388
FXUS63 KGLD 020924
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing fog possible across Norton and Graham counties
  this morning.

- Increased fire danger is possible today as a cold front brings
  in winds from the northwest gusting 25-40 mph.

- Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast through the next week,
  except Wednesday which will be in the 40s and 50s.

- Chance for light wintry precipitation Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Early this morning, an 850 mb ridge will slowly be moving east, out
of the area with a fairly weak trough following. This is leading to
some mid and upper level clouds moving over the CWA from the west.
These clouds are helping keep temperatures from dropping too cold.
Unfortunately, these clouds will not spread across the bulk of the
area until around 12Z. This may allow patchy to locally dense
freezing fog to form in the eastern CWA. REFS guidance is showing
about a 50% chance of 1 mile visibility in freezing fog along and
east of U.S. 283 between 13-16Z, although may start as early as 9Z.
This could lead to some slick elevated surfaces this morning. Any
lingering fog is expected to lift by 17Z.

Today, around 15Z, a cold front will enter the northwestern CWA as
our next trough moves out of the northern Rockies. Between 15-19Z,
the front will push across the area. Between some early day-time
heating and pre-frontal compressional warming, temperatures are
expected to rise into the 50s and near 60, with the warmest
temperatures in the southeastern CWA. With the cold front, we are
expecting northwesterly winds to gust up around 25-30 kts, with a
couple 35 kts gusts being possible. There is a 2% chance eastern
Colorado will see brief and isolated critical fire weather
conditions, as the front hits. Behind the front, cooler temperatures
will keep RH values too high for fire weather criteria.

Tonight and through the day tomorrow, we`re in a bit of a lull,
before our next trough hits. Lows in the 20s followed by highs in
the low to mid 50s are forecast as cloud coverage increases tomorrow
afternoon.

Tomorrow evening, around 3Z, the next 500 mb trough pushes into the
area as does 850 mb moisture. This is expected to lead to light
precipitation across most of the area between 3-15Z Wednesday.
Likely (70% confidence), QPF will be less than 0.05." Generally this
amount of precipitation won`t cause any issues, however, there is a
5% chance part of the CWA could see this fall as freezing rain. Most
likely area to see this ice threat occur would be between KS 27 and
U.S. 283, along and north of U.S. 40. If freezing rain occurs,
expect rapid accumulation of ice on nearly all surfaces. However,
there is a greater than 90% chance this precipitation falls as a
rain/snow mix, becoming more snowy as the night progresses. This
will lead to a black ice threat Wednesday morning. Northwesterly
winds of 10-20 kts should help wick away a lot of the rain before it
can freeze, but the snow and sub-freezing temperatures has a 20-30%
chance of causing black ice formation Wednesday morning. Lows
Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the 20s across the CWA.

Precipitation would likely last the longest in areas along and east
of a line from Benkelman, NE to Oakley, KS with lingering
precipitation ending by 18Z Wednesday. Highs during the day are
expected to warm to around 50, allowing any frozen precipitation to
melt rather quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

The long term period is forecast to be unseasonable warm due to a
cycling pattern west of our county warning area (CWA). A persistent
ridge is in place over the Intermountain West region as two
different low pressure systems cycle through off the coast of Baja
California. This upper level pattern will usher in mostly clear and
sunny skies for the long term period. High temperatures for Thursday
are forecast in the 60s with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

A shortwave trough exits our region Thursday afternoon causing windy
conditions for the northwest portion of the CWA. Gusts from 30-35
mph are forecast, but if temperatures are cooler than expected,
winds will be overall milder. These higher wind gusts coincide with
relative humidity (RH) values falling below 20% for portions of Kit
Carson county. Grassland Fire Danger Index values are also between
25-30 for Kit Carson and Yuma counties Thursday afternoon. This
could create a brief window of near critical fire weather
conditions. Winds quickly back down after sunset and return to our
typical diurnal pattern.

Friday continues to be warm as the Rex blocking pattern west of our
region remains in place, maintaining northwest flow aloft and
suppressing precipitation chances. High temperatures are forecast in
the upper 50s-low 60s Friday through Sunday with lows in the upper
20s to low 30s. Fire weather conditions are currently minimal with
RH values forecast in the upper teens for our Colorado counties and
20-30s for the rest of the CWA. The persistent warm pattern we are
in could dry things out and further lower forecast RH values as the
week progresses, increasing critical fire weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 939 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

More pronounced southwesterly winds are forecast for GLD while
MCK remains light and variable through the remainder of the
overnight hours. VFR conditions are forecast to continue as
well. There is a less than 10% chance of some fog affecting
flight categories for MCK starting around 12Z. A cold front
moving through the area mid to late morning Monday is forecast
to lead to 25-30 knot wind gusts and a shift to more
northwesterly winds for each terminal with the potential for the
strongest lying at GLD. Winds are then forecast to wane as the
nocturnal inversion sets in during the late afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg