267
FXUS63 KGLD 060629
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1229 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with slight
  cool down Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday and
  Monday night. Winds are the primary threat, but may lead to
  blowing dust.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The next couple of days will be dominated by a 500 mb high over
Texas and a low over the northwestern CONUS, creating southwesterly
flow over the CWA. The high looks to be more in control at this
level, limiting the organized severe weather potential. Down at 850
mb, a high near the Great Lakes will extend an inverted ridge
southward as a low slowly moves over the northern Rockies. These
features will promote hot temperatures and late afternoon and
evening convection.

Early this morning, storms are moving across the northern parts of
the area. Some gusty winds may reach 65 MPH, hail up to 1 inch, and
localized flooding are possible from these storms, but not likely
(<20% chance). However, there is a 40-50% chance these storms
persist until sunrise, and a 20% chance they last into the mid-
morning. This lingering convection and associated cloud cover look
to keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still in
the mid 90s. The longer the storms and clouds last, the cooler it
will be. However, if the convection clears out before sunrise and we
have clear skies all day, expect mid to upper 90s across the CWA.

Additionally, the longer convection persists this morning, the less
of a chance there is for convection this afternoon and evening. If
convection is able to fire off this afternoon/evening, most likely
timing would be around 22-1Z. However, PoPs for this timeframe is
only around 20%. The hazards for convection this evening would be
very similar to aforementioned hazards with the early morning
convection. Convection looks to cease by 6Z with areas along and
west of KS 27 being the most likely areas for convection. Overnight
tonight, lows look to cool into the 60s to low 70s, and repeat
Monday night.

Monday, the 850 mb low looks to be moving over the Dakotas, leading
to a southwesterly LLJ over central Kansas. This will promote down-
slope warming and temperatures will likely climb into the upper 90s
with triple digit heat being possible east of KS 27. We could also
see gusts in the 30-40 kts range, which may lead to some blowing
dust. While dense blowing dust is not likely, the sky may become
hazy and air quality will worsen. We cannot rule out localized
plumes reducing visibility to under 1 mile, but confidence is less
than 10% in this occurring.

Late Monday afternoon and evening, that low over the Northern Plains
will push a cold front into the CWA. This looks to spark convection,
mainly in the northwestern CWA, around 22-02Z. The LLJ/high look to
stall out the front somewhere over the CWA, which will allow storm
to ride the boundary to the northeast. Inverted-V soundings are easy
to find along the boundary early on in the event, which favors a
wind threat. If the storms or the incoming front produce winds above
40 kts, blowing dust becomes likely, including a short-live haboob.
Shear is also low and low level lapse rates are around 10 C/km.
Along with the boundary that storms will move along, there is a
chance for landspouts. As the event progresses, the lower levels
will become more saturated and the inverted-V dissolves, leading
into a flooding threat. As it stands, the wind and dust threat is
most likely with the landspout and flooding threat being less
plausible. Ending timing could be anywhere from 6Z to 15Z the next
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A modest 60-75 kt jet streak at 500-mb looks to be located north
and east of the forecast region Wednesday morning, as a trough
sweeps through the Great Lakes Region. A surface low in the right
entrance region of this upper-level jet would be favored just to
the south of the area, providing northerly surface winds at the
start of the morning. These winds may gradually shift out of the
east throughout the day as a surface high moves east across the
Northern Plains. Even so, forecast highs are currently in the mid
80s to lower 90s, slightly cooler than recent days. Highs could be
hotter if the surface low does not develop as far south as
current guidance shows, or if the northerly to easterly winds
throughout the day are on the lighter side, allowing solar heating
to play a more prominent role in the high temperatures. This is
represented in the NBM 75th percentile temperatures, which reach
into the mid and upper 90s across southern portions of the County
Warning Area (CWA). There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Wednesday evening, and possibly lasting
into the overnight hours. Forecast guidance shows PoPs
(probability of precipitation) in the 20s and 30s across most of
the area during this period. However, NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance shows a 1 in 3 chance or less of receiving greater than
0.1 inches of rain for all areas in the CWA. The likelihood that
any storm becomes severe Wednesday evening is low, as LREF
guidance shows less than a 40% chance across the entire area that
sfc-500mb shear will exceed 30 kts. The best opportunity for
severe storms would be across portions of Southwest Nebraska,
where these probabilities are in the 30s. Even so, confidence that
severe weather occurs anywhere in the area Wednesday is 5% or
less at this time.

By Thursday morning, troughing is favored to be off to the west, as
ridging begins to move in overhead. Surface winds look to be out
of the south during this period, helping highs to stay in the
lower 90s across the area. Chances for precipitation begin to
decrease as well, with PoPs below 20% throughout the entire day.
If storms are able to develop, they would most likely be
associated with convergence across eastern parts of the area, or
from storms moving into portions of Eastern Colorado from the
Front Range. LREF guidance shows slightly better probabilities for
sfc-500mb wind shear greater than 30 kts as opposed to Wednesday,
but still under 50% across the forecast area. Once again,
confidence that severe weather occurs in the area Thursday is 5%
or less.

Forecast guidance begins to diverge on Friday. Ensemble guidance
seems to have the most confidence in a deep, longwave trough forming
across the Northeast. This could support an active weather pattern,
with multiple shortwave systems traversing the forecast area.
Depending on the timing of these shortwave features, high
temperatures between the mid 80s and upper 90s could be expected.
The higher end of this range would be more likely if the forecast
region were along the leading edge of a shortwave trough during
the afternoon, providing sufficient southwesterly flow for warmer
conditions. However, if a shortwave trough is directly overhead
during the afternoon, conditions may be cooler. Precipitation
continues to look unlikely during this period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Storms are expected to impact KMCK starting
around 730Z +/-45 minutes. Cannot rule out brief IFR
visibilities at KMCK if a heavy storms moves over, but it would
be fairly short lived. KGLD has a much lower chance at seeing
any precipitation before 10Z. Precipitation at KMCK looks to
leave around 10-13Z, then both sites will start getting stronger
south-southeasterly winds throughout the day. Would not be
surprised if we see occasional gusts up to 35 kts, but most
should be under 30 kts.

There is also a 10% chance of IFR stratus after the
precipitation, and a 10% chance of additional storms Sunday
evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA