687
FXUS63 KGLD 170718
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1218 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and gusts around 30 MPH are forecast
  today.

- Above normal temperatures continue into the mid-week.

- An active/unsettled weather pattern will return to the region
  by the end of the work week (Thu-Fri), when a complex storm
  system will bring precipitation to portions of the area
  possibly including a 15% chance for snow for some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1216 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

This morning, we are starting out with a 500 mb low moving over the
Rockies with a corresponding 850 mb low coming out of northern
Colorado. Combined with a ridge over the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley, we`ve had a strong LLJ this morning. Gusts ranging from 20
to 35 kts have been mixing to the surface overnight. As we get
closer to sunrise and the low moves eastward, the LLJ will push off
and gusts will gradually cease. Additionally, with the low, we could
see some light showers this morning, mainly in Yuma and bordering
counties, forced from the 500 mb vorticity.

Today, as the low sweeps through the CWA, expect a cold front to
move through and for winds to become northwesterly. While there is
not a lot of cold air behind the front, the northwesterly winds will
become gusty. Gusts of 20-30 kts are forecast today, but locations
along and south of U.S. 40 west of U.S. 83 could see some 35 kts
gusts. Temperatures will warm into the low 60s in the northwestern
CWA, and near 70 in the southeastern CWA. With these warmer
temperatures in the windier section, drier dew points may also mix
down and lower RH values to the mid teens. If this occurs, briefly
critical fire weather conditions are possible in Greeley and Wichita
counties this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, northwesterly winds will continue, but weaken.
Lows will drop into the mid 30s for most of the area, but eastern
Colorado could dip below freezing. We are forecasting the surface to
become saturated, but with northwesterly, downsloping winds, fog is
unlikely. There is a 5% chance the winds go calm and fog starts
forming, especially along and east of a line from Haigler, NE to
Gove, KS.

Tuesday, a weak 500 mb ridge will move over the Plains while an 850
mb high over eastern Colorado drives more northern air into the CWA.
Temperatures look to top out in the low 60s. Heavier cloud cover
will move in later in the day as the high moves off to the east. The
mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night will work to keep lows in the mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

The next upper low will move into the Texas panhandle on
Thursday with the associated precipitation shield moving
north, reaching the local area as early as Thursday afternoon
but more likely Thursday night. Some model discrepancies have
developed in today`s model runs. The GFS has shifted south in
the track of the low, moving it across southern Kansas, while
the ECMWF takes it on more of a northeast track into north
central Kansas. Both models show plenty of QPF, an inch or more
will be possible, mostly in the form of rain. The ECMWF, with
the more northerly track, still wants to change over to snow on
Friday, but the GFS does not. This system does not have much in
the way of cold air to work with and any changeover would
probably have to be rate-driven. Any potential accumulating snow
would also have warm antecedent ground temperatures, leading to
considerable melting on contact. Consequently, overall
confidence in measurable snow is low at this time. Any
precipitation looks to end Friday night as the low moves off to
the east. The weekend looks to be dry as ridging tries to
redevelop ahead of the next system approaching the southwest
CONUS. However, the ridge appears to be a bit weaker this time
around with a northwest flow component tapping into somewhat
cooler air. Weekend highs will be in the 50s with lows in the
20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for GLD through the
period. Until about 10Z, LLWS will be screaming just a few
hundred feet above the ground. Expect gusts around 25 kts to
mix to the surface, but this will become less common as we get
closer to 10Z. Around sunrise, a cold front will move through
the area, and throughout most of the day northwesterly winds
gusting up around 20-30 kts are forecast. Around sunset, winds
will weaken.

KMCK will see mostly VFR conditions, but the potential for MVFR
stratus this morning is slightly increasing. It currently looks
like the cloud deck will be around 1,500 feet AGL, but will be
scattered for the most part, with brief periods of broken
coverage between 12-15Z. LLWS will also impact KMCK until about
10-11Z, but persistent gusts are not expected to reach the
surface early this morning. Around 16Z, the cold front will hit
KMCK and winds will fairly quickly become northwesterly and be
gusting around 20-25 kts until 0Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL