139
FXUS63 KGLD 300450
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and scattered late afternoon/evening
  thunderstorms are expected through the duration of the work
  week.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm to near average over the
  weekend, with highs around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Current observations show a surface low across a majority of
the area, with the center closer to the southern half of the
area. Meanwhile, there is some differential heating with parts
of Northern and Eastern Colorado in the 70s due to some
persistent low level cloud cover while the rest of the region is
in the 80s and 90s underneath sunny skies. For this afternoon,
the aforementioned conditions will likely set up some
convergence boundaries for storms to form.

The main boundary of note is the convergence zone along a
stationary front, near the center of the low. This boundary is
currently located roughly along Cheyenne county [CO], up to
Hitchcock county [NE] and then to the east. This boundary is not
forecast to move much and will generally be tied to the center
of the low. Looking at ensembles, if it were to shift, it would
shift a bit further east, taking the main wave more out of
Colorado. Wherever storms fire up along this boundary, pulse
storms that congeal fairly quickly are forecast as effective
shear remains forecast to be around 15-30 kts. With storms
unable to sustain and CAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg, large hail
looks to be unlikely. Small, accumulating hail and heavy rain
similar to most storms this year are likely, though the heavy
rain may be initially delayed the further east storms form due
to dewpoint depressions of 30+ degrees. This line will likely
initiate around 2pm MT/3pm CT, with the earliest around 12:30pm
MT. The sooner the line initiates, the more of the area that
will see storms. A sooner initation could also allow for larger
hail as guidance generally suggests that there would be more
CAPE the closer storms fire to the cooler and more moist air
(though mid level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km) would also be a
hindrance).

The other main line is the potential for storms to generally
develop along either the I-70 or Highway 40 corridor along a
moisture gradient as drier air is pulled in from the southwest.
The chance for this line isn`t as great as the other line along
the front, but would have the potential to be severe as well.
Hail doesn`t look to be likely due to lower instability (CAPE
1000 J/kg or less), but microbursts and maybe a landspout could
occur. The timing for this line is fairly similar with it
starting as early as 2pm MT / 3pm CT, but the more likely
initiation looks to be closer to 5pm CT (if it does initiate).

A third potential line is with the differential heating
boundary and usual higher terrain storms that form west of the
area. This line has the least likely chance to be severe as it
would likely move into an environment already stabilized by
prior storms. Still, will need to watch for some potential wind
gusts above 60 mph.

The other potential concern with all of these lines remains the
chance for flooding. Flooding chances still aren`t that great
(generally 30% or less for at least nuisance flooding),
especially if any of the line converge on each other. Flooding
would be more likely in the case of the lines staying apart,
allowing for multiple rounds of heavy rain, or if storms can
train on one of the boundaries that is forecast to develop.
Otherwise, the generally dry air near the surface and downshear
vectors of 20-25 kts should keep storms initially lighter and
moving enough to give most of the area just enough rain to be
beneficial, but not flood.

So in quick summary, multiple lines of storms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible, favoring
severe wind gusts, but maybe producing some large hail and a
landspout. Flooding is also possible, but would need storms to
move in a certain orientation and form in multiple rounds.

Late this evening and into tonight, some showers and maybe a
few storms could linger, but precipitation should end as the
surface low pushes south along with the upper forcing. The
chance for another cluster moving in from Western Nebraska has
lower to less than 10%. If that did develop, we could see a few
gusts to 60 mph in the northern part of the area closer to
sunrise. Otherwise, winds should shift to out of the south and
temperatures drop into the 60s.

Tomorrow, a cooler day with highs maxing out in the low to mid
80s is forecast as the upper low over the Great Lakes begins to
spin into the Plains and the northerly surface winds bring some
weak cold air advection. Low level cloud cover is also forecast
for the start of the day, which should help the day start a bit
cooler. May have to watch for some fog in the morning depending
on how much the storms saturate the low levels.

Tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours, there is a
chance for some storms to develop along the higher terrain to
the west and push east into the area. The main inhibitor is that
the higher surface pressure and colder air mass is forecast to
also be pushing into the area late in the day. If these storms
make it to the area, they may be able to produce a few strong
wind gusts as they are forecast to form into a line. Otherwise,
the higher pressure should push any storms south of the area and
keep us clearer. We would have cloud cover move over the area
in either scenario, keeping low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Thursday-Friday are forecast to remain a bit on the cooler side
with high temperatures in the 70`s through the mid 80s with the
upper trough over the Great Lakes region forecast to extend
into the Plains. With the higher pressure setting over the
Plains, winds are forecast to remain around 10-20 mph from the
east and then south. Chances and showers are forecast to
continue as the moist air mass remains in place with the
potential for shortwaves to bring some synoptic lift in during
the afternoon and evening hours. If the showers and storms form,
they would likely develop over the higher terrain in Colorado
and move east into the area.

Saturday-Sunday remain forecast to be warmer as the upper ridge
tries to reamplify over the Rockies while the low level flow
shifts to out of the south. With the warm air advection,
temperatures should warm to be more around 90. Storm chances
these days are a bit more variable as it depends on how
amplified the ridge to the west becomes and how close it can be
to the area. The more amplified and closer it is, the lower our
chances as we would have upper subsidence and be less likely to
be affected by shortwaves.

Early next week, the current forecast is for the pattern to be
similar to the weekend, but with more zonal flow. As long as the
zonal flow holds, temperatures should warm to the 90s with
afternoon/evening storm chances. However, there are hints of
either upper lows/troughs pushing into the Northern United
States both from the west and east. If the upper troughs/lows
can push closer to the area, then a more organized day of storms
and potential severe weather is likely. The area would also
then probably see temperatures cool similar to this mid-week
with highs in the 70s- 80s. If a system did move through, the
current forecast favors Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Convection has noticeably weakened and decreased in coverage
the past few hours (per radar/observational trends since 02Z).
Aside from a lingering potential for convection at either
terminal late this evening, VFR conditions will otherwise
prevail through the TAF period. Low forecast confidence with
regard to wind speed/direction. Aside from gusty and erratic
winds in vicinity of decaying convection and/or convective
remnants late this evening and Wednesday morning.. winds should,
on the whole, tend to be light/variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent