275
FXUS63 KGLD 110602
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1202 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures through
  the work week, hottest on Thursday and Friday when highs are
  forecast to reach the 90`s.

- Marginally critical fire weather conditions possible over
  portions of the area throughout the work week. At this time,
  relatively light winds (below ~25 mph) appear to be the main
  limiting factor.

- A cold front Tuesday morning could bring a brief period of
  windy to very windy conditions, possibly blowing dust, as it
  moves through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Upper heights will steadily rise through today and tonight with
an upper ridge nudging in from the west. Temperatures will
respond and warm to much above normal with highs in the 80s.
Afternoon relative humidity minimums will fall to around 20%
with downsloping southwesterly winds, with a small area in
northeast Colorado (Yuma County) possibly reaching 15% or lower.
However, winds will be lightest in that area and even the
higher percentile/mixed layer gusts are in the 10-20 mph range.
The same can be said across much of the area: even if dew
points/humidity reach lower percentile values, which would not
be surprising with southwest winds, wind gusts will stay below
the 25 mph gust criteria through the afternoon. The winds do
increase again tonight with the low level jet, but relative
humidity will be increasing by then. So, not expecting critical
fire weather conditions today. A shortwave trough moving through
the northern plains will result in height falls tonight through
Tuesday morning, then rising again afterwards as the ridge
rebuilds. The forcing with the shortwave will stay well to the
north of the area so no precipitation is expected. However, the
associated cold front will move through the area late in the
overnight through Tuesday morning. There are the usual model
differences in timing, but like a faster progression as shown by
the HRRR and NAMnest. The HRRR suggests windy conditions behind
the front Tuesday morning, in the 50-60 mph range, as soon as
the inversion breaks 12-13z. Other models not as aggressive with
the wind, but would not rule it out just yet. May also see some
blowing dust if those winds materialize. Winds will diminish
fairly rapidly through Tuesday morning as the front continues
south. Humidity minimums once again drop to around 20% in the
afternoon, but with the light winds by that time not expecting
critical fire weather. Temperatures on Tuesday cool on slightly
behind the front with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

***Synopsis***

Ridging is favored to be moving in overhead at 500-mb Wednesday
morning, associated with southerly surface flow across the forecast
area. As this occurs, troughing looks to move in across the West
Coast. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with this feature,
specifically regarding how quickly it will make its way toward the
forecast region. As such, it is unclear how long ridging will remain
across the forecast region, though warm and dry conditions would be
favored as long as it is in place. Once the trough reaches the area,
a cold front along with wetter conditions are possible. Model
guidance is largely divergent by Saturday morning, except that
ensembles indicate troughing may reestablish itself across the West
Coast, lasting through the end of the period.

***Wednesday***

Ridging with southerly flow on Wednesday would appear to favor
warmer conditions, with highs currently forecast in the low to mid-
80s. Dry conditions are also possible, with relative humidities (RH)
forecast primarily in the upper-teens to mid-20s, but some isolated
areas of mid-teen RH values across portions of Northwest Kansas and
Southwest Nebraska. Briefly critical fire weather conditions may be
possible during the mid to late-afternoon hours, and would be
dependent on how strong the winds can become, as LREF guidance
suggests less than a 10% chance for RH values to meet criteria for
the hazard across most of the forecast region. According to the NBM,
the highest gusts are forecast to occur in Eastern Colorado, in the
40-45 mph range. While these gusts may be slightly overestimated,
they may be able to overcome forecast RH values in the 20s if they
can be experienced. Gusts are favored to decrease into the 25-30 mph
range moving into Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas. While RH
looks to drop into the teens across this zone, critical fire weather
is forecast to remain marginal at best Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is low,
around 5%.

***Thursday/Friday***

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain on Thursday and Friday
regarding the eastward propagation of a trough from the Western
United States. Thursday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-
spread guidance shows large amounts of spread across portions of the
California Coast and Montana. This would be associated with timing
issues regarding how quickly the feature will move. Essentially, the
longer it takes for this feature to reach the forecast region, the
longer upper-level ridging would be allowed to remain in place.
Warm, dry conditions would be allowed to persist under this pattern.
However, the approaching trough would be associated with a cold
front, and potentially some precipitation. About two thirds to three
quarters of LREF members show 500-mb heights on the higher end
across Central Montana Thursday morning, which would correspond to
the slower solution. This is reflected in forecast guidance showing
high temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s Thursday afternoon,
with RH values in the mid to upper-teens. Wind gusts forecast as
high as 40 mph may implicate critical fire weather conditions
Thursday. NBM guidance suggests that areas along and east of US-83
have the greatest chances for seeing gusts that meet critical fire
weather criteria, with as high as an 80% chance in Norton and Graham
Counties in Kansas. However, most areas across the CWA have a 25%
chance or less to see RH values that meet criteria for the hazard.
Similar conditions may be experienced on Friday if the trough
remains far enough west of the forecast region, though current
guidance places high temperatures for Friday in the low-80s to low-
90s, a little lower than Thursday. This may be associated with the
trough and cold front moving into the area. Confidence in a Red Flag
Warning being needed either day is around 5%.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Model guidance diverges even more significantly by Saturday, though
ensembles are consistent on troughing reestablishing itself
across the Western United States. Under such a scenario, warm
and wet conditions would be possible across the CWA. While
forecast guidance suggests high temperatures in the 80s and
lower-90s Saturday, and upper-70s to mid-80s Sunday, NBM 75th
percentile temperatures across the area both days are in the
upper-80s to mid- 90s, which would be consistent with troughing
to the west. A slight chance (less than 25%) exists for showers
during this period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Skies will be mostly clear with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024