119
FXUS63 KGLD 252319
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
419 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until late Monday morning
  for the entire Tri-State area.

- Another round of snow likely this afternoon/evening. Eastern
  Colorado may see an additional 1-2 inches of snow with the
  rest of the area seeing a trace up to 1 inch.

- The ongoing cold snap will end by early Monday afternoon. A
  gradual warming trend will follow, through midweek.

- Localized blowing snow is possible Monday afternoon, when
  southwest winds could gust up to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1125 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

This evening, another trough will sweep through the region and bring
with it a chance at some light snow and stratus. The column is only
saturated in the low and mid levels, but there is a strong band of
vorticity at 500 mb, especially across the western CWA. Most likely,
the western edge of the CWA will see 1-2 inches of snow, areas
between Stratton, CO and KS 25 will generally see between 0.25-1
inch of snow. Areas on east will likely see a trace to less than
0.25 inch of snow , except northeast of Culbertson to Hill City,
which may only see flurries. This snowfall will start moving into
the northwestern CWA around 21Z, peak around 0-3Z, and exit to the
south around 6-9Z.

The timing and coverage of the east side of the stratus and
precipitation are adding some chaos into the low temperatures
tonight. As it stands, at least scattered sky coverage is expected
along and south of U.S. 24 until 12Z. This should keep the surface
insulated moderately well, and keep temperatures from dropping too
much throughout most of the night, letting it be warmer than last
night. However, the sky looks to become mostly clear before sunrise,
which will likely be enough time for temperatures to cool around
-10 to 0. This would lead to wind chills in the -25 to -25 range. If
the sky clears out sooner, expect temperatures to drop another 5
degrees, and wind chills to drop a similar amount. Current
confidence is about 50% that the sky will clear early and Norton,
Decatur, Red Willow, and Graham counties will see wind chills below
-25, Cold Weather Warning criteria. However, until that confidence
climbs, an Advisory will remain in place for the entire Tri-State
area.

Tomorrow looks comparatively mild as a weak ridge builds into the
Great Basin, leaving us under northwesterly flow aloft. We could
see some gusts around 25-30 kts across the area tomorrow
afternoon. There is a 10-15% chance the new snow from this
afternoon may blow and reduce visibility to 1-3 miles. For the
snow that fell Friday/Saturday, confidence is about 3-5% for the
same impacts. Temperatures in the snowpacked are will likely
top out around freezing while areas to the northwest will warm
closer to 40. Winds overnight Monday looks to remain westerly,
which the NBM is expecting to keep temperatures in the low
teens. For areas without snowpack, this is likely. Remaining
snowpack areas will likely cool into the single digits, with
wind chills dropping to around 0. There`s a 40% chance areas
with remaining snowpack will cool an additional 5 degrees, in
both air temperature and wind chills.

Tuesday, a shortwave trough looks to propogate through the
northwesterly flow. However, with only some mild upper level
moisture, no precipitation is likely with this wave. Temperatures
from the NBM show mid 40s in the west and just above freezing in the
east. With the cloud cover and snowpack, it`s likely temperatures
are 3-5 degrees too warm, meaning the southeastern CWA will likely
not warm above freezing. Temperatures are wind chills Tuesday night
are very similar to Monday night`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Wednesday we start off with a ridge building west of the Rocky
Mountains and a low in the Great Lakes region. This puts us in a
predominately northwest flow with sunny skies and unseasonably warm
temperatures. High temperatures forecast in the low 50s/high 40s for
a majority of the county warning area (CWA). Graham and Gove
counties may have temperatures at least 5 degrees lower depending on
how much snowpack remains from last weekend`s winter system. Low
temperatures are forecast in the teens for Wednesday. Winds will be
mild and variable with gusts from 15-20 mph possible.

Thursday cools down slightly as the low in the Great Lakes regions
deepens and a cold front sweeps down towards our region. High
temperatures are in the high 30s for the eastern portion of the CWA
and high 40s for the rest of the CWA. Low temperatures drop into the
upper single digits for the northeastern portion of the CWA. Winds
are forecast to be mild and variable for the most part, but our
Colorado counties could see wind gusts up to 30 mph. Overnight wind
chills approach zero for the northeast portion of the CWA. Models
align well with timing of the cold front affecting our area, but
disagree on how much the low will dig south. Currently, the Euro has
the trough digging deeper than the GFS, which would funnel more cold
area into our area. Temperatures are forecast to be colder with
highs in the upper 30s for the CWA.

Looking at the 280K Theta-E surfaces, our region is mostly in a dry
sector with moisture present east of us. This, combined with lack of
upper level support, chances of precipitation Thursday overnight
into Friday are fairly low. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are
5-10% overnight and 5-15% throughout the day Friday. PoPs could
increase if more moisture is advected into our region along with the
cold air Friday.

Another warm up is forecast for the weekend as a ridge builds west
of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the low
40s-50s with things cooler west to east on Saturday. Lows are
forecast in the 20s with mild and variable winds for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 417 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Scattered light snow showers moving through the area this
evening will result in MVFR ceilings and perhaps some brief
periods of minor visibility restrictions. Snow will move out of
the area by 06-07z tonight with VFR prevailing through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092.
NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...024