


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
483 FXUS63 KGLD 050512 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1112 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-30% chance that thunderstorms may develop over a very limited portion of northwest Kansas ~4-7 pm CDT Sunday afternoon, mainly in Graham-Gove-Wichita counties where a brief severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail and/or 60 mph winds is possible. Storm development will largely (perhaps entirely) be confined south and east of the Goodland county warning area. - Cooler temps (67-82F) on Sunday, even cooler (55-60F) on Monday. A gradual warming trend will follow, mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Winds are strengthening on schedule as a low pressure system over northeast Colorado deepens strengthening the low level wind fields. Wind gusts around 55 mph are most likely through the afternoon hours but would not be surprised if an isolated instance or two of 60 mph winds occurs somewhere in the forecast area. Some blowing dust is already occurring across the area mainly affecting fields and country roads. Expectations with the dust thus far are on par with reduction in visibilities staying confined to or near dust source regions. The dust is continuing to filter into the atmosphere due to lack of capping across the area due to high mixing heights and high 2-2.5km lapse rates. Localized brownout conditions still can`t be completely ruled out near source regions. Some fire weather conditions/spread still remains a concern especially with the winds this afternoon. Forecasted dew points are fairly aggressive and below most models as this is a typical set up for drier air aloft to mix down to the surface. Even with the forecast being on the drier side and warmer side of temperatures it was still a struggle to get humidity values down to 15% let alone for 3+ hours. Fuel partners did relay that fuels are still marginally cured across most of the area and despite the strong winds, humidity not falling into the 15% RH criteria more than likely was still not enough to warrant Red Flag Issuance. As a result a Special Fire Weather Statement via SPS was issued for the majority of the forecast area. The next concern will be showers and storms developing across eastern Colorado around 22Z. Dry lightning may be a concern with this activity as well with PWATS around 0.75 and fast storm motions. CAPE in general however is weak which does make me question the amount of lightning that will be present. Severe weather may be possible as well with damaging winds of 65-70 mph the most likely severe hazard due to the wind field increasing as the 850mb jet increases just ahead of the cold front. The next hazard would be the potential for blowing dust possibly in the form of a haboob especially with outflows from storms. Confidence has increased slightly in this as the biggest change from the past 24 hours is that guidance is showing more of a pressure rise just behind the wind shift of 3-5mb over 3 hours with the NAM being the outlier at around 8mb over 3 hours. Large hail can`t be completely ruled out either due to the wind shear in place but it would more than likely take a longer lived and stronger updraft to keep keeping particles aloft longer to support hail growth. Freezing levels are still forecast around 12000-15000 feet which is a little low so its not completely out of the realm of possibility. Shower and storm chances look to gradually wane through the evening and further east convection pushes as drier air begins to filter in behind the front. Winds will also gradually wane as well behind the front as we lose the effects from the pressure rises. Troughing continues through the day Sunday with breezy winds continuing behind in wake of the front but not nearly as windy as today with winds gusting up to 25 mph from the north. The front from today may stall out across southeastern portions of the area, which if it does then some severe weather may occur along and east of roughly a Hill City to Gove line with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Current thinking is that the front will set up just south and east of the forecast area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is around 10% at this time. If severe weather were to occur the threat would be from around 4pm CT to 6pm CT before moving out. Overnight Sunday a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to occur which is forecast to increase winds a bit more than what occurred in the afternoon with gusts around 30-35 mph. Additional showers and storms may develop with this front as well overnight; severe weather looks unlikely to occur with that activity. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The extended period starts with much cooler temperatures in wake of the stronger cold front from Sunday night. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area Monday, but if cloud cover can remain thick enough then high temperatures may struggle to even make it to the 50s in spots. A surface high is forecast to push into the area from the north Monday night and into Tuesday morning which would lead to lighter winds and if clouds can clear out perhaps some frost concerns may creep into the area as well. Dependent on how quickly the front moves as well additional rain chances may ensue Monday night into Tuesday morning as well. Through the remainder of the week guidance has started trending towards some ridging over the southern Plains as another system begins to develop across the western CONUS. If this trend does continue we could see another warm up towards middle portions of the week along with another uptick in winds as well. Current forecast has humidity values falling into the low 20s, if the speeds of the some low level jets can sync up then anther risk of some fire weather conditions may become realized. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 GLD: Aside from a small potential for sub-VFR conditions assoc/w scattered high-based showers this evening.. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SSW to W winds at 10-20 knots this evening may shift to the N overnight.. as a modest lee trough in CO slowly progresses eastward into northwest KS. Surface high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies will extend southward into the Central Plains Sunday morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a definitive northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal passage/ around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun). Northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day. Winds will veer to the NNE-NE and strengthen to ~20-30 knots around or shortly after sunset (00-02Z Mon).. when the MSLP-850 mb height gradient will further tighten and low-level cold advection will begin in earnest. MCK: Aside from a small potential for sub-VFR conditions assoc/w scattered high-based showers this evening.. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S winds at 20-30 knots this evening will decrease to 15-20 knots overnight.. shifting to the SW, W then N by sunrise. Surface high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies will extend southward into the Central Plains Sunday morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a definitive northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal passage/ around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun). Northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day. Winds will veer to the NNE-NE and strengthen to ~20-30 knots around or shortly after sunset (00-02Z Mon).. when the MSLP-850 mb height gradient will further tighten and low-level cold advection will begin in earnest. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Vincent