916
FXUS63 KGLD 082158
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
358 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are expected during a cold frontal passage
  Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm is
  possible, mainly in northwest KS between 3-9 PM MDT. Wind and
  hail are the main hazards. Potential impacts include, but are
  not limited to, hail damage to vehicles and wind damage to
  roofs, siding and trees.

- Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast for
  most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Synoptic Overview: An amplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast
(tonight) will slowly shift eastward across the Intermountain
West (Sat-Sat night) and Rockies (Sun-Sun night). Meanwhile,
shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon (per 19Z SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will
track east into western MT tonight.. then gradually dig SSE
through central WY (Sat), CO (Sat night), NM (Sun) and the TX
Panhandle (Sun night).. via NNW flow aloft on the eastern
periphery of the eastward advancing ridge.

Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy over central Kansas/Nebraska at
20Z will progress east toward Missouri/Iowa late this afternoon
and evening. While spring sunshine and a relatively cool mid-
level airmass (700 mb temps ~0C) have fostered the development
of an extensive Cu field this afternoon, meager low- level
moisture/instability and subsidence in the wake of the departing
shortwave will suppress/preclude shower development. Expect
overnight / Sat morning lows in the 40`s.

Sat-Sat night: An inverted surface ridge assoc/w modest surface
high pressure in Alberta/Saskatchewan will extend southward
through the Dakotas (tonight) into Nebraska/Kansas (Sat aft-
eve), the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly
wind shift and modest effective cold frontal passage during the
late aft-eve. Outflow (or an evaporatively cooled airmass)
emanating from upstream convection in the lee of the northern
Rockies Sat morning -- i.e. scattered to numerous showers/storms
associated with shortwave energy digging SSE from MT into WY --
will likely augment the otherwise modest surface ridge
extending southward through the Dakotas/Nebraska during the day.
As a result, the timing of the front -- and specific aspects of
the mesoscale pattern /low-level forcing/ over the Tri-State
Area during the afternoon -- are difficult to ascertain with
confidence. From a thermodynamic/kinematic environment
standpoint, virtually all guidance indicates marginal
instability (~500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) and enough deep- layer shear
for supercellular organization / an isolated severe weather
potential. While low-level convergence in northeast CO may be
sufficient for isolated convective development during peak
heating, simulated reflectivity forecasts via 18Z runs of the
HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that convective development will be
confined to the Cheyenne Ridge / southeast WY (upstream of the
Goodland CWA).. in closer proximity to the aforementioned
shortwave (more favorable upper forcing) digging SSE through
central-southern WY. If this is the case, convection may be
delayed by several hours.. until the evening.. when
environmental conditions would be less-supportive of severe
weather in the Goodland CWA.

Sun-Sun night: Expect cooler temperatures, light N to NE winds
and little to no chance for precipitation in the wake of the
front, with highs in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Starting the extended period Monday, high pressure is forecast
to be in place across the SW CONUS with warm temperatures in the
upper 80s in place over the area. At the surface a trough is
forecast to be in place. The surface trough is forecast to lead
to breezy winds developing with gusts around 30-35 mph forecast.
Do have concerns for elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions where the trough sets up and locales to the east of
it. The mixed dew point from the surface to 30mb AGL according
to the 12Z nam shows dew points around 8 degrees lower which
seems reasonable given the set up.

Tuesday, not much change is forecast to occur in the mid level
pattern but at the surface high pressure is forecast to nudge in
from the north during the afternoon and shift winds to the
north and weaken them as well. Winds however are forecast to
remain breezy ahead of this however. Due to the wind shift and
weakening of the winds for the afternoon brings some questions
as to if any prolonged duration of fire weather could be on the
table or not. With the positioning of the high pressure large
scale subsidence is forecast to be in place across the area
leading to dry conditions both Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday, the high pressure shifts to the east which is
forecast to allow some moisture back into the area. A tight
surface pressure gradient also funnels and dams moisture up east
of the Rockies. The GFS suggests that a shortwave coming off of
the Rockies during the afternoon would ignite some showers and
presumably storms given the moisture in place as this setup is
somewhat reminiscent of a summertime monsoonal pattern. The
ECMWF is around 24 hours slower with these features and turns
Thursday as a potential day to keep an eye on. Into late week
and next weekend guidance suggests that the pattern may turn
more active but is way to soon to get into the details at this
time.

Temperatures mid to late week are forecast to continue to
remain at least in the low 80s to 90s. The exact evolution of
how features turn out regarding moisture moisture, etc... will
dictate if we are looking at highs in the low 80s or the low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals. N winds at 10-15 knots will become light/variable
this evening and overnight. Winds will shift to the SW by
sunrise Sat and increase to 15-20 knots during the late morning.
Winds will shift to the NW or N and decrease to 10-15 knots by
early afternoon. Winds will further shift to the NE and increase
to 15-20 knots with a modest cold frontal passage during the
late afternoon and early evening, near the end of the 00Z TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent