181
FXUS63 KGLD 051038
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures, pervasive cloud cover and periods of rain
  expected through Wednesday.

- Rain is forecast to transition to wet snow late this eve into
  Wed morning, mainly in eastern CO and KS border counties where
  temps will hover around, or just above, the freezing mark.
  Several inches of accumulating wet snow possible.

- Light winds and a clearing trend may lead to sub-freezing
  temps and frost/freeze conditions over much of the area Wed
  night into Thu morning. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for
  this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Quick Overview: Expect pervasive cloud cover, periods of
precipitation and much cooler temperatures with an atypically
small diurnal range today and Wednesday.

Winter Weather: Current/recent (00-06Z 05/05) model guidance
continues to indicate a rate-driven/assisted transition from
rain to wet snow over a limited portion of the area late this
evening into Wed morning, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS
border counties (or along/west of Highway 27), heaviest between
00-18Z Wed. 09Z / 3AM MDT surface observations indicate a
thoroughly above- freezing airmass both over and upstream (N and
NE) of the Goodland county warning area, with surface
temperatures 40-48F, dewpoints 32-40F and wetbulb temperatures
~37-45F. With above- freezing vertical wetbulb profiles in the
lowest 1000-2500 ft AGL and a surface to 850 mb pattern
characterized by light easterly flow and little/no horizontal
thermal advection, rain is likely to be the primary (if not
sole) precipitation type east of Hwy 27. At relatively higher
elevations (> 3500 ft ASL) in eastern CO and extreme western KS,
where above-freezing wetbulb profiles will be shallower /
easier to `melt-out`, the presence of heavy and persistent
precipitation should be sufficient to affect a transition from
rain to wet snow tonight and early Wed morning. Confidence in a
rain=>snow transition and accumulating wet snow, in particular,
increases with elevation / western extent into Colorado. Snow
accumulation in this type of setup is typically a function of
precipitation rate/duration (i.e. if it falls and sticks faster
than it melts). Minimum surface temperatures/ wetbulbs during
rate-driven transitions from rain to snow are typically ~32-34F.
Wet snow will transition back to rain during the late morning
to early afternoon, as precipitation intensity decreases and
diurnal heating (attenuated, as it may be) increases.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

***Synopsis***

Upper-level troughing is forecast to be moving in overhead
Wednesday morning, with a slow-moving surface low pressure in
the Colorado Rockies. This low is favored to establish a zone of
convergence across Kansas Wednesday. As troughing moves off to
the east Thursday, a split flow pattern across the Western
United States looks to create northwesterly flow over the
forecast region. Ensemble guidance suggests the northwesterly
flow aloft could last through the end of the period. Several
shortwave systems may impact the forecast region during this
timeframe.

***Wednesday***

With upper-level troughing overhead on Wednesday, conditions
are expected to be climatically cooler, with highs as low as the
mid-30s across portions of Eastern Colorado. A Freeze Watch has
been issued for Wednesday night across the forecast region
except for Graham and Norton Counties in Kansas. Forecast and
NBM guidance suggests lows to be in the lower-20s to lower-30s.
In addition, the convergence zone across Kansas may be providing
precipitation throughout the day. LREF guidance is in favor of
little to no CAPE (instability) being present during this time
period. Rather, this activity is favored to be driven
synoptically by low-level convergence, mid- level warming, and
incoming cyclonic motion aloft. NBM 24 hr guidance suggests a
fair chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation across
the CWA Wednesday. Snowfall is also possible Wednesday with the
lower temperatures, potentially lasting through the evening
hours. Portions of Eastern Colorado have a 50% chance or higher
of 1 inch of snow or greater. Additionally, any snow that falls
across the region is anticipated to be wet and heavy snow.

***Thursday-Monday***

As the northwesterly flow establishes itself aloft Thursday,
warmer conditions appear favored to return. Current guidance
suggests that high temperatures will remain around the 70s
through the end of the period, though the shortwave systems
embedded in the flow aloft may allow high temperatures to
meander lower into the 60s, or higher into the 80s depending on
the timing of the shortwaves. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Thursday through Sunday as these systems traverse the
area, with LREF guidance suggesting a few hundred J/kg of CAPE
to be present each day. NBM 72 hr precipitation guidance
suggests that activity between Thursday and Saturday has a
chance of providing a total greater than 0.1 inches. Even so,
much of the precipitation that falls during this period is
forecast to be light rain, with perhaps some weak, localized
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

..Poor Aviation Weather Today and Tonight..

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR around
sunrise, with further deterioration to IFR by late morning. IFR
or borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings are expected this afternoon,
along with periods of light rain. Ceilings will further
deteriorate to LIFR-VLIFR late this afternoon or early this
evening and persist overnight, as moderate precipitation
develops/overspreads the region. Precip, initially rain, may mix
with and/or transition to wet snow overnight (06-12Z Wed), at
the end of the 12Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR around
sunrise. MVFR or borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected this
afternoon, along with periods of light rain. Ceilings will
further deteriorate to LIFR during the late aft-eve and persist
overnight, as moderate precipitation develops and overspreads
the region. At the McCook terminal, rain is expected to be the
primary (if not sole) precipitation type.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent