342
FXUS63 KGLD 292356
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
556 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance for a late afternoon/evening severe storm will
  persist over the weekend. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and quarter
  size hail are the main threats.

- Chances for severe weather continue Sunday and maybe into
  Monday. The overall chance is 10% and favors western portions
  of the area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail around an
  inch are the main hazards.

- Warming through the weekend, with highs in the upper 90`s to
  lower 100`s on Sat-Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Looking at mid-level water vapor, our region is currently under an
upper-level ridge with a surface low present in northwest Kansas.
Temperatures have already reached the 90s for the area and are
expected to further warm due to westerly/southwesterly flow bringing
in warmer and drier air. High temperatures for the day are expected
to climb in to the high 90s for our Colorado counties and into the
triple digits for our Nebraska and Kansas counties. Winds will
overall be light and variable providing little relief from the hot
temperatures.

Our westerly/southwesterly upper-level flow and surface low gives us
chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. HREF ensemble
paintballs show storms starting as between 22Z and 1Z this
afternoon. Storms are forecast to initiate in our Colorado counties
and traverse northeast. The environment is marginally unstable in
our Colorado counties with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km,
around 40 knots of effective bulk shear and around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. Shear decreases in the lower levels with 0-1 km shear around 5
knots and 0-3km shear around 20 knots. This will likely be a
limiting factor in storms. Storms will likely pop up quickly and be
short lived. Strong winds with collapsing thunderstorms will be
a concern with any short lived storms. If a stronger storm is
able to sustain itself across the Colorado/Kansas border, where
the environment is more unstable. Large hail is also possible
along with strong winds and large hail, especially given the
steep mid-level lapse rates. Models soundings are generally
showing precipitable water (PWAT) values above 1 inch, so heavy
rainfall is possible with any storms that form. Storms are
forecast to exit the area from the east by around 7Z. Lingering
cloud cover will limit overnight recovery from the heat. Lows
overnight Saturday into Sunday are forecast in the 60s to high
70s.

Sunday is looking pretty similar to Saturday forecast wise. Our
county warning area (CWA) is forecast to remain in a southwest upper-
level flow with a surface low present in northwest Kansas. High
temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s, increasing west to
east. The environment is similar to Saturday, so primary hazards are
strong winds and large hail with any stronger storms, although
majority of storms are expected to be sub-severe. Heavy rainfall is
likely with storms and any areas that received substantial rainfall
Saturday could experience nuisance flooding.

Monday, the forecast is for the upper trough over the Northern
Plains to remain roughly in place while another trough starts moving
onto the West Coast. This is forecast to keep the upper ridging over
the east and allow for slightly cooler temperatures with highs
generally in the 90s. Winds are also forecast to remain light with
broad low pressure remaining in place across the region.

We have yet another chance for showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours as we remain in southwest flow aloft and
continue to have mid to upper level moisture stream over the area.
That being said, it looks like the overall forcing over the area is
going to be a bit weaker and limit storm potential and coverage.
Should storms form, they will likely form southwest of the area
before moving in. The shear is forecast to be around 40 kts, but
instability is currently a bit lacking both with CAPE around 1000
J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. Should this hold,
there may be one to two instances of severe weather with both large
hail and wind gusts around 60-70 mph possible. However, the overall
chance is less than 10%. There is a chance that the upper trough
over the Plains mag dig south and try and provide a bit more
forcing. Even then, chances currently don`t look like they would be
much higher. The main change is that storms could cover more of the
area instead of likely staying over the western half.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Tuesday through Thursday are forecast to have roughly the same
pattern, with upper ridging over the southeast and an upper trough
over the northwest. This will keep the area in southwest flow aloft
and provide minimal air mass change. As such, temperatures remain
forecast to reach the 90s during the daytime, and the 60`s/70s
during the night. Winds will also likely remain around 5-15 mph
through much of the period with the low pressure lingering over the
area. Storms will be possible each day, likely forming along the
higher terrain to the west and pushing east towards the area. As
such, storms chances will generally favor Eastern Colorado, with
lesser chances further east. Most storms should be sub-severe, but
a severe storm or two may be possible like the prior days.

Next weekend is when there is more divergence in what may happen.
The currently forecast and likely scenario is that the pattern
remains roughly the same with highs in the 90s, light winds, and
afternoon evening storm chances. The storm chances may be a bit
higher as more robust shortwaves may push through with the upper
trough potentially deepening.

The other scenario is that the trough ejects east and pushes through
the Plains. With this, a strong cold front would likely push through
Friday or Saturday and give the area a good chance for storms and
severe weather. Once the front passes, colder air would then filter
in from the north and likely give us a break from the 90s. Storm
chances would also likely be minimal with the drier and cooler air
over the area. This scenario currently has a 25-35% chance of
occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast north of I-70 this evening
ahead of a cold front. Confidence is not high enough to include
thunderstorms in TAFS for KGLD, though they are more likely at KMCK
between 02 and 06Z. Winds will remain light, with northerly
components favored as the cold front comes through the area.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and
KMCK through the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK/Rhoades
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Davis