406
FXUS63 KGLD 060746
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler (albeit closer to normal) temperatures are expected on
  Monday, with highs in the low 50s.

- Dense fog could develop over portions of the area Monday night
  (if cloud cover thins-out). If cloud cover thins-out and fog
  does not develop, some potential for frost may exist over
  northern portions of the area Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Today: Low-level cold advection has deposited a much cooler
airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures ~5C) over the
region this morning. At 0630 UTC, surface temperatures ranged
from the lower 40`s (Yuma) to the mid 50`s (Leoti/Hill City).
Ongoing elevated showers/storms along and north of I-70 --
assoc/w mid-level warm advection on the eastern periphery of a
progressive shortwave (located over north-central/northwest CO
at 06 UTC, per SPC Mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) -- will
abate by sunrise (~09-12 UTC Mon) as the aforementioned
shortwave and accompanying mid-level warm advection lift
northeastward across southern Wyoming the Nebraska Panhandle. In
the wake of the upper wave.. additional precipitation is not
expected. Ongoing low-level cold advection will weaken
throughout the day as surface high pressure in the lee of the
northern Rockies progresses southward over SD-NE. With pervasive
stratus and weakening horizontal thermal advection.. the
cool/moist, homogenous low-level airmass in place over the Tri-
State area will tend to resist modification. Expect overcast
skies and an atypically small diurnal temperature range with
highs in the lower-mid 50`s.

Tonight: Surface high pressure will settle southward over
central Nebraska/Kansas this evening and overnight. A fair
amount of uncertainty exists with regard to the depth and areal
extent of low stratus over the region in this period. The
shallowest portion of the residual cool/moist airmass will be
located over northern portions of the area (e.g. southwest
Nebraska) and at higher elevations (e.g. Kit Carson/Cheyenne,
CO). These locations, in particular, are more likely to
experience radiational cooling and (potentially) dense fog
development (and/or, somewhat ironically, stratus
redevelopment). If cloud cover thins and fog/stratus does *not*
develop.. northern portions of the area could see low
temperatures in the mid-upper 30`s and some potential for frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Surface high remains in place to start the extended period on
Tuesday leading to tranquil conditions across the area as
seasonal temperatures continue currently forecast in the low
60s. Mid week ridging across the southern Plains amplifies
leading to another round of above normal temperatures with highs
in the 80s. Some breezier winds may develop with a surface
trough mid week which may bring some fire weather concerns but
at this time no significant concerns.

Latter portion of the week and into next weekend GFS and ECMWF
both show another large trough developing across western
portions of the CONUS which may lead to another active pattern
for the area. The pattern looks to be similar to what occurred
yesterday with a slightly further south surface low. Wind and
perhaps some fire weather at this time would perhaps be the main
threats but exact details are murky at this range but the
pattern needs to be monitored through the next few days for
further trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

GLD: ~10-17 knot NE winds will prevail throughout the TAF
period. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate to MVFR
(overnight) and IFR (early Monday morning) as stratus develops
over the region. Elevated showers (perhaps a storm) are possible
over portions of northeast CO and northwest KS between midnight
and sunrise (~06-12Z Mon).. mainly north of the Goodland
terminal (near the CO-KS-NE border). While some improvement (to
MVFR) is expected late this morning into this afternoon, low
overcast will likely persist through the remainder of the TAF
period.

MCK: 8-15 knot NNE-NE winds will prevail throughout the TAF
period. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate to MVFR
overnight as stratus develops over the region. IFR conditions
are possible a few hours on either side of sunrise.. when
elevated showers (perhaps a storm) may develop over northwest KS
and southwest NE. While some improvement is possible during the
afternoon.. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent