049
FXUS63 KGLD 090859
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
259 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms this afternoon and evening may produce winds up to 80
  MPH, 2 inch hail, and a brief tornado or two.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for eastern Colorado,
  thanks to a combination of dry conditions and winds gusting
  around 35-45 MPH.

- There is a low chance of blowing dust this afternoon and early
  evening.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
  well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and
  adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This morning, convection will be exiting the area early, before
sunrise. There is also a 50% chance patchy dense fog will form
across the Tri-State area this morning. The fog should be clearing
by 14-16Z.

The southwesterly flow aloft will be extending down to the surface
as a high over the southern U.S. and a low over the northwestern
CONUS continue to push into each other. At the surface, south-
southwesterly winds are expected throughout the day, increasing with
speed. Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-35 kts range, with the
strongest gusts in the western CWA. This will all temperatures to
warm to around 100 degrees. Maximum apparent temperatures in the
eastern CWA could warm to around 105 degrees.

These winds and temperatures are expected to bring drier air down to
the surface. This will lower RH values to the mid teens in eastern
Colorado, which is also reflected in the GFDI values. Due to high
confidence in prolonged critical fire weather conditions in eastern
Colorado, a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Areas east of the
Colorado border may see briefly critical fire weather conditions,
but are not expected to hit the magic three hours of sub-15% RH
values.

We are also expecting another round of storms to move through the
region this afternoon and evening. This will be triggered by the
southwesterly winds pushing a dryline farther east as a 500 mb
trough moves overhead. Storms look to start firing around 19-21Z in
eastern Colorado and quickly move to the east-northeast. Initial
hazards will be 60 MPH winds and 1 inch hail in eastern Colorado. As
these storms progress outside of Colorado, threats increase to
include winds up to 80 MPH, 2 inch hail, and a brief tornado or two.
The severe threat looks to end around 0-2Z with lingering scattered
showers lasting until around 6Z.

Between the strong winds before the storms and the potential
thunderstorm winds, there is a threat for blowing dust. Main threats
will be areas that see gusts higher than 35-40 kts in the afternoon
and early evening hours. However, this threat is limited by the
rainfall that occurred Monday afternoon and evening, and 2-2.5 lapse
rates are high. This would limit how much dirt is available to be
lofted and any dust that is lofted will likely not be kept near the
surface. As it stands, we cannot rule out isolated locations of near
brownout conditions, but visibility will generally be above 1 mile in
any blowing dust.

Overnight tomorrow, lows look to largely remain in the 60s, which
may promote 20 kts gusts continuing throughout most of the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The upper pattern on Wednesday has a 500 mb trough moving into the
region. There also looks to be some embedded shortwave disturbances
associated with the trough as well. Wedneday`s high temperatures do
show some concern with the highs potentially reaching the 100 degree
mark. The NBM and LREF, both are agreeing on there being around a 5-
10% chance for exceeding 100 degrees. This would mainly be for south
of Hwy 40. Currently they are forecast to be in the mid to high 90s.
There does look to be a cold front, possibly two, that look to move
through the area. Winds look to be from the west to northwest,
bringing dry conditions. Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-40 mph
range. One concern would be blowing dust. Currently there is some
signal for localized plumes mainly for west of KS Hwy 27. With the 2-
2.5 km lapse rates being higher than 6.5 C/km, this would allow for
the dust to mix out and present air quality issues.

There is some fire weather concern with Wednesday for the Colorado
Counties. There could be Critical Fire Weather may be present.
Looking at GFDI the values are 60+. For Western Kit Carson County
and Northwestern Cheyenne County, CO there are peak values up to 80.
This would be supportive of very high to extreme fire growth.
Relative Humidity (RH) values lower into the lower teens around 20Z
Wednesday to 0Z Thursday. The one variable is the gusts, the main
concern is will the peak gusts be in line with the lower RH values.
The EFI SOT table does show Wednesday with some indication of the
winds being higher than normal. Guidance is suggesting that there
could be portions of the afternoon where Red Flag conditions get
met. Both the NBM and LREF show about a 50-80% that they exceed 25
mph. Confidence as of right now is about a 30-40% for Red Flag
Conditions being met.


Thursday looks to "cool" down from prior day to the mid to high 80s,
with some localized low 90s. Winds look to remain from the north and
shift to from the east towards the evening. Gusts look to be in the
range of 25-40 mph. The peak time does look to be in the morning
hours. There is some disagreement on the location of the winds from
Guidance. The LREF currently favors east of KS Hwy 27 and the NBM
favors west of KS Hwy 27. During the peak winds the RH values are in
the 16-30% range. One thing to note is in the afternoon the values do
begin to decrease to the lower teens for the majority of the CWA. In
the morning there could be times where Elevated Fire weather could
be present. GFDI is also in the 50+ range, but this is also
dependent on where the peak gust occur.


The extended part of the forecast period. The weekend`s upper
pattern has a trough from the northern Rockies move into the region.
With the trough there looks to be some embedded shortwaves that
could bring up some precipitation chances. The trough does move
through fairly quickly and is out of the region come Saturday
morning and we transition to zonal flow. Sunday through Monday there
is another trough that begins to move through that could bring other
round of precip chances.

As for the highs Friday and Saturday look to be pretty similar.
Values are in the mid to high 80s, with some locations hitting 90.
There is one variable with the winds and our precipation chances.
There is currently some Guidance disagreement with whether or not we
will have a surface low, high, or we get sandwiches between both.
This will ultimately decide if our winds are from the south or north
and that will either bring moist or dry conditions. Currently PoPs
are having east of KS Hwy 83 10-20% chance for Friday, and 20-30%
for the whole CWA on Saturday.

Highs on Sunday and Monday, look to be pretty similar values are in
the mid to high 80s, with some locations hitting 90. Winds and Gusts
look to remain fairly calm for this period. As for precipitation
chances there is about a 20-40% chance of exceeding 0.01". Given
this is 6-7 days out, there is a fair amount that can change. With
that being said, NCAR AI Convective Hazard Forecast does show some
signal for severe weather being presently, to what extend time will
tell.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Storms are still moving through the area. VFR conditions look to
worsen to MVFR for KMCK and potentially down to minimums for
KGLD tonight. Conditions look to improve tomorrow morning and
southerly winds will increase in speed throughout the day.
Additional storms may move through the area tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...CA