
sufficient for fog development. Uncertainty revolves mainly around
cloud cover overnight which should be increasing from the west along
with a modest southerly gradient behind the ridge axis. As such, fog
formation will be favored along and east of the Highway 83 corridor
closest to the ridge axis and where clouds have the best chance of
holding off.

A pair of shortwave troughs are progged to lift across the region
during the day Wednesday. The first, a convectively induced wave,
emanating from the Four Corners region and associated with ongoing
showers and storms over northern NM and southern CO will encounter
increasingly stable air as it moves into SW KS mid morning. As such,
expect this activity to decay as it moves into Kansas and PoPs are
quite low but a few sprinkles may result, mainly near/south of Route
96.

A second, stronger wave currently over Baja will lift into eastern
CO and western KS this evening and overnight. While modest
instability is expected to develop during the afternoon upstream
supporting thunderstorms over much of central/southern CO,
instability will be weak/negligible locally with only some pockets
of less than 200 J/kg MLCAPE in place over eastern CO. This in
combination with the late diurnal timing should result in a
diminishing threat for storms west to east across the area. 12Z HREF
LPMM reveals a couple localized swaths of heavier rain in excess of
2 inches will be possible with these decaying storms, but most areas
will see little rainfall. HREF mean indicates that rainfall amounts
of a quarter inch or less will be common through daybreak
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Going into Thursday, rain continues to move through eastern and
northern areas in the morning, with perhaps a break in southern
areas. However, clouds will be slow to break with persistent
low level upslope. As another shortwave trough moves through in
the afternoon, convection will develop along the Front Range as
well as in southwest Kansas along a remnant outflow boundary.
Instability will be very limited north of Interstate 70, but
further south may be some uncapped instability of up to 1000
j/kg available by the afternoon. If the clouds do not break in
the south then the instability will not materialize. So, as the
precipitation fills in Thursday night the overall severe threat
seems rather low, and may end up with a third consecutive night
of just a general light to moderate rain.

On Friday will transition to more of a weak northwest flow aloft
and upslope at the surface. Storms should initiate along the
Front Range once again in the afternoon, but with the weak flow
aloft and lack of any stronger forcing models do not bring rain
chances very far east and they fade and dissipate Friday evening
in western and/or southern parts of the area.

Saturday and Sunday...ridge amplifies over the western CONUS
with an upper low undercutting it in California. The Central
Plains will see northwest flow downstream of the ridge axis.
Embedded wave on Saturday will dive southeast into a weakly to
moderately unstable environment with 30-40 kts of deep layer
shear. The pattern would suggest a severe threat with possible
supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps
tornadoes. Still too early to identify specifics in locations
and timing. The northwest flow continues on Sunday, but hard to
find any disturbance in the models. Instability is much weaker
compared to Sunday while shear is about the same. Hard to
completely rule out a severe threat, but confidence is much
lower. Both days will see temperatures inching closer to normal
with highs around 80 on Saturday and mid 80s on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...the western ridge axis will move to the
Central Plains. This should translate to lower precipitation
chances and a continued warming trend. That being said, at least
some instability is forecast both days and there may be weak
disturbances moving out of Colorado through the ridge axis.
However, shear is weak under the ridge and any updrafts that may
develop will struggle to become organized. Highs will be in the
80s both days, possibly approaching 90 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are expected for most of the period.
There is a less than 10% chance for some fog through 15Z as mid
to high level cloud cover, along with a possible 5000ft stratus
deck, are forecast to keep temperatures slightly above dewpoint.
Winds are forecast to be below 8kts and shift to out of the
south through the night. Tomorrow, winds are forecast to be
closer to 15-20 kts after 16Z with gusts up to 30 kts. Cloud
cover should generally remain above 5000ft until the end of the
period when a 20% chance for showers and storms move in from the
southwest along with some moisture advection. ceilings may then
drop to 500-1500ft.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the period.
If the cloud cover can stay away from the terminal tonight,
light winds near the surface should allow temperatures to drop
to near dewpoint and allow some patchy fog to develop. This
would be possible through about 15Z. Otherwise, ceilings through
the period should be above 5000ft. Winds are forecast to pick up
to around 10-15 kts from the southeast after 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK