


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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714 FXUS63 KGLD 132314 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 514 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tonight has a better chance for showers (30-70% chance). Patches of dense fog may also form. - Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Wednesday could see the return of strong winds with gusts above 50 mph possible. - Potential for first frost or even freezes next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Satellite observations to continue to show moisture moving across the region from the southwest on the leading edge of the upper trough. This should keep the area under mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the day. With the colder air mass and cloud cover, temperatures should peak in the 60s this afternoon. A few showers may form and move through during the afternoon, favoring locales in the south where some low level moisture could move in and saturate the air enough for precip to make it to the ground. This evening and into tonight, persistent low level flow from the south/southeast is forecast to help saturate the lower levels. With the low level saturating and the southeasterly/upslope flow, fog should form and may be dense. Once more mid-level moisture surges in after midnight, more showers should develop which could interrupt the fog. This is why the forecast currently calls for patchy fog. The rain itself looks to be driven by diffluence in the higher levels, saturated air, and upglide as seen in isentropic analysis. With this, not currently expecting storms or heavy rain. Currently expecting around a trace to a quarter of an inch across most of the area, with the highest amounts favoring southern and eastern locales that should saturate first. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the upper 40s and 50s. Tomorrow, showers, drizzle and fog may continue through much of the day as the upper trough is forecast to be either stationary or shift slightly east. Along with that, the ridge in the south is forecast to amplify a bit, keeping the moisture flow likely over the area. Should this hold, a wet and cool day with temperatures in the 60s is forecast for most of the area. If the upper trough shifts a bit more to the east or if dry air can be ingested upstream, then the are could clear from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. In this case, precip would end quickly and temperatures would warm into the 70s. Winds in either scenario should be from the south at 10 to 25 mph, higher in Eastern Colorado which would be closer to the next surface low. Tomorrow night, there could be pockets of fog, but drier air is forecast to advect in near the surface overnight. Cloud cover should linger with the higher level moisture while winds remain roughly the same as they were during the day. Lows are forecast to drop down into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A potentially active extended period may be in store for the forecast area. Very good agreement on large scale troughing continues to be seen with guidance. As the trough moves towards the area Wednesday our 850mb and 700mb wind fields will steadily increase. GFS as usual remains the strongest with the 700mb jet but interestingly enough the 12Z run of the NAM shows some pockets of around 50 knot winds in the same layer. Would not be overly surprised if some localized wind gusts of around 60 mph may occur as well across eastern Colorado with mixing heights 4000-6000 feet AGL but currently am thinking that winds of that magnitude should be few and far between with the overall consensus wind gusts remaining 45- 55 mph from the south. Some blowing dust potential may be on the table as well with current thinking the relative worst conditions may lie along and west of the Kansas/Colorado line. A stout difference of mixing heights of around 3000 feet is seen from far western portions of our eastern Colorado counties towards the state line. Where mixing heights are highest GFS and NAM both show 2-2.5 lapse rates of 5-7 c/km mainly west of Highway 385. Overall would like to see winds a little bit stronger for dust concerns but looking at CoAgMet soil moisture data across the area is around 0.12-0.19 volumetric water content which is near the lower end of the spectrum. This area is also forecast to miss out on most if not all of the upcoming rainfall over the next 36 hours or so. With all of this said will include patchy dust wording into the forecast for this area. Dust potential further to the east is a bit more uncertain since winds are forecast to be a bit less and the upcoming rainfall may help to saturate the top layer of blowable soil. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to continue into Thursday with the strongest of the jet forecast to move further to the east. Main concern for Thursday will be developing showers and storms across western portions of the area. Strong synoptic lift is forecast to be present as well very strong jets in place from 700mb all the way to the 250mb level. This along with being tin the right entrance region of these jets also further increases my confidence in precipitation occurring. A 700mb frontogenesis boundary is also forecast to be set up across the area as well, although the exact location of this is still being resolved. Weak instability around 500 j/kg is seen along with meager mid level lapse rates. With the strong jets in place do have concerns of rainfall bringing down some of these winds to the surface but the meager lapse rates may lead to some mitigation of this. Am noticing however as well that the 12Z GFS is showing 3-7mb pressure rises over 3 hours from 21-03Z which may aid in the mixing process as well. Would like to see how this trends over the next few days before furthering concerns with this. Friday and through the weekend is forecast to be a bit more tranquil as the system from the previous days moves off to the northeast. A reinforcing bout of cold air is however forecast to move through during the weekend. An associated surface high is forecast to follow this front as well bringing in drier dew points and light winds. All of this combined may lead to the first frosts or even freezes for the area with the most likely areas being eastern Colorado at this time. Confidence in at least frost across eastern Colorado is around 60-70% with confidence in a light freeze around 30-40% and hard freeze around 10% at this time. Those with agricultural, livestock or even those with garden hoses still connected to home water spigots will want to keep up with the latest forecasts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 510 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Low ceilings will move into the area from the south this evening with MVFR flight categories by 06z at both KGLD and KMCK. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight to IFR with a chance for light rain showers towards 12z at both terminals. Areas of fog will also be possible. Showers should move out by late in the morning, but ceilings will be slow to lift, with IFR transitioning to MVFR by mid to late in the afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...024