162
FXUS63 KGLD 042324
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another day of breezy winds with gusts around 35-50 mph
  today.

- Chances for precipitation start Monday evening, continues off
  and on through the week.

- Elevated fire weather risks return Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Throughout the day, we keep our northwesterly flow in the low levels
as a high at 850 mb exits southeastern Colorado to the southeast.
This will work to keep temperatures in the 60s as northwesterly
winds gust up around 25-35 kts, with occasional gusts up to 40-45
kts. The maximum gusts will decrease by 5-10 kts by the mid
afternoon as the high moves farther away. RH values look to remain
in the upper teens, limiting any critical fire weather concerns.

Temperatures tonight look to be a repeat of Friday night, or a few
degrees cooler. There is a 40% chance temperatures drop into the low
20s as winds become calm and the clouds clear out. In this case, we
could easily see patchy freezing fog along and north of U.S. 36
early Sunday morning. This may lead to slick conditions, as well as
reduced visibility. With the cold temperatures tonight, any budding
or blooming vegetation may be damaged from the cold temperatures.

Sunday looks to warm to around 70 with winds looking to remain under
20 kts, limiting the fire weather threat. Overnight temperatures
look to be slightly warmer, cooling into the 30s. Monday, a
stationary low over Colorado will cause easterly moisture advection,
and keep temperatures capped in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

We start to see chances for precipitation return overnight Monday
into Tuesday. A split upper level flow is present west of the
region. As it propogate east, a few embedded shortwaves will
traverse through our region increasing chances for precipitation.
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 15-35% increasing
from east to west. Rain is expected based on forecast temperatures,
but areas that drop below freezing could see a wintry mix. Beginning
Tuesday morning, PoPs increase from 25-55% for the entire county
warning area (CWA). Precipitation is expected to exit the area early
Wednesday.

Models have begun to align on the jet stream position near our
region for Wednesday, the GFS and ECMWF are both showing the Polar
and Sub-Tropical jet merge just north of our region. There is still
significant disagreement on the track and intensity of a low
pressure system along the US/Canadian border. GFS and ECMWF members
forecast the center of the low anywhere from the US/Canadian border
to as far south as central Nebraska. This, along with a cold frontal
passage overnight Wednesday into Thursday, will determine our
precipitation chances. MUCAPE is present in the east CWA area
beginning Wednesday evening, so there is low potential for weak
thunderstorms.

Conditions cool Thursday in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Highs temperatures are forecast in the 60s. Our region is in a
predominantly zonal flow with a developing low off the coast of Baja
California. There is continued chance for precipitation for the
region with PoPs ranging from 20-40% throughout the day. MUCAPE
remains in the region increasing confidence in thunderstorm
development.

As the low of the coast of Baja California propagates towards our
region, potential for precipitation increases starting Thursday
evening and continues throughout the weekend. PoPs range from 40-70%
increasing west to east. Rain is the expected precipitation type
based on forecast temperatures. MUCAPE over the region Friday
increases confidence that our region could see thunderstorms along
with the precipitation. Low confidence on exact hazards since this
is the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds will become
light by 1z. During the night the winds should be predominately
from the west. This will continue until the afternoon when the
wind direction becomes more variable with the surface high
exiting and a surface low moving in from the west.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...JTL