401
FXUS63 KGLD 241926
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
126 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance for storms this evening. 1-1.5 inch hail and
  55-70 MPH winds are the likely threats. There is a low chance
  a storm could produce 2 inch hail and wind gusts to 75-80 mph.

- Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards
  possible.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Current observations have mostly clear skies across the area with
temperatures in the 80s. Low pressure is place across much of the
area, which has been keeping winds on the lighter side at 10 mph or
less. The light winds and mostly clear skies are forecast to
continue, but temperatures should still warm into the 90s by the
late afternoon.

While the upper ridge remains in place over much of the Central and
Western United States, an upper trough is pushing east along the
US/Canada border. This, along with some lingering moisture in the
area, are forecast to have some storms develop either this afternoon
or during the evening. For now, it looks like we are more likely to
see storms in the evening, as we`ll need storms to come from the
Front Range or from West-Central Nebraska. Our only chance during
the afternoon seems to be if we can heat a bit more than forecast
and reach convective temperature over NW Kansas or SW Nebraska.
Otherwise, encroaching drier air with dewpoints in the 50s from the
west will likely inhibit storms from forming unless a stronger
forcing mechanism is present.

Should storms not form over the area, the main batch does look to
come from storms to the west. Compared to prior forecasts, the
chances that storms make it and are severe is lower with the drier
air lowering instability. We might still be able to have a storm or
two produce hail to around an inch or a wind gust near 60 mph with
what`s available. This line looks to move into Eastern Colorado
around 5-9pm MT. The chances for stronger severe storms look to be
ties to storms either developing in the moist air as mentioned
above, or storms moving in from the north. The environment is
forecast to be a bit more unstable with MUCAPE reaching 3000 J/kg
instead of 1000-1500 J/kg. Shear is also forecast to be better with
0-6km around 30-35 kts instead of 20-25 kts. This may be enough to
allow for a strong storm or a supercell to form, producing large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter. If storms cluster instead, wind
gusts up to 75-80 mph are possible. Even if storms move through in
the better environment, the higher impacts should still be fairly
limited with most of the better forcing outside of the area putting
a damper on strong storm coverage.

If storms do move into the area, they may continue overnight either
with an MCS from the west of with the cluster from the north. The
severe threat should lower compared to earlier in the evening, but
still could see a wind gust to 70 mph and maybe large hail up to
half a dollar in size. This looks to currently favor Southwest
Nebraska and adjacent counties. Low temperatures look to be in the
60s and 70s, though increased cloud cover may keep temperatures in
the 70s and 80s for most of the night.

Tuesday, the upper trough is forecast to begin riding the northwest
flow over the Plains, keeping some upper level support for storms
over the area through much of the day. One of two scenarios is
forecast for tomorrow. The first is that storms may continue through
much of the morning and into the afternoon, sparked by increasing
moisture, the trough, and early outflows. In this case, temperatures
would likely be cooler in the 70s and 80s through much of the day.
Storms coverage and activity would also be higher, but the severe
threat likely much lower with repeated clustering and lower
instability to work with. If there is a break during the morning and
afternoon hours, temperatures should warm into the low 90s with
mostly clear skies. Storms would then fire up during the afternoon
and evening hours, likely over the area during the afternoon and
then from the west and north during the evening. The severe threat
would then be higher with the potential for very large hail up to
2.75" (likely with earlier storms) and then wind gusts up to 80 mph
with a line or cluster in the evening. A brief tornado or two would
then also be possible.

The current forecast is somewhat of a split of the two scenarios, as
prior events have rarely picked one camp or the other. It would be
reasonable to expect a few early storms across the area, just enough
to lower the overall coverage of the severe weather later in the
day. Storms would still fire up before shifting east and likely
ending during the evening. In this case, most storms would be sub to
marginally severe, but a few storms would produce the higher end
impacts. For now, NW Kansas and SW Nebraska have the higher chance
for the more impactful storms, but look for updates after we see
what tonight brings.

Wednesday, the upper trough is forecast to push to the east while
the ridge amplifies into Canada over the Rockies. This will keep the
area in northwest flow aloft, but likely keep the warmer air to the
west of the area. With higher surface pressure and a slightly cooler
air mass forecast to be in place, temperatures are forecast to cap
in the 80s underneath partly cloudy skies. The pressure gradient is
forecast to remain somewhat broad and keep wind on the light side
around 5 to 10 mph.

There will be another chance for storms with the northwest flow
likely bringing a shortwave through late in the afternoon and during
the evening hours. With the ridge and high pressure over the area,
there will be some inhibition for storms which would likely limit
development to outside of the area. As usual, storms would likely
form near the Front Range and push east. If a storms can make it to
the area, there would be the possibility for one or two to be
severe, likely with hail around an inch and wind gusts in the 60-70
mph range. It doesn`t currently look like storms would survive past
midnight, allowing the area to clear and have lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Thursday through at least Saturday, the upper ridge axis is forecast
to shift more over the area. This should allow temperatures to be a
bit warmer in the mid to upper 90s. The chances for 100s looks to be
low at this time as the ridge is forecast to deamplify as it pushes
east. This should also lower storms chances a bit with the upper
level subsidence in place. Still, it wouldn`t be unreasonable for
some late in the day storms moving in from the west. We may also
have additional development in the area if the ridge deamplifies
enough for a trough to begin to develop and push low pressure into
the area.

For the end of the weekend and beginning of next week, an upper
trough should be pushing in from the northwest. This should bring
some slightly cooler temperatures to the area, but probably keep
highs in the 80s and 90s with the trough forecast to cross the
Northern United States. We should also see some increase in storm
chances with the upper level southwest flow likely assisting storms
in developing west of the area. So in short, much of the same with
highs around 90 and continued storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with mostly clear skies and winds below 10 kts. A low
pressure system is over the area, so expect winds to vary in
direction through much of the period. Storms are also possible
after 02Z at both terminals. KGLD is more likely close to 06Z
and KMCK is more likely around 10Z. Storms may be severe with
wind gusts around 50 kts and large hail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK