Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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483
FXUS63 KGLD 050512
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1112 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-30% chance that thunderstorms may develop over a very
  limited portion of northwest Kansas ~4-7 pm CDT Sunday
  afternoon, mainly in Graham-Gove-Wichita counties where a
  brief severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail
  and/or 60 mph winds is possible. Storm development will
  largely (perhaps entirely) be confined south and east of the
  Goodland county warning area.

- Cooler temps (67-82F) on Sunday, even cooler (55-60F) on
  Monday. A gradual warming trend will follow, mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Winds are strengthening on schedule as a low pressure system
over northeast Colorado deepens strengthening the low level wind
fields. Wind gusts around 55 mph are most likely through the
afternoon hours but would not be surprised if an isolated
instance or two of 60 mph winds occurs somewhere in the forecast
area. Some blowing dust is already occurring across the area
mainly affecting fields and country roads. Expectations with the
dust thus far are on par with reduction in visibilities staying
confined to or near dust source regions. The dust is continuing
to filter into the atmosphere due to lack of capping across the
area due to high mixing heights and high 2-2.5km lapse rates.
Localized brownout conditions still can`t be completely ruled
out near source regions. Some fire weather conditions/spread
still remains a concern especially with the winds this
afternoon. Forecasted dew points are fairly aggressive and below
most models as this is a typical set up for drier air aloft to
mix down to the surface. Even with the forecast being on the
drier side and warmer side of temperatures it was still a
struggle to get humidity values down to 15% let alone for 3+
hours. Fuel partners did relay that fuels are still marginally
cured across most of the area and despite the strong winds,
humidity not falling into the 15% RH criteria more than likely
was still not enough to warrant Red Flag Issuance. As a result a
Special Fire Weather Statement via SPS was issued for the
majority of the forecast area.

The next concern will be showers and storms developing across
eastern Colorado around 22Z. Dry lightning may be a concern with
this activity as well with PWATS around 0.75 and fast storm
motions. CAPE in general however is weak which does make me
question the amount of lightning that will be present. Severe
weather may be possible as well with damaging winds of 65-70 mph
the most likely severe hazard due to the wind field increasing
as the 850mb jet increases just ahead of the cold front. The
next hazard would be the potential for blowing dust possibly in
the form of a haboob especially with outflows from storms.
Confidence has increased slightly in this as the biggest change
from the past 24 hours is that guidance is showing more of a
pressure rise just behind the wind shift of 3-5mb over 3 hours
with the NAM being the outlier at around 8mb over 3 hours. Large
hail can`t be completely ruled out either due to the wind shear
in place but it would more than likely take a longer lived and
stronger updraft to keep keeping particles aloft longer to
support hail growth. Freezing levels are still forecast around
12000-15000 feet which is a little low so its not completely out
of the realm of possibility. Shower and storm chances look to
gradually wane through the evening and further east convection
pushes as drier air begins to filter in behind the front. Winds
will also gradually wane as well behind the front as we lose the
effects from the pressure rises.

Troughing continues through the day Sunday with breezy winds
continuing behind in wake of the front but not nearly as windy
as today with winds gusting up to 25 mph from the north. The
front from today may stall out across southeastern portions of
the area, which if it does then some severe weather may occur
along and east of roughly a Hill City to Gove line with large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. Current thinking is
that the front will set up just south and east of the forecast
area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is around 10% at
this time. If severe weather were to occur the threat would be
from around 4pm CT to 6pm CT before moving out. Overnight Sunday
a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to occur
which is forecast to increase winds a bit more than what
occurred in the afternoon with gusts around 30-35 mph.
Additional showers and storms may develop with this front as
well overnight; severe weather looks unlikely to occur with that
activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The extended period starts with much cooler temperatures in
wake of the stronger cold front from Sunday night. High
temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area Monday, but if cloud cover can remain
thick enough then high temperatures may struggle to even make it
to the 50s in spots. A surface high is forecast to push into
the area from the north Monday night and into Tuesday morning
which would lead to lighter winds and if clouds can clear out
perhaps some frost concerns may creep into the area as well.
Dependent on how quickly the front moves as well additional rain
chances may ensue Monday night into Tuesday morning as well.

Through the remainder of the week guidance has started trending
towards some ridging over the southern Plains as another system
begins to develop across the western CONUS. If this trend does
continue we could see another warm up towards middle portions of
the week along with another uptick in winds as well. Current
forecast has humidity values falling into the low 20s, if the
speeds of the some low level jets can sync up then anther risk
of some fire weather conditions may become realized.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

GLD: Aside from a small potential for sub-VFR conditions
assoc/w scattered high-based showers this evening.. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SSW to W winds
at 10-20 knots this evening may shift to the N overnight.. as a
modest lee trough in CO slowly progresses eastward into
northwest KS. Surface high pressure in the lee of the northern
Rockies will extend southward into the Central Plains Sunday
morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a
definitive northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal
passage/ around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun).
Northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day.
Winds will veer to the NNE-NE and strengthen to ~20-30 knots
around or shortly after sunset (00-02Z Mon).. when the MSLP-850
mb height gradient will further tighten and low-level cold
advection will begin in earnest.

MCK: Aside from a small potential for sub-VFR conditions assoc/w
scattered high-based showers this evening.. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. S winds at 20-30 knots this
evening will decrease to 15-20 knots overnight.. shifting to the
SW, W then N by sunrise. Surface high pressure in the lee of the
northern Rockies will extend southward into the Central Plains
Sunday morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a
definitive northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal
passage/ around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun).
Northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day.
Winds will veer to the NNE-NE and strengthen to ~20-30 knots
around or shortly after sunset (00-02Z Mon).. when the MSLP-850
mb height gradient will further tighten and low-level cold
advection will begin in earnest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent