128
FXUS63 KGLD 041114
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
514 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, perhaps dense is forecast across portions of the area
  Monday morning.

- Conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon, evening
  and possibly overnight. If storms do form they could produce
  significant hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

- Warming trend continues through the week before peaking
  Thursday and Friday with heat indices of 100-105 degrees
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

NW flow continues across the area as a surface high remains across
the SW CONUS. Watching for fog and stratus development as moisture
advection occurs across most of the area.  Dense fog may also be
possible as winds become more climatologically favored to the SSE.
At this time any fog and stratus is forecast to dissipate around mid
to late morning.

The main focus for the day is another threat for severe storms
across portions of the area. Forcing today is more nebulous but a
700mb shortwave across northeast Colorado and the right entrance
region of a 500mb jet may be enough for a lone supercell to form
around the Yuma, Colorado vicinity as a weak surface convergence
boundary may be in place. Should this storm form another significant
hail event may unfold as 0-6 bulk shear is even stronger today
(around 50 knots) than it was yesterday along very steep lapse rates
of 8.5-9 c/km will be in play. Due to the weak forcing am thinking
that that only 1 storm will be in play but some semi straight
line hodographs may support a splitting potential. The 250mb jet
that help initiate Sunday`s storm will still be in place
helping lay the way for a long track supercell. How far the
supercell will last will depend on how quickly rising heights
occurs as the upper level support departs. This storm is
forecast to move again to the SSE so adjacent counties to Yuma
will need to be on their guard. Hail to baseballs, damaging
winds and tornado or two will all be on the table. Higher
freezing levels aloft than Sunday brings some uncertainty to
exactly how large the hail can become but think the amount of
shear and CAPE in place can help compensate for that. The
tornado potential today appears to be a bit more favorable than
Sunday due to better and stronger low level turning of the winds
especially towards the evening as 50kt LLJ with SE winds
emerges. The big question with this cell (assuming it forms)
will be will it dissipate with the height rises or will the
strengthening LLJ continue to aid it as it moves to the south.

Monday evening and overnight is when the forecast begins to become a
bit more difficult. Stronger forcing across the Nebraska panhandle
looks to develop other storms north of the forecast area. The NAM is
bit slower on the progression of the 700mb shortwave and does not
initiate the Yuma cell but aids the development of an intense
cluster of storms riding down the eastern periphery of the SW
CONUS ridge into the area as the LLJ aids in the maintenance of
this. Other guidance suggests that remnants/cold pools from
storms in this area will continue into the northern forecast
area with the potential for a large hail threat. Confidence is
starting to increase in the potential for evening storms but the
question will be how worked over is the atmosphere to support
severe weather.

Confidence is also increasing as well when a potential 3rd round of
storms east of Trenton to Leoti early Tuesday morning. Shear remains
there for some hail potential but lapse rates fall to around 6.5-7
c/km which would mitigate that potential. MUCAPE around 1000-1500
j/kg still remains in place so thinking that some pulsey severe
hail may be still be possible. The forcing from this is coming
from a combination of strong isentropic lift, another 700mb
shortwave and a sagging 250mb jet aiding in additional support
for storms to form and survive. These showers and storms will
move off to the east as drier air in the mid levels pushes in
from the west.

High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the forecast area. Light winds this
morning are forecast to gradually increase through the day
before peaking overnight actually as the low level jet
increases. The strongest winds overnight are currently forecast
to be along and west of a Dundy to to Greeley county line with
sustained winds of 20-30 mph and wind gusts around 40-45 mph
into the morning Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tuesday-Thursday, the upper ridge over the southwest is forecast to
expand more into the South-Central High Plains and over the area.
With the expanding ridge, temperatures are forecast to warm above
average again into the mid-upper 90s and 100s. The hottest day is
currently forecast to be Thursday, with the possibility of heat
index values reaching the 100s. Will keep an eye out for the
potential for heat advisory criteria. Storm chances linger, but
should be fairly low due to the broad upper subsidence. That being
said, the area is forecast to be on the upper part of the ridge,
which means shortwaves could influence the area during the
afternoon/evening hours and provide some forcing for greater storm
development. Finally, the other conditions to keep an eye on is the
potential for some critical fire weather conditions. As we get
warmer and drier, there is the possibility that wind gusts could
reach 30 mph while RH is dropping into the teens (mainly for
counties along the Colorado border).

Friday-Sunday, the upper ridge is forecast to be flattened and
retreat more to the southwest as some upper troughs try and swing
through the Northern Plains. If the troughs don`t move in fast
enough, Friday could be another day with temperatures and heat index
values in the 100s. Otherwise, temperatures should cool back to the
80s and 90s, with increased chances for storms due to the additional
forcing moving through the area.

Severe weather will remain possible through the week. Severe chances
should also be higher this upcoming weekend with the potential
systems sweeping through the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Watching for fog and stratus this morning as winds become light
with some subtle southeasterly flow especially for MCK. Fog is
on the doorstep of MCK with KCSB at less than 1/4SM; opted to
not go that aggressive for MCK as thus far via satellite is
struggling to get into the terminal rings. Did also include a
6sm for GLD as brief period may be possible right at sunrise as
other locales to the south a dropping to the 5-6SM; GlD has more
of a SW wind so think that will help prevent further reductions.
A less than 10% chance of an intense storm affecting GLD is on
the table from 6-8pm MT this afternoon, if this storm does form
be aware of turbulence. A 20% chance of redevelopment this
evening and overnight for GLD and 30% for MCK. A strong LLJ is
forecast to develop this evening as well but at this time I`m
anticipating winds to continue to mix and become breezy and
minimizing the LLWS potential. If the winds don`t pick up then
LLWS will occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg