256
FXUS63 KGLD 020400
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Saturday with
  modest chances for precipitation (rain and snow) and below
  normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The Red Flag Warning that was in effect until 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) has been cancelled. The cold front has moved through the
warning area with relative humidity rapidly increasing above
critical levels. Will await some 00z model data for adjustments
in the forecast tonight through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Current observations show a broad upper trough across much of the
Western United States and High Plains, with a surface low in Eastern
Colorado. The low`s positioning has kept the winds in check through
the morning hours with winds generally below 15 mph for most of the
area. Winds did begin to pick up south of Highway 40 around 11am on
the south side of the low with gusts around 25-30 mph. This is
forecast to expand north and east as the low begins pushing over the
area and to the east.

We still are likely to see the dust and fire hazards, but the delay
has slightly lowered the forecast impacts and coverage. Dust looks
to be delayed now to around 2-6pm MDT and limited more to Highway 40
and south and Kit Carson county in Colorado. With mid-level lapse
rates still forecast to be steep in the daytime heating to around 9
C/KM, the chances for widespread blowing dust at or below a mile in
visibility is unlikely as the dust should mix out as it blows.
Source regions could still see sub-mile or brownout conditions, but
this would depend on local field conditions and which areas dried
out enough from recent precipitation.

In regards to the fire, still expecting RH to drop to around 15% for
most of the Red Flag counties with Graham and Norton being the
exceptions due to the persistent low cloud cover this morning. As
the winds pick up, Red Flag conditions should last from the early
afternoon to early evening hours as the sun begins to set.
Precipitation still looks to be unlikely for the Red Flag counties
as the lows track would keep the dry slot over these areas.

In regards to severe weather, chances remain on the low side as
drier air is still forecast to push through the area and keep storms
elevated. This should inhibit any tornadoes from forming short of maybe
a landspout. With downshear vectors around 80-100 kts and cloud
layer shear above 60 kts, storms are likely to be too sheared to
produce hail larger than an inch, and even that would require a
strong updraft. This would also limit the chance for landspout with
quick moving storms. While the winds aloft support strong wind
gusts, shallower storms and spotty coverage will likely keep wind
gusts around 60-65 mph with the potential for the wind gusts to
occur more with decaying showers on the wrap around side of the low
this evening instead of the elevated storms along the warm front and
dry line.

Tonight, the low is forecast to finish moving through the area and
begin to push off to the east. Through the evening and early morning
hours, wrap around rain and snow showers are possible, though
accumulations should be minimal as the low elongates and limits how
much moisture pulls through the area. Low levels are forecast to
also remain dry which would limit how much moisture could make it to
the surface. Winds are forecast to remain fairly steady through the
night as far as speeds go, generally around 15-20 mph with gusts of
25-30 mph. There could be some stronger gusts with any of the
showers, including a low chance for a 60 mph gust which tends to
happen with decaying showers. Winds will generally go from out of
the northwest to out of the southwest. Lows are forecast to
generally be in the 30s with some 20s in Eastern Colorado with the
cold air advection.

Tomorrow, the shortwave that brought the low through the area today
is forecast to continue to push off to the east while the broad
troughing remains over the Western United States. In between, some
upper level ridging is forecast to help keep the area a bit on the
dry side with a mix of clouds and sunshine. With the colder air
pushing in, temperatures will likely warm into the 50s with a few
60s closer to Central Kansas. Winds are forecast to remain around 15-
20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph, roughly from the west through most
of the day. As the low pressure moves further off, winds should
lower through the day from south to north. The lowering winds should
prevent us from reaching Rad Flag criteria as relative humidity is
forecast to be around 15% through much of the afternoon.

Tomorrow night, another low pressure system is forecast to move near
the area from the south with the continued troughing to our west.
Current forecast timing keeps the precipitation at bay until the
morning hours, with snow possible if the precipitation forms a bit
faster during late night hours. Temperatures should slowly cool to
around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The long term period remains forecast to have an active and
potentially wet start, with drier conditions more likely towards the
end of the period.

Thursday-Saturday is forecast to see the upper trough over the
Western United States remain in place Thu/Fri while likely digging
and amplifying south into Northern Mexico. The trough will then push
east around Saturday as the upper ridge over the east breaks down
slightly and another ridge/trough push into the west coast. Within
the bigger trough as it digs and rotates near the Four Corners
region, shortwaves and the main portion of the trough around the
US/Canada border are forecast to bring some lower pressure systems
near the area. The main area of lower pressure should remain over
the Southern United States, but the small waves should give us
chances for precipitation both Thursday and Friday. The further
north the lower pressure is, the greater the coverage and intensity
of the precipitation. While a cooler air mass is forecast to be in
place, daytime temperatures are forecast to generally be in the 40s
and 50s which would help keep precipitation as mostly rain. If the
precipitation fell overnight or while temperatures were in the mid
30s, then more snow would be likely and could lead to accumulations
around a few inches or greater. As a whole though, ensembles favor
more daytime rain or more moist profiles that keep precipitation as
rain except when it may be heavy enough to evaporatively cool the
air to allow for snow. So no hazards are currently expected, though
we`ll watch for the snow potential to increase. It is worth noting
as well that there are a couple of ensemble members that suggest the
upper trough will dig in further and faster, bringing in even more
cold air with the potential for lows over the weekend to drop into
the teens.

Sunday and into the beginning of next week are forecast to be dry as
a ridge moves over the area, pushing the moisture out and allowing
for some warm air advection from the south. Temperatures will likely
warm back into the 60s and 70s, with maybe some 80s if the next
trough does not push in too quickly. In does look like the middle
part of the week will likely see another system move through that
may cool us back off.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

KGLD...VFR conditions are anticipated through about 07z with
winds from the northwest around 12kts. From 08z-15z, sub VFR
cigs are forecast with northwest winds gusting up to 30kts.
There is also a chance for some rain showers in the 08z-11z
timeframe. From 16z-00z, VFR conditions return with northwest
winds gusting up to 35kts. After 01z, northwest winds around
10kts slowly decrease.

KMCK...VFR conditions are anticipated through about 09z with
northwest winds up to 11kts. From 10z-16z, sub VFR cigs are
expected with northwest winds gusting up to 30kts. There is a
chance for some rain showers in the 10z-13z timeframe as a
weather system moves through. From 17z-00z, VFR conditions
return with northwest winds gusting up to 35kts. After 01z,
northwest winds around 10kts slowly decrease.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99