933
FXUS63 KGLD 061659
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1059 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening,
  mainly along and south of a line from Yuma County to Gove
  County between 3-10 PM MDT. Large hail and damaging winds
  appear to be the primary threats. A brief, isolated tornado is
  possible. Locations south of Highway 40 are most at-risk.

- Fog, perhaps dense is possible again tonight through Saturday
  morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Visibilities have greatly improved so have ended the Dense Fog
Advisory early although some reductions in visibility of 2-5sm
remains possible through 18Z. Am seeing a similar signal for
more fog tonight so have added fog into the forecast, dense fog
may again be on the table. Fog should develop as the rain moves
out overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Through Sunrise: Fog has developed over much of northwest
Kansas this morning. As of 07 UTC, dense fog has been observed
at several ASOS/AWOS sites (Wray, Goodland, St. Francis, Colby).
Regional satellite, radar and observational data indicate that
upstream cloud cover (mid-upper level ceilings in Colorado) and
patchy sprinkles will progress eastward over northwest Kansas
this morning.. lending considerable uncertainty to dense fog
coverage and duration. With this in mind.. have opted to message
fog via social media / weather story and hazardous weather
outlook (in lieu of a Dense Fog Advisory).

Today-Tonight: A WSW flow aloft regime will persist over the
region. In contrast to yesterday, a southwest to northeast
oriented shear axis -- extending southwestward from Manitoba to
Montana and Idaho at 07 UTC this morning -- will slowly progress
east toward the Northern Plains late this afternoon and evening.
While upper level forcing directly associated with this feature
will remain well upstream of the Goodland county warning area
during peak heating, upstream convective development associated
with this feature.. and/or small amplitude waves rounding it`s
eastern periphery (amidst strengthening WSW flow aloft in the
lee of the central Rockies).. could certainly influence
convective development/evolution in the Goodland CWA. Morning
fog and lingering stratus over northwest Kansas are likely to
influence environmental conditions this afternoon.. lending
additional uncertainty to convective development and evolution
this aft-eve. Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly along
and south of a line from Yuma County to Gove County between
21-04 UTC (3-10 PM MDT). Isolated supercells are possible..
mainly south of I-70. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be
the primary threats. While a brief, isolated tornado is a
possibility with any discrete supercells.. weak low-level flow
may mitigate tornado potential in the Goodland CWA. Locations
south of Highway 40 are most at-risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Saturday, ridging begins to develop across the western CONUS
which will be the start of a warming trend for the area as high
temperatures are currently forecast to rebound in to the mid 80s
across the area. The forecast for the most part is dry for
Saturday but there is a 10-20% chance Norton and Graham county
may get skirted with a passing shower as a weak disturbance
moves across north central Kansas.

Sunday at this time appears to be a bit more active as a low
pressure system develops across the northern Plains which moves
a cold front back through the area. Showers and storms are
currently forecast to develop along the front with severe
weather possible during the afternoon and evening hours. There
does remain some discrepancies with the overall placement of the
low and timing of the front. A slower cold frontal passage
would support an increased severe weather potential for the
area.

Into the start of the next week, we remain in the NW flow
pattern but not seeing any indications at this time of any
disturbances in the flow so the forecast will remain dry for
now. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s across much of the area. Troughing then does look to
return towards the middle portion of the week with the potential
for our active pattern to continue with severe weather chances
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Stratus continues across most of the area with MVFR to IFR
ceilings remaining in place; latest visible satellite imagery
does show some pockets of clearing across the region so will
need to continue to monitor over the next few hours. Confidence
is increasing in showers and storms moving across the area this
afternoon and evening; will maintain the PROB30 for now due to
boundaries across the area which may play havoc in the rainfall
forecast; some storms may be severe with the most likely for
severe being at KGLD. Another round of fog and stratus is
currently forecast for KMCK with IFR ceilings currently
forecast, visibilities may fall lower than what is currently in
the TAF but will be dependent on how quickly rainfall moves out
of the the area. At this time stratus and visibility reduction
should remain east of KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg