958
FXUS63 KGLD 260521
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog expected overnight into Saturday morning, with some areas
  seeing dense fog with low visibility, impacting travel.

- Marginal risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon.

- Potential fire weather concerns across eastern Colorado Sunday
  afternoon and south of Interstate 70 Monday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Fog and drizzle continue to be the main story through the
overnight and into much of Saturday. Scattered light showers
will also be moving through from the southwest, which along
with winds of 10-15 kts may be preventing the fog from becoming
dense. However, models insist on widespread dense fog forming at
some point overnight over western 2/3rds of the area and
continuing through Saturday morning. So far that has been
overdone, but will continue to monitor for any potential
advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Across the region this afternoon, skies remain cloudy as the
area remains dominated by a strong surface ridge. As of 100 PM
MT, temperatures are ranging only in the 40s on northeast winds.
Patchy fog is still prevalent in western locales.

The main weather concerns for the short term period are going
to focus on the threat for fog area-wide tonight into Saturday
morning, showers and storms tonight and this weekend. Storms on
Sunday have the potential to become severe. There is also a
chance for near critical to critical fire wx conditions in
portions of northeast Colorado.

For this afternoon into Saturday, guidance will begin to shift
the ridge north of the CWA to the east overnight into Saturday,
setting up a southerly moist flow during the day. First off
though will be the return of some potentially dense fog as the
ridge retreats east. A front over the central Rockies will work
east in tandem with a weak 500/700mb shortwave tonight, bringing
rw/trw chances to the area as well. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP
and NamNest) are showing scattered coverage into Saturday. This
scenario could be slowed some by the blanket of low cloud
inhibiting daytime warmth/instability.

A tight 1-2 degree T/Td spread is going to persist and
visibility guidance is fairly consistent showing increased
coverage of fog along the nose of the ridge in the area. This
will mix into the expected precip. There is the potential for a
DFA(Dense Fog Advisory) later tonight as some areas could see a
mile or less at times.

Going into Saturday, guidance keeps the fog potential through
the morning hours, but will give way to rw/trw chances (40-80%)
during this 24 hour period. A lee-side trough/front sets up
through the day, helping to funnel low level moisture into the
CWA. This system west will begin to move east through the day,
putting highest chances for precip in the east. A second
shortwave overnight will help to enhance precip chances area-
wide, with enough instability to mention thunder.

For Sunday-Sunday night, with a surface-850 trough in the west
and a blocking ridge east, a tight southerly gradient will
ensue, with the potential for gusts to reach at least 30-40 mph.
The system west will push east through the day, and with 850mb
temps ranging around +20c to +24c, above normal, dry conditions
are expected. This will put the focus for rw/trw in the east but
is dependent on the positioning of the front/trough. Severe
parameters are being met for a portion of the CWA on Sunday,
prompting a marginal risk for severe storms.

Depending on how fast the warmer and drier air works in from
the west sunday afternoon, western portions of Kit
Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado could be under near
critical/critical fire wx conditions. For now, areal coverage
does not met criteria for a Fire Wx Watch.

For temps, looking for a cool day on Saturday for highs with
upper 50s to low 60s expected, cooler in the east due to
expected cloud cover/rain. Going into Sunday, much warmer with
upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the upper 30s into the mid 40s. Saturday night, mid 40s to
mid 50s and for Sunday night, a wide range is expected with low
40s east giving way to mid 50s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show a 500mb trough swinging
east through north central Plains Monday-Monday night. Front
swinging through as well will trigger a 20-30% chance for rw/trw
mainly north of I-70. Upper ridge build over the region for
Tuesday, providing drier and cooler conditions to the region.
For next Wednesday onward, guidance does split as to the timing
of the next system through the area, with the GFS a bit faster
for Wednesday-Thursday, while the ECMWF carries the system
through the region on Thursday. The passage of this system will
bring a round of rw/trw. The NBM currently favors the GFS w/
highest pops in the 40-60% range, tapering to 20-30% on
Thursday. Amplified 500mb ridge works east of the Rockies for
Friday. A lee side trough sets up late in the day, allowing for
increased low level moisture and thus rain chances.

For temps, highs on Monday will range around 70-80F. There is a
west to east gradient on this day, with warmest areas east of a
line from Oberlin, Kansas southwest to Tribune, Kansas. Going
into Tuesday, mid to upper 60s expected. 70s return for
Wednesday only to drop back to 60s and 70s for Thursday and then
a bounce back to the 70s for next Friday. Overnight lows for
Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday nights will be in the 40s, warmest
east. For Monday and Thursday nights, upper 30s west into the
lower 40s east. Some locales in northeast Colorado could see
wind chill readings into the upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

At KGLD, IFR will prevail with occasional VLIFR through the
overnight and Saturday morning period due to fog, drizzle and
low ceilings. Little improvement is expected on Saturday with
the persistent moist southeast flow at the surface. At KMCK,
MVFR initially will give way to IFR during the overnight as
ceilings lower. Fog and drizzle are less likely there, but some
minor visibility reductions will still occur with passing
showers and misty conditions. As with KGLD, little improvement
is expected on Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024