137
FXUS63 KGLD 242310
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower visibilities tonight due to drizzle and fog. Some fog
  may be dense Sunday morning.

- Low confidence for isolated thunderstorms tonight, main risk
  is hail up to quarter size.

- Similar weather pattern on Sunday.

- Next active weather day maybe Wednesday then warmer, drier after
  that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis show a large area of
cloud cover over the Plains.  Rain activity has been ongoing for
most of the day so far north of the forecast area where the jet
stream is located.  Most of the drizzle and light rain today has
been on the nose of a low level jet over the middle of the forecast
area.  The drizzle has reduced visibility to a mile or so.

For the rest of the afternoon the low level jet nose may shift east,
causing the drizzle to expand that direction.

Model chances for rainfall continue to be too high due to the
favorable environment for drizzle.  As such have lowered chances for
precipitation for much of the forecast area through Sunday night.

Tonight the same weather pattern continues; isentropic lift, lift
along the low level jet nose, and associated upper level short wave
troughs all occur over the forecast area.  The saturated layer
persists, so continue to foresee drizzle being the main form of
precipitation.  The cap strengthens during the evening over the
forecast area, with elevated CAPE uncapped to the south of the
forecast area.  With this setup am not expecting any thunderstorm
activity.  However, did include a mention of isolated thunderstorms
in the event models have the elevated CAPE placed too far south.
Some models show another area of elevated storms forming over Gove
and Logan counties after midnight.  This was also shown last night
but did not happen, so am rather skeptical it will happen tonight.
Just in case, did include a mention of thunderstorms in the
forecast overnight for the southeast half of the forecast area.

Similar to last night, could see fog form again.  Confidence is high
visibility will fall to around a mile; especially since model
consensus has chances for rainfall increasing overnight.

Sunday will be the same as today; mainly a drizzle day with the
potential for an isolated thunderstorm.  Since no elevated
thunderstorms have formed today as was shown could happen with
yesterday`s data, am skeptical any thunderstorms will form.  Fog
should persist into the morning, then by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Sunday night looks to be a repeat of tonight, although confidence in
severe weather is very low.  Models continue to show the potential
for elevated CAPE that is not capped.  However am quite skeptical of
this being utilized given what has happened so far.  An upper level
short wave trough moves through during the evening, which may
increase precipitation potential.

After Sunday the upper level short wave trough to our west shifts
northeast across the Plains.  As it does so the forecast area will
transition to westerly then northwesterly upper level flow.  The
next opportunity for an active weather day may be Wednesday when a
somewhat stout upper level short wave trough moves through the
forecast area.

After Wednesday an upper level ridge moves in from the west.  This
may be the start of the warmer, drier weather that has been
predicted for this summer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Stratus continues across the area with MVFR conditions
currently present at KGLD, some clearing has occurred around
KMCK but should re-fill in shortly. Fog may become more of an
issue especially for KGLD as the sun sets and dew point
depressions already low; however rainfall may increase through
the evening which would limit fog until the rain moves out later
in the morning; how quickly this occurs will depend if dense
fog occurs or not. Rain does look to persist at KMCK a bit
longer which should help mitigate the fog concerns. Stratus
looks to continue through much of the day Sunday with showers
increasing again later in the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg