741
FXUS63 KGLD 052317
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical to critical fire weather forecast across Kit
  Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado this afternoon,
  possibly extending into adjacent Kansas counties.

- Watching for another fog and freezing fog potential Friday
  morning.

- Closer to normal temperatures (40s) into the weekend and then
  trending colder next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

A surface low at the base of an inverted lee side trough is slowly
ending cloud cover and fog west to east across the area. Where
clouds have already broken across western Kit Carson county
temperatures quickly rose into the low 50s whereas in the cloud
cover it will be a struggle to get out of the 20s and 30s until the
clouds break. I did lower temperatures across the far eastern
counties due to the longer residence time in the clouds.

Remainder of the day, continuing to watch for near critical to
critical fire weather across the Colorado counties with the main
focus on the western periphery of each county. RH values do
look to be lowest across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties but
due to the slightly slower exit of the clouds and the delayed
nature of the winds thus far confidence remains to low to issue
a short lead time Red Flag Warning as confidence in 3+ hours of
critical conditions remains only around 20%. Medium to high
confidence (60%) remains in 1- 2 hours of critical conditions
however. Dew points are also forecast to slowly increase which
will help mitigate how low RH values do fall.

Overnight, clear skies will prevail across the entire area with
perhaps a slow decline in temperatures due to warm 850mb
temperatures above 10C and a continued westerly wind in place. Focus
will then turn to an approaching backdoor cold front that is
forecast to sweep across the area during the early morning
hours which will turn winds to the northeast. At this time not
seeing any signals of cloud cover or precipitation with this
front.

For Thursday, a surface in wake of the front looks to remain in
place mainly across eastern portions of the area keeping winds light
and variable. Across the west, a tightening pressure gradient across
the west will again lead to some breezy winds gusting around 30 mph
during the afternoon. I did knock highs down a couple of degrees as
a continued easterly wind should help keep temperatures from
rising.

Thursday night and into Friday, winds will again become ESE
overnight increasing the upslope regime similar to what has
been the norm the past few days. Think we all know what this is
leading to... yep thats right another potential freezing fog and
stratus event for the area. RAP so far is the most aggressive
with this with the NAM also showing some hints, albeit a little
further to the west. Given the fairly decent agreement with the
pattern and the relative better low level moisture agreement
with the NAM/RAP/HRRR did go ahead and introduce patchy fog into
the forecast. Fog can be very difficult to nail down on
location and timing but with the overall strong signal and
favorable pattern I had enough confidence to at least add it
into the forecast. However, it does appear to be a favorable
pattern for its development. At this time it appears that fog
should be the only hazard Friday morning with the threat for
freezing drizzle at this time appearing to be low mainly due to
the lack of moisture in the lowest 1km remaining less than 85%
thus far. However with the continued upslope flow and the
probability of ice in the clouds looking low so far this time
it still warrants keeping watch.

For Friday, with the fog and stratus during the morning it may
create some cooler than forecasted temperatures if the cloud
cover can linger around long enough. At this time it looks to be
similar to what occurred today with an west to east end to the
cloud cover through the day so didn`t get to aggressive with
lowering temperatures; however if it does linger then
temperatures may be cooler than forecast. High temperatures for
the day are currently forecast in the low 40s to low 50s across
the area with the warmest across eastern Colorado. Winds also
do look to increase throughout the afternoon and evening hours
as well ahead of a system this weekend. Wind gusts at this time
are forecast around 25-35 mph nearly across the entire area with
strongest across Yuma county.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Temperatures will be trending downward this period. The first
drop will occur Saturday with a cold frontal passage which
lowers temperatures to near normal (low to mid 40s). May see
breezy to windy conditions behind the front through Saturday
afternoon. Clouds and precipitation chances will keep
temperatures below normal Sunday through Tuesday, with Tuesday
being the coldest day of the period (highs in the 20s and lows
in the single digits). A broad upper level trough will be carved
out across the central plains and move little. Shortwaves
rotating through the trough will bring occasional chances for
light snow. Models are suggesting that Tuesday will see the best
chances for accumulation ahead of one of the stronger
shortwaves approaching the Rockies and low level upslope in
place. Still plenty of model discrepancy that many days out on
amounts and timing. Temperatures on Wednesday have the highest
spread of any in the period, with some models keeping it cold
with light snow chances continuing, others showing a modest warm
up to near normal. NBM tilts toward the colder solutions for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 413 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both
terminals. KMCK has a 5-10% chance to see fog around 3SM from
03-06Z, but dry air should prevail and keep skies clear.
Otherwise, LLWS is forecast for both terminals as a cold front
moves through the area, though a stout inversion may keep the
LLWS a bit higher than normal around 1000-1500ft. Winds near the
surface are forecast to vary both in direction in speed through
the period, even with the frontal passage. As a whole, winds
should become southwest this evening, shift to out of the north
overnight, and then shift to out of the southeast during the
day.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK