582
FXUS63 KGLD 281839
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1239 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE
  border counties between 5-11 pm MDT. Damaging winds are the
  primary hazard.

- A few severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
  evening, mainly in eastern Colorado and nearby Kansas and
  Nebraska border counties. Damaging winds would, once again, be
  the primary hazard.

- Afternoon and evening storms are possible through much of the
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A shortwave is emanating off of the Rockies and is forecast to
move onto the Plains and the CWA during the overnight hours.
315K isentropic surfaces on 00Z RAP and NAM both indicate
another boundary being located between Interstate 70 and Highway
36. Some flooding concerns may materialize with this especially
for those that saw heavier rain early today as PWATS remain
around 1.7 to 2 inches which is quite juicy for NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska. Corfidi vectors remain around 15-30 knots which isn`t
overly slow but could produce some nuisance flooding especially
with those PWATS. Water vapor imagery does show some dry air
remaining however north of I- 70 which could potentially shunt
the better coverage off to the south. Severe storms are not
likely but still can`t completely rule out a rogue 60-70 mph wet
microburst. The new storms may continue through the morning
hours Tuesday. If we dont`t get the coverage of storm currently
anticipated then the environment is setup for dense fog. Due to
the higher confidence in rainfall am leaving fog out of the
forecast for now.

Tuesday is forecast to be cooler than the past few days with closer
to the normal temperatures in the 90s as the high pressure moves to
the southwest. Shallow mixing and light winds will help prevent
drier air aloft falling to the surface resulting in another
muggy day across the area. I did bring up dew points a few
degrees due to this fact as well. Also nudged high temperatures
down a bit across the northeast as I have concerns about cloud
cover remaining thick through the day due to plethora of
moisture in place. Another shortwave is forecast to come off of
the Rockies during the afternoon hours Tuesday increasing again
our shower and storm potential. Majority of guidance does have
a cluster of storms moving into the Colorado counties. Damaging
winds and very heavy rain again appears to be primary threats
with high MUCAPE, DCAPE and microburst composites around 5.
Very high PWATS again around 1.7 to 2 is forecast along with
similar Corfidi Upshear and Downshear vectors of 20-30 knots.
Wind shear does appear to be a bit better than Monday with 0-6
bulk shear around 25-30 knots so some hail Still a bit high for
a flooding concern but with the PWATS some nuisance flooding may
again be on the table. Some guidance either has outflow getting
too far out ahead of the storms and weakening them as they
approaching the state line and others has the storms missing the
area entirely as the environment may not be able to recover
from the overnight storms. Currently am leaning towards the
storms at the minimum enter the CWA across eastern Colorado as
315K moisture remains in place. Currently think the storms will
make it to the Highway 27 corridor at the least as moisture
vectors should continue to keep the cluster healthy. Am a bit
concerned however about the fact that some guidance does show
the outflow coming out from it quicker than anticipated which
if is the case would end any severe and rain chances through the
night. Should we get the cluster of storm or the outflow we
will have to watch for blowing dust especially across eastern
Colorado who the smallest amounts of rain occurred.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

***Wednesday/Thursday***

A longwave ridge looks to still be overhead at 500-mb Wednesday
based on GEFS and EC ensemble guidance. At the same time, a
shortwave trough centered over California looks to begin moving
anticyclonically around the ridge. A surface low at the leading
edge of the trough is forecast to provide some showers and
thunderstorms in the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. The
best chances for precipitation are across portions of Eastern
Colorado, where NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 50-70%
chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Chances that these
thunderstorms become severe appear marginal at this time, as
LREF guidance and GFS/EC model soundings show 0-6 km shear
maxing out around 30 to 35 kts. The greatest threat with these
storms would be brief wind gusts around 60 mph, as GFS and
NAMNST soundings show the possibility of an inverted-V sounding
profile, favorable for microbursts. As the shortwave trough
moves east of the forecast area, chances for showers on Thursday
reduce dramatically. NBM precipitation guidance shows most of
the forecast area at less than a one in three chance to receive
greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Confidence in severe weather
occurring is highest on Wednesday, though is still only around
5-10%. High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday are
forecast in the 90s across the area.

***Friday/Saturday***

As the trough begins to move southeastward across the Midwest
Friday, a cold front may begin breaking down the upper level
ridge to the east of the forecast area. This will cause the
ridge axis to translate westward into the Four-Corners Region,
and establish approximately north-northwesterly flow over the
area at 500-mb. High temperatures could hover in the lower 90s
Friday and Saturday as this pattern favors northeasterly surface
flow. Precipitation chances continue to fall during this
period, as PoPs (probability of precipitation) fall below 15%
across nearly the entire area.

***Sunday/Monday***

Ensemble guidance supports another strong trough moving across
the Northern United States and Southern Canada Sunday. This
would once again bring the ridge axis over the forecast region,
but with a positively tilted orientation. Temperatures may rise
into the mid and upper 90s once again Sunday and Monday as this
occurs. Drier conditions are forecast as well, as GEFS 850-mb
height mean-spread guidance supports approximately southwesterly
surface flow under this pattern. Relative humidity (RH) values
may drop as low as the lower 20s on Sunday, and upper teens on
Monday. While these RHs are low, they do not meet critical fire
weather criteria (<15%). Additionally, NBM guidance suggests
that wind gusts have less than a 50% chance of exceeding 30 mph
across most of the area either day. The main exceptions are
portions of Northeastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska, where
there is up to a 70% chance. As such, the development of
critical fire weather conditions across this zone may be
something to keep an eye on, especially since fuels are drier
across these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

GLD: Light easterly or variable winds are expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Storms are
possible late this afternoon and evening, between ~02-06Z.
Confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage decreases
east of the CO-KS border, enough-so that explicit mention of
thunder will be confined to a PROB30 group with the 18Z TAF
issuance. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of
any showers/storms (including decaying convection or convective
remnants). With light winds and a very moist airmass over the
region, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visibilities with fog are
possible during the early morning hours (~08-14Z Wed). Very low
confidence in fog/stratus development.

MCK: Light easterly or variable winds are expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Storms cannot be
ruled-out this evening. Confidence in thunderstorm development
and coverage decreases considerably east of the CO-KS border,
enough-so that thunder is not explicitly mentioned with the 18Z
TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in
vicinity of any showers/storms (including decaying convection or
convective remnants). With light winds and a very moist airmass
over the region, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visibilities with fog
are possible during the early morning hours (~08-14Z Wed). Very
low confidence in fog/stratus development.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent