482
FXUS63 KGLD 111707
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1007 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue.

- Warm temperatures return for one day only! Record highs
  possible Thursday.

- Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend,
  with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and
  milder temperatures in Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

The upper ridge axis that has been nearly stationary over the
western CONUS moves into the northern Rockies and amplifies by
Saturday, continuing the northwest flow downstream into the
central plains. The main storm track remains across the northern
plains and no precipitation is expected. After a mild day today
with highs around 70, another cold front will move through this
evening. The front looks to clear the area by 09z with light
northerly winds in its wake. Models do not show any fog and only
a few patchy low clouds across southwest Nebraska Friday
morning. Low temperatures will be in the 30s. High clouds
continue to stream across the area on Friday with high
temperatures mainly in the 40s, perhaps some lower 50s in
northeast Colorado, then dropping into the 20s for lows Friday
night. Another reinforcing surge of shallow cold air backs into
the area on Saturday with northeast winds by the afternoon. This
will result in a large temperature gradient across the area,
with high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in McCook and
Norton to around 60 in western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties
in Colorado. The cold air settles into the area Saturday night
with lows mainly in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Starting the extended period Sunday, a cooler air mass in wake of
cold front is forecast to be in place across the area with
temperatures in the single digits to mid teens across the area. GFS
suggests that fog/stratus may still remain in place as high low
level humidity is seen across the area via 00Z GFS cross
section analysis. Not seeing any low level omega leading me to
believe that any drizzle/freezing drizzle is not likely; but
with temperatures still below breezing will need to watch for
freezing fog potential. Guidance suggests that a trough will
move through the area at some point during the morning which
will shift winds to the southwest and start a warmup with
downsloping winds. There are discrepancies still within
guidance of that so if the trough is delayed then temperatures,
especially across the west may be 3-5 degrees cooler than
currently forecast. There continues to be a 25-30% chance that
Norton and Graham counties do not get above freezing for the day
and a 10-15% chance back towards the counties along of Highway
25. The 00Z ECMWF AIFS is in good agreement with around 90% of
its members showing the cooler air mass linger in place across
the area through the day leading towards the cooler
temperatures. To me that seems like the most reasonable scenario
especially if we do get the fog/stratus hanging around for the
day and the fact the colder air masses typically do end up
getting shunted further west than what guidance depicts, so I
have nudged temperatures down a few degrees to account for this.
There continues to be a 25-30% chance that Norton and Graham
counties do not get above freezing for the day and a 10-15%
chance back towards the counties along of Highway 25. There are
discrepancies still within the GEFS that the trough moves
through quicker warming temperatures more, if thats the case
then I may be to low on temperatures.

Into the new work week, split flow returns to the area resulting in
mild temperatures into the 50s and 60s to return again and our dry
conditions continuing. Confidence is pretty high in this
pattern occurring. There area few disturbance moving through
the area that may bring some wind gusts of 20-25 mph during the
afternoon so we may need to keep an eye on some fire weather
potential during this time frame as humidity values are already
forecast in the upper teens to low 20s with the lowest along
and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Current
probabilities are 20-25% chance of 25+ mph gusts across eastern
Colorado early Monday afternoon and increasing to 30-40% chance
across Kit Carson and Yuma county Tuesday from a weak
disturbance off of the Cheyenne Ridge. No precipitation is
expected through mid week with this dry air mass in place.

Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show a low pressure system
across the Plains with the 00z GFS across the northern
Plains/southern Canada and the ECWMF across central Nebraska.
The 00Z GEFS is further south a little closer to the ECMWF
which does bear some merit to the deterministic ECMWF. But
actually shows it being a little slower and closer to the
weekend than mid week. If the ECMWF is on to something then we
could potentially be looking at windy conditions and perhaps
some light precipitation potential towards the mid to latter
part of the week next week. If the system take a northerly track
then it will end up being more of a nuisance to nothing notable
for the region. Still with so much spread and this still being
a week out a lot can and will change and there are differences
with the 18 and 06Z runs of the strength of the ECMWF wind
field but still warrants watching.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 945 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail until Friday morning.
This afternoon, northwesterly winds will be gusting in the 20-30
kts range. A brief 35-40 kts gust cannot be ruled out around
19-22Z for both locations. Per usual, winds will weaken around
sunset.

Starting around 10-15Z Friday, ceilings will be lowering as
clouds from the north move in. By 13-15Z, both locations will
see cloud bases around 1,000-2,000 feet AGL, likely leading to
MVFR ceilings. GLD has a higher likelihood of MVFR ceilings than
KMCK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Thursday, we will be getting close to setting some high
temperature records across the area.

Location          Old Record  Year   Forecast High
Hill City, KS     72          1939   72
McCook, NE        66          2004   68
Burlington, CO    80          1939   71
Goodland, KS      77          1939   71

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...CA