453
FXUS63 KGLD 071927
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
127 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warming trend expected to last through most of this work
  week.

- Breezy NW winds and near critical fire weather conditions are
  likely over much, or all, of the area on Wednesday. Critical
  fire weather conditions are possible. Outdoor burning is not
  advised.

- Warm to hot temperatures are possible late in the weekend
  ahead of a potentially very active start to the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The rest of the afternoon is forecast to remain fairly mild
with the upper ridge axis over the High Plains and a fairly
broad surface pressure gradient at the surface. Temperatures
will likely remain in the 60s with winds generally below 10 mph.

Tonight, the center of higher surface pressure is forecast to
remain over the Plains while low pressure begins to build near
the Front Range. This will allow winds to pick up to around
10-15 mph from the south as the pressure gradient tightens. With
the increase in winds, temperatures should generally stay in
the 30s as the winds keep the lower levels mixed out. Skies will
remain mostly clear.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast deamplify more during the
day, but have its axis swing over the area. With guidance
suggesting that only some scattered high clouds from moisture
moving over the mountains will pass through during the day,
temperatures should be able to warm to their full potential.
This is especially true as winds shift to out of the
southwest/west while the low pressure system moves through the
area which generally provides a few degrees of warming due to
downsloping of the winds. Highs are forecast to be around 80,
with some mid 80s possible for areas that have less cloud cover.
With the warm temperatures and dry conditions near the surface,
relative humidity is forecast to fall into the mid-teens by the
afternoon hours. This does cause some concern for critical fire
weather conditions, but ensembles show fairly little variation
with the track of the surface low moving over the area and
temporarily weakening winds during the afternoon. With this, am
not overly concerned that critical fire weather conditions would
develop except for maybe an hour in isolated pockets. The best
chance would be west of Highway 27 if the low moved through
faster.

Tomorrow evening and night, guidance is again suggesting that
some mid-level moisture is forecast to move through around
700-500mb in the wake of the low. While not overly impressive in
how saturated the level would become, it could be enough for a
few elevated showers and maybe a stay storm to form. That being
said, there still only remains a 5-10% chance that anything
would reach the surface with fairly dry air (RH 10-20%) in the
lower levels. If a storm formed, it could produce a dry
lightning strike while any precipitation producing shower could
cause a wind gust around 40-50 mph (downshear vectors and cloud
layer winds around 40kts). As the evening and night goes on, the
higher level moisture should leave the area to the east and
skies clear. On the backside of the low, winds should remain a
bit elevated around 10-15 mph from the northwest which will help
keep temperatures higher in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Overview: Cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern periphery of
a pronounced westerly upper level jet.. extending eastward from
the northern Pacific (35N 155W, or ~1000 mi north of Hawaii) to
the central-northern Rockies (~2500 mi).. will rapidly erode/
undercut the central CONUS ridge late Tue-Tue night. A
transition to NW flow aloft (Wed night-Thu) and N flow aloft
(Fri), will follow.. as the Tri-State area finds itself situated
between an amplifying western CONUS ridge and an amplifying
eastern CONUS trough. Long range guidance continues to indicate
that the aforementioned ridge will shift eastward across the
central CONUS this weekend as an upper level trough amplifies
along the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.

Wednesday: Expect dry conditions and above average temps.
Guidance indicates that breezy NW to NNW winds will develop
during the afternoon, in advance of a modest cold frontal
passage (and northerly wind shift) late Wed evening/night. While
antecedent conditions are `wetter` than normal (much of the
area received 0.50" to 2" of rain on April 03-04) and RH
readings are presently anticipated to bottom-out around 15-25
percent, guidance suggests that deep vertical mixing and
strengthening low-mid level flow could (potentially) support
NW-NNW winds on the order of 30-45 mph Wed afternoon. With this
in mind, critical fire weather conditions are a distinct
possibility. If subsequent model runs are indicative of strong
NW winds.. a Fire Weather Watch may be necessary for at least
portions of the area.

Thursday: Expect dry conditions and cooler (albeit near-
average) temperatures in the wake of a modest cold frontal
passage accompanying the transition to NW flow aloft Wed eve-
night.

Friday: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the
pronounced western CONUS ridge progresses eastward across the
Rockies and High Plains.

Saturday-Monday: Active weather (in some form) will return to
the Tri-State area in this period. Expect dry conditions, a
warming trend and strengthening wind, on Saturday.. as the upper
level ridge departs (progressing east toward the MS River
Valley), cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the western CONUS.. and
low-level southerly flow strengthens on the eastern periphery of
a deepening lee trough/cyclone. Low confidence in forecast
specifics at this range. At present, critical fire weather
appears to be the primary hazard.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected with clear to
mostly clear skies through the period. Winds near the surface
are forecast to remain around 6kts or less for most of the
daytime hours. After 00Z, winds are expected to shift to out of
the south around 10 kts as a low pressure system develops west
of the area. A low level jet is also forecast to develop with
speeds around 35-40kts and produce low level wind shear around
400-800ft. The shear should end around 12Z with winds then
shifting to more out of the west for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK