761
FXUS63 KGLD 211926
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1226 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will end through the late afternoon and evening hours
  today.

- A 20% chance of fog across southwestern portions of the area.
  If fog can be persistent then some freezing fog is possible
  leading to slick elevated surfaces.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast around Sun/Mon.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1223 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low pressure system continues to push to the east and is slowly
ending the forcing resulting in lighter rain occurring and
eventually ending as the afternoon goes on before completely ending
this evening as isentropic lift across the east wanes. I did keep
some slight chance rain mention in for portions of eastern Colorado
as some straggling showers may be possible on the back end of the
low as it moves out as the RAP and NAM both suggest some lingering
850-770mb moisture in that area. Winds are forecast to become more
west-southwesterly this evening and overnight as overnight low
temperatures fall into the 30s across the area. Some guidance wants
to redevelop some low level moisture across Kit Carson, Cheyenne
(CO), Wallace, Greeley and Sherman counties Saturday morning. At
this time thinking should this occur stratus would be the main
concern but HREF visibility probabilities suggests there is a
10% chance of fog. Should this occur then freezing fog would
become a concern. Given the climatological unfavorable fog set
up with the west-southwest winds confidence is low in the fog
formation but have went ahead and added in patchy wording into
the forecast due to the newly saturated boundary layer and if
the winds can go light for long enough then a 20% chance of at
least patchy fog could be on the table.

Saturday, is forecast to see warmer temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s across the area as southwesterly winds continue
ahead of another trough across the SW CONUS. Some mid level
clouds are forecast to develop along with some weak omega in the
in the 850- 700mb level which may yield some sprinkles across
western portions of the area through the mid afternoon hours
before drier low level air moves in from the east. As the trough
continues to move towards the area moisture is again forecast
to increase leading to another potential for fog, this time
dense potential due to higher sfc-1km mixing ratio differences
especially across eastern portions of the area where winds are
forecast to become more variable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Starting the extended period Sunday, the trough ejects onto the High
Plains leading to breezy conditions during the day with winds
gusting 25-35 mph. Moisture is also forecast to increase as
well as the day goes on resulting in increasing clouds and
increasing rain chances. GEFS spread suggests that there is
potential that a weak cyclogenesis with this trough can set up
a little further west which would lead to more rainfall
initially but would set up dry slotting scenario which would
reduce the potential for another long widespread duration
rainfall event. At this time it appears that a few tenths of an
inch at best will be the most likely outcome with this next
round of rainfall.

Monday, a clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to
send a cold front into the area during the late afternoon/early
evening. Ahead of that however gusty to perhaps strong winds may be
possible but will be dependent on how the previous day low ejects
out. GEFS and the deterministic 06 and 12Z GFS wants to bring it
into north central Kansas/south central Nebraska which would
increase the wind field from a mountain wave off of the Cheyenne
Ridge. ECWMF ensembles and the 06Z deterministic ECMWF make it more
broad across southern Kansas leading to mainly breezy winds but
nothing out of the norm for the High Plains. The Canadian ensembles
are split between the two solutions. If the GFS is correct then wind
gusts of 45-55 mph along with the potential for some 60-65 mph gusts
may be on the table with perhaps some blowing dust as well with
mixing heights of 3500-4000 feet throughout the day and unstable 0-
2km lapse rates around 9-9.5 c/km. At this time am leading to a
blend of the two which is similar to the NAEFS Mean currently
which would support mainly a nuisance wind day and little
threat for dust. There is however the spread of the positioning
of the 500mb low as well seen in that so will need to keep an
eye on this potential.

As mentioned, a cold front is forecast to move through Monday
night into Tuesday with northwest synoptic flow continuing for
the area before a return to near normal temperatures Wednesday
into Thanksgiving Day. With the front it appears that a single
night of below normal temperatures is forecast Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as temperatures fall into the teens.
Cloud cover may help prevent optimal radiational cooling
potential which would lead to low temperatures in the low teens
to perhaps even some spotty single digits.

Late week and into next weekend guidance continues to suggest a
stronger cold front may move through the area leading to a period of
below to well below normal temperatures. However not all ensemble
members are on board with this cold air according to the 12Z ECMWF
and 12Z GEFS with the front being more delayed into the first week
of December. Continue to keep up to the date with the latest
forecast especially with the upcoming holiday and travel week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 950 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Stratus and light rain continues across the area and should do
so through the remainder of the afternoon before conditions
gradually improve as the afternoon goes on. VFR conditions are
forecast to return to both terminals around 02Z with MCK
forecast to occur first as drier air begins to work in. Winds
are also forecast to become more westerly as well this evening
and through the end of the period. There is a 5-10% chance of
additional fog or stratus resulting in IFR or less conditions
Saturday morning. Due to the west winds confidence is lower on
this occurring however.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg