625
FXUS63 KGLD 052315
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with slight
  cool down Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday and
  Monday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 412 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon in eastern
Colorado with a weak disturbance moving through the southwest
flow aloft. They will move northeast with the mean flow this
evening. Latest CAMs show a cluster of storms in far northeast
Colorado which moves into the Nebraska panhandle this evening.
Convection south of the main cluster is more isolated but will be
moving into the area this evening. MLCAPE will be 1500-2000 j/kg
and deep layer shear around 30 kts north of Interstate 70 but
lower south. Storms will be relatively high-based and in a
favorable DCAPE environment promoting a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Conditions also appear marginally favorable for blowing
dust and localized dust storms, but confidence is low in that
hazard. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with slow
storm motions, but that threat will be greatest with the main
cluster which may end up north of the area. Storm chances will
continue through the overnight hours as they slowly move east, but
with a diminishing severe threat as the boundary layer cools and
DCAPE gradually weakens. Precipitation chances may linger into
Sunday morning east of Highway 83 before finally moving out.

Southwest flow continues on Sunday around the amplified ridge over
the plains. CAMs show convective initiation occurring along the
Front Range of northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming late in the
afternoon. They show little if any convection further east over
the plains. Mean storm motions will take the Front Range
convection northeast into the Nebraska panhandle. Instability and
shear remain weak, but DCAPE around 1500 j/kg will once again be
favorable for damaging wind gusts. Best chances will be in the
Tri-Border area in the evening hours, but confidence is low given
where the storms initiate and expected motion that they will reach
that area at all.

A strong system moving through the Northern Rockies on Monday will
result in falling heights and a modest increase in flow as far
south as Colorado. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to develop in the afternoon in northeast Colorado.
While instability is forecast to be rather weak, generally less
than 1000 j/kg, deep layer shear in Colorado will be 30-40 kts.
The increased shear will promote more organized and long-lived
updrafts as they move across the area Monday night. Main hazard
will once again be wind, but may see a hail threat in the
afternoon or early evening with any discrete cell that develops
far enough east to take advantage of somewhat better instability
in the Kansas/Colorado border area.

On Tuesday, the ridge flattens as another strong shortwave moves
through the Northern Plains around the upper low in Canada. Due
to the increased flow aloft deep layer shear will range from 30-40
kts, highest in Nebraska. A surface front associated with the
shortwave is forecast to sag into the area and will be a favored
area for convective initiation, however at this time range
difficult to say exactly where it will end up. Instability axis
will be located along/north of the frontal boundary, but currently
appears weak at around 500-1000 j/kg. Nonetheless, with the
increase in deep layer shear would expect a corresponding increase
in the severe threat for wind and hail, though it may be limited
somewhat by the weak instability.

Temperatures remain above normal through Monday under the ridge,
followed by less hot temperatures on Tuesday, highly dependent on
where the front eventually ends up. Highs north of the front will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but remain in the upper 90s
ahead of it.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A modest 60-75 kt jet streak at 500-mb looks to be located north
and east of the forecast region Wednesday morning, as a trough
sweeps through the Great Lakes Region. A surface low in the right
entrance region of this upper-level jet would be favored just to
the south of the area, providing northerly surface winds at the
start of the morning. These winds may gradually shift out of the
east throughout the day as a surface high moves east across the
Northern Plains. Even so, forecast highs are currently in the mid
80s to lower 90s, slightly cooler than recent days. Highs could be
hotter if the surface low does not develop as far south as
current guidance shows, or if the northerly to easterly winds
throughout the day are on the lighter side, allowing solar heating
to play a more prominent role in the high temperatures. This is
represented in the NBM 75th percentile temperatures, which reach
into the mid and upper 90s across southern portions of the County
Warning Area (CWA). There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Wednesday evening, and possibly lasting
into the overnight hours. Forecast guidance shows PoPs
(probability of precipitation) in the 20s and 30s across most of
the area during this period. However, NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance shows a 1 in 3 chance or less of receiving greater than
0.1 inches of rain for all areas in the CWA. The likelihood that
any storm becomes severe Wednesday evening is low, as LREF
guidance shows less than a 40% chance across the entire area that
sfc-500mb shear will exceed 30 kts. The best opportunity for
severe storms would be across portions of Southwest Nebraska,
where these probabilities are in the 30s. Even so, confidence that
severe weather occurs anywhere in the area Wednesday is 5% or
less at this time.

By Thursday morning, troughing is favored to be off to the west, as
ridging begins to move in overhead. Surface winds look to be out
of the south during this period, helping highs to stay in the
lower 90s across the area. Chances for precipitation begin to
decrease as well, with PoPs below 20% throughout the entire day.
If storms are able to develop, they would most likely be
associated with convergence across eastern parts of the area, or
from storms moving into portions of Eastern Colorado from the
Front Range. LREF guidance shows slightly better probabilities for
sfc-500mb wind shear greater than 30 kts as opposed to Wednesday,
but still under 50% across the forecast area. Once again,
confidence that severe weather occurs in the area Thursday is 5%
or less.

Forecast guidance begins to diverge on Friday. Ensemble guidance
seems to have the most confidence in a deep, longwave trough forming
across the Northeast. This could support an active weather pattern,
with multiple shortwave systems traversing the forecast area.
Depending on the timing of these shortwave features, high
temperatures between the mid 80s and upper 90s could be expected.
The higher end of this range would be more likely if the forecast
region were along the leading edge of a shortwave trough during
the afternoon, providing sufficient southwesterly flow for warmer
conditions. However, if a shortwave trough is directly overhead
during the afternoon, conditions may be cooler. Precipitation
continues to look unlikely during this period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Main aviation concern will be the potential for thunderstorms
later tonight and into the overnight hours. Storms in northeast
Colorado this evening are mainly moving northeast into Nebraska,
but with time they may work their way into the area from the
north. If that occurs, and confidence is on the low side, they
would be accompanied by gusty winds and potentially heavy
rainfall. Outflow from those storms could also result in
easterly winds and the potential for low clouds and patchy fog
through Sunday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024