543
FXUS63 KGLD 221114
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
514 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures in the 90s are forecast today before cooler
  temperatures move in this weekend and into the early next
  week.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms this evening
  generally north of Interstate 70 as showers and thunderstorms
  accompany a cold front. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is
  possible in northeast Colorado.

- Severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening in the
  Kansas and Colorado border area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The upper ridge holds through the afternoon with another hot day
on tap and highs in the low to mid 90s. A cold front is poised
to enter the area around 00z in southwest Nebraska and then
move through the rest of the area this evening. Scattered showers
and storms should develop fairly quickly early this evening
north of Interstate 70 along the front, with even better
coverage in northeast Colorado where post frontal storms will
move in from the west. There is a fairly narrow axis of weak to
moderate instability right along the frontal boundary as it
moves south. Deep layer shear of around 30 kts will overlap the
instability early in the evening primarily along the Highway 34
corridor from Yuma County through southwest Nebraska, but shear
decreases further south. There will be a window of opportunity
for a strong to marginally severe storm early to mid evening
generally north of Interstate 70 with the front and those
parameters in place. Wind gusts up to 60 mph and perhaps hail
up to quarters are the possible hazards, but overall confidence
in severe threat is low. There is also a low risk for heavy
rain/flooding in western portions of Kit Carson county and
perhaps southwest Yuma County where Palmer Divide enhanced
convection may spill over and there is a relative minimum in
storm motion (less than 10 kts through about 05z). Scattered
showers and isolated storms will continue through the overnight
with a decreasing threat for severe storms with MUCAPE less than
500 j/kg and shear less than 30 kts. Low temperatures will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today, most of the area will see temperatures in the mid 90s, but
some locations east of highway 83 could approach 100 degrees. Our
next cold front will be sweeping across the Northern Plains this
afternoon, but is expected to stall out in Nebraska, north of the
CWA. This will allow some showers and storms to form in western
Nebraska. There`s only about a 5% chance these storms will enter the
northern CWA. Best chance for precipitation looks to be between
00-10Z. Biggest hazards with these storms would be 50 MPH gusts
from a collapsing storm. Overnight tonight, lows are expected
to cool into the 60s under mostly clear skies.

Friday, the stalled cold front will start heading south again and
begin impacting the CWA as early as 15Z. By the time the front
reaches our area, it looks to have very weak winds and not a lot of
following CAA. The front is looks like it will stall out again
through most of the day, north of highway 36, potentially north of
highway 34, and start moving southward again around 0Z. This
will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s Friday,
which could promote some gusts around 20-30 kts to mix down.

Showers and storms are expected to follow the front Friday evening
into the overnight hours. Since the cold front is overall pretty
weak, most of the forcing looks to be coming from a 500 mb
shortwave, which looks to impact the area between 3-18Z Saturday.
This will give the area overnight storms, likely focused more on
Saturday morning. Most likely hazards at this time look to be hail
up to 1.25 inches and winds up to 65 MPH. There is also a risk for
flooding, but due to recent lack of precipitation over the past
multiple days, likelihood of nuisance flooding is only around
30% with the potential for flash flooding around 10%. Overnight
Friday, temperatures are forecast to cool into the upper 50s to
mid 60s, heavily depending on how quickly the storms move into
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Throughout the long-term, an upper-level high pressure system parked
over the Four Corners region will heavily influence the pattern
until Sunday evening, when it finally moves off to the southeast.
Saturday and Sunday, multiple trough axes stemming from a low in
central Canada will compete with the high pressure system, allowing
diurnal, potentially severe, convection to occur. By Sunday, most of
the area will have the potential for the troughs to force storms to
fire. Temperatures are expected to have a general cooling trend as
these troughs keep impacting us and the low inches to the southeast.
Saturday and Sunday, highs look to top out in the low to mid 80s.

Sunday evening, the low looks to move towards the Great Lakes region
as another, weak low moves over the northwestern CONUS. These lows
are expected to push the high pressure system down over Mexico, and
eventually over the Gulf. This will allow high temperatures to cool
down into the low 70s to mid 80s through Wednesday, while keeping
PoPs above 50 as we progress into northwesterly flow. Tuesday looks
to be the coolest day, currently forecast to have high temperatures
around 70 degrees for most of the area. However, there is a 35%
chance the low shifts farther to the northeast, and our high
temperatures bounce back into the mid to upper 70s. I`m also
noticing a bias in the NBM runs. The evening/night runs are
projecting cooler temperatures while the morning/daytime runs are
projecting slightly warmer temperatures. The cooler side is in the
low to mid 60s, while the warmer side is around 70.

Tuesday night, the low pressure system over the Great Lakes is
expected to push off to the east, allowing the high pressure system
to gradually build back into the Plains. Northwesterly flow looks to
continue throughout the rest of the week, meaning we can still
expect to see a generally unsettled pattern continue, but
temperatures will start warming back up. By next Thursday, 80s will
once again be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this
afternoon. A cold front will move through both terminals between
about 00-03Z this evening with a wind shift to the northeast.
Scattered thunderstorms may accompany the front, with a chance
for showers and isolated thunderstorms through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024