052
FXUS63 KGLD 301815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1115 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light accumulating snow will develop over portions of the area
  tonight, mainly along and north of I-70 after midnight.

- Snow will end from west-to-east late Monday morning, between
  sunrise (west) and noon (east). Total snow accumulations
  ranging from a dusting to ~3", greatest east of Hwy 83. Light
  winds. Minimal impacts.

- Brief Warming/moderating trend on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Another cold day is forecast for today as the high pressure
system remains over the area for most of the day. Temperatures
should be in the teens and 20s with highs maxing out in the mid
to upper 20s. High level cloud cover is forecast to continue to
move over the area as we remain downstream of the next upper
trough, putting the area underneath mostly cloudy skies. Winds
are forecast to be lower for the area today with eastern
portions of the area forecast to have wind speeds around 10 mph.
Counties along the Colorado border are forecast to see slightly
stronger winds around 15-20 mph as a low pressure system
develops along the Southern Front Range ahead of the next
trough.

This evening and through the overnight hours, the upper trough
is forecast to begin pushing east into and through the area. As
it does so, it is forecast to push some saturated air through
the area while the surface low shift just southwest of the area.
This combined setup should allow some snow showers to form and
push through the area. With the system having a steady
progression, the snow showers should form in Eastern Colorado
and near the Tri-State border and push steadily east. However,
as the surface low also pushes east, locales along and east of a
line from Leoti, KS to Colby, KS to Trenton, NE are forecast to
be on the wrap around side of the low. This combined with more
saturated air is forecast to allow for greater snow residency
and some slightly stronger snow showers. While not enough for
any drastic differences, the western portion of the area is
forecast to see around a trace to half an inch of snow whereas
the aforementioned wrap around zone is forecast to see an inch
or two of snow. With ensembles still showing some discrepancy
with the progression of the trough, amounts could be half an
inch to an inch higher if the trough does pull west and keep the
wrap around zone further west. Even in this scenario, the
probability of seeing more than 3 inches of snow is 15%, so snow
amounts are not too concerning at this time. Thankfully, the
trough is forecast to be tilted and broad which is keeping both
the height gradients and the surface pressure gradient on the
weaker side. This should keep winds in the 5 to 15 mph range
with gusts to 25 mph, keeping the threat of blowing snow very
low. The main concern from a hazard perspective is the
possibility for dense fog in the aforementioned favored area. If
moisture is wrapping around and concentrating there, it
wouldn`t be unreasonable for dense fog to form. Lows overnight
are forecast to be in the teens again with the cold air mass
till mostly over the area.

Monday, the upper trough should finish swinging through the
area and push the moisture to the east. This will allow any
precipitation and dense fog to end during the morning hours,
with the cloud cover clearing during the remainder of the day.
As the trough does push the colder air east, some warmer air is
forecast to advect in from behind it and allow the area to warm
into the 30s as long as the sun does break through. Winds are
forecast to be in the 10 to 20 mph range as the high pressure
pushes east and lower pressure develops to the west.

Monday night, clear skies are forecast for most of the night
until some possible higher clouds push in with northwest flow
aloft. Winds near the surface are forecast to be fairly light
around 5 to 10 mph as we remain far between systems and the
pressure gradient weakens. Lows are forecast to drop into the
teens again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

A broad zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS this period
with a nearly stationary upper low anchored over eastern Canada.
A series of embedded shortwave troughs will bring some chances
for light snow. The first system will organize in the Four
Corners Wednesday then eject into the central plains Wednesday
night and Thursday. ECMWF ensemble average slightly more bullish
on snow amounts compared to the GFS and Canadian ensembles,
showing 1-2" with highest amounts in Colorado, while the other
ensembles showing less than 1" at this time. None of the models
showing much in the way of wind. Another shortwave could follow
for Friday night and Saturday, but models in rather poor
agreement at the present time leading to low confidence in the
details. However, it does look to be another progressive open
wave which typically produce light snow amounts, if any at all.
Temperatures will generally be near normal, with a slight cool
down on Wednesday and Thursday with the system moving through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings and MVFR-IFR visibilities assoc/w light snow are
expected late tonight and Monday morning (~08-15Z Mon). A
clearing trend will follow /VFR conditions will return/ during
the late morning and early afternoon. SSE to SE winds at 10-15
knots may increase to 15-20 knots for a period late this
afternoon. SSE to SE winds will weaken to 7-12 knots late this
evening and remain light overnight (perhaps becoming variable,
at times). Winds will shift to the NW and increase to 10-15
knots during the late morning and further increase to 15-20
knots during the afternoon.. at the very end of the 18Z TAF
period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening.
MVFR-IFR ceilings and MVFR-IFR visibilities assoc/w light snow
are expected tonight and Monday morning (~06-15Z Mon). A
clearing trend will follow /VFR conditions will return/ during
the late morning and early afternoon. Light/variable winds (this
afternoon) will shift to the ESE-SE at ~7-13 knots (this
evening).. gradually veer to the S (overnight).. then shift to
the SW or WSW late Monday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent