935
FXUS63 KGLD 182315
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions of
  the area on Friday, mainly along/west of Hwy 25 where breezy
  southwest winds may develop during the mid-late afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop over much, or all, of
  the Tri-State area this weekend as a potent upper level low
  tracks eastward across the Rockies and Central Plains. Severe
  thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are
  possible, mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Southwest flow aloft will continue through Friday between a
trough in the Four Corners region and a ridge over south Texas.
It will be dry today and tomorrow with a weak frontal passage
tomorrow morning have little weather impacts other than a wind
shift. On Friday afternoon, increasing southwest winds and low
humidity in northeast Colorado will result in elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions. Friday night, a weak wave
coming around the southern ridge will result in widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms are not currently
expected due to limited instability, though a few instances of
gusty winds cannot be completely ruled out with favorable DCAPE.
High temperatures through Friday will be in the mid 80s to lower
90s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper low will eject from the Four Corners across Colorado and
the adjacent plains Saturday and Sunday, bringing widespread
precipitation chances. Highest probabilities for rain will begin
Saturday afternoon and continue through Saturday night and
Sunday morning, gradually tapering off Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. There will be some severe threat towards the
beginning of the event Saturday afternoon, with weak to some
pockets of moderate instability currently forecast and deep
layer shear of 30-50 kts ahead of the ejecting low. Favorable
area will be along/ahead of the accompanying surface frontal
boundary which will be located northeast to southwest across the
forecast area. As the upper low kicks out Saturday night the
front will surge south with breezy north winds in its wake. Rain
will continue, possible heavy at times, Saturday night through
Sunday morning. No severe weather is expected beyond Saturday
night. NBM statistics have increased with the potential
rainfall for this event, with mean 48 hour amounts (Saturday
morning through Monday morning) ranging between 1 and 2 inches
for the entire area, higher percentile amounts are between 2 and
3 inches, while the highest percentiles are between 4 and 5
inches. While there may be some potential for flooding Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night with the convection, the
prolonged nature of the event will bring beneficial rainfall to
most areas which have been steadily sliding into drought the
past several months.

Northwest flow will follow behind that system for early next
week. Might see isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
associated with any weak disturbance in the flow each day, but
instability will be very limited and most locations will remain
dry.

Temperatures will potentially reach the low to mid 80s Saturday
afternoon before the clouds and precipitation begins, followed
by clouds and rain Saturday night and Sunday with lows in the
40s and 50s and highs Sunday mainly in the 60s. Next week will
see temperatures near to slightly below normal with highs in the
70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 505 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR prevailing at both KGLD and KMCK overnight. S winds shifting
NW closer towards Thursday morning becoming breezy towards midday
with gusts up around 20 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024/Sipprell