979
FXUS63 KGLD 070516
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers continue through the overnight and into Wednesday
  morning, most numerous south of Interstate 70, ending
  Wednesday night.

- Dry and seasonable to end the work week with warmer
  temperatures late this weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Showers continue through Wednesday night, rotating around the
slow moving upper low moving across southern Kansas. Some
instability redevelops Wednesday afternoon, but with the
pervasive cloud cover it will be very limited, but may be just
enough for a few lightning strikes. Additional rainfall amounts
through Wednesday night will range from T to tenth of an inch in
southwest Nebraska, a tenth to a half inch north of Interstate
70 in Kansas and Colorado, and a half to 1 inch south of
Interstate 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

An omega block remains situated across the CONUS. The western
low of the block is the main driver for the region and will
slowly move to the east increasing lift for the area. 700 mb
upslope winds are forecast to strengthen through the day today
proving additional lift for the forecast area and will be the
main source for rainfall for the majority of the CWA.
Anticipating a gradual increase in coverage as the morning goes
on and especially this evening as low level jet develops with
the CWA in the nose vicinity of the jet where I wouldn`t be
surprised if a corridor of moderate the potential heavier rain
develops. Thinking this corridor will be relatively narrow which
I believe is where some of the higher rainfall amounts in
ensemble members is coming from; essentially this may be similar
to a snowband where a large gradient in amounts looks to be
present. Still don`t think flooding will be an issue other than
some potential street flooding if this band sets up over a town
as PWAT values of 0.75-0.9 inches looks to be in place and
Corfidi downshear and upshear values not overly slow. At this
time the potential location for this heavier band looks to be in
between I70 and Highway 40. Further north, rainfall amounts
look to be lesser due to less forcing and weaker upslope flow;
any measurable rainfall may come Wednesday when rainfall may be
more convective in nature but more scattered. Overall forecast
rainfall amounts remain on track from what was seen yesterday
with 1-1.5 inches to the south and a few hundredths to a tenth
of an inch to the north. In between those areas amounts of 0.25
to 0.75 are currently forecast but a narrow band of amounts
exceeding 1 inch is possible.

Wednesday, rainfall is forecast to continue through the morning
hours as the low moves eastward roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma
state line. Dry air looks to be more of an issue as the morning and
afternoon goes on which may lead to some breaks in the clouds. There
will still be however enough upslope lift to create some scattered
showers/storms across the area. The storm potential is the iffy
portion of this forecast as guidance is all over the place on how
much and if we will have any instability to work with. If we can get
enough clearing then instability will be higher around 300-500 j/kg
of MUCAPE which may lead to some shorter lived strong storms capable
of small hail and downburst winds up to 45 mph. Severe weather even
in the form of downburst winds are not currently anticipated
due to still saturated atmospheric profiles and meager Corfidi
upshear and downshear vectors. Rainfall is then forecast to
slowly come to an end. High temperatures for the day are
forecast to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s but may be a little
warmer if breaks in the clouds are more frequent or longer
lasting.

Wednesday night clouds are forecast to become less frequent in wake
of the low as drier air moves in. Winds are also forecast to become
lighter which may support the potential for a few hours of
temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s across eastern
Colorado. We are fairly close to the average last freeze for the
area which also supports the potential for more impacts to sensitive
vegetation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Split flow then reigns Thursday and into the weekend for the area as
we gradually begin a warming trend. Eastern portions of the area may
see some lingering showers or storms across the east  Dry conditions
are currently forecast but we may need to keep an eye out for some
diurnal convection coming off of the Front Range and the Palmer
Divide each afternoon. Due to the lack of flow across the area winds
are also forecast to remain light from roughly the ESE for the
duration of the period. With this said this is also the
climatological favored direction for fog and stratus; depending on
the amount of rainfall that is received over the next 36 hours
the boundary layer should be fairly saturated where fog each
morning may be possible.

Weak mid level ridging is forecast to develop over the region this
weekend leading to a warming trend with highs in the 80s to
potentially low 90s and overnight lows remaining in the 40s to 50s.
Sunday is then forecast to see a surface trough move into northwest
portions of the area bringing with it gusty winds up to 40 mph.
With the warm temperatures may need to keep an eye on some fire
weather potential with this but will be completely dependent on
how fuels react to this rainfall and whether or not they are
able to dry out again.

The start of the new work week may again see a return to a more
active pattern as troughing begins to develop off of the Pacific
coast and other small surface lows develop off of the Rockies. Warm
to potentially hot temperatures may be on the table with a better
signal for 90s across the area starting Tuesday. Fire weather
concerns may again be on the table Monday and Tuesday but again will
see how fuels respond to the rain over the next 36 hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

AT KGLD...IFR expected to prevail overnight and into Wednesday
morning with occasional light rain showers. A return to VFR
expected to occur by 18z Wednesday with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the remainder of the period.

AT KMCK...VFR expected to prevail, but a brief shower cannot be
completely ruled out through the overnight and much of
Wednesday. However, isolated nature of this activity further
north precludes any mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024