320
FXUS63 KGLD 300506
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1006 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the remainder of the week. Hazardous weather is
  presently not anticipated through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge building onto the West
Coast and a trough over the Great Lakes region. Between the two
features was northwest flow. Water vapor imagery showed a very
dry air mass over the Plains and Great Basin.

For the rest of today the cold air advection will gradually
shift east out of the forecast area. Despite breezy low level
winds over the eastern part of the forecast area, the inversion
in place will prevent those winds from reaching the ground.

Tonight weak warm air advection will progress east across the
forecast area. This will allow lows to be warmer than last
night.

Tuesday warm air advection will continue over the forecast
area. Due to light northwest winds over the forecast area,
decided to warm temperatures to the 75th percentile since this
the setup for highs becoming warmer than what most data was
indicating. This only resulted in a couple degree rise from the
model consensus. Also lowered dew points to the 25th percentile
based on soundings showing the potential for lower dew points
above ground to mix down. Despite these adjustments the relative
humidity values for the afternoon has remained above 15% for
the west two thirds of the forecast area. Model data shows the
75th percentile wind gusts are 23 MPH for the western part of
the forecast area for a couple hours. This leads to low
confidence (10%) that critical fire weather conditions will
occur during the afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night the dry forecast
continues. Warm air advection will continue, allowing
temperatures to slowly warm. Relative humidity values will fall
close to 15% Wednesday afternoon. However the 75th percentile
wind gusts peak at 25 MPH for an hour in the late morning. This
looks very similar Tuesday so confidence for fire weather
conditions on this day is also very low. Wednesday night a
backdoor cold front will move into the eastern half of the
forecast area. As such lows will be a five degrees or so cooler
behind the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

An omega blocking pattern across the CONUS has kept
temperatures unseasonably warm for the county warning area
(CWA). Thursday, it begins to propagate east and sets the stage
for a ridge to build in the CWA. Temperatures will remain warm
with a majority of the CWA reaching highs in the 50s and lows in
the mid 20s Thursday. The far eastern counties (Norton and
Graham) will be a bit colder with highs in the mid 40s due to a
cold frontal passage northeast of the area. Friday and Saturday
will remain warm with highs in the mid 50s and portions of
Colorado reaching the low 60s. We remain in a ridge pattern
through Sunday and have another cold frontal passage Monday
bringing increased cloud cover to the CWA. We then switch to a
calm zonal pattern through Tuesday with sunny skies.

Despite the pattern shift, temperatures Sunday through Tuesday
continue to have highs in the mid 50s and lows in the 20s. Winds
will be mild and variable throughout the forecast period with
occasional gusts up to 10-15 knots. With overall mild winds and
low forecasted relative humidity (RH) values in the low 20s,
fire weather concerns are currently minimal. With the dry ridge
pattern, we will continue to monitor forecast RH values and re-
evaluate fire weather risks as the week progresses. No
precipitation is expected currently with this weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1001 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both terminals
through the period. Winds should generally remain below 10 kts
from the west until close to 18Z. Speeds should then increase to
around 10-15 kts with a few sporadic gusts to 20 kts. Some mid
to high level cloud cover is forecast to move in around this
time as well, but nothing impactful is currently forecast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/EER
AVIATION...KAK