400
FXUS63 KGLD 041138
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
538 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers, possibly a brief storm, may accompany a cold
  frontal passage late this afternoon and evening. Hazardous
  weather not expected.

- Cooler temperatures, pervasive cloud cover and periods of
  rain (heavy, at times) will follow, Monday night through
  Wednesday.

- Rain may mix with, or transition to, wet snow in eastern CO
  and adjacent KS border counties Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning. Accumulating wet snow is possible, mainly in eastern
  CO where air temperatures will hover around 32F.

- Light winds and a clearing trend may lead to sub-freezing
  temps and frost/freeze conditions Wed night-Thu morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Today: Expect conditions similar to yesterday (Sunday), with
highs in the mid 70`s to lower 80`s and minimum relative
humidity readings around 15-20% during the mid-afternoon. Very
light (5-10 mph) NW or variable winds will prevail through mid-
afternoon. Winds will abruptly shift to the NNE and increase to
~20-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph during the late afternoon and early
evening as a cold front surges southward through the region.
Current model guidance suggests that the frontal passage will
occur ~3-7 pm MDT, earliest (~3-5 pm MDT) near the CO-KS-NE
border and latest (~5-7 pm MDT) south of I-70. An influx of low-
level moisture with the front will rapidly send relative
humidity readings above 50%. With this in mind, no appreciable
fire weather concerns are expected. Marginal high-based
instability (~100-500 J/kg MUCAPE) could potentially support
high-based showers during the mid-late afternoon. Simulated
reflectivity forecasts via current (06Z 05/04) and recent runs
of the HRRR indicate little or no convective development (other
than high-based virga) in the Goodland CWA this afternoon.
Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current (06Z 05/04) and
recent runs of the NAM NEST continue to suggest that weak low-
level convergence within a broad lee trough over western KS will
assist in scattered shower development (possibly a brief storm) during
the early-mid afternoon, ~2-3 pm MDT (20-21Z), though.. this
scenario is predicated on morning dewpoints in the 30`s persisting
into the afternoon.. on a warm day with deep vertical mixing
(albeit with weak flow).. prior-to (in advance of) the
approaching front, which may be a bit unrealistic given the
pattern. For comparison, the HRRR indicates surface dewpoints
falling into the teens and 20`s prior to the frontal passage
this afternoon. Either way, hazardous weather is not expected.

Tonight-Tuesday: Cooler temperatures, pervasive cloud cover and
periods of rain will follow, late tonight into Tuesday. Expect
Tue morning lows in the mid 30`s to lower 40`s and relatively
little in the way of recovery during the afternoon, with highs
ranging from the mid 40`s to lower 50`s.

Brief Update (Tue Night-Wed): A rate-driven/assisted transition
from rain to wet snow may occur in eastern CO and nearby KS
border counties late Tue night into Wed morning. Accumulating
wet snow is possible, mainly at relatively higher elevations in
eastern CO where above-freezing thermal profiles will be
shallower (easier to `melt-out`) and surface temperatures more
likely to hover around, or just above, the freezing mark. If
rain transitions to heavy wet snow (and persists) early Wed
morning, reductions in visibility (below 1 mile) and melting
snow/slush on roads could lead to locally hazardous travel
conditions despite warm ground temperatures and light winds.
Further east in KS/NE, low temperatures ranging from 32-36F are
expected late Tue night/Wed morning. Widespread cloud cover and
rain (heavy, at times) are unfavorable for frost formation.

Brief Update (Wed night): Light winds and a clearing trend may
allow temperatures to fall below freezing (into the mid 20`s to
lower 30`s) late Wed night/Thu morning. Frost and/or a hard
freeze are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

***Synopsis***

High amplitude, positively tilted troughing in the upper levels
looks to lie just to the west of the forecast area Tuesday
morning. At the same time, northerly surface winds will be in
place after the passage of a cold front, in addition to a broad
convergence zone across Kansas associated with a slow- moving
surface low in Colorado. Ensemble guidance favors this pattern
to last through Wednesday evening when the troughing moves off
to the east and a split flow develops across the West Coast.
Consequentially, northwesterly flow is forecast to overspread
the area aloft starting Thursday, lasting through the end of the
period. Current guidance suggests that this pattern may persist
through the end of the forecast period.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

As troughing moves across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and
northerly surface flow remains, cooler conditions appear
favored. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-40s
to mid-50s, and low-40s to low-50s respectively. Additionally,
the convergence zone across Kansas looks to produce
precipitation across the CWA both days. NBM 48 hour
precipitation guidance suggests around a 50- 70% chance for
greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation across portions of
Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas
between Tuesday and Wednesday. This activity does not appear to
be convective, as LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater
for less than 100 J/kg of CAPE (instability) to be present.
Rather, this activity is favored to be driven synoptically by
low-level convergence, mid-level warming, and incoming cyclonic
motion aloft. As temperatures cool both nights, rain may
transition into snow, most particularly in counties along the
Eastern Colorado Border where below freezing temperatures may be
experienced overnight. Lows are currently forecast in the
upper-20s to mid-30s Tuesday, and mid- 20s to lower-30s
Wednesday. There is reason to believe that Wednesday`s low
temperatures may be lower than the current forecast due to cool,
wet, and cloudy conditions during the day, and cloud cover
clearing overnight. NBM 25th percentile low temperatures across
much of Eastern Colorado are in the lower-20s both days.
Confidence is increasing that a Freeze Watch will be needed, at
around 30-50% both days.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ensemble guidance indicates that northwesterly flow will
persist through the end of the forecast period. Several embedded
shortwave systems will have the opportunity to impact the
forecast area during this time. Current forecast guidance
suggests that warmer conditions are favored to return, with
highs in the low to mid-70s across most of the region Thursday,
Friday, and Sunday, and upper-70s to lower- 80s Saturday. A
couple of shortwave systems on Thursday and Friday may be
associated with showers. LREF guidance suggests as high as a 40%
chance for greater than 100 J/kg of CAPE across portions of
Eastern Colorado both days, whereas NBM suggests around a 20%
chance or less for all locations in the CWA for greater than
0.01 inches of rainfall from these showers. A stronger shortwave
may produce slightly stronger, more widespread showers on
Saturday, with LREF showing up to a 40% chance for more than 200
J/kg of CAPE, and up to a 20% chance from the NBM that greater
than 0.1 inches of rain occurs. Still, light rain from this
system seems to be the most likely scenario. Chances for showers
may continue on Sunday from embedded shortwave activity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR aviation conditions are expected through this afternoon.
Increasing winds are expected by the afternoon at KMCK and into
early evening at KGLD as a frontal system moves into the region.
Northeast gusts up to 25 knots are expected. Increasing clouds are
also anticipated as the front approaches, however, ceilings will
remain above 5000 feet until mid-evening. Light rain showers will
develop by mid to late evening resulting in reductions in visibility
and ceilings dropping as low as 4000 feet. Showers will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...LBF