508
FXUS63 KGLD 301107
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
407 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s today and 30s
  tomorrow. Lows are forecast to be in the single digits and
  teens.

- Snow is forecast to move through the area tonight. Most of the
  area should see less than an inch of snow, but locales
  generally east of Highway 27 could see one to two inches.

- Dense fog is possible tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Another cold day is forecast for today as the high pressure system
remains over the area for most of the day. Temperatures should be in
the teens and 20s with highs maxing out in the mid to upper 20s.
High level cloud cover is forecast to continue to move over the area
as we remain downstream of the next upper trough, putting the area
underneath mostly cloudy skies. Winds are forecast to be lower for
the area today with eastern portions of the area forecast to have
wind speeds around 10 mph. Counties along the Colorado border are
forecast to see slightly stronger winds around 15-20 mph as a low
pressure system develops along the Southern Front Range ahead of the
next trough.

This evening and through the overnight hours, the upper trough is
forecast to begin pushing east into and through the area. As it does
so, it is forecast to push some saturated air through the area while
the surface low shift just southwest of the area. This combined
setup should allow some snow showers to form and push through the
area. With the system having a steady progression, the snow showers
should form in Eastern Colorado and near the Tri-State border and
push steadily east. However, as the surface low also pushes east,
locales along and east of a line from Leoti, KS to Colby, KS to
Trenton, NE are forecast to be on the wrap around side of the low.
This combined with more saturated air is forecast to allow for
greater snow residency and some slightly stronger snow showers.
While not enough for any drastic differences, the western portion of
the area is forecast to see around a trace to half an inch of snow
whereas the aforementioned wrap around zone is forecast to see an
inch or two of snow. With ensembles still showing some discrepancy
with the progression of the trough, amounts could be half an inch to
an inch higher if the trough does pull west and keep the wrap around
zone further west. Even in this scenario, the probability of seeing
more than 3 inches of snow is 15%, so snow amounts are not too
concerning at this time. Thankfully, the trough is forecast to be
tilted and broad which is keeping both the height gradients and the
surface pressure gradient on the weaker side. This should keep winds
in the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts to 25 mph, keeping the threat of
blowing snow very low. The main concern from a hazard perspective is
the possibility for dense fog in the aforementioned favored area. If
moisture is wrapping around and concentrating there, it wouldn`t be
unreasonable for dense fog to form. Lows overnight are forecast to
be in the teens again with the cold air mass till mostly over the
area.

Monday, the upper trough should finish swinging through the area and
push the moisture to the east. This will allow any precipitation and
dense fog to end during the morning hours, with the cloud cover
clearing during the remainder of the day. As the trough does push
the colder air east, some warmer air is forecast to advect in from
behind it and allow the area to warm into the 30s as long as the sun
does break through. Winds are forecast to be in the 10 to 20 mph
range as the high pressure pushes east and lower pressure develops
to the west.

Monday night, clear skies are forecast for most of the night until
some possible higher clouds push in with northwest flow aloft. Winds
near the surface are forecast to be fairly light around 5 to 10 mph
as we remain far between systems and the pressure gradient weakens.
Lows are forecast to drop into the teens again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

A broad zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS this period
with a nearly stationary upper low anchored over eastern
Canada. A series of embedded shortwave troughs will bring some
chances for light snow. The first system will organize in the
Four Corners Wednesday then eject into the central plains
Wednesday night and Thursday. ECMWF ensemble average slightly
more bullish on snow amounts compared to the GFS and Canadian
ensembles, showing 1-2" with highest amounts in Colorado, while
the other ensembles showing less than 1" at this time. None of
the models showing much in the way of wind. Another shortwave
could follow for Friday night and Saturday, but models in rather
poor agreement at the present time leading to low confidence in
the details. However, it does look to be another progressive
open wave which typically produce light snow amounts, if any at
all. Temperatures will generally be near normal, with a slight
cool down on Wednesday and Thursday with the system moving
through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through 03Z.
Higher level cloud cover around 7500-12500 is forecast through
the day. Winds are forecast to start light and variable, before
becoming more steady from the southeast as the day progresses.
Around 03Z, snow showers are forecast to develop and move
through the area. Accumulations are forecast to be below a few
inches, but be alert for pockets of very low visibility. Fog is
also forecast to develop as low level moisture moves through the
area. While currently forecast to be around 2-5SM, dense fog
around one quarter of a mile is possible, especially closer to
12Z. Ceilings should also lower to be more around 1000-2000ft.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK