302
FXUS63 KGLD 261117
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
517 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening
  in northeast Colorado and bordering counties in Kansas and
  Nebraska which will be capable of producing gusty winds.

- Much above normal temperatures starting today and continuing
  into early next week with heat indices of 100-105; warmest
  across Graham, Norton, Decatur, Sheridan and Gove.

- Cooler temperatures and thunderstorms will follow, midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas of fog will be possible early this morning east of a
McCook to Hill City line. Otherwise, expecting a mostly sunny
and hot day as an upper ridge begins to build over the area from
the southern plains. A shortwave trough rotating around the
periphery of the ridge will trigger a few thunderstorms in
northeast Colorado later this afternoon which may linger long
enough to make it into the bordering counties of Kansas and
Nebraska this evening before dissipating. Gusty winds can be
expected near any thunderstorm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the rest of the day, winds will be out of the south at less
than 10 mph with gusts around 15 mph; really easing off as high
pressure builds over the area. Some afternoon thunderstorms are
possible over the CO counties, and while a few isolated storms
could become strong to severe, widespread severe weather is not
expected. The better dynamics for strong to severe storms will
be isolated to the CO front range and will gradually lose steam
as they head east.

The main concern in the short term, and the long term will be
the gradually increasing heat. Temps today will be pleasantly in
the upper 80s and lower 90s but as we get into the weekend
we`re looking for a return to triple digit temperatures. Heat
advisory criteria may be possible come Sunday so if you have
plans outdoors this weekend, keep an eye on those temps!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The long term kicks off with temperatures still in the triple
digits as we start next week. Monday looks to be the hottest
day, though Tuesday doesn`t look much better. The heat lingers
until mid week, when a trough brings back showers and
thunderstorms to the area by Wednesday and breaking the heat
wave. While it`s still too early to say whether or not these
waves will have the potency to bring widespread severe weather
back to the CWA, the increase in Tds and lingering heat will
certainly be enough to generate a decent amount of instability.
Timing and shear values are on the lower confidence side so stay
tuned as we get closer to the middle of the week.

The reintroduction of PoPs to the forecast will help mitigate
the heat back down to a more reasonable level. High temperatures
should fall back into the mid to low 80s after the front moves
through on Wednesday with lows in the 60s. Rain is expected to
stick around in the forecast into next weekend as a
significantly wetter pattern than ones we`ve seen previously
sets up over the Great Plains.

High heat will bring a drop in our daily wind values. As the
front approaches Wednesday, we`ll see those synoptic winds pick
up as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will shift to the
ESE by Wednesday with gusts of 25+ returning to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Some minor visibility reductions will be possible at KMCK in
fog or mist through about 14z this morning. Otherwise, VFR
expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM...Vaughn
AVIATION...024