207
FXUS63 KGLD 280823
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week,
  with severe weather largely confined to the Northern Plains.

- Southernmost extent of thunderstorm development (and severe
  weather potential) may include portions of far northeast
  Colorado on Tuesday, mainly Yuma County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will persist over the Tri-State
Area, between an amplifying ridge over the MS River Valley and
a broad upper level low over the Intermountain West and northern
Rockies.

Today-Monday: Persistence forecast. Guidance indicates little
change in the synoptic pattern in place over the region during
the next 36 hours. Daily/diurnal lee cyclone development in CO
will continue to foster breezy SSW to SW low-level flow during
the afternoon hours each day. Guidance also indicates that
convection will be confined to the Northern Plains (mainly
Dakotas), in closer proximity to shortwave energy progressing
cyclonically around a broad upper level low over the northern
Rockies. With steering flow from the SW, convective development
and convective phenomena (outflow, MCV`s, remnant cloud cover,
etc.) over the Northern Plains are exceedingly unlikely to
affect the mesoscale pattern several hundred miles further to
the south, in the Tri-State Area. With the above in mind, expect
sensible weather conditions similar to Saturday, i.e. hot, dry
and breezy. At present, fuels are not conducive for critical
fire weather conditions. -Vincent

Tuesday presents a similar scenario. RRFS suggests the dry line
will retreat as far west as the Colorado and Kansas border area
by the afternoon with the NBM also showing southeast winds and
higher dew points. RRFS shows more of pronounced shortwave in
the southwest flow aloft and initiates convection in the area
after 21z. The environment would be supportive of a severe
threat with up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 40 kts of deep layer
shear, strongest in the northwest half of the area. Still a few
days out and unsure how the other CAMs will handle it, but there
is at least some hints of a severe risk on Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures continue in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot, dry, and windy weather persist through the long term
forecast period. Wednesday, our region is forecast to be in a
southwest upper- level flow with a jet streak overhead. High
temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the county warning area
(CWA). Expect a windy Wednesday for our Colorado counties with
wind gusts up to 40 mph possible. A shortwave passage will bring
a slight chance of precipitation Wednesday afternoon, but
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 15% for the
northeast CWA. Instability is weak, so any storms that form will
likely be isolated and sub-severe with small hail and strong
winds as the primary hazards.

Thursday through Saturday, conditions continue to be hot, dry,
and windy with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s. Wind
gusts of 20 to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds
forecast across the western CWA.

While the meteorological conditions are conducive for fire
weather, how receptive fuels will be is the big question.
Wednesday through Saturday, relative humidity (RH) values are
forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA
accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger
Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme
category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels
may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire
weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We
will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to
better determine fire weather potential for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GLD: Clear skies and VFR conditions will rule through the TAF
period. KGLD velocity data at 05Z this evening indicates a ~55
knot SSW low-level jet at ~800 ft AGL. Expect LLWS for several
hours, until 08-10Z, when guidance indicates that low-level flow
will veer to the W and decrease in magnitude. 10-15 knot S to
SSW surface winds will shift to the W ~08Z and persist through
mid to late morning. Winds will back to the SW and increase to
15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots by early afternoon (~18Z). SW
winds will further increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30-35
knots during the mid-late afternoon (~22Z) and persist until
sunset (~02Z Mon), at which point winds will back to the S and
decrease to 10-15 knots. A strengthening SSW to SW nocturnal
low-level jet will produce LLWS during the late evening, near
the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: Clear skies and VFR conditions will rule through the TAF
period. Expect 45-50 knot SSW to SW low-level wind shear for
several hours, until 09-11Z, when guidance indicates that low-
level flow will veer to the W and decrease in magnitude. 8-13
knot SE to SSE surface winds will shift to the SW or WSW ~09Z
and persist through the remainder of the morning. Winds will
back to the SSW and increase to 12-17 knots with gusts up to 25
knots during the mid-afternoon and persist until sunset (~02Z
Mon), at which point winds will back to the SE and decrease to
8-13 knots. A strengthening SSW to SW nocturnal low-level jet
will produce LLWS during the late evening, near the end of the
06Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent/024
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Vincent