239
FXUS63 KGLD 131758
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1058 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light wintry precipitation will end around sunrise. Main rain
  chances start this evening lasting through Saturday. Some
  thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, no severe
  weather is expected.

- Early morning sub-freezing temperatures today and Sunday
  morning could lead to black ice.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday through
  Wednesday. Tuesday is the most concerning with high winds and
  blowing dust potential as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

This morning, as our ridge leaves the area ahead of our incoming
trough, 500 mb vorticity and mid level moisture is causing some
light showers to occur across the CWA. This precipitation is very
scattered in nature and will lead to very little, if any
accumulation due to a fairly dry PBL. The vast majority of the
precipitation that falls this morning will be rain/snow mix, but
there is a 10-15% chance some freezing rain could occur along and
north of U.S. 36. The wintry mix and the potential for sub-freezing
temperatures to freeze recently fallen rain could lead to patchy
black ice this morning. The precipitation will become more scattered
by sunrise and only rouge sprinkles or flurries would occur between
12-21Z.

Most of the cloud cover will stick around all day, stunting
temperatures to around 60 degrees. For the main system this evening,
the path is now taking a farther northern route. Most models now
have the low moving over the TX/OK panhandles around 9Z. However,
around 21-3Z, 250 mb jet stream right entrance region will be over
southwestern Kansas. Additionally, there will be around 100-500 J/kg
of MUCAPE over the southeastern CWA. This could to lead to some
scattered thunderstorms before the main stratiform rain moves in. No
severe weather is expected, but it`s not every day in February that
we get the chance at thunderstorms. The peak of the precipitation
will be occur around 6-18Z Saturday. Precipitation will be exiting
from northwest to southeast between 18-0Z Saturday afternoon.

Precipitation will be mainly focused along and southeast of a line
from Norton, KS to Cheyenne Wells, CO. In this area, REFS is showing
an 80%+ probability of greater than 0.25" QPF by Saturday evening,
the HREF shows a 70-80%+ probability, while the NBM has a 50-60%
chance of the same. Due to the fairly close spread of possibilities,
forecaster confidence is sitting around 75%. Northwest of the line,
QPF values rapidly drop off, ranging from 0.2" to trace with lowest
amounts in the northwestern CWA. 75% percentiles of these three
guidances range from 0.55-0.9" QPF.

The additional moisture will insulate the surface well, likely
keeping lows and highs between the mid 30s to mid 50s Friday night
through Saturday, respectively. The vast majority of the
precipitation will be rain, but we could see some snow briefly mix
in around sunrise. However, the biggest threat from this
precipitation would be overnight freezing leading to black ice. As
mentioned, Friday night looks to largely remain above freezing, but
eastern Colorado and Dundy county could cool to below freezing.
Saturday morning into Sunday morning, temperatures look to drop to
around 30 for most of the area. This will be the time of the
greatest risk of black icing, so be prepared for slick
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sunday, the warming trend continues for our region as we are
forecast to be under a weak ridge with a trough developing off the
west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the mid/high 60s with
lows in the 30s. The afternoon will be windy for our Colorado
counties with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Relative humidity (RH)
values are forecast in the high teens/low 20s. Fire weather could be
a concern Sunday if RH values drop further due to the higher
temperatures and downsloping winds.

Conditions remain warm Monday with highs forecast in the upper 60s.
Winds are not quite as severe, but gusts up to 30 mph are still
possible for our Colorado counties. Periods of elevated critical
fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon. RH values are
forecast in the teens for the western portion of the county warning
area (CWA) when our lowest RH values are forecast to occur in the
afternoon.

Tuesday continues to be concerning for critical fire weather
conditions. Model to model run, we are forecast to be in a strong
southwesterly flow with a 250 mb jet maximum over our area. This
will pummel our area with strong southwesterly/westerly winds
causing dry conditions. Wind speeds have gone up with the latest run
of the NBM. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the eastern
portion of the CWA and gusts from 45-65+ mph are possible for
the western portion. NBM probability is around 60% for wind
gusts greater than 40 mph for our Colorado counties Tuesday
afternoon. Grossly elevated Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI)
values add to the critical fire weather concerns for Tuesday.
Values are forecast from 60-125+ for the western portion of our
CWA. Any fires that start will have rapid growth and spread out
of control quickly. Widespread Red Flag Warnings may be needed
for the area if conditions pan out.

Blowing dust may be a concern Tuesday, particularly for our Colorado
counties. GFS low level lapse rates are between 8.5-10 C/km, which
support dust being lofted, but mid level lapse rates are around 7
C/km. This will make any lofted dust likely to mix out. Between 18Z
and 0Z overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, a cold front moves through
the region, which would add to blowing dust potential.

Wednesday will continue to have fire weather concerns as we remain
under a strong jet maximum. RH values and dewpoint are forecast in
the teens. These are likely to lower even further in response to
Tuesday`s winds. Winds gusts are forecast up to 35 mph for the
eastern half of the CWA and gusts from 40-50 mph are possible
for the western portion. GFDI values range from 60-120 for the
western portion of the CWA as well supporting rapid fire growth
and spread.

There is a slight chance for precipitation overnight Wednesday into
Thursday as the right entrance region of a jet maximum traverses
through our region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 10-20%
for the northern portion of the CWA. Conditions cool slightly
with highs forecast in the 50s. Winds calm down slightly in
comparison to earlier in the week with gusts up to 30 mph
possible for our Colorado counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1019 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD and KMCK through most of the
day. KGLD could see ceilings lowering and light rain start as
early as 03Z, and conditions will only get worse from there.
MVFR and IFR conditions look possible by sunrise tomorrow at
KGLD due to low ceilings. KMCK will be north of most of the
rain chances, but could still see MVFR conditions between
9-15Z. Precipitation looks to be a cold rain with temperatures
falling into the mid 30s overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KMK