495
FXUS63 KGLD 250313
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
813 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20%-40% chances for light rain and snow showers remain in the
  forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Less than one
  inch of snowfall expected at this time and confined to
  locations west of Highway 27.

- Thanksgiving day is currently forecast to be sunny and dry
  with high temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s and
  northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.

- Below/much below normal temperatures are forecast Thursday
  through Sunday with no precipitation expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tonight...a batch of moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves
through the area from the north, ahead of a progressive 500mb
trough. As it moves through, it splits a bit with some of it
moving east and away from the area with another part of it
hugging the Colorado Front Range. Both 850-700 and 700-500mb
lapse rates are poor along with downward omega. With that in
mind, confidence in any precipitation developing is low and as a
result will remove the mention of flurries. It will be breezy
at times with northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s.

Monday-Monday night...any morning clouds will quickly dissipate
by late morning leaving a sunny sky in the afternoon before
some high clouds move in from the west overnight. High
temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s with low
temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...a fairly narrow plume of moisture from
850- 300mb will be oriented west to east, in between a broad
upper ridge to our south and a low pressure system over the
Pacific Northwest. During the day, we`ll see mainly mid and high
clouds as the deeper moisture doesnt get over the Continental
Divide. Overnight, we`re looking at moisture generally above
700mb increasing along and north of Interstate 70. We`ll
continue with a slight chance (20%)for light rain and snow
showers across eastern Colorado after midnight. High
temperatures warm back up close to normal in the lower to middle
50s. Low temperatures fall into the 25 to 30 degree range.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...sufficient moisture in the
850-500mb layer moves through the area during the day, ahead of
an approaching upper level trough axis during the day, likely
decreasing from north to south overnight as drier air moves in.
Todays model guidance is in a bit more disagreement on how
things unfold compared to 24 hours ago so for now we`ll need to
maintain some 20%-40% chances for light snow showers. High
temperatures fall back below normal in the upper 30s to middle
40s with low temperatures in the 15 to 20 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Thursday...the forecast area is forecast to be under northwest
flow aloft. The current forecast has a 20% chance for light snow
showers in the morning along and north of Interstate 70 but
given the GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts of
rather dry air, I`m doubtful we`ll get any precipitation for
the entire day. High temperatures remain below normal in the
middle 30s to lower 40s with low temperatures in the teens.

Friday...we remain under northwest flow aloft. Presently, the
forecast remains dry as the better 850-500mb moisture needed for
precipitation remains just to the north and northeast of the
area. High temperatures are similar to Thursday in the upper 30s
to lower 40s with low temperatures in the 15 to 20 degree
range.

Saturday...we remain under northwest flow aloft, in between low
pressure over the east coast and ridging along the west coast.
With the 850-500mb layer rather dry from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
models, we`ll maintain a dry forecast. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 35 to 40 degree range with low
temperatures in the teens.

Sunday...forecast looks to be dry with continued well below
normal daytime high temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s
and low temperatures in the 10F to 15F range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 810 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

GLD: At 0235Z, MVFR stratus developed within ~30 miles of the
Goodland terminal (KCBK reported OVC016) and.. as of 0301Z..
KGLD itself was reporting BKN017. With this in mind, MVFR
ceilings will likely persist for several hours expected
overnight, mainly between ~03-09Z. Otherwise.. VFR conditions
will prevail. Ongoing breezy (20-30 knot) N winds assoc/w rapid
surface pressure rises in the wake of a a cold frontal passage
will decrease to 10-15 knots by sunrise (~08-12Z Mon), becoming
light/variable by late morning (~18Z) as ~1030 mb high pressure
builds southward over southern Nebraska and western Kansas.
Winds will shift to the S or SSW and increase to 12-16 knots
near the end of the TAF period (02-06Z Tue) as high pressure
shifts SSE into eastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma.. and modest
southerly return flow ensues over the High Plains.

MCK: Ongoing MVFR ceilings (OVC018 at 0253Z) will persist for
much of the night, scattering out by sunrise (~09-12Z).
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Ongoing breezy (15-25
knot) N winds assoc/w rapid surface pressure rises in the wake
of a a cold frontal passage will decrease to 10-15 knots by
sunrise (~08-12Z Mon), becoming light/variable by late morning
(~18Z) as ~1030 mb high pressure builds southward over southern
Nebraska and western Kansas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Vincent