063
FXUS63 KGLD 051112
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild Easter Day with highs around 70 and wind below 15 mph.

- Chances for precipitation start Monday evening, continues off
  and on through the week. Best chances are currently forecast
  towards the end of the week.

- Elevated fire weather risks return Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The short term is forecast to be fairly mild as the area remains
under northwest flow both today and tomorrow. Highs are forecast to
be in the 60s and 70s, while lows remain a bit on the cool side in
the 20s and 30s. For Easter Sunday, winds are forecast to be light
for most of the area with a broad area of high pressure across the
region. Counties along the Colorado border are forecast to see winds
reach about 10-15 mph from the southwest as low pressure begins to
build along the Front Range. Monday, winds should be a bit stronger
as the surface low shifts south and deepens while the high pressure
over the Plains is reinforced. This is forecast to cause winds to
increase to around 15-25 mph from the east with gusts up to 35-40
mph. For now, the colder air associated with the high pressure is
forecast to hold over the area and keep relative humidity in the
upper teens and 20s. This should prohibit the area from seeing
critical fire weather conditions. Ensembles don`t show much
variability with the upper trough that is pushing through and
leading to this setup, so the area isn`t likely to see any changes
that would lead to worse conditions.

No precipitation is forecast for either Sunday and Monday with the
dry air forecast to hold in place over the area. As such, either
clear or partly cloudy skies are forecast both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tuesday through the rest of the week is forecast to be somewhat
active as split flow gives way to multiple troughs/waves pushing
through the Plains. With the forecast calling for multiple waves,
temperatures are forecast to be some what stable with highs in the
60s and 70s. Neither a deep trough or redeveloping ridge are forecast
which should limit how much our temperatures swing. The one thing
that could impact temperatures and keep us a bit cooler is if
precipitation is able to form with these waves. We currently have
chances through many days of the week. That being said, most chances
are less than 30% due to both high uncertainty and dry air forecast
to be persistent near the surface.

In regards to the uncertainty, the first major trough that is
forecast to push through around Wednesday has quite the 500mb spread
on ensembles. The difference is whether it pushes through as a
faster, more concentrated system or pulls back and leads to our
upstream flow being more broad and persistent troughing. In the
faster solution, precipitation chances would be a bit higher with
better synoptic forcing and temperatures may favor the cooler side
with a better chance for an organized shot of cold air. In the
broader solution, the mid-week would still have precipitation
chances, but weaker and broader forcing wouldn`t likely amount to
much with dry air near the surface. The GEFS is more 50/50 split
while the European ensemble favors the faster solution. For now, am
leaving the higher precipitation chances Wednesday into Thursday,
though I fear we`ll be drier given how the season has gone so far.
We could also then see some elevated to potentially critical fire
weather conditions if the drier solution does pan out.

The end of the week and into the weekend is forecast to see an
increase in precipitation chances as the next major waves are
forecast to develop as upper lows over the Baja Peninsula and
Northwestern CONUS. This would develop broad low pressure along the
High and Northern Plains. With this, the area would shift to lower
level flow from the south/southeast. Between this providing some
moisture advection, any precipitation we get prior will help moisten
the low levels. This would allow these systems to have a better
chance of producing rain for the area with less dry air to overcome.
The biggest issue/uncertainty is the northern upper low. If it
becomes more backed or slower as some ensemble spreads are
suggesting, this could lead to a disjointed system moving through
over the weekend. The issue is that the Baja low would probably
track too far south similar to earlier systems this season to
provide the area with precipitation. Whereas a combined system would
track the low across most of the Plains and help bring forcing to
the area without completely cutting off the moisture supply. Snow
may mix in at night as temperatures potentially lower to near
freezing, but little to no accumulation is forecast with prevailing
warm conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with either clear skies or high clouds above 10000ft.
Winds are forecast to remain below 10 kts through the period.
The morning hours are forecast to have winds from the west, that
then shift through the remainder of the day to the
south/southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK