175
FXUS63 KGLD 080612
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1212 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Saturday as
  cold front and upper disturbance move through the area. A few
  severe storms will be possible, mainly near the front, with
  wind and hail the main hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Ridging over the Desert Southwest will keep northwest flow in
place across the Central Plains through the short term period.
An embedded shortwave trough will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Otherwise, expecting dry and mild
conditions for today and Sunday.

Surface pattern on Saturday is somewhat messy and will play a
key role in where convection will develop. Models show an area
of low pressure developing in the Kansas/Nebraska border area
in response to the approaching shortwave with a trailing cold
front which will be the focus for convective initiation. Models
not in good agreement at this time with frontal position or
timing. At 21z, the expected time of initiation, one cluster of
model solutions, including NAMnest, GFS and ECMWF, have the low
just east of McCook with the front exiting the area to the
south; but there is another cluster of slower solutions,
including the HRRR and RFS, which show the low and front
further west and still in the area. These slower solutions would
result in a better chance for thunderstorms to develop in the
area near the front and low pressure, while the faster solutions
would have a lower chance. Environmental parameters are
marginally supportive for severe storms, with instability
somewhat limited at 500-1000 j/kg, perhaps locally enhanced
along and ahead of the front to 1200/j/kg, while deep layer
shear gradually increases from 30 kts in mid afternoon to 40 kts
by around 00z and through the evening. Models show isolated
storms possible even behind the front in the evening when shear
is strongest, but question remains on whether the instability
will be sufficient, and by 03z whatever instability is there
will be elevated. So while coverage is still somewhat
questionable and dependent on the frontal timing, whatever
storms do develop will be in an environment which could result
in a supercell capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. Tornado threat is low, with STP barely registering in the
slower solutions near the low pressure center and along the
front, suggesting a weak tornado if one did develop. Scattered
storms may linger into the overnight but with a diminished
severe threat as MUCAPE weakens.

While northwest flow continues on Sunday upper heights are
rising as ridge starts to nudge in from the west. Hard to find
much in the way of any embedded wave in the flow. Models are dry
and will keep it that way for now.

Temperature trends for the period will see near to slightly
above normal today (mostly 70s), above normal on Saturday (70s
and 80s), then cooling behind the front on Sunday to slightly
below normal (60s). Lows will range from the upper 30s to middle
40s, coldest in Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

For Monday and Tuesday, the ridge fully moves into the area
with the center of the wave over the Dakotas / Montana boarder.
The weather that will be brought with this system is warm
temperatures and drier conditions.

The high temperatures will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s.
However on Monday, there is a 10% chance of exceeding 90 degrees
for locations east of Hwy 83. The low temperatures look to hang
around the 40s. The wind gusts for this period stay in the
15-25 mph range. Overall RH values stay above 20%. The only
exception is Monday, where west of Hwy 27 they drop to the low
to mid teens. There is a 30-50% chance that Kit Carson and
Cheyenne Counties in CO see values less than 15%.

Wednesday and Thursday has a new upper pattern change begins with
the ridge moving out the region. Currently guidance has some
disagreement with on whether or not a trough will begin to
develop/strengthen and move east of the west coast off the CONUS.
This currently leaves some uncertainties up in the air with how
things will evolve.

The warm high temperatures remain Wednesday, with values in the mid
to upper 80s. The low temperatures do warm to 50s. There is a signal
for at least elevated fire concerns. Currently wind gusts are
showing signs of being above 35 mph with the probability of
exceeding being around 10-25%. Looking at RH values they remain in
the 20% range with some localized upper teens. GFDI values are
currently forecast to be "very high" which does lead to some concern
with fire spread potential. More investigation will be needed as we
move closer to the event as time moves on.

Thursday`s highs look to remain in the mid to upper 80s, with lows
in the 50s. RH values look to remain in the 20% range. Wind gust
however, don`t look to be as strong as Wednesday. There is some
signals that we could see an afternoon shower, but this depends on
what happens with our synoptic pattern and how that evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR expected to prevail for both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Virga showers will continue into the overnight with
bases around 10kft, but no impacts expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg/Holdren
AVIATION...024