112
FXUS63 KGLD 021215 CCA
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
615 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Reductions in visibility due to smoke from fires in Utah and
  Arizona is forecast to linger through the mid morning hours
  before moving out of the area.

- Strong to severe storms are forecast again this afternoon and
  evening favoring locations along and west of a Trenton to
  Leoti line. Large hail and damaging winds are again the
  primary threats.

- Severe storms potential continues Sunday and Monday but appear
  to be more isolated in nature, but higher potential for
  supercells.

- Gradual warm up through Monday, then hot and mostly dry for
  Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 452 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Have added in some patchy fog across western portions of Kit
Carson and Cheyenne (CO). Nighttime microphysics shows an area
of developing stratus draped from Limon to roughly the town of
Kit Carson. Winds across this area area are light and from the
southeast so based on climatology should favor the relative
better potential for fog formation through 14Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Aug 2
2025

Showers and storms continue across eastern portions of the area and
are forecast to be out of the forecast area around 10-12Z. Out ahead
of the showers reduction in visibility due to smoke from fires
emanating from Utah and Arizona is dropping visibilities down to as
low as 3SM as the KHLC ASOS is reporting this. The RRFS near surface
smoke is handling the location of this better than the HRRR near
surface smoke so have added in areas of smoke through 14Z, as this
is the time that the RRFS has any reductions in visibilities moving
out of the forecast area.

Today, looks to be a near similar day to what was experienced
on Friday as a surface high remains across the southwestern
CONUS and the area remains in northwest flow. Winds are forecast
to become breezy again but more so from the south at 15-20 mph
with gusts of 25- 30 mph during the afternoon. A developing
surface low near the Palmer Divide and coinciding with a
shortwave off the mountains looks to be the source for storm
activity again. Am thinking that the severe threat will be a
little higher than Friday for the forecast area and perhaps a
bit more widespread as well. Due to the proximity of the low
wind shear is forecast to be on the range of 35- 45 knots along
with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg would support the potential for
supercell structures. NAM and RAP forecast soundings do show a
cap around 700mb but think that the combination of the lift and
convective temperature should be enough to overcome this. The
main hazards with today`s activity appear to be hail up to
tennis balls especially with any discrete cells that form
initially. Similar to yesterday as well do think storms will
eventually cluster together and lead to more of a wind threat as
storms move to the ESE. Due to the wind shear in place some
embedded supercells may also be possible as well. Start time for
storms does look to be a little earlier than Friday starting as
early as 3pm MT and persisting through the evening.

Overnight and into Sunday morning, have noticed that ensemble
members have trended towards another round of showers and storms
which looks to be triggered by yet another shortwave and
isentropic ascent. A handful of guidance does show a corridor
heavy rain of 1-3 inches in place as PWATS recover to around
1.2-1.5 inches across the area. At this time am not overly
confident in those amounts unless backbuilding of storms were to
occur since Corfidi upshear and downshear vectors are rather
quick but is an interesting trend of guidance.

The severe threat is forecast to continue as well on Sunday.
Overall forcing looks to be more meager than previous days which
should limit storm coverage. However shear is more than
sufficient for supercells with large hail being the main
threat. Again the coverage looks to be more discrete due to the
limited forcing. Guidance is also trending towards another round
moving north to south with what appears to be a weak cold front
during the evening hours with the potential to be severe as
well; at this time this threat appears to be more conditional.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

The ridge continues to amplify on Monday and the axis expands
eastward across the central Rockies. However, there still
appears to be a thunderstorm risk with northwest flow just
downstream of the ridge axis which may be near or just west of
the area. Models do show discrete thunderstorm development in
the afternoon in an environment characterized by weak to
moderate instability and deep layer shear up to 60 kts. This
once again suggests supercells will be possible though coverage
may end up being rather isolated with the proximity to the
ridge.

The upper ridge will strengthen and build over the area from
the south Tuesday and Wednesday. Both of these days should be
hot and dry with highs in the mid to upper 90s. The ridge does
retreat a bit Thursday and Friday putting the area on the
northern periphery and under more of a zonal flow. This may open
the door for some low precipitation chances, though it is too
early to say with any certainty. Temperatures remain above
normal through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Scattered stratus is developing across the area currently with a
more solid patch directly over the GLD terminal. Visibility is
down to around 6SM which I`m believing is a combo of radiational
fog and lingering smoke which got trapped near the surface as
the inversion set in; KDOT webcams suggest more of a localized
fog so will opt to use a combo of the two. Better confidence in
smoke being present at MCK due to the lack of cloud cover on
satellite and near surface smoke guidance suggesting this; webcams
however do also show perhaps some spotty fog across Red Willow
county so will opt to go with smoke for the first few hours of
the TAF period since that should be most prevalent. Visibility
should remain MVFR but a brief period of IFR is possible as what
is going on at KCSB located to the east of the terminal in western
Furnas county. Stratus and smoke should mix out no later than 15Z
leading to VFR conditions. Watching another round of strong to
severe storms moving towards the GLD terminal after 00Z Sunday
with that threat ending around 05-06Z. Seeing an increasing trend
for thundershowers near MCK overnight Saturday, severe weather is
not anticipated. Will maintain a PROB30 for each for this TAF
issuance as mesoscale factors should increase or decrease
confidence throughout the day.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg