984
FXUS63 KGLD 012020
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
120 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend and
  into early next week.

- Some sprinkles possible Friday morning.

- Low chance (5-10%) of fog tonight. Better signal for fog
  Friday night into Saturday morning. Eastern portions of the
  CWA are favored each night.

- Potential pattern change mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1113 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Fairly tranquil start to the new year across the Tri-State area. Mid
level ridging is present leading to the tranquil conditions. Some
embedded shortwaves within the flow are leading to continuous cirrus
over the forecast area which looks to keep temperatures in the 60s
for the day. Weak 850mb frontogenesis is moving through the area
bringing a slight cool down in temperatures initially along
with turning winds to the northwest. Due to relatively no low
level pressure gradients and lack flow, winds for the day are
forecast to remain relatively light around 10 mph. Tonight a low
pressure systems across the southern Plains is forecast to lead
to the winds turning easterly. Will need to keep an eye on some
patchy fog potential mainly along and east of Highway 83 as
this occurs. Due to confidence currently being less than 10% in
this occurring will opt to leave out of the forecast for now.
Another factor playing against the fog will be a gradual
increase in mid level moisture which will also help keep
temperatures a little higher due to better insolation from the
cloud cover. A strong 500mb vorticity maxima within one of the
shortwaves is forecast to move across the area which is what is
leading to the mid level moisture advection. 15Z RAP cross
sections shows a deep dry layer from the surface to around
around 700mb during the peak time of the vorticity moving
across. I can`t completely rule out a shower or two but with
how deep the dry air is I would be surprise if anything but some
rogue sprinkles occur. The dry layer does wane some starting
around 09Z so if there can be any lingering lift then the
relative better chance would be after that. If we can get any
clearing or even spotty clearing overnight then temperatures may
locally fall a little lower than what I have in the forecast
more than likely into the mid 20s.

Friday, mid level moisture is forecast to increase through the
day from a weak shortwave and associated 500mb vorticity maxima
just north of the area. Looking 09Z RAP cross section analysis
there is around 1-2 microbars of omega between 700-550mb mainly
favoring Yuma and Dundy counties. However with dry air still at
the surface think sprinkles or virga is the most likely scenario
currently so will add some small pops around 5% to the forecast
from around 15Z-19Z. Thick mid level clouds looks most likely
due to the increase in mid level moisture so have lowered high
temperatures a few degrees to account for this with highs in the
upper 40s across the east to the low 60s across the west.
Overall winds are forecast to be light around 5-10 mph for the
majority of the day but as the shortwave approaches the area the
surface and 850mb wind field is forecast to increase which may
lead to some increasing in winds during the mid afternoon hours
with gusts around 30-35 mph. Due to cloud cover in place don`t
think mixing will overly deep but should max out around 5000
feet. Friday night and into Saturday morning, a better potential
for fog across eastern portions of the area is seen on forecast
soundings on the back end of the wave which looks to lead to
more light and variable winds. Temperatures are forecast to be
around freezing so will need to watch for freezing fog again.
Will let at least another round of data come in before adding
into the forecast to ensure the signal sticks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Starting the long term period on Saturday, ridging is forecast to
develop and move back across the area. This is forecast to lead to
more above normal temperatures to continue for the area into the
start of the new work week. High temperatures are currently forecast
in the 60s. Guidance does suggest that some southwesterly winds will
be present on Sunday which would lead to the potential for some 70s
as well. There could be some critical fire weather concern that day
with a 25-30 knot 850mb jet in place across the area. Will continue
to monitor over the next few days.

Mid week, a potential pattern change is on the table. Most
guidance does have a more troughiness feature to it. The big
question is the timing with the trough. The deterministic GFS
is the quickest with it having it affect the area in the
Thursday/Friday range versus the GEFS Mean and the ECMWF are a
little slower with it being more of a weekend issue. There still
remains tons of spread with the overall track and how it will
evolve but it will still need to monitored.

Temperatures for the week remain forecast to be above normal in the
0s and 60s with the potential for cooling trend closer towards
normal towards the end of the week especially if the quicker
progression of the trough occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 951 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. NNW winds
starting the period are forecast to gradually shift to the NNE
with occasional periods of variable winds. Upper level clouds
are also forecast to gradually fall to around 060-090 overnight
and through the morning hours. Can`t completely rule out
sprinkles or a rogue shower for either terminal but due to drier
air at the surface confidence is to low to include in the TAF
currently.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg